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I would put Detroit and Phoenix ahead of the Spurs
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/14856130/
It could be the year of NBA longshots
LeBron’s Cavs figure to challenge Wade’s Heat for 2007 le
The Sporting News' Sean Deveney says LeBron James and the Cavs are one of the longshots who could win the 2007 NBA le.
OPINION
By Sean Deveney
Updated: 2:08 p.m. CT Sept 16, 2006
Sean Deveney
Being a law-abiding and moral citizen, I would never condone peeking at the vast array of gambling Web sites and established sports books out there for anything other than recreational purposes. I, for one, favor handshake wagers, not kneecap wagers. From time to time, though, my browser wanders to a real-money website or two, just as my body sometimes wanders (involuntarily) to the sports book at Bellagio.
My browser made the journey this morning, for example. The reason was legit. See, I know what I think of the upcoming NBA season. Thanks to blogs and emails, I know what you folks think about the season, too. But when it comes to money-where-your-mouth-is reality, you can't beat Vegas. Or, in this case, cyber-Vegas. These people stake their livelihoods on getting the odds just right. Seems worth it to see what they think.
Not surprisingly, there are four clear favorites to win the championship. There are four other teams ranked at 12-1 odds or shorter. After that, you're looking at a bunch of 20-1 longshots.
But, couldn't this be the year of the longshot? Obviously, the favorites gained that status for a reason. A closer look, though, reveals holes a-plenty.
1. Miami. (Listed in the 4-1 range)
The Heat caught a bit of postseason magic, thanks to Dwyane Wade. Remember, Miami looked terrible in the opening games of the Finals before Wade simply took over. For a few weeks last spring, he played like Michael Jordan --maybe not with the same talent, but certainly with the same determination and will to win.
But Jordan did that year after year. We don't know yet if Wade can do it, and, with the pummeling he took over the course of last season, it'll be tough for him to stay healthy through another championship run.
He has a supporting cast of veterans who might be less motivated now that they've gotten their Miami rings, so Wade figures to have a stiffer challenge this year.
2. Dallas. (Also listed around 4-1)
The Mavericks sure look like a championship team. They have talent, depth and good coaching. They have a superstar, Dirk Nowitzki, in his prime. They made some alterations, adding veteran reserve point guard Anthony Johnson, plus bit-part vets Devean George and Austin Croshere.
But, last year, coach Avery Johnson continuously referred to his desire for his team to play, "playground basketball." That translates into something like this: "We're not tough enough." That's been the Mavs' weak spot throughout the Nowitzki era, and I don't know that Johnson can coach them into toughness.
3. San Antonio. (Listed pretty consistently at 9-2)
Most of us in the media focused on the Spurs' age as a primary reason for their loss to the Mavericks last postseason. And most of us were wrong. It wasn't age that was the problem for the Spurs; it was versatility.
They lacked players who combined size and quickness, guys who can keep pace with non-traditional big men like Nowitzki or Brad Miller. The Spurs did well to address the issue economically by acquiring lower-tier players like Francisco Elson, Jackie Butler, Eric Williams and Matt Bonner, dumping lead-footed Rasho Nesterovic and Nazr Mohammed in the process. Problem is, the Spurs will have to make changes to their defensive scheme, which is designed to funnel the ball toward Tim Duncan and (go back in time with me here) David Robinson. Nesterovic and Mohammed were not Robinson, but they were, at least, 7-foot shot-blockers. Elson and Butler are not shot-blocking threats.
Thus, the Spurs are going to have to seriously alter the defensive scheme that has been such an integral part of their success.
4. Phoenix. (Odds are anywhere from 9-2 to 6-1)
Amare Stoudemire. That's pretty much all we need to say about the Suns' chances at a championship. If he is healthy, Phoenix might well be the favorite. But microfracture surgery is a doozy, and there is the possibility that Stoudemire will never quite be the same.
Suppose he isn't, and suppose Boris Diaw and Kurt Thomas deserve to start ahead of him. Will the Suns kowtow to the oft-prickly Stoudemire? And if they do, what will happen to the great chemistry they've established?
5. Detroit. (Listed around 7-1)
In the long run, the Pistons did the right thing in not bringing Ben Wallace back, but it certainly makes things tenuous in the short run. This will have to be a more offensive-minded team, something the Pistons tried last year with great regular-season success and miserable postseason failure.
As much as players respect Wallace, they still back coach Flip Saunders and they still have the talent for a le run. They just look less imposing.
6. Chicago. (All over the place, from 7-1 to 25-1)
Wallace and P.J. Brown figure to be the short-term answer for the young Bulls. They'll defend, they'll rebound, they'll lead in the locker room. The Bulls are a legitimate contender, but the offense is a big question.
Their scoring tends to come from their guards -- Ben Gordon, Kirk Hinrich -- who are streaky. Small forwards Luol Deng and Andres Nocioni don't post up as much as they should. That means their post scoring is going to have to come from Wallace, who is simply not very good with the ball, and Brown, who has a career scoring average of just 9.4 points per game.
