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Just for emphasis.Obviously Bowen is a fantastic one-on-one defender, and considering he had the best per-minute and overall "points saved" scores in the league this year, apparently he hasn't lost much at 35.
Did a quick scan and didn't see this posted. Spurs do incredibly well in his analysis. Also gives serious props to Bowen and Duncan.
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insid...CMP=ILC-INHEAD
Rating defensive players is one of the most challenging areas for a basketball analyst, and one in which I continue to beat my head against my desk looking for a solution.
However, in the quest to better understand an individual's contributions, I would argue that having some information is usually preferable to having none. With that in mind, I used what limited data we do have to rate the league's top defensive players on their performance this season. Then, with those numbers in hand, I've chosen all-defensive teams and a defensive player of the year.
Let me try to quickly explain how this works. For years now, folks like 82games.com have given us an "off-court vs. on-court" measurement of a player's defensive value, showing the difference between the two over 100 possessions. The on-court part is straightforward, obviously -- the number of points allowed while the player is on the court.
But the off-court part always bothered me, especially for players who missed time due to injury. If one compares on-court vs. off-court in any given game, that's at least an apples-to-apples comparison with a fairly steady control group (the teammates and opponents). But all that goes out the window in games a player misses -- not only are all the opponents different, but thanks to injuries, suspensions, trades and the like, often the teammates are as well. So instead of apples-to-apples, you often get apples-to-oranges. Sometimes it's not even that close -- more like apples-to-orangutans.
To adjust for this, I used something called "expected points." The idea is to take the minutes a player played in each game, multiply it by the team's points allowed in that game, and compare it to how many points the team actually gave up with the player on the court. From that, we determine his defensive value by the difference between "expected points" and the actual points -- something I call "points saved."
Is this perfect? Good heavens, no. For starters, the "bad backup effect" plays an important role -- in other words, it's a lot easier to look good in this if you're splitting minutes with Matt Carroll than it does if you're splitting them with Alonzo Mourning.
Second, there's other info that doesn't get through -- for instance, the impact of the four teammates the player shares the court with. As we'll see with some Spurs players in a moment, this can have an especially big effect on secondary players who share the court with a great defender or two.
For those reasons, I've included a heavy subjective element in my all-defense teams too. I've seen all these teams play start-to-finish at least 10 times, so I have a pretty good feel for what they've been doing, and in cases where I go against the numbers I've been sure to explain why. One other caveat: I only used games through April 9, since I didn't want the rampant tanking in the final week to be a factor in the rankings.
So, as imperfect as it may be, here's one man's shot at choosing all-defense teams for this year (for each player, the rating is listed first as points saved per 40 minutes, second as points saved on the season):
POINT GUARDS
Honorable mention: Tony Parker, Spurs; Jason Kidd, Nets; Chauncey Billups, Pistons; Jarrett Jack, Trail Blazers.
Parker had the best overall points saved at the position (4.6 per 40 minutes, 285.1 for the season), but that's pushing it. You'll notice that teammates Manu Ginobili, Bruce Bowen and Tim Duncan also had very high scores, and the answer why is pretty clear -- Tony and Manu are riding Bowen and Duncan's defensive coattails since they're usually on the court at the same time. Parker is an underrated defender, actually, but we have to take his score with a grain of salt here.
The coaches probably will vote Billups (3.2, 199.7) and Kidd (2.1, 146.6) to the team, because that's what they do every year, and both certainly have their strong points -- they're big enough to defend shooting guards and Kidd is as good as anyone at bothering post players while still getting back to his man. But both have trouble with small, quick guards, which is why a couple of other guys rate higher. Jack (2.1, 146.6) is an up-and-comer who also warrants mentioning.
Third team: Baron Davis, Warriors (3.3, 172.2)
As weird as it feels to put up a Warrior for all-defense consideration, Davis combines the size of Kidd and Billups with the quickness to pressure the ball and create havoc in passing lanes.
The only caveat here is that he didn't dial up the intensity every night, especially when Golden State played its five-guys-stand-around-and-watch version of zone defense; that's why two other players ended up ahead of him.
Second team: Rajon Rondo, Celtics (5.3, 213.8)
I have a feeling he's going to be on this list for many, many years. Rondo's cat-like quickness and surprising length make him a capable defender at either backcourt spot, and help make up for his obvious deficiencies at the offensive end.
I'm a little skittish about ranking Rondo this high when he played so much less than the others, but per-minute he was No. 1 among point guards in points saved.
First team: Devin Harris, Mavericks (4.4, 217.9)
What's so impressive about Harris' performance is that he did much of it while playing out of position. Paired with Jason Terry in a small backcourt, Harris often had to defend opposing shooting guards.
