Hollinger's Team Forecast: San Antonio SpursBy John Hollinger
ESPN Insider
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Last season San Antonio never gave you the impression that it was destined to repeat as NBA champion. Franchise icon Tim Duncan struggled with plantar fasciitis for much of the season and posted career lows in points, rebounds, blocks and shooting percentage, while star wingman Manu Ginobili missed 17 games with a variety of ailments and couldn't reproduce the magic of his stellar 2004-05 campaign. Ultimately the Spurs fell short when Dallas knocked them out in a tightly contested seven-game series in the Western Conference semifinals.
It's a testament to the depth and compe iveness of the Spurs that they were in position to repeat as champs despite injuries to their two best players. Tony Parker took a huge step forward and made his first All-Star team, and San Antonio got solid contributions from 10 different players. As a result, the Spurs set a franchise record for wins, put up the best record in the West at 63-19, and were once again No. 1 in defensive efficiency.
Defensive Efficiency Leaders, 2005-06
Team Def. Eff.
San Antonio 96.9
Memphis 99.2
New Jersey 99.8
Indiana 99.9
Detroit 100.2
It was the fifth time in six years under coach Gregg Popovich that San Antonio had the league's best defense. Thanks to the length of Duncan and Rasho Nesterovic inside and the quickness and grit of Bruce Bowen and the underrated Parker on the perimeter, San Antonio was difficult to beat from any part of the floor.
San Antonio's broad-based defensive excellence was easily seen if you break down defense into its component parts. In seven of the eight important metrics -- field-goal percentage, 3-point percentage, free-throw rate, 3-point rate, assist rate, rebounding, and shot-blocking -- the Spurs were well above average. Their only middling effort came in forcing turnovers, where their opponents coughed it up slightly less than the league average.
The Spurs were particularly tough to make a 3-pointer or get an assist against, which is an indication of what great individual defenders they had on the floor. Most assisted baskets and 3-pointers come because a player is beaten and needs help, or because an overmatched defender requires a double-team from a teammate. With the players San Antonio had, that rarely happened. As a result, opponents only took 13.8 percent of their shots beyond the 3-point line, which easily led the league (see chart). Plus, the Spurs permitted assists on just 48 percent of opponent baskets -- only Phoenix did better.
Opponent 3-point attempts per field-goal attempt
Team 3A/FGA
San Antonio .138
Detroit .157
Indiana .167
Dallas .176
Atlanta .185
Ironically, defense was San Antonio's undoing in the playoffs. Dallas went to a small lineup that forced the Spurs to mothball Nesterovic, Nazr Mohammed and Robert Horry for most of the series and play Michael Finley as an undersized power forward. As a result, the Mavs scored as easily as any Spur opponent in the past half-decade.
The Spurs weren't shabby on offense either, ranking ninth overall in offensive efficiency. Although the Spurs' three best players aren't 3-point shooters, they created enough opportunities for everyone else that San Antonio ranked second in the NBA at 38.5 percent from long range. The team ranked third overall in field-goal percentage -- boosted greatly by Parker shooting a scorching 54.8 percent from the point.
The one area where San Antonio really struggled was behind Parker. Normally backup point guards don't have much impact on a club's results, but this was a rare exception where a decision on a secondary player might have cost a team a championship. Nick Van Exel was so terrible that he almost certainly was the difference between winning and losing the conference semifinals against Dallas, and an organization as smart as the Spurs really should have known better than to rely on him.
First, a little background is in order. Because of rookie Beno Udrih's troubles in the 2004-05 Finals against Detroit, the Spurs decided to get a veteran backup point guard that offseason. This was the first mistake -- Udrih had a solid rookie campaign otherwise, and two bad games against Detroit shouldn't have swung their opinion of him so sharply.
