Rosen: Southwest Preview

[DieMrBond]

Talented Mavs stand out in stocked Southwest

Posted: 2 hours ago

Without question this is the best overall division in the league.

Dallas and San Antonio are legit contenders for the championship. Houston has the capability of blasting their way into this elite company. New Orleans/Oklahoma City is better than ever. And once Pau Gasol recovers, Memphis will be a dangerous ball club.

Dallas Mavericks

The guards: Jason Terry has yet to prove that he can come up big in big-time situations. Devin Harris still lacks a reliable jump shot. Anthony Johnson has guts and can play defense but lacks the requisite ball-handling skills. Overall, the Mavs' point guards all have profound weaknesses, which can (and have been) exploited. The chronically-injured Greg Buckner is another ace defender who can shoot well enough to justify starter's minutes. Look for some combination of Terry/Harris/Johnson to assume the burden of the backcourt duties.

The forwards: Josh Howard's lively body and talents are highly productive, even when his number isn't called. Jerry Stackhouse remains a powerful scorer off the bench. Austin Croshere hustles and periodically knocks down treys. Devean George is a career underachiever. Under Avery Johnson's guidance, Dirk Nowitzki has become more aggressive on offense. Too bad he's still a woeful defender and, like Terry, Harris and Stackhouse, vanished when Miami turned up the heat last June.

Anything less than an NBA Championship will be a failure for Dirk Nowitzki and Co. (Ronald Martinez / Getty Images)

The centers: DeSagana Diop's defense is critical for the team's success. Can he maintain his intensity for an entire season? Erick Dampier's hustle and orneriness nearly compensate for his sub-par athleticism.

The outlook: Yes, the Mavs are deeper than ever, but anything less than a championship would cons ute a disappointing season. For all their gaudy numbers, both Terry and Nowitzki simply must deliver the goods in the clutch if this goal is to be reached. Is this possible? Yes. Is this probable? No.

Houston Rockets

The guards: Rafer Alston has a career FG percentage of .387, as well as a penchant for thinking more like a scorer than a playmaker. If Bob Sura ever regains his health, his courage and unselfishness will make a huge difference. John Lucas isn't ready to assume control of a high-powered offense. Luther Head and Kirk Snyder shoot first and never ask questions. Tracy McGrady can literally do it all — shoot, score, pass, run, rebound and even defend — except stay healthy. Unless T-Mac can operate at top efficiency for at least 70-75 games, then the Rockets will barely squeeze into the playoffs.

The forwards: Juwan Howard puts up numbers but can't pass, defend or produce in critical situations. Bonzi Wells is a monster both in the pivot and along the right baseline — but he's also been the source of disharmony everywhere he's played (Houston is his fourth stop in the last four years). Shane Battier is a winner, but Houston will be a loser if Battier doesn't play 30-plus minutes. Indeed, look for Battier to eventually supplant Howard's time at the power-forward spot.

The centers: Yao Ming sports the most notable toe since the salad days of Lou Groza. Can the big man's sore digit survive the rigors of the season? Will Yao ever become an aggressive, durable, monster of the midway? Dikembe Mutombo is Zaire's version of Old Man River.

Tracy McGrady's health could be the Rockets' biggest obstacle. (Ron Ira Steele / Associated Press)

Outlook: With Alston, T-Mac and Wells all needing their ball time, where does that leave Yao? Also, the Rockets' hopes will ultimately be sabotaged by the divisive antics of Wells, as well as the self-serving excuses routinely offered by Jeff Van Gundy. Houston is a very dangerous team, capable of beating any of the NBA's best at any time — yet the talent isn't balanced, and the team has too many emotional hot spots. If anybody can save this team, it'll be Battier.

Memphis Grizzlies

The guards: With Gasol down, Damon Stoudamire must carry the offense — a feat which he's certainly capable of doing for the short term. Over the long haul, however, he simply doesn't convert enough makeable shots. Chucky Atkins is a gunner with limited skills when he doesn't have the ball in his hands. At age 35, Eddie Jones' skills are considerably diminished. Dahntay Jones is a rugged bricklayer, not yet ready for prime time.

The forwards: Mike Miller can shoot and play hard. Stromile Swift is one of the most talented players in the league — too bad he lacks any concept of how to play the game. Even when healthy, Gasol is too much of a softie to be a go-to scorer come the money season. Once he calms down and understands where and when to do what, then Hakim Warrick has the potential to be a dynamic performer. Rudy Gay had better be as good as advertised.

The centers: Jake Tsakalidis? Lawrence Roberts? Look for Swift or Gasol to fill the middle whenever games are up for grabs.