At 6-foot-3 with a slight build, this was a challenge, but Harris' quickness and determination helped him overcome it. Should the Spurs and Mavs meet in the conference finals, the faceoff between him and Parker -- two of the league's quickest players -- should be especially entertaining.
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SHOOTING GUARD
Honorable mention: Raja Bell, Suns; Trenton Hassell, Timberwolves; Manu Ginobili, Spurs; Kirk Hinrich, Bulls.
Bell (2.1, 148.7) is a master thespian and the best in the league at drawing offensive fouls away from the ball. As distasteful as it might be that ref-baiting plays such a huge role in his arsenal, one must admit it's effective. That said, I think a few guys are a little better at on-ball defense.
Ginobili (4.2, 209.9) is a seriously underrated defender and perhaps the league's best at deflecting passes thrown by his man, but as with Parker his score overstates his contribution considerably thanks to Bowen and Duncan.
Hinrich (0.9, 61.0) has a great reputation but gets hurt here because he defends shooting guards almost exclusively; he'd probably rate much better if he could defend the point.
Hassell (1.5, 80.5) looked like the next Bowen three years ago but has slipped a bit since.
Third team: Kobe Bryant, Lakers (3.2, 254.4)
I'm as surprised by this one as you are; I had always felt Bryant turned it on and off at the defensive end, but apparently it was on a lot more than it was off this year.
His numbers were fairly impressive considering all the heavy lifting he was doing at the other end, and the fact that he came into the year cold after recuperating from knee surgery.
Second team: Anthony Parker, Raptors (3.4, 198.8)
One of the year's biggest surprises was that Parker was able to come over from Europe and establish himself as a defensive stopper right away.
He helped the Raptors post a substantial defensive improvement that led directly to their Atlantic Division le.
First team: Bruce Bowen, Spurs (7.1, 426.3)
Obviously Bowen is a fantastic one-on-one defender, and considering he had the best per-minute and overall "points saved" scores in the league this year, apparently he hasn't lost much at 35.
I cheated a little by putting him at shooting guard instead of small forward, because there wasn't an overwhelming first-team candidate here and there were several at small forward.
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SMALL FORWARD
Honorable mention: Rasual Butler, Hornets; Josh Howard, Mavericks; Ron Artest, Kings; Shawn Marion, Suns.
A lot of people have talked up Marion (1.4, 98.2) for Defensive Player of the Year, but I think this overstates his case considerably. Above average? Sure. Excellent? Maybe. Elite? C'mon. While I agree it's impressive that Marion can take turns at power forward despite standing 6-7 and weighing 43 pounds, and that his ability to do so helps fuel the Suns' fast-break attack, there are better defenders at his position.
Howard (2.5, 147.7) is a strong defender on a team laden with other solid defenders, which means the numbers may understate his contribution. Unfortunately, small forward is a very crowded field this year so he still doesn't make the cut.
Artest (2.2, 140.1) made a huge impact on the Kings' defense a year ago but his focus seemed to wander on some nights this season, preventing him from cracking my top three. Also, it sure seems to me like he was more effective before the hand-checking rules came in.
Butler's (4.0, 206.1) numbers are shockingly good, but there's an asterisk: He played a lot fewer minutes than some of the other guys on this list, and a lot of it came when the Hornets stopped running and just tried to bore opponents into submission. He would have cracked the list at shooting guard, but not here.
Third team: Luol Deng, Bulls (2.8, 204.9)
In a mild upset, Deng had the best numbers of any Chicago defender; since the Bulls lead the league in defensive efficiency, that's no mean feat. (Side note: Chicago was third during the compe ive part of the season, but passed Houston and San Antonio in the past couple of days.)
Deng's numbers make sense, though -- though unspectacular, his size (6-9, 220 pounds) and quickness make him a tough guy to get shots against, and he's big enough to defend the power forward spot when Chicago goes small.
Second team: Tayshaun Prince, Pistons (2.7, 196.8)
It's ironic that he's known best for a shot block, because the 6-9 string bean actually isn't much of a shot-blocker -- just 0.7 per game for his career. But his length allows him to play a step off opponents and still bother their shots, and he's quick enough to defend smaller players on switches without a problem.
Minus Big Ben and with Rasheed at less than full strength, Prince's contributions were more notable than ever this season.
First team: Shane Battier, Rockets (4.4, 322.7)
Among perimeter players, Bowen is the best one-on-one defender, but Battier is the best team defender. It's tremendously helpful to have a small forward who can guard the opponent's best player, then sink down in rotation and block a shot underneath or get a steal in the passing lanes.
Battier is also a master of taking charges, and his ability to slide over to the power forward spot and defend just as effectively makes Houston that much more flexible.
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POWER FORWARD
Honorable mention: Tony Battie, Magic; Kevin Garnett, Timberwolves; Jorge Garbajosa, Raptors; Rasheed Wallace, Pistons.
