Regardless how the playoffs turn out, what happens? We know Horry will retire but what about the contracts for Beno, Oberto and Ely? Do we have to keep them? Is it possible somebody wants them? I figure Barry might be trade bait again. Im for keeping Vaughan, Finley, Bonner, Butler and White. No need to comment on Tim, Tony, Manu, Bruce and even Elson.
Ely is a FA, Beno is under contract, and Oberto has a player option in his contract. Finley also has a player option. White and Horry's contracts aren't fully guaranteed and both can be cut with minimal penalty, but White's could be picked up for minimal penalty too (under $1M).
EDIT: Bonner is also a FA
Excluding Duncan, Parker, Ginobili, Elson, Bowen and Finley (who are all under contract and will be retained almost without a thought) I say:
Udrih - This guy is dead space. 100% chance hes traded to the highest bidder (maybe a 2nd rounder of two?)
Vaughn - This guy has been great as of late. Hes a very solid player despite his age. Somebody else might notice his quality play and offer him a slightly longer contract than the Spurs. This is the only threat to his return. 10% chance that Vaughn leaves.
White - Plays in summer league and does well. Stays with the team (under contract anyways).
Barry - Chances of a trade are definitely there. If White looks vastly improved chances increase. 50% chance of trade (good vet, expiring contract = value).
Oberto - Chances of a buyout are definitely there. Trading him is probably unlikely as his value is low. However, he knows the system and is relatively cheap. 20% chance hes not on the team next season.
Bonner - I think the Spurs would love to keep this guy. His hustle is excellent and he would seem to be an appropriate replacement to the (likely) retiring Horry. But, Bonner will likely be looking to cash in a bit as this next contract will likely carry him over the age of 30. The Spurs might not be offering enough for him to come back. 40% chance that hes gone.
Ely - Unless he shows something phenomenal in the next few weeks, I doubt hes back. If Butler continues to impress in gargabe time then his chances go down further. 90% chance that hes gone.
Butler - Its really all up to him. If he continues to slim down and look good in garbage time (and later in summer league) I think they'll continue to give him a shot. Chance hes gone, 50%.
Fair assessment, Dark. Ely is gone, Horry will retire. There is a fair to long chance Oberto goes back to Europe. I think Bonner will be a Spur for the next few years. White, to my surprise, looks like he may be kept. Butler is iffy - not sure anyone wants him, but he is cheap. Barry could possibly and finally be traded in a package of some kind. Vaughn I see resigned. Udrih, now, I'd love to trade to get rid of him, but next year he'll be at $1.7m and I'm not sure anymore a team would like him.
I think Udrih and White's status will depend on who the Spurs bring in this summer...
Udrih was dead space at the deadline too, but the Spurs didn't trade him then. The Spurs won't get rid of him for nothing (2nd round pick) unless they've got someone in the wings (Gabe Pruitt, Dominic James, Darren Collison, etc)....
White should be able to stick with this team because of his friendly contract, but the Spurs also might have a roster pinch and if the Spurs draft another G/F, one of the two might not make it out of camp...
Bonner is restricted? That's news to me.
I assume "Limited Salary Protection" means the salaries for those players isn't fully guaranteed and the Spurs could drop them for less than the full cost of their contracts....is that right?
SpursDynasty is gone after this season...that's the rumor I'm hearing...
Butler continue to slim down?
How much more weight should he lose
Dudes thin right now. Hes just a "big" guy. Thats all there is to it.
Maybe its better to say "if he stays slim" and doesn't relapse.Butler continue to slim down?
How much more weight should he lose
Dudes thin right now. Hes just a "big" guy. Thats all there is to it.
White- plays well in the summer league, assumes a tentative backup role at the beginning of the season. He has a stretch of good games as a result of increased playing time due to an injury to Bowen. After Bowen's return (to the starting lineup), White comes off the bench with Manu, providing a secondary spark, and creating one of the most potent second units in the league.
Barry- Spurs package him with Beno (who is then promptly cut by the new team) in a sign-and-trade for Pietrus or other like-minded SG/SF. The new shooting guard will be a defensive player, helping take the pressure off the aging Bowen. The Spurs will see a decrease in scoring, but an increase instances of suffocation.
Oberto- Spurs retain him as a backup, simply because he knows the system. Spurs fans collectively groan.
Vaughn- Gets offered more money elsewhere. Spurs fans collectively groan.
Butler- During the off-season, it occurs to popovich that a post who can score might at some point be valuable. He stays as a reserve, with his playing time fluctuating based upon the matchups. Will see short stints on injured reserve.
Ely- Experiment over. The spurs inevitably overhaul their roster every year, or at least the bench, and Ely will become part of this process.
Bonner- He'll be back. Spurs want him, Pop loves him. Bonner is the first big off the bench.
Mahinmi/Scola/Javtokas- One of them gets brought over, Spurs fans wet themselves. South I-35 is wagging in anticipation. This excitement, though, is short-lived, as the chosen player sees sporadic minutes as a backup and fails to live up to expectations.