Barry Gossage/Getty Images
Tony Parker was the Spurs' surprise MVP last season.It got worse when the Spurs took a shine to Van Exel, citing his clutch shot-making against them in the 2003 Western Conference Finals as one reason. The Spurs might have been romanticizing the past a bit -- yes, Nick hit some big shots in that series, but all told he shot 37.1 percent, and had 17 turnovers in six games. More importantly, it happened three years earlier -- eons in the scope of a basketball player's career -- and the 34-year-old Van Exel had diminished a good deal since as a result of his aching knees.
In fact, on any rational basis this decision was completely indefensible. Van Exel had little defensive value, shot erratically, and based on his numbers a year earlier in Portland he was barely marginal as an NBA player. Udrih, meanwhile, had played fairly well in 2004-05 and figured to do better with a year under his belt. Predictably, Udrih did exactly that in the minutes he played, posting a solid 15.21 player efficiency rating, while Van Exel limped to 39.7 percent shooting mark and a miserable 10.96 PER.
Van Exel played poorly enough during the season that it was a bit shocking to see San Antonio keep him in the rotation during the playoffs. Predictably, he was just as bad. Not only were the stats hideous (21.9 percent, 2.2 ppg), but he was even worse on defense than offense. The lowlight came in the fourth quarter of Game 4 against Dallas. On consecutive plays, Van Exel went under a pick against the screen-and-roll, but was still so slow getting to the other side that his man beat him to the basket for a layup and got a foul from Van Exel as the bonus.
I'm not sure there's any way else to put this -- in opting for a faded Van Exel instead of the younger, more talented Udrih, the Spurs essentially sacrificed a championship at the altar of veteran leadership.
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OFFSEASON MOVES
With a rare summer in which no foreign players figured in their offseason haul, the Spurs were left to the traditional route of trades and free agency, and they were fairly busy:
Bonner
• Traded Nesterovic and cash to Toronto for Matt Bonner, Eric Williams and a 2009 second-round pick. Mostly a salary dump by San Antonio, the cash was sent along to ease the Raptors' pain in absorbing Rasho's deal. Bonner's skills overlap a bit with Horry's, but he makes a good hedge against age and is an even better 3-point shooter. Don't be shocked if he's effective as the backup center, playing alongside Duncan for 10 minutes a night off the bench. The challenge will be figuring out how to hide him on defense. As for Williams, he won't play much but his expiring contract might be a factor at the trade deadline.
Butler
• Signed Jackie Butler, lost Mohammed. The Spurs might love Isiah Thomas even more than the Bulls do. First he took on Malik Rose's contract and gave them Mohammed -- they don't win the le in 2005 without that deal. Now they lose Mohammed as a free agent, but swipe Butler from New York for peanuts. This was hands down the best free-agent signing of 2006 -- Butler is a potential stud and yet the free-spending Knicks let him walk rather than match a three-year, $7 million offer sheet. Look at the deals mediocre centers are getting around the league and then check that price tag again. The dude is 21 and really can score -- he'll be better than either Mohammed or Rasho and cost about a quarter as much.
Elson
• Signed Francisco Elson, lost Sean Marks. Marks had no value other than as a clubhouse guy, but Elson was another cheap free-agent center who can play a little. I emphasize "a little" -- he's a third center type who helps defensively as long as he doesn't have to put a body on anyone. But you have to be impressed with a team that replaced two centers making a combined $12 million a year with two that make half as much, and not appear any worse for it.
• Signed Jacque Vaughn, lost Van Exel. They only had the veteran's minimum left after they got the two centers, so this was the best they could do in the backcourt. It was a direct reaction to the Dallas series, as a defensive guard like Vaughn would have been mighty helpful against Jason Terry and Devin Harris. Vaughn is completely worthless offensively, though, so he's a No. 3 point guard.
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BIGGEST STRENGTH
AP Photo
Pop and the Spurs act as one.The organization. Welcome to Mayberry. San Antonio is a fairy-tale place where everybody in the locker room gets along, the players are genuinely likable, and nobody feels the slightest sense of en lement because he's in the NBA. That might be a bit of an exaggeration, but not by much. There's no question this club has the best chemistry in the league.