Wallace (2.4, 142.2) would be a second-teamer most years but wasn't always in shape or fully healthy this season, somewhat reducing his contribution.
Garnett (2.2, 167.7) is annually outstanding, of course, and could just as easily have been a third-teamer, but I was a little surprised his numbers weren't better considering the bad backup effect should have really helped him.
Garbajosa (3.1, 146.7) was Toronto's frontcourt stopper for much of the year and often found himself checking small forwards in a huge frontcourt (with Chris Bosh and Andrea Bargnani or Bosh and Rasho Nesterovic), making it even more impressive that he put up such good numbers.
Battie's numbers were excellent (4.2, 157.3) but he also missed a big chunk of the season, so I had to grudgingly leave him off the third team.
Third team: Anderson Varejao, Cavaliers (2.8, 131.7)
The Cavs were a pleasant surprise at the defensive end this season, ranking fourth in defensive efficiency, and Sideshow Bob was a huge reason why. Varejao's penchant for drawing charges is becoming the stuff of legend, although refs may be catching on to his embellishments.
But the less-recognized defensive talent of Varejao's is the ability to switch out against smaller players on screen-and-roll plays and hold his own.
Second team: Chuck Hayes, Rockets (6.8, 282.5)
Perhaps the most underrated defender in basketball at this point, Hayes is way undersized for a power forward (6-6) but is so strong and determined that it doesn't matter. Several opponents have tried to take advantage of the height differential against him on the blocks; few have succeeded, mostly because they can't move an inch against him.
The one thing Hayes (and Jason Collins, below) gets docked for is that he can use his fouls recklessly because he's not an important star -- a luxury the two first-teamers in the frontcourt don't have. That makes it much easier for him to post impressive per-minute numbers.
First team: Tim Duncan, Spurs (5.8, 384.8)
Yes, I'm cheating again -- I'll get to the reason why in a minute. Suffice it to say we had two centers worthy of being on the first team and no deserving power forwards. Duncan doesn't get mentioned a lot in Defensive Player of the Year debates because he has zero flair to his game, but his defensive numbers were ridiculously good.
As I keep saying year after year, his ability to block shots without ever leaving his feet or getting caught out of position is both incredibly impressive and vastly underrated. It's also part of the reason why Bowen can be so aggressive on the perimeter -- he knows Timmy's got his back.
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CENTER
Honorable mention: Ben Wallace, Bulls; Emeka Okafor, Bobcats; Alonzo Mourning, Heat; Dwight Howard, Magic.
At any other position these guys would be second-teamers at least, but the compe ion is just too tough here. Big Ben (2.0, 127.2) has won Defensive Player of the Year four times but slipped noticeably this season; nonetheless, he's made Chicago even more of a defensive force and has them primed for a deep playoff run.
Okafor (1.8, 100.5) gets forgotten in this discussion, but his play in the first half of the season was positively monstrous. Unfortunately, injuries limited him down the stretch.
The same can be said for Mourning (3.1, 118.2), who was dominant in spurts while Shaquille O'Neal was out of the lineup but seemed to run out of gas right as Shaq returned.
Howard (2.8, 199.6) is a rising force at the defensive end with his size and shot-blocking skill; another year of learning the angles might get him into the top three.
Third team: Marcus Camby, Nuggets (2.3, 132.4)
I've heard a lot of clamoring for Camby to win Defensive Player of the Year. Frankly, I'm not seeing it. The gist of the argument is that the Nuggets would be a horrible defensive team without him, but Camby's numbers aren't overwhelming. Incidentally, it's become common of late to say the Nuggets are a terrible defensive team, but they're not -- they just play at a fast pace so they give up a lot of points.
Yes, it would be great if A.I. and Melo didn't gamble for steals on every play, but the other guys are pretty solid. Regardless, Camby has much more in common with the Mournings and Okafors in the honorable mention pool than with Duncan and the next two centers.
Second team: Jason Collins, Nets (6.3, 272.7)
Collins doesn't get enough credit for his defense because (a) he doesn't block any shots, and (b) Nets fans are usually too busy complaining about his rancid offense. Nonetheless, he's a major force.
Nobody defends Shaquille O'Neal better, and he's the best big man this side of Anderson Varejao at moving his feet into position to take a charge against a driving guard. There's nothing flashy about it, but he's incredibly effective because he does everything right. Now if only he could make a basket once in a while.
First team and Defensive Player of the Year:
Jermaine O'Neal, Pacers (5.2, 307.4)
O'Neal is unlikely to get many votes for this award because of the Pacers' decline, but that would be a shame. Indiana's collapse came mostly at the offensive end because the Stephen Jackson trade and subsequent injury to Marquis Daniels left them completely devoid of a wing player who could create his own shot; as a direct result, Indiana finished last in offensive efficiency.
