I think the fact that Webb pitched so well for such a bad team is what will put him over the top. He won more games than Carpenter did; their ERAs are indistinguishable; their WHIP's are close; and, as Jayson Stark noted in arguing that Webb should win, Webb had better peripherals:
Stark Awards Column
If I had a vote, I'd cast it for Webb.
As for other awards:
AL Cy Young for Johan Santana is about the biggest no-brainer since the year that Iverson stole one vote from Shaq for NBA MVP.
AL MVP -- I'd usually be inclined to go with Morneau, but with all of the turmoil that has surrounded the Yankees along the way this season, and in a nod to career achievements, I think I'd vote for Derek Jeter.
NL MVP -- If Ryan Howard had maintained his torrid pace through the end of September and the Phillies had reached the playoffs, he'd be a no-brainer too. I think Howard is a fantastic choice still, because when the Phillies were given up for dead at the trade deadline, Howard single-handedly carried them back into contention, all the way through the season's final weekend. Still, it's hard to turn away Pujols' numbers and the fact that his team actually managed to reach the playoffs. And I think Lance Berkman may have been the guy who may have been most valuable to his team this year but has no chance of winning. Push comes to shove, I go with Howard by a nose.
AL Rookie of the Year -- Had Liriano stayed healthy and pitched the Twins into the playoffs, he's the winner I think. Had Weaver pitched the Angels into the playoffs, he's near the top of the balloting. But, Verlander stayed healthy and played a vital role in the Tigers' resurgence this year, so I think it's Verlander's award fair and square.
NL Rookie of the Year -- the Florida kids (Uggla, Ramirez, Johnson) deserve some attention for their contributions to that team's surprising run into September. But in the end, I like Ryan Zimmerman.
AL Manager of the Year -- Leyland, but Gardenhire deserves a lot of attention as well.
NL Manager of the Year -- if Joe Girardi doesn't win, there should be an investigation.

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