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HAWAII
Three groups consider ads to try to trim president's edge
By Glen Johnson, Globe Staff | October 26, 2004
WASHINGTON -- A pair of polls indicating that President Bush was slightly ahead of Senator John F. Kerry in traditionally Democratic Hawaii is prompting three independent groups that have been supporting the Democrat to consider advertising in a state whose four Electoral College votes equal that of hotly contested Maine and New Hampshire.
The Media Fund, MoveOn.org, and possibly Americans Coming Together, are expected to announce as early as today an array of activity, with the first likely to broadcast radio ads, the second possibly airing television spots, and the third possibly joining in the TV ads, according to high-level figures at the groups.
"We're all trying to figure out is this real or not," said one of the group leaders who spoke on the condition of anonymity. "Hopefully if we put a little bit of money there -- where there hasn't been any spent -- we can shore things up."
A poll published Sunday in the Honolulu Star-Bulletin indicated that
Bush was at 46 percent and Kerry at 45.4 percent. The survey of 559 likely voters, conducted Oct. 17-20, had a margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points. A similar survey in August suggested Kerry had a seven-point lead.
The Hawaii Poll, taken among 600 likely voters statewide Oct. 13-18 and published in the Honolulu Advertiser on Saturday, indicated that
Bush had a 43.3 percent lead over Kerry's 42.6 percent. The survey had a margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points.
As with the rival poll, Bush's slight edge was a surprise given that
Hawaii has supported a Republican presidential candidate only three times since becoming part of the United States in 1959.
On two of the occasions -- in 1972 with Richard M. Nixon and in 1984 with Ronald Reagan --
it did so when a Republican candidate was seeking reelection, as is Bush this year. On the third, the state voted for Nixon in 1960 over Democrat John F. Kennedy, but the final margin was narrow -- 92,505 votes to 92,364 votes, according to the Hawaii secretary of state's office.
The surveys also found a relatively large number of undecided voters, 9 percent for the Star-Bulletin and 12 percent for the Hawaii Poll. This offers fertile ground for both campaigns as they battle across the country for every possible vote.
At the moment, the Kerry campaign has no plans to advertise in Hawaii. Officials believe that the Hawaii poll's showing for Bush, 43 percent, represents the peak vote the president will attain in the state.
"I don't think the president's vote in the end will ever get higher than his highest horse race number," Kerry adviser Tad Devine told reporters Sunday during a conference call.
Steve Schmidt, spokesman for the Bush-Cheney campaign, said the campaign has yet to decide if it will begin advertising in Hawaii. "We're aware of the polling out there. We're keeping a very close eye on it as we move down the stretch," Schmidt said.
Hawaii has an all-Democratic congressional delegation, and Democrats have controlled both chambers of the Legislature since before statehood. In the 2000 presidential race, Democrat Al Gore beat Bush in the state by 18 points. In 2002, though, voters picked a Republican governor, Linda Lingle. She is the first person from her party to hold that office in 40 years.
In the current campaign, neither Bush nor Kerry has campaigned in Hawaii, but the president has lavished Lingle with praise and invited her aboard Air Force One for part of a campaign swing on the US mainland.
The independent political committees, known as "527s" for the section of the federal tax code under which they operate, have been analyzing the poll findings and talking with Democrats in Hawaii to assess the true state of the race, as well as whether and how to respond.
Officials at the groups have decided that it is too late for Americans Coming Together to build a field organization in Hawaii, as it has in other mainland battleground states, so they are near agreement on launching an ad campaign.
One official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, speculated that Bush is benefiting in Hawaii, as he may be in New Jersey, from the spillover effect of ads airing on national cable television.
The Bush campaign has "had real persuasion TV, and the Kerry campaign has not," said the official, noting the Kerry campaign has focused its ad budget on local stations in battleground states.
Glen Johnson can be reached at
[email protected].
© Copyright 2004 Globe Newspaper Company.
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