7. Cleveland. (In the 10-1 to 12-1 range)
Until Larry Hughes finds a comfortable role, this is still a one-man team. It helps that the man in question is LeBron James, of course, but the Cavs have questions in every other area. Their point guards are Eric Snow, Damon Jones, David Wesley and Daniel Gibson.
Ouch.
They're still not quite sure what they have in Drew Gooden, who averaged a career-low 10.7 points last year. They're hoping for good things from rookie Shannon Brown, but they did little else to ease depth and perimeter shooting worries.
8. New Jersey. (Between 12-1 and 15-1)
Bringing in rookie Marcus Williams could pay off right away, but the Nets' primary problem is the frontcourt, which features too much of soon-to-be-40 forward Puff Robinson. They brought in 22-year-old rookie Mile Ilic, but he's not likely to help right away. It looks like the Nets will have Nenad Krstic, Robinson and Jason Collins, which is a pretty serious problem.
Those are the top contenders, but there isn't one I'd put my mortgage on. Or even your mortgage. These teams are good, but you don't get a sense of greatness here, which leaves this thing open for longshots.
Hmm. Clippers at 30-1? Jazz at 75-1? Hornets at 80-1?
I sure hope this is the year of the longshot.
I would put Detroit and Phoenix ahead of the Spurs
Sure you would Louis
Of course you would. That is why you are a Rockettes fan.
You mean those same Rockets that couldn't even beat us in the last game of the season when we rested TD and TP? The ones whose fans talk smack about the Spurs and can't accept that they have been dismissed as serious rival?where are the rockets
Let me tell you, after living here in Houston for almost 4 years, I can say with authority that these are the most frontrunning-est fans that I have ever met. There is a reason that Houston is not known as a great sports town, and a good part of it is based on their fans.
Yeah same team without Yao and Tmac
Dumb-ass!
And of course your are not longer the best team in Texas...
Well, considering that you couldn't keep both of them in the lineup together for even half of your games, you should have been used to playing without them. But whatever excuse you need to say that your 34-48 team was championship calibre without all the injuries.
Injuries, my friend injuries...Don't be an IDIOT!
Dallas will kick your sorry ass next season...
injuries happen to all teams. genius. that is no excuse that Rockets suck ass.
Face it. Rockets besides their injuries have NO HEART.
yeah but they know how to repeat
Sounds like you are repeating what was said to your team about 10 years ago
Like I said, they know how to win back to back, something your underachieving team don't
How sad is it that a Rockettes fan is talking smack about the Mavs beating us next season?
btw, on rockets.com there is a poll regarding who will win the SW Division this year. Yep, 69% of the 5,000 votes say the Rockettes will win the division. Of course, I think they were confused and thought it asked who would win the division if their star players did not miss massive amounts of games because of injuries.
Just hope Yao and Tmac are 100%
Who will stop Yao?
Elson?
Bwahahahahahaha
with Yao and tmac at 100% the rockets will be gone after the 1st round of the playoffs. book it
last time I checked, there were no special championships awarded based on consecutive years, especially when it occured during the Jordan Gambling Ban Era.
2 is still 2.
3 is still 3.
Deal with it.
Hope is about all you have if your looking for 100% from both of them.
I was in Houston when it happened and you would have thought the guy was bringing the cure for cancer with him. They had commercials running around the damn clock with a sound bite from his introduction press conference where he said "something special was going to happen for the Rockets."
They'll be lucky to get 82 games combined from Yao and McGrady, they still don't have anything resembling a point guard, and they don't have a bench.
As for the original article, I think we are legally obligated to be outraged that the Mavericks are ahead of the Spurs, even if it is a fairly reasonable statement.
We should think of making Rocketstalk so mentally-re ed people could join too
Raw-kutz.kahmWe should think of making Rocketstalk so mentally-re ed people could join too
"Where it's ALWAYS 1994-95!"
And do you suppose will stop Manu, Duncan, and Tony?
Bwahahahahahaha
I am going to say this much. Until we beat them again in a 7 game series (I hate saying this but its true) the Mavs have scoreboard. I honestly dont know what to think of these offseason moves (not calling them a downer just have to see it on the court). Here are some concerns I am curious about for the upcoming season:
1.)If Pop stays true to the team we truly are and dont use small ball (I would rather us lose a series staying true to ourselves rather then being something we arent).
2.) If we become the physical/defensive team that we werent anything close to in last years semis. Our defense was a joke in the semis and the Mavs got what they wanted when they wanted it.
3.) If we can prove to be a great comeback team (last year outside of game 7 and a few other games whenever we went down by 16 points or more the game was already over). We would somewhat make it interesting but werent good enough to make a big ralley. If we did make a comeback and retake the lead we wouldnt hold onto it for long and end up losing the game still.
4.)Health,chemistry, clutch factor, and luck as well is what is needed if we are to have a great shot to get back to glory.
Until then, the Heat are the team to beat in the NBA and East while the Mavs are the team to beat in the West.
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