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I really think you are making things much too complex..it's real simple...
Any good news to you, is bad.
Any bad news to you, is good.
We all get it...why confuse yourself?
Sellers trading out the dollar can't be good especially with W rolling out another projected year of record debt, and a war in Iraq that see's no end to the cost to the American taxpayers....
BloombergNov. 8 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar may fall to its lowest ever against the euro for a second consecutive week after President George W. Bush signaled he will expand policies that produced record deficits and a 21 percent decline in the currency since he took office in 2001, according to a Bloomberg News survey.
Sixty percent of the traders, strategists and investors questioned on Nov. 5 from Tokyo to New York advised selling the dollar against the euro. Participants also said the U.S. currency will likely drop versus the yen, British pound, Swiss franc and Australian dollar.
``A second-term for Bush doesn't bode well for the dollar,'' said Samarjit Shankar, director of global foreign-exchange strategy at Mellon Financial Corp. in Boston, which manages $625 billion. ``There's no way of convincing the market additional spending on the war can be paid for if you have a lower tax base. It's a fundamental mismatch between spending and revenue.''
Bush, who won a second term on Nov. 2, presided over a record fiscal and current-account deficit at a time when appe e for U.S. securities among foreign investors is diminished. The president, who campaigned on making permanent his $1.85 trillion in tax cuts and prosecuting the war in Iraq, said he will spend political capital ``earned'' during the campaign.
``So many people just want to hammer the dollar,'' said Ashley Davies, a currency strategist in Singapore at UBS AG, the largest trader in the foreign-exchange market. ``An endorsement of the last four years means more of the same. The underlying trend for the dollar is down.''
...more...
--
Fewer buyers of dollars mean higher interest rates...
The dollar's value falls, but a falling dollar means our exports are more compe ive in the global market.Speculative traders in Chicago last week racked up the highest number of long-euro, short-dollar contracts on record. Options traders have reported brisk business in euro calls - contracts to buy the euro at a pre-determined rate.
However, the market has been rife with rumours that the latest wave of selling has been led by foreign governments seeking to cut their exposure to US assets.
India and Russia have reportedly been selling US assets, as well as petrodollar-rich Middle Eastern investors.
China, which has $515bn of reserves, was also said to be selling dollars and buying Asian currencies in readiness to switch the renminbi's dollar peg to a basket arrangement, something Chinese officials have increasingly hinted at. Any re-allocation could push the dollar sharply lower and Treasury yields markedly higher.
...more at link...
But wait! We've outsourced so many of our manufacturing jobs, we don't make as many things that can be exported. So, we're just sitting here with a currency with less power to buy things that are imported (which is making up a larger and larger share of the products we purchase).
As long as the nations that we owe accept the dollar "notes" in payment, then commerce continues as usual - the difference is that their products go up on price and it takes more dollars to purchase new goods for importation.
Currently, China has it yuan pegged at a specific number (around 8.28) but our illustrious government is hammering on them to let the yuan "float", which will increase the price of goods imported from China.
I really think we're on our way to a big economic crash. Bush and his stooges cannot keep manipulating, juggling and spinning the economic stats for four more years. Too many people will be on to their sham by then.
I really think you are making things much too complex..it's real simple...
Any good news to you, is bad.
Any bad news to you, is good.
We all get it...why confuse yourself?
We've outsourced so many of our manufacturing jobshttp://www.heritage.org/Research/Tra...nAid/wm467.cfmMyth #1: America is losing jobs.
Fact: More Americans are employed than ever before.
The household employment survey of Americans indicates that there are 1.9 million more Americans employed since the recession ended in November 2001. There are 138.3 million workers in the U.S. economy today—more than ever before
From a job interview I had with tech consulting firm Gartner, the peak of IT outsourcing is predicted to hit in 2008 with 400,000 jobs outsourced. That's hardly killing our economy (granted it is pissing off a few programmers laid off their $80/hour programming jobs).