We need to replace Bowen. He's good for this year, but how many more years? I think this year is the start of his decline, and next year it will be very noticeable (he will suck, whereas this year he's still pretty good).
Go after Stephen Graham. Sit him on our bench and let him learn from Bowen.
His TWIN BROTHER Joey Graham is doing very well with Raptors now. He's learning and improving. Athletic like a monster, never loses a jump ball (easily won one against taller Brendan Haywood).
These Graham brothers were defensive minded people coming out of college.
Father always said Stephen was better than Joey, but Stephen got no playing time in the NBA so nobody noticed (he's in the D league now, and Houston doesn't want him).
These brothers are quick, freakishly athletic and built like Lebron. Dump Beno and sit Stephen Graham down on our bench. Let Bowen teach him and give him playing time during blowouts, garbage time, etc.
You forgot about Finley....he'll be in the rotation too, so I doubt White gets more than 10mpg, unless the Spurs trust him enough to eat into Bowen's minutes.
Also, if the Spurs dump Barry it will be to get a player worth the money that can actually contribute right now and is moderatly younger....think Nocioni/Wallace. There's no way the Spurs sacrifice the cap relief Barry's contract will bring for a developmental/unproven guy.
Would love for roster to look like this next year:
1. TP-law(rookie)-FA
2. Manu-Finley-White
3. Bowen-pietrus
4. TD-Scola
5. Elson-Butler
I am so trired of hearing about Scola. Spurs needs to get his butt over here already and see what he's got or send him elsewhere and put him in the past.
Tough to see Law falling to the Spurs and tough to see both Pietrus and Scola joining the roster given the lack of $$ (MLE only) the Spurs have to spend. If you're thinking sign-and-trade, it would have to be an even $$ swap as both will be over the cap...also hard to see.
Pietrus should be cheaper than barry and it is very possible that law could fall 15-20 range (meaning the spurs would need to move up). All of this means that barry would be traded (and his 5+ million contract)
Duncan=19.015, TP=10.5, Manu=9.08, Bowen=4.12, Elson-3,Finley=3.1,Butler=2.4,White=427K
These 8 guys will be back and their total salaries will be about 51-52 million (give or take a little bit).
Barry 5.5, Horry 3.6, Oberto 2.5, udrih 1.7 = 13.3 million
These 4 and their contracts will hopefully be cut, retired, or traded.
This years salary was about 65 million. This gives the spurs about 13-14 million to fill 4 active roster spots and possible 3 IR spots.
The Spurs will be over the salary cap....they will have the standard MLE (little more than $5M) to work with
The Spurs should have over half of what you suggest in cap space in 08, provided they don't spend their MLE this summer or sign any current player beyond the 08 season. You're numbers are off though...
If the Spurs move into the 15-20 range, I wish they'd go after a SF instead of Law.
I really doubt Law last very long. People are already comparing him to Billups, and Im sure that a lottery team that needs a point will take him. And I agree, a sf would be great, ONLY if they think White cant get the job done. If they do feel they have a good thing in WHite, I would love to see them draft a big, or even a shooting guard (Bellineli).
Again I think Pietrus is intriguing, but I don't see it logistically. I don't think Pietrus is necessarily cheaper. If the Spurs wanted to sign him to a $4M per year deal (which would then eliminate them from bringing Scola over), why wouldn't he just take the one-year deal for a $1M less and be an unrestricted FA the following year?
It's just a better play if he signs the qualifying offer and waits for big-money players in '08.
Then you have the issue of who the Warriors include in the deal if it's a S&T for Pietrus (at $4M or whatever) with Barry going out....who is the $2M man on the Warriors that makes the money even?
I think a more likely (but still far-fetched) S&T idea is signing Andres Nocioni to a 3yr $18-21M deal and trading Barry straight up (or including Scola if necessary). That way the Spurs get a guy who can play the small ball 4 and/or even start at the 3 (shifting Bowen over to two-guard), and the Bulls get an expiring contract to use in future deals for a guy like Jermaine O'Neal, Kevin Garnett, Pau Gasol, etc.
On Law, right now he's the only legitimate first-round point guard in the draft, as Conley/ Lawson/ Augustin/ Crittendon have not declared and Dominic James is on the bubble....surely Law will go in/near the lottery.
On drafting a SF, if the Spurs can get their hands on a 3/4-type SF then I don't think there's a conflict with keeping that player AND White...two players that serve two different purposes.
EDIT: I also wouldn't mind them drafting a SG prospect as Barry/Finley likely won't be on the team in 08 and Ginobili getting into his 30s
Last edited by AFBlue; 04-10-2007 at 03:14 PM.
I'm placing him, tentatively, as a starter, with Manu coming of the bench. Although that is likely to reverse, since if White takes over the "spark" role, there will be no need to delay Manu a bit into the 1st quarter like the spurs currently do.You forgot about Finley
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