That chemistry didn't happen by accident -- it's the result of a methodical, yet at times brilliant, approach to building a roster. The Spurs remain the gold standard for a professional basketball organization, not only winning with class but managing the cap with clinical precision. As a result they routinely beat the snot out of their rivals without spending a penny of luxury tax. (That might change this season, but of course, the Spurs have logic on their side -- tax payments are likely to be unusually low this year.)
What's particularly impressive is San Antonio's focus on finding and developing young players, giving the team a long-term compe ive advantage by continually replenishing the roster. The Butler heist is one example, but an even better one is San Antonio's trend of drafting European players in the second round of the draft and letting them develop overseas on somebody else's dime.
Ginobili was the first example of this, but the Spurs still have a veritable AAA team playing in Europe right now -- Argentine forward Luis Scola and Lithuanian center Robertas Javtokas are NBA-quality players, while French center Ian Mahinmi and Georgian forward Viktor Sanikidze aren't there yet but are young enough to improve significantly from here forward.
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BIGGEST WEAKNESS
Free throws. OK, this one isn't exactly a state secret. Everyone knows that Duncan struggles from the line (68.5 percent career), and Bowen is even worse (56.8 percent). Overall, San Antonio's 70.2 percent mark from the line ranked 28th among the league's 30 teams, and one of the clubs that was worse (Miami) ranked so low almost entirely due to one player. On the Spurs it was a real team effort -- Finley was the only Spur to clear 80 percent, and you have to think there's something in the water down there when even Brent Barry is shooting 66.1 percent.
But San Antonio's problem isn't just making shots from the line, it's getting there in the first place. The Spurs ranked second in field-goal percentage and third in 3-point percentage a year ago, but only seventh in True Shooting Percentage. That's because their ratio of free-throw attempts to field-goal attempts was .298, which ranked 27th in the NBA. Even shooting as badly as San Antonio did, foul shots are a far better proposition than shooting from the field, so not getting to the line more is a major failing. Parker is a major culprit here, earning shockingly few free-throw attempts for a guard who drives to the basket so often.
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2006-07 OUTLOOK
San Antonio set a franchise record for wins a year ago, but the amazing part is that there are several reasons to think the Spurs will be even better this year. Their two best players, Duncan and Ginobili, weren't close to being at full strength last year, so one would think San Antonio would be much better if those two return to their normal output. And as harsh as this might sound, Van Exel's retirement alone should make them better, because whoever replaces him virtually is guaranteed to be better.
San Antonio should also be better at center, where Butler and Bonner can replace the indifferent production Mohammed and Nesterovic gave a year ago -- though replacing Nesterovic's defense is a tougher assignment. Age on the wings is a concern -- Finley and Barry have seen better days; Bowen is 35, and Ginobili is only 29 but has taken a beating the past two years -- but that's about the best I can do in making a case for why San Antonio might be worse. The Spurs again should be among the top two or three teams defensively, while they have three stud offensive players and several shooters around them to keep defenses honest. Throw in a great coach and the league's best organization, and all told they're a good bet to win their fourth championship in nine years.
John Hollinger writes for ESPN Insider. To e-mail him, click here.
SAN ANTONIO SPURS
TRAINING CAMP
Lyon, France - Hall Vivier Merle
Paris, France - Bercy Arena
Start Date: Oct. 1
2005-06 RECORD
54-28 (Reached West semis)
• Roster | Schedule | Camp Index
All in all, they have to be considered one of the two or three teams with the best shot at winning a championship. But if I had to put my chips on one side in the West, it would be the Spurs, not Dallas.
This was his closing statement about the outlook for the Mavs..... I can't ing wait... League Pass, Inside the NBA, NBA TV highlights... I need a diaper I'm about to piss my britches
So where are all the doomsday posters from the past few months?
