Looking at this Spurs team, it's like they can go either way:
If Elson even learns to play halfway decent Defense and Finley, Beno, and Barry play like they did last night against Memphis and Duncan/Parker/Ginobili do their thing, I can see this team overcoming it's shortcomings at going to the Finals. It's not that they don't have the personell to do it. Pop's coaching/subs ution tactics, inconsistent bench play, and lack of defense have hurt the team. However, we've seen glimpses of how great they can be, like in that 3 minute span against Houston the other night.
Nonetheless, I can easily see this same team going the other way. I can see our Big Three doing all the work, Barry or Finley showing up to play (never both), and our lack of defense in the 3rd quarters hurting them in close playoff games.