Early 2008 Senate analysis

[Ocotillo]

Daily Kos, so the commentary is pro-Democrat

Colorado: Wayne Allard (R)

Some trivia: Allard won a shocker re-election battle in 2002 while trailing in the polls almost the entire election. His campaign manager was Wadhams. Wadhams cemented his reputation as the "next Karl Rove" by knocking off Tom Daschle in the Senate in 2004. It was considered a coup by George Allen when Wadhams signed up to run his presidential campaign. And then oops.

In any case, Allard has never won comfortably, and the Democrats already have a declared candidate in Rep. Mark Udall. The Colorado Democratic Party is on the rise, and given Allard's two narrow victories and prospects in the minority, he may decide to call it quits. Even if he doesn't, this'll be a top-tier race.

Delaware: Joe Biden (D)

Biden will run for president (yeah, snicker away) and lose. If he pulls a Lieberman and simultaneously runs for reelection, I hope he gets primaried. If he retires to focus on the presidency pipe dream, his son Beau Biden is apparently interested in going for the seat.

Kansas: Pat Roberts (R)

I don't have much hope this could be compe ive. While Democrats are on the rise in Kansas, most of them will be focused on the 2010 open seat since Brownback will retire at that time. Gov. Sebelius might make a run at it, but I'm convinced she's VP material and will likely make a play for the presidential ticket.

Kentucky: Mitch McConnell (R)

It's a bad time to be a Republican in Kentucky. State scandals will cost them the governor's mansion next year, and they lost one of their House seats this last election. McConnell is the 800-pound gorilla in Kentucky politics, but he's seeing the party he controls disintegrate before his very eyes. This will be a top-tier race.

Louisiana: Mary Landrieu (D)

Her pathetic performance during the Katrina disaster has hurt her popularity, and I wouldn't be surprised if she faced a spirited challenge from the left. Remember -- in Louisiana, the general election is an "open primary", with a runoff for the top two vote-getters in December. Republicans are on the rise in Louisiana, and mass displacement of Democratic voters in the wake of Katrina would make this seat even more difficult to hold.

Maine: Susan Collins (R)

It'd be nice to grab a seat in this Blue state, but Collins and Snowe are amongst the most popular senators in the country. Any effort to contest this seat would have to start early. Rep. Tom Allen might give her a run for her money.

Minnesota: Norm Coleman (R)

This will be a top-tier pickup opportunity. Coleman has never been too popular, and was only elected because of the right-wing-noise-machine smear job on the Wellstone memorial.

Al Franken is already running for this seat. Others will as well. This one will be back in the (D) column two years from today.

Mississippi: Thad Cochran (R)

This one is safe (R) if Cochran runs for reelection. If he doesn't, expect a top-tier battle between Rep. Chip Pickering and former Attorney General Mike Moore.

Nebraska: Chuck Hagel (R)

If he retires to run for president, this seat could pull a Montana and be compe ive. Scott Kleeb could be our dream candidate. If Hagel sticks around, it's an easy hold.

New Hampshire: John Sununu (R)

The state is trending Indigo Blue. Sununu is a freshman senator in a state that is leaving him behind. It's telling that both NH senators changed their votes on the last Federal Marriage Amendment effort -- an acknowledgment that they needed to move Left or further erode their reelection chances.

New Jersey: Frank Lautenberg (D)

Lautenberg is up there in years. His fundraising hasn't been strong, but he's indicated he'll be running for reelection. He's not one of the most popular senators in the country, but then again, New Jersey residents hate all their politicians. I wouldn't be surprised if Kean Jr. makes another go at it.

New Mexico: Pete Domenici (R)

His fundraising is anemic. He's got just $264,271 CoH. Rumors are rampant that he'll be retiring. Heather Wilson wants this Senate seat, which would be a two-fer for us -- we get a relatively easy pickup at NM-01, and several of the state's strong Democrats (Rep. Tom Udall?) can defeat her at the statewide level.

North Carolina: Elizabeth Dole (R)

Boy, talk about someone who's been proven to be utterly incompetent. She was in charge of the GOP's Senate effort this year and sucked at candidate recruitment, sucked at fundraising, and let the Dems make a 6-seat gain despite a very favorable map. Rumors are rampant that she'll retire. Her and Bob are getting old. But even if she doesn't, this will be a top-tier race.

Gov. Mike Easley would be a top bet for us. He's term-limited out of the governor's mansion.

Oklahoma: Jim Inhofe (R)

Inhofe isn't too popular at home these days and rumors are that he'll quit. His fundraising hasn't been torrid by any stretch of the imagination, with just $500K CoH. Brad Carson, who waged an energetic and compe ive race in 2004 against Crazy Tom Coburn would probably be interested in a run. So might in bent Democratic governor Brad Henry. If the national mood is still anti-Republican in 2008, this one could be in play (Bush's approval/disapproval rating is 46/51 in Oklahoma).

Oregon: Gordon Smith (R)

Smith will be one of the most endangered Republicans in 2008. The Democratic bench in the state is deep.

South Carolina: Lindsey Graham (R)

This race won't be interesting so much for our ability to pick it up. Those chances are currently slim. It'll be interesting because the right-wing crazies in the state are already mobilizing for a spirited primary challenge. If he's ousted in a primary, this could become compe ive in the general.

South Dakota: Tim Johnson (D)

Tough state, and Johnson barely survived a battle against John Thune (who went on two years later to defeat Tom Daschle). If Republican Gov. Mike Rounds jumps in, this could be our most endangered in bent.

Tennessee: Lamar Alexander (R)

I suspect we'll see a wiser, battle-tested Harold Ford contest for this seat in 2008. And I wouldn't be surprised if this time he's more successful.

Virginia: John Warner (R)

If Warner retires, Mark Warner swoops in for the (relatively) easy pickup. If Warner doesn't retire, we get a rematch of the 1996 Warner-Warner battle. Either way, this will be a top-tier battle if Mark decides on the Senate race (his other option is to run for governor again in 2009). For the GOP, Rep. Tom Davis is itching for a promotion.

West Virginia: Jay Rockefeller (D)

Rep. Capito was scared off from running against Byrd this year after MoveOn dumped $800K into Byrd's coffers. I doubt she'd go after Rockefeller when it's obvious that in six years, Byrd won't be running for reelection. She'll wait. But if Rockefeller retires (he'll be 71 in 2008), then this becomes a top-tier compe ive race. Dems have a deep bench in this state, though it's trending Red.

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Not likely compe ive at this time: Stevens (R) in AK, Kerry (D) in MA, Levin (D) in MI, Durbin (D) in IL, Harkin (D) in IA, Pryor (D) in AR, Chambliss (R) in GA, Cornyn (R) in TX, Sessions (R) in AL.


My Comments:

At this stage, I think the Democrats pick up Colorado, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico and Oregon.

The Republicans will pick up Louisiana and South Dakota.

The toss ups are New Jersey, North Carolina and maybe Virginia. Virginia goes Democratic if Warner retires. If the other two flip, it's a wash.

Landrieu will not be much of a loss as she is a weak Senator and a weak Democrat as well. Johnson of South Dakota is vunerable simply because of the make up of the state he is in.

I would love to send Cornyn into early retirement but there is no bench in Texas at all. I don't think Cornyn is beloved but can anyone name one Democrat who could be compe ive with him?

[Ocotillo]

Also, if a Democrat wins the White House in '08, they need to appoint Susan Collins to the cabinet. She would be a twofer. You could claim, a bipartisan appointment and she is a woman adding to diversity. Finally, you likely could add another Democrat to the Senate.