Scheduling appointments w/ their shrinks b/c of an acute case of paranoia
Nice assessment by Hollinger, as always. He is a clever man.
Only thing I might question is this: "The Spurs again should be among the top two or three teams defensively". The loss of Rasho will affect our defence considerably unless Elson or Butler quickly develop their weakside help D, which is not out of the question, but he should have mentioned it.
Agreed, but I do remeber Rasho not being known for his defense in Minnesota (Garnett wasn't yelling for nothing).... I liken it to parenting a child. No discipline makes a hard-headed ass child, but crack the whip and they become model citizens (normally).... Pop stresses defense first and I have to believe they will follow... unless they're hard-headed.... Notice how aggressive Finley played defense in the playoffs? He wasn't doing that the year before. First the culture shock, then they'll blend in... The Spurs train should be rolling by March.
Excellent stats view. Van Exel - one of Pop's few hunches that turned out to be wrong. Hollinger's evaluations are pretty spot-on including the ones about Spurs management. It's obvious he watches lots of games and knows what he's seeing....and I don't think he watches the games from the TVs at the Bowling Alley.
Its nice to see ESPN have journalist, who know what they are talking about, with supporting details.
since when did being a homer for the spurs make someone an intelligent person?
It's not like Hollinger's word is the gospel or anything, and I'm not talking to everyone here, just the Beno haters (cough cough Kori and Chump cough), but... you, at least I've got someone smart on my side who agrees that Beno was given the shaft and unduly benched because people thought he couldn't play against a press and mother er should have been playing over NVE at all times, more or less.
your and idiot...hollinger does give the spurs (and duncan especially) respect, but he sure as ain't no homer
Finally, someone has eloquently stated what many "hardcore fans and NVE haters" knew all along, NVE was a "piece of ". It was obvious during his final season. Did the Spurs' brass even bother to watch any tape of the guy?
It didn't take Hollinger's analysis for this to become clear, but his points were salient nonetheless.
Personally, I was offended that the Spurs brass kept trying to sell NVE to everyone as the "answer" at the backup PG slot. I still cannot believe the short-sightedness of the organization to have fallen in love with the 3-year old memory of his previous playoff performances.
I can also recall the comments of many on this board who, at the time, kept clamoring for us skeptics to "wait until the playoffs begin because Van Exel would prove to be big time". He was big time alright. His screw-ups were only compounded by his diminished skills and poor shot selection. All of which were big-time failures. In short, he gave the Spurs absolutely nothing during the regular season and the playoffs.
I agree with Hollinger completely. The NVE signing was a collossal mistake and the Spurs should not have stunted Beno's development in the process. I don't know that I would go as far as to say that this decision cost the Spurs the season. Mainly because that personnel mistake was clearly trumped by Manu's foul on Dirk in Game 7.
I don't know if he is a Spurs homer, he has numbers to back up what he is saying. I don't think the Spurs are an old team like he implies, just seasoned, really seasoned! However I think this will be an asset as the season wears on.
Some good points in his article, we'll see if he is as smart as we all hope!
Don't blame me. I wanted to sign Derrick Zimmerman. And Beno got eaten alive by Chuck Hayes, whom I also wanted to sign.Beno was given the shaft and unduly benched because people thought he couldn't play against a press
Go figure.
I actually like Beno and want him to be the backup point guard. I think he has good vision and is a great shooter.just the Beno haters (cough cough Kori and Chump cough),
I just also want him to be able to bring up the ball when pressed by DLeaguer. And I want him to be in shape.
When did advancing the ball past halfcourt become too much to ask of an NBA point guard?
wow that's supposed to be an inspiration for me to cheer for this team more to snatch that Larry O again next season.Now they lose Mohammed as a free agent, but swipe Butler from New York for peanuts-- Butler is a potential stud and yet the free-spending Knicks let him walk rather than match a three-year, $7 million offer sheet. Look at the deals mediocre centers are getting around the league and then check that price tag again. The dude is 21 and really can score -- he'll be better than either Mohammed or Rasho and cost about a quarter as much.
as for Beno i hope he'll play big next yr and to his full potential. Copy the fate of Parker's much improved season of last yr. Actually, I'm happy he's still playing for the Spurs.
