Based on 63 polls of 48 districts of 1,000 likely voters each, they will
show Democrats currently ahead in the House by 19 seats, 224-205, or the
exact, 19-seat margin of the Republican Majority after the 2002 elections.
It is also a significant increase from the 219-214 seat lead for Democrats
found in the Majority Watch polling from late August and early September.
This 19-seat lead will not even include seven compe ive, Republican-held
districts that are currently being polled, and six districts that are
currently tied. In fact, perhaps most stunningly, the districts with
"safe" leads outside the margins of error break 217-198 in favor of
Democrats. The previous set of polls actually showed Republicans ahead on
safe seats, 205-199. Further, since TX-22 was not polled, that means
Democrats already have the magic 218, outside the margin of error, with
between 19 and 26 more races in the "toss-up" category. This is a looming
landslide.
Update: Here are the results (PDF). I'll keep adding more as fast as I
can. Polls showing Democratic pickups are in bold:
* NY-26: Davis (D) 56%--40% Reynolds (R)
* OH-15: Kilroy (D) 53%--41% Pryce (R)
* NY-24: Arcuri (D) 53%--42% Mieir (R)
* OH-18: Space (D) 51%--42% Padgett (R)
* PA-07: Sestak (D) 52%--44% Weldon (R)
* NM-01: Madrid (R) 52%--44% Wilson (R)
* NC-11: Shuler (D) 51%--43% Taylor (R)
* NC-08: Kissel (D) 51%--44% Hayes (R)
* PA-06: Murphy (D) 52%--46% Gerlach (R)
* MN-06: Wetterling (D) 50%--45% Bachmann (R)
* IN-02: Donnelly (D) 50%--46% Chocola (R)
* AZ-01: Simon (D) 50%--46% Renzi (R)
* OH-02: Wulsin (D) 48%--45% Schmidt (R)
* FL-13: Jennings (D) 47%--44% Buchannan (R)
* WI-08: Kagen (D) 48%--46% Gard (R)
* IA-02: Loebsack (D) 48%--47% Leach (R)
* KY-03: Yarmuth (D) 48%--48% Northup (R)
* IL-06: Duckworth (D) 47%--47% Roskam (R)
* CO-07: Perlmutter (D) 47%--47% O'Donell (R)
* MN-01: Gutknecht (R) 48%--47% Walz (D)
* VA-02: Drake (R) 48%--46% Kellam (D)
* NJ-07: Ferguson (R) 48%--46% Stender (D)
* NY-03: King (R) 48%--46% Mejas (D)
* WA-08: Reichert (R) 48%--45% Burner (D)
* KY-04: Davis (R) 49%--46% Lucas (D)
* VA-10: Wolf (R) 47%--42% Feder (D)
* ID-01: Sali (R) 49%--43% Grant (D)
* CT-05: Johnson (R) 52%--46% Murphy (D)
* CA-04: Doolittle (R) 52%--44% Brown (D)
* IL-14: Hastert (R) 52%--42% Leasch (D)
* IL-19: Shimkus (R) 53%--36% Stover (D)
Every seat I have listed is held by a Republican and was polled from
October 8-10. One Democratic district, TX-17, was also polled. It showed
Edwards (D) 55%--38% Taylor (R).
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It has since 1994 ..oh wait your a partisan hack with only political slogans to use as a defense.. never mind