The outlook: The injury to Gasol is devastating — especially given the fierce intra-divisional compe ion. Mike Fratello aims to join the bandwagon and play run and gun small ball. OK. But his charges lack sufficient rebounding, defense, quickness and sheer talent to successfully imitate the Suns. Their only hope is that Rudy Gay is an instant superstar. Bet on Memphis continuing its streak of never winning a playoff game — if only because qualifying for the postseason frolic is an extremely long shot.

New Orleans/Oklahoma City Hornets

The guards: Chris Paul is indeed a wonder, but he needs to improve his shooting. Bobby Jackson is a seasoned and effective backup at both guard slots. Jannero Pargo is an effective long-range bomber who can't finish and can't adequately run an offense.

Peja Stojakovic is an old 29, as evidenced by the decrease in his shooting percentage year by year ever since 2002-'03. At best, he's a poor defender, poor handler and a spectacularly streaky shooter. At worst, he's a disgrace in the clutch.

The forwards: If his stroke was a little smoother, and if he had more touches, Desmond Mason could become a big-time scorer. And he also plays defense! Rasual Butler is an erratic shooter who believes that every shot he takes is a good shot. David West needs to step up his defense and his handling, but otherwise he is the most solid player on the roster.

The centers: Tyson Chandler needs to stay out of foul trouble, cut down on his turnovers, become at least a semi-threat in the low post, and generally develop a modi of self esteem. Marc Jackson is a large, warm body.

The outlook: Not enough power up front. Not enough diversity off the bench. Too much is riding on Peja somehow becoming a dependable scorer. The Hornets are still improving and are capable of making the playoffs, However, in betting their immediate future on Stojakovic, they have made a serious misstep.

San Antonio Spurs

The guards: Did Tony Parker take a big step backwards during the playoffs? Missing too many open shots? Forcing his way into the lane? Despite his flaws — inability to finish, poor recovery on defense — Jacque Vaughn's athleticism and on-the-ball-pressure make him a vast improvement over Beno Udrih. Manu Ginobili remains a critical component of the Spurs destiny. He needs to avoid injury to keep his mojo working at full speed. Michael Finley can still bury clutch jumpers, but he hasn't been a capable defender in years. Ditto for Brent Barry, except that he's never been a capable defender.

The forwards: At age 35, can Bruce Bowen continue playing the kind of scratching, clawing, holding defense that's made him such a valuable player? Look for Matt Bonner's rebounding, incredible perimeter shooting and generic toughness to be a pleasant surprise. But, how well will Bonner fit into the Spurs' quick-moving, help- defense? Robert Horry needs to recover his fast-fading youth. And while Tim Duncan may lack the panache of D-Wade, LBJ and Co., he's still the best player in the league. Don't underestimate the defense and grit that Eric Williams can bring to the mix.

The centers: Francisco Elson is a too-soft runner and shooter. Jackie Butler has a few awkward but earnest moves in the pivot (always coming back to his right hand). Fabricio Oberto is a marginal NBA player. Overriding the profound shortcomings of this crew is the understanding that T.D. will man the center spot in end-game situations.

The outlook: Age is indeed a factor. Finley, Bowen and especially Horry must produce for the Spurs to regain their crown. But, although he lacks Bowens' 3-point proficiency as well as his ability to guard quick-stepping wingmen, Williams is a fierce defender. Still, Horry is the difference between San Antonio being an excellent team and a championship team.

Charley Rosen is FOXSports.com's NBA analyst and author of 13 books about hoops, the current one being "The pivotal season, How the 1971-72 L.A. Lakers changed the NBA."

[1Parker1]

Mehhh, not sure if Horry is the difference maker that Rosen thinks. I think the difference between the Spurs being an excellent team and a championship team is Manu Ginobili. Duncan will do his thing (if healthy), Parker will continue to improve, Bowen will hopefully be able to play the same defense, Finley/Horry/Barry/Bonner can have the perimeter shooting touch. But if Manu reverts to 2005-2006 Playoff Manu, I don't think there's any team that stands a chance against the Spurs.


(This is all providing that everyone stays healthy).

[Mr. Body]

If Horry is the diference maker, then don't expect a championship. The guy, I expect, is done.

Prove me wrong, Rob!