But defensively? O'Neal was a monster.
For starters, only Duncan, Bowen and Battier had more points saved on the season. Moreover, the bad backup effect was actually working against him most of the time -- Jeff Foster is no slouch himself. Statistically, O'Neal blocked nearly 2.6 shots a game and usually defended the opponents' top post scorer. Most amazingly, he did this while limping around on a bad wheel during the second half of the season, putting an exclamation point on his considerable determination to right the Pacers' sinking ship. Unfortunately, he couldn't save them, but his efforts shouldn't go unrecognized.
John Hollinger writes for ESPN Insider. To e-mail him, click here.
Just for emphasis.Obviously Bowen is a fantastic one-on-one defender, and considering he had the best per-minute and overall "points saved" scores in the league this year, apparently he hasn't lost much at 35.
Interesting about Jermaine O'Neal. I think he probably won't get more than one or two votes for DPOY.
It's pretty awesome that all of our starters (except center) were named in that article.
Bowen sucks. As long as the league lets him continue to hack he will make these lists.
The hand check rule has made was Bowen does even that much more impressive.
His take on Oneal makes me want the Spurs to make a run at trading for him this off season, if at all feasible. I wouldn't mind seeing the Spurs play the way they were meant to play next season.
I want the Spurs to use this as their targets to acquire list. There are lots of unheralded stars that might make our team much better on here.
Wow, O'Neal for DPOY? Over Duncan or Bowen?
Hmmm.
Well he says it's hard to decide on defensive stats. And he does give Duncan and Bowen their due. So while I would give the award to Bowen, just because he's gotten shafted the past 2 years - I don't have a problem with Hollinger's analysis. Like he says though - no way O'Neal gets it.
Doesn't Duncan play PF?
As a Jermaine O'Neal fantasy owner this year (I know, always a bad start to a post), let me attest that he was quite the shotblocker this year.
Jermaine O'Neal may be a great defender, but no way should a team that has sucked as much as the Pacers have get the DPOY award. It should be Bowen or Duncan this year. It should be an obvious choice. But then again, it should have been the last few years, and they managed to screw it up then.
Devin Harris
Again, it's an interesting stat. And unlike PER, Hollinger actually seems to try to put some thought behind it's interpretation rather than just throwing the number out there like it's the be-all and end-all.
What makes Bruce's number most impressive, though, is that he is one of only 2-3 guys on this list who EVERY night is guarding the other team's best perimeter scorer.
Oh, yeah, and aaronstempler is going to hate this stat.
One way to gauge the impact of a defensive player is to take the season average of the players he had guarded and compare that to what those offensive players did while being guarded by the defensive player, projected to 48 minutes,
Then take the team stats, and compare that with and without the defensive player in the lineup.
In other words, it requires an incredible amount of data, almost minute by minute data, and I just do not have access to that. It would be a fun project if I ever get my hands on it, and I would be proud to say I am helping destroy the joys of pointless sports bar conversation.
BTW, I would give it to Bowen. It has been a relatively weak year for DPoY (unlike last year, when Ben Wallace shouldn't even be in the conversation), and Bowen has kept his defense at similar levels as years past. The Spurs problem this year has not been Bowen's defense, it was everybody else's, especially Duncan's earlier in the year (Duncan has since been a force, but he wasn't that great the first couple of months).
Devin's developed into an outstanding man and team defender, and has become a steal/block wizard.
He's done quite well this season.
Devin Harris
Who?
Devin Harris is challenging the le as best defensive flopper in the league. The top four in no particular order are Harris, Derek Fisher, Raja Bell and Shane Battier. Of power forwards and centers, Reggie Evans tops the list as best flopper.
Add Manu Ginobili to that list as well.
Since when has being DPOY meant that you have to have a great team? This isnt the MVP award.
DPOY is still an award that's voted on, and that will influence voters. And, much like offensive stats, defensive stats for a crap team especially when they are collected in blowout games during meaningless gametime mean less than defensive stats collected during pressure moments in close games. DPOY doesn't have to be on a great team, but I'm sure it helps a player's chances if he's not only on a great team but specifically on a great defensive team. Shawn Marion probably won't get much pub for DPOY either. I think Gerald Wallace should be a top candidate. But, for similar reasons, they likely won't.
Since when has it NOT been given to someone who was at least playing for a playoff-bound team?
Wrong. Manu hasn't been flopping on D for quite some time. Pop told him it was hurting more tha helping, not getting the call and letting the man by him. Pay attention if you want to play.
Harris on the other hand ... He's on his back more than Paris.
Yeah, Manu has cut back on his overall defense intensity, which is good and bad. Good because he doesn't gamble as much and plays more sound overall defense. Bad because he doesn't cause the havoc he used to cause.
Overall I'll take it though because sound defense > flashy defense.
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