=================
BTW Dan, you do realize that if the US "empire" were to fail, the entire world economy would collapse and this whole world would go to , right? It's probably something you might want to root against having happen, no matter how much you hate Bush.
Another read for you Dan...
http://www.ncpa.org/pub/ba/ba480/
Countries around the world are outsourcing their jobs to the United States in huge numbers, according to the Organization for International Investment:
* For the past 15 years, corporations have moved jobs to the United States at a faster rate than jobs have left, for an 82 percent increase in insourced jobs compared to a 23 percent increase in outsourced jobs. [See the figure.]
* Manufacturing jobs have been insourced at an even faster pace than service jobs, more than doubling over the period (though beginning from a smaller base).
* Jobs insourced to the United States increased from 4.9 million in 1991 to 6.4 million in 2001.
Your delusional if you think the U.S. has a net insourcing volume total...
Network World FusionThe numbers battle continues: A new study released by a Congress-mandated commission said this week that up to 406,000 U.S. jobs will move to Mexico, China and other countries this year -- almost double the number of jobs lost to production shifts in the global economy in 2001. In fact, during a period between January and March, 48,417 U.S. jobs were offshored to other countries. The issue is that the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that 4,633 private-sector jobs in companies with more than 50 employees were lost during that Jan. to March time period. Those kind of discrepancies keep the politicos on both sides of the offshoring fence firing shots at each other. Cornell University conducted the study at the behest of the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission. A couple of key findings: · Of the do ented jobs that left the United States for other countries in January through March 2004, 23,396 went to Mexico, 8,283 to China, 3,895 to India, 5,511 to Latin American countries other than Mexico, 4,419 to Asian countries other than China and 2,933 to other countries. · The U.S. Midwest lost the most jobs to outsourcing (18,968) from January through March 2004. Other U.S. regions that lost a lot of jobs were the Southeast (8,604) and Northeast (7,223). The states hardest hit were Illinois (7,555 jobs lost) and Michigan (5,283 jobs lost).
For one thing, how many of said jobs were minimum wage type jobs?
Second, why am I stupid? Because you found some fest study on some abstract web site that says so?
Why does that trump the study I linked to? Because you say so? Whatever.
I think I'll run with the National Center for Policy Analysis over your "Network World Fusion."
I think I'll go with my what I see with my own eyes and manufacturing in the Midwest ain't looking to good.
Dan's eyes > Company bottom lines.
Alright...
Dollar going down, Interest rates going up...
Times OnlineSunday Times
DAVID SMITH
STERLING is set to climb to $2 in the coming weeks as the dollar’s slide continues, analysts say.
The dollar sell-off, which intensified following George Bush’s victory in the US presidential election on Tuesday, has already pushed it down to a record low against the euro.
The dollar is set to remain under pressure in spite of a rise in American interest rates, to be announced this week. The Federal Reserve’s open market committee, which has already raised rates three times this year, will announce a hike from 1.75% to 2% on Wednesday. Following strong employment figures, dealers expect the Fed to signal that the “measured pace” of rate rises will continue.
The Bank of England will also provide guidance on its interest-rate strategy when the governor, Mervyn King, presents its quarterly inflation report. With rates at 4.75% and the housing market cooling rapidly, some analysts think the peak has already been reached and that the Bank will be announcing cuts next year.
More:
The U.S. has become so bloated that we are now even net importers of food...
Wall Street JournalSurging Imports Of Food Threaten Wider Trade Gap
U.S. Agriculture Exports, Relied on to Ease Deficit, Feel Heat of Compe ion
By SCOTT KILMAN
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
November 8, 2004; Page A1
America's appe e for imported food is creating problems for the U.S. economy.
Agriculture, one of the few big sectors of the economy that could be counted on to produce trade surpluses, has recently generated monthly deficits -- a development that could worsen the nation's already significant trade imbalance. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the U.S. imported more agricultural goods than it exported in June and August, the first monthly trade deficits since 1986, when the Farm Belt was mired in a depression.