[RC's Boss]

It may make me seem biased w/ my opinion being a Spurs fan, but this dude is a ing idiot. Did he just say Tony Parker's flaw is his inability to finish? You don't rank in the tops in FG% w/ the majority of your shots around the basket and not be able to finish That and the Horry comment are ridiculous. This thread should be closed instead of making comments on an article from such a dumbass

[Dre_7]

It may make me seem biased w/ my opinion being a Spurs fan, but this dude is a ing idiot. Did he just say Tony Parker's flaw is his inability to finish? You don't rank in the tops in FG% w/ the majority of your shots around the basket and not be able to finish That and the Horry comment are ridiculous. This thread should be closed instead of making comments on an article from such a dumbass

Despite his flaws — inability to finish, poor recovery on defense — Jacque Vaughn's athleticism and on-the-ball-pressure make him a vast improvement over Beno Udrih.

[phxspurfan]

hooked on phonics - syntax volume. learn it. love it.

[Solid D]

It may make me seem biased w/ my opinion being a Spurs fan, but this dude is a ing idiot. Did he just say Tony Parker's flaw is his inability to finish? You don't rank in the tops in FG% w/ the majority of your shots around the basket and not be able to finish That and the Horry comment are ridiculous. This thread should be closed instead of making comments on an article from such a dumbass

In this case, I think Charlie Rosen meant Tony's flaw in the playoffs, not the regular season. Rosen started off his premise with a question - "Did Tony Parker take a big step backwards during the playoffs?"

Tony shot .548 from the field during the Regular Season but dropped to .510 in the Sacramento series and .422 in the Dallas series. That's a dramatic drop.

[Kori Ellis]

Charley Rosen apparently wasn't aware that Tony was hurt in the playoffs. Also listing "inability to finish" as his flaw is funny. Other mistakes: Vaughn isn't athletic. Finley was a decent defender last season. Bonner can't rebound.

The only thing he really got right was his analysis of the center situation.

[Kori Ellis]

I guess SolidD wasn't aware he was hurt either

[Mr. Body]

Despite his flaws — inability to finish, poor recovery on defense — Jacque Vaughn's athleticism and on-the-ball-pressure make him a vast improvement over Beno Udrih.

Inability to finish is Jacques Vaughn. Vaughn is called athletic in comparison to Udrih.

[Kori Ellis]

Inability to finish is Jacques Vaughn.

You are right. I read the poster's comments and just skimmed the article.

[FromWayDowntown]

I think Rosen had two distinct thoughts -- one related to Parker:

Did Tony Parker take a big step backwards during the playoffs? Missing too many open shots? Forcing his way into the lane?

and the other related to Jacque Vaughn:

Despite his flaws — inability to finish, poor recovery on defense — Jacque Vaughn's athleticism and on-the-ball-pressure make him a vast improvement over Beno Udrih.

It's horrendously written, but I think constructing it otherwise makes it even more non-sensical.

In any event, the measuring stick for Vaughn's effectiveness, it seems to me, isn't Beno but Nick Van Exel. If Vaughn (or Beno) is even slightly more productive than Van Exel was at playoff time, the Spurs are better for it.

[Mr. Body]

It's not horrendously written at all. People just jumping down this guy's throat. The entire article is written in plain English, just some of his opinions are kind of weird and faulty.

[FromWayDowntown]

It's not horrendously written at all. People just jumping down this guy's throat. The entire article is written in plain English, just some of his opinions are kind of weird and faulty.

I don't mean to make this a discourse on grammar, but Rosen's composition is terribly unclear. Rosen makes a statement about Parker and then poses two questions that clearly relate to Parker. Neither question appears rhetorical, so the reader expects to find an answer in the following sentence. That is justified by the fact that Rosen uses an indefinite pronoun in the first clause of the following sentence. The pronoun "his" in that context suggests that he's still speaking of Parker, particularly when there's no reference to Vaughn until after the offset.

Written more clearly, I think the Vaughn sentence reads: Despite Jacque Vaughn's flaws -- inability to finish, poor recovery on defense — his athleticism and on-the-ball-pressure make him a vast improvement over Beno Udrih.

In any event, Rosen, as ever, seems to work from assumption more than observation.

[Solid D]

Parker was hurting in the playoffs, that's true. His leg and hip slowed him down. He scored 31 points against Sac, with a badly bruised leg. The hip injury came at the end of that series. I just think his bigger problem was Dallas. The Mavs made Tony, not Timmy, their focus... and it showed. The Spurs still almost pulled out that series.

[Kori Ellis]

Parker was hurting in the playoffs, that's true. His leg and hip slowed him down. He scored 31 points against Sac, with a badly bruised leg. The hip injury came at the end of that series. I just think his bigger problem was Dallas. The Mavs made Tony, not Timmy, their focus... and it showed. The Spurs still almost pulled out that series.