Hollinger made a lot of good ponts. Nick Van Exel in retrospect was a mistake. However, I think Hollinger might want to watch Beno play before saying how much better the Spurs would have been with him out there. To say the Spurs would have won the championship if Beno played is laughable. I'm not even sure Beno could bring up the ball against Jason Terry or Devin Harris.
He sees Butler much like I see him -- a potential stud who the Spurs stole from the Knicks. I still don't know why the Knicks wouldn't match that offer. However, to say Butler is going to produce this year or even next year is wishful thinking. It wouldn't shock me if Butler isn't ready for rotational minutes for another three or four years. But if I was a betting man, I'd say Butler will surprise the league and be a 15-20 minute key player for the Spurs this season.
Hollinger also nails Elson. He calls Elson a good third string center. I can agree with that. As a Jack Haley, Tom Copa or William Bedford, this guy is gold.
What Kori said::::::::
If his closing quotes stated he would bet on the Mavs over the Spurs, your reaction would be different. I could see if you said Marc Stein was a homer, but I've never know Hollinger to ride the Spurs jock.... Anyway, back to the Spurs fans!!!! I think Beno should be the 2nd backup, however, against shoot 1st and quick pg like Ford, Iverson, Terry, etc., I think Vaughn should lag more PT b/c of his defense. Beno does have trouble staying in front of his man. Other than that, I think the spot should be his. He choked in that Finals and the FO should get passed it now.... Dirk choked in the Finals, but I'm sure Avery will still give him decent minutes
Rasho was key in the sense that he played better defense on Yao than any of the guys we have on the roster today. Last year, with the Rockets in shambles, it wasn't so important to have to beat them. What's going to happen when we put elson or butler or timmy on yao and put bowen on mcgrady? Now they have Bonzi Wells, who i think is overrated, btw, but plays huge against the Spurs.
So if Yao and TMac stay healthy (probably) and Bonzi isn't just a contract year wonder (maybe) -- the Rockets are going to be up top with Dallas and SA this year and matching up against them is going to be very important. I think Rasho will be SORELY missed in those matchups. I guess Javtokas wasn't good enough to be the guy to gaurd Yao -- but Butler/Timmy/Horry(ugh) rotation on Yao and Bowen on Mcgrady and *who?* on Wells -- I just don't like how we matchup with them. And it could be a big factor in the conference standings.
But maybe the Rockets suck this year and it won't matter.
^ Good article and analysis, agree for the most part with points Hollinger made. My main hope is that Beno can really get assertive and take control of that backup PG spot. I like his court vision, he's a decent shooter, but he has to get better with his ball-handling. If he isn't confident in bringing the ball up the court with pressure D, then he is a liability being in the game. In the playoffs other teams will exploit our liabilities.
I knew it, VanX was the main reason why we been crying all summer longI'm not sure there's any way else to put this -- in opting for a faded Van Exel instead of the younger, more talented Udrih, the Spurs essentially sacrificed a championship at the altar of veteran leadership.
Yeah he's a homer. In fact, he blurted out pure opinion and had no facts to back up what he stated....right? Wrong
He made great points about how good we were last year and made convincing arguments for our improvement. It sounds like you're bitter because your team beat the Spurs last year and the Mavs STILL can't get most to say they're the prohiberative favorite. Sucks.
Exactly my point ALL LAST YEAR!! The knock on Beno coming into the league was whether he could hold up. Pop gets amnesia after the Detroit series and instead of developing Beno, sits him. Still, when NVE's injuries cause him to be "rested" for a stretch of games, Beno does well (just go back and read the EN stories) before he himself sustains an unfortunate injury. He never gets back into the rotation even after he heals. More Pop amnesia.
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