http://myespn.go.com/blogs/truehoop/...Playoffs-.html
Henry Abbott
ESPN.com TrueHoop
March 13, 2007 5:29 PM
Yesterday I put out a call for some way to measure players who are coasting for at least some of the regular season:
Here's one I've never seen but would love to see: who are the all-time regular season coasters? The guys who just don't play hard for much of the season, saving their knees, and their effort, for the late season and playoffs?
TrueHoop reader and veteran stat junkie Michael Goodman responded with a spreadsheet of stuff that looks really cool, but is hard for my Bachelor of the Arts mind. So I'll let him explain:
PO/RS is Playoff/Regular Season productivity ratio. Both are adjusted for team/opponent pace, year by year. A year with 400 playoff minutes counts 4x as much as a year with 100.
'Net' is calculated by player's (productivity*1.05)*(min/36)*(po/rs) The average po/rs is about .945, so the 1.05 cancels that: Anyone over .945 has a positive net. You may see the player's stats go down -- along with most others' -- but relative to the opponent, his team gains.
Here are the top twenty from his list:
0.945 Net PO/RS POMin Min/36
Robert Horry 555 1.07 6740 187
Tim Duncan 489 1.02 4910 136
Baron Davis 283 1.15 1502 42
Dwyane Wade 240 1.05 2133 59
Manu Ginobili 232
1.05 2253 63
Caron Butler 205 1.24 957 27
Tim Thomas 199 1.12 1705 47
Tayshaun Prince 196 1.03 3165 88
Derek Fisher 182 1.04 3136 87
Paul Pierce 158 1.04 1615 45
Ray Allen 132 1.04 1563 43
Antonio Daniels 126 1.07 1567 44
Richard Hamilton 118 .99 3268 91
Allen Iverson 118 .98 2779 77
Vince Carter 101 1.02 1308 36
James Posey 93 1.10 920 26
Antonio McDyess 91 1.04 1055 29
Kirk Hinrich 90 1.16 520 14
Eric Snow 83 1.00 2212 61
Kenyon Martin 82 .99 2112 59
No one can argue with Robert Horry topping this list. His teammate publicly accused him of as much a couple of years ago. (The only irony there is that the teammate making the accusation is second on this list.)
Shaquille O'Neal, whom I trotted out as the poster boy of taking some time off during the season, comes in 38th. I imagine that's because much of the time when he has been apparently coasting was time when he was on the injured list, and those games, I assume, did not count towards his productivity tally.
In fact, it occurs to me that playing through injuries in the regular season is a great way to get yourself on this list. A lot of the guys here have played at half-speed for stretches of their career. If they had been real coasters, they would have worn street clothes.
I wonder if anyone has a way to further refine this list to get to who it is that is really taking the most time off. (Even Mike himself admits that is not this list: "No," he writes, "I can't call out the 'coasters'. But Tim Thomas is a good start.") There is a difference that I'd like to get at, between Tim Duncan hobbling through almost all of last season on one leg, and whatever it is that Tim Thomas has been doing all these years.
Wow. I just checked out the bottom of the list. These would be people who have been frighteningly productive in the regular season compared to the playoffs. Some of the NBA's bigger playoff disappointments are here, as are several MVP candidates, and some championship winners. The last twenty are:
Jason Kidd, Predrag Stojakovic, Lindsey Hunter, Darrell Armstrong, Radoslav Nesterovic, Brad Miller, Dirk Nowitzki, Chris Webber, Sam Cassell, Brent Barry, Bruce Bowen, Steve Nash, Michael Finley, Kobe Bryant, Tony Parker, Shawn Marion, Dale Davis, Jermaine O'Neal, Clifford Robinson, and (bringing up the rear) Gary Payton.
Notice how San Antonio Spurs are all over the top and the bottom of this list? (Theory: these are the guys who pick up the slack when Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili aren't 100%.)
great article thanks for posting and it really doesn't say anything we didn't already know. Except maybe I thought Bowen was pretty consistent through out the season and post season. Just a lot of 6-12 ppg for him, but I guess not.
Parker really needs to keep it up this year. And bring it for the real season.
That would appear to be partially true....
Nice read.
Man, ESPN better not up TrueHoop.
Caron Butler
Tim Thomas
Tayshaun Prince ????
LOL
No one can argue with Robert Horry topping this list. His teammate publicly accused him of as much a couple of years ago. (The only irony there is that the teammate making the accusation is second on this list.)
thanks for posting this article.
I'm kind of surprised though about Dirk's. Dirk is playing hungrier than ever this season, IMO.
is this really accurate? where IS Lebron?
good article. results are obviously skewed by players who haven't had much playoff experience, like Lebron and Baron Davis.
Not surprised by TD, Horry, and Manu coming up as some of the biggest playoff performers. I'm sort of surprised Kobe's not on the list, and surprised Shaq and Tony Parker scored so low. I'm thinking in the case of Parker, though, that it's probably skewed by the a couple bad playoffs he had - I think it was his first or second year. He seems to be getting stronger each playoffs, though.
Finley and Barry scoring so low worries me, but those stats are mostly from previous teams, so I hope they buck the trend this year. We'll need them.
So, two of the team's "Big 3" turn it up more in the playoffs than ANY other players? And the only person who turns the switch MORE than them is coming off of the bench?
Bodes well.
Where's Wade on the list?
Robert Horry 555 1.07 6740 187
Tim Duncan 489 1.02 4910 136
Baron Davis 283 1.15 1502 42
Dwyane Wade 240 1.05 2133 5
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