I guess you actually did forget then. Tony had two very badly bruised thighs in the Mavs series, one sustained in the last game of the Kings series and the other in game 1 or 2 of the Mavs series. It was to the point where two of the games against the Mavs, the night before them he couldn't walk and he was almost scratched from the lineup. It didn't have anything to do with the Mavs causing him to lose focus. He was physically incapable. He had no lift.

[T Park]

Parker damn near didn't play in the last half of the Mavs series and he gets ripped?

Got damn the poor kid cant get a break!!!


BTW, Im slightly encouraged about Vaughn, and Eric Williams once he loses Eric WIlliams.

Butler is gonna be shock the world.

[SequSpur]

Parker damn near didn't play in the last half of the Mavs series and he gets ripped?

Got damn the poor kid cant get a break!!!


BTW, Im slightly encouraged about Vaughn, and Eric Williams once he loses Eric WIlliams.

Butler is gonna be shock the world.

I ain't encouraged by .

[Notorious H.O.P.]

Rosen has run a lot more miles than he should have but it is probably his occasional and rare observation gem that keeps him around. Unfortunately they get even rarer as time goes on. These days, I think he just reads three year old scouting reports and rarely even pays attention to games. His association (or some may say obsession) with Phil Jackson keeps him in the analyst game as long as Phil is/was on top but if Phil slides anymore, he'll eventually take Rosen with him.

[dbreiden83080]

If Horry is the diference maker, then don't expect a championship. The guy, I expect, is done.

Prove me wrong, Rob!

I don't think he is done. If this is indeed Big Shot Rob's last year , i expect come playoff time he will go out with a bang. The guy has made way too many clutch shots in his career to just go out with a wimper.

[phxspurfan]

I hope butler does shock the world -- but before he does, the spurs need to give him the chance. If they begin the season by starting Oberto or Elson, Butler will be starting by Saturday, November 11 (the Knicks game).

[angryllama]

Rosen is a bonafide nimrod.

You can see the obsessive Laker/Phil Jackson love in the article. He needs to find another job.

[RC's Boss]

I don't mean to make this a discourse on grammar, but Rosen's composition is terribly unclear. Rosen makes a statement about Parker and then poses two questions that clearly relate to Parker. Neither question appears rhetorical, so the reader expects to find an answer in the following sentence. That is justified by the fact that Rosen uses an indefinite pronoun in the first clause of the following sentence. The pronoun "his" in that context suggests that he's still speaking of Parker, particularly when there's no reference to Vaughn until after the offset.

Written more clearly, I think the Vaughn sentence reads: Despite Jacque Vaughn's flaws -- inability to finish, poor recovery on defense — his athleticism and on-the-ball-pressure make him a vast improvement over Beno Udrih.

In any event, Rosen, as ever, seems to work from assumption more than observation.

Thanks.

[Supergirl]

That is, in the words of Tim Duncan, re ed. That was some of the worst analysis I have ever read.

Jacque Vaughn and "vast improvement" over Udrih? He's just different, gives the Spurs depth at PG. But Udrih has a huge upside, and could be a starter for a team, whereas Vaughn is best as a back up PG.

Did he WATCH the SPurs games last year? Finley actually did an excellent job defending, which is why Pop played him so much. And Rosen vastly underestimates Butler, Elson, and Bowen, and WAY overestimates Horry.

The key to the Spurs winning a championship is the health of their big 3, and Manu. Manu has always been their X-factor, next year will be no different. It's no secret Manu was the deciding factor in the final minute of the series against Dallas. But Manu is also the reason we won in 2005.

[coopdogg3]

That is, in the words of Tim Duncan, re ed. That was some of the worst analysis I have ever read.

Jacque Vaughn and "vast improvement" over Udrih? He's just different, gives the Spurs depth at PG. But Udrih has a huge upside, and could be a starter for a team, whereas Vaughn is best as a back up PG.

Did he WATCH the SPurs games last year? Finley actually did an excellent job defending, which is why Pop played him so much. And Rosen vastly underestimates Butler, Elson, and Bowen, and WAY overestimates Horry.

The key to the Spurs winning a championship is the health of their big 3, and Manu. Manu has always been their X-factor, next year will be no different. It's no secret Manu was the deciding factor in the final minute of the series against Dallas. But Manu is also the reason we won in 2005.

Yeah, it's easy to forget that Manu was the key factor in Spurs 2005 Championship. It's easy to remember his bone-headed foul of Dirk in 2006. Live by the sword, die by the sword I suppose.