(snip)
But the problem with the widening overall trade deficit is that it is sustainable only as long as foreigners are willing to lend the U.S. large amounts of money. Many economists warn that this isn't likely to continue, and if they're correct, the risks are growing for a market-rattling crash in the value of the dollar. The overall trade deficit widened to $54 billion in August, the most recent monthly figure available. That was the second-biggest gap on record after June's $55 billion.
(snip)
Many supermarket executives learned about importing during the 1990s, when they turned to Chile, Mexico and Argentina for grapes, tomatoes, asparagus and apples to keep their aisles stocked with fresh produce through the dead of the U.S. winter. Now retail executives are trying their hand at more exotic fare, such as Irish marmalade, Scottish cookies and Japanese horseradish powder.
(snip)
About 20% of the beef used by McDonald's Corp. restaurants in the U.S. now is from foreign cattle. A McDonald's spokeswoman said a shortage of lean beef in the U.S. is forcing the company's hamburger suppliers to turn to cattle from Australia and New Zealand.
(snip)
Well if McDonald's is importing, we're obviously doomed.
There's still time for you to jump ship Dan. Hurry, hurry, before it all comes crashing down!
I have taken care of mine, have you taken care of yours? Here it comes...
Yahoo NewsBERLIN (AP) -- The euro surged to an all time high of $1.2987 Monday, putting pressure on Europe's largely export-driven economic recovery and prompting European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet to call the rise "brutal" in an attempt to stem the tide.
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The 12-nation currency broke its previous record of $1.2962, set Friday, riding higher on concerns over oil prices and the U.S. trade and budget deficits.
"The recent moves, which tend to be brutal on the exchange markets between the euro and the U.S dollar, are not welcome from the standpoint of the ECB," Trichet said after a meeting in Basel, Switzerland.
Trichet also used the word "brutal" in a temporarily successful attempt to slow the euro's rise in January.
After the new high Monday morning, the euro dropped to $1.2907 following Trichet's remarks, then climbed back to $1.2955 later in the session.
The euro, launched in 1999, slumped to less than a dollar for about 2 1/2 years between 2000 and mid-2002. It's now 57 percent above its all-time low against the dollar of 82 cents from October 2000.
French Finance Minister Nicholas Sarkozy urged the American government to take action. Speaking in Rome after meeting with the Italian industry minister, Sarkozy said the United States should remember a February statement it signed in Florida with the six other G-7 countries that warned excess exchange rate volatility could hurt economic growth.
"The U.S. must cut its budget deficit: This is an unanimous message from Europe and the International Monetary Fund which we're sending to our American friends," the financial wire Radiocor quoted Sarkozy as saying.
Your delusional...
dan, that's like mouse calling somebody a short .
yeah, who's in denial now? Look I'm just telling you what the tea leaves are saying believe it or not.
these tea leaves are amusing.....keep up the good work.....
We'll see how amusing they are. Hope your ready.
what would you be posting if Kerry had won? same stuff? oh wait...i mean, if Kerry wasn't robbed of the election in FL and OH.....
the high euro to dollar hurts other countries more than they do us. the united states is considered a closed society in terms of world trade bc we are incredibly self-sufficient. in fact, the u.s. is almost the most closed society.
Tea leaves and McDonald's, dan's officially lost it.
by definition an empire is...
The US is not an empire. Iraq has its own government and is having elections in 2005. There cannot be an end to something that does not exist.A political unit having an extensive territory or comprising a number of territories or nations and ruled by a single supreme authority
For God's sake, Nbadanallah! Run! Run! Run! Get out before they close the borders and put us all in re-education camps. Why the are you hanging around, anyway? Canada isn't the only place to go...
The battle is lost and the evil Republicans have control of this country for the foreseeable future. There is no hope, we're all doomed. Doomed I say!
Have a nice trip.
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