Two years ago at this time, the Spurs were celebrating their fourth straight win over George Karl’s Nuggets, after dropping the first game of the series at home to a team widely considered the hottest bunch in the West entering the playoffs. The cir stances surrounding this year’s first round matchup for the Spurs were eerily similar… almost indistinguishable from 2005. And the results were exactly the same.
Now, as was the case two years earlier, the road to the Finals winds through Phoenix. The only difference: no Seattle sandwich. But the similarities aren’t confined to the playoff bracket. The fact is, these teams aren’t all that different from the Phoenix and San Antonio squads that met 2 seasons earlier in the Conference Finals. Sure there are differences. But less has changed than has remained the same.
The Phoenix Suns feature a controlled-chaotic offense, led by Steve Nash, Amare Stoudemire, and Shawn Marion… just as they did in 2005.
Two years ago, Joe Johnson and Quentin Richardson were the Suns’ best ballers not named Nash, Marion, or Stoudemire. This year, it’s Barbosa and Bell. But if you compare the production of the Johnson/Richardson combination in 2005 to Barbosa/Bell this year, you’ll find virtually identical numbers.
Speaking of virtually identical numbers…
In 2005, Phoenix scored 110.4 points a game, while their opponents scored 103.3 per contest. They went 62-20 that year with a 7.1 point differential.
This year, Phoenix scored 110.2 per game. Their opponents: 102.9 per game. Phoenix’s 2007 record was 61-21 with a 7.3 differential.
Hmmm…
Having chronicled the similarities, I should point out that the Suns have a slightly better assortment of role players than they did a couple years back, and they are certainly a more experienced team this time around. While they are largely the same team as they were in 2005, these improvements will help them avoid another short series with San Antonio.
The Spurs have also recast many of their supporting roles, while continuing to spin on the same Tim/Tony/Manu axis they have for years now. And they certainly haven’t altered their defense-first basketball theology.
I do believe the Spurs are a little better offensive team than they were 2 seasons ago with the addition of Michael Finley, and Brent Barry finally earning his paycheck when he's on the floor. I also feel they match up a little better against a team like Phoenix, now that they have a more mobile front line. But like the Suns, this basketball team hasn’t made any structural changes within the last 2 years. The core of this Spurs team remains the same.
In 2004-2005, the Spurs scored 96.2 points per game, while holding their opponents to 88.4 per contest. They went 59-23, with a 7.8 point differential.
This year, the Spurs scored 98.5 points per game, while limiting opponents to 90.1 ppg. They went 58-24 this season with an 8.4 point differential.
Opponents scoring was up 1.7 ppg from 2005, but that should be attributed to early-season defensive underachievement, which the Spurs later rectified to once again finished tops in opponents ppg and opponents FG%.
BOTTOM LINE:
As was the case 2 years ago, an up-tempo game doesn’t bother the Spurs at all, but they will try to slow it down because while the Spurs can play at any speed, Phoenix is NOT comfortable playing grind-out basketball. The Spurs are far better equipped to handle a frantic pace than the Suns are equipped to play a half-court game.
One of San Antonio’s greatest advantages will be their ability to push Phoenix outside their comfort zone. That is something Phoenix can’t do to San Antonio, because the Spurs aren’t at all uncomfortable in an up-tempo game… as they’ve proven numerous times in recent years, including their near sweep of the Suns two seasons ago.
Really folks, these teams aren’t all that different from what they were the last time they met in the post-season… and I don’t expect a drastically different result.
Spurs in 6.
Last edited by Kent_in_Atlanta; 05-05-2007 at 11:52 AM.
i agree with your spurs in 6 assessment... should be very close though.
and once again... even though stern tried his damndest to stop this from happening again. possibly the best series in the playoffs is going to be in the WCSF once again.
(aside from the Mavs/GS series... because in all honesty no matter what happens that will be the one most talked about)
Yeah... how could it NOT be the most talked about? I would have paid real money to sit close to Mark Cuban when it became apparent to him that the Mavs were about to be eliminated by the 8-seed. REAL MoNEY! I would have treasured the look on his face the rest of my days.
7 game series in my opinion but it should be fun to watch.
Good analysis. I agree with it and my head says the Spurs in 6 (maybe 7)... but there's something about this Sun's team that seems different to me but I just can't put my finger on it yet. So my gut says Suns in 7. I'm sure I'll have a different opinion after I see how the Spurs adjust after game 1. D'Antoni doesn't make adjustments so we all know what they're bringing.
Pretty much the way I see it also.
Suns fans keep saying they are a different ballclub now, but numbers don't lie. They are basically the same, as are the Spurs...
I think Spurs finish em off in 6 too.
Spurs in 5
Uh, his name is Joe Johnson, and not Joe Smith. Joe Johnson, and his eye socket was a huge factor in the series. Bell is not one of the best ball handlers, not even close. Amare is a better ball handler than Bell. The best ball handlers are Nash, Diaw, and Barbosa in that order.
Pretty consistent, I'll give you that one.
Until the last game, Finley wasn't a factor in the series. I do however agree with you that the Spurs match up very well against the Suns.
I would agree with you, but the Suns are much better in the half court set than they were two years ago.
Agreed with the comfort zone. You guys need to remember this. As close as you were to sweeping the Suns, we had 4th Quarter leads in all but one of those games. The Suns had no idea how to put games away that year, and if they did, it would have been a much closer series.
These teams are a lot different, in that they are more experienced. Do I think that the Suns will win this series, probably not. I wouldn't look at the 2005 series for what to expect though.
I know what you mean. I had that same gut feeling in 2005. Seriously, I did.
Right you are. Thanks for catching that. I'll change it.
yoooooooooou haaaaaaveeeeeeen't been waaaatchhhhhing !
I agree with you to some extent. The Suns are more experienced, and I do think that will make a difference. I also think the Spurs are a little better and more mobile offensively, so I don't think the Suns have done enough to get an edge on San Antonio... But because they have more experience, I picked this series to go 6, instead of what was in actuality a 4 game series in 2005.
My 2 cents.
As a Suns fan, we overestimate the age and its effect on the Spurs. They are not too old and slow to beat the Suns. They may be older, but they can still play.
Spurs fans onverestimate the extent to which the Suns will struggle in the half court. The Suns are lightyears ahead of where they were two years ago in the half court. Amare/Nash pick and roll is even better while the emergence of Barbosa, a non-factor 2 years ago, gives the Suns a legit off the dribble isolation threat.
The series is going to be really, really close.
Finley WAS a factor in game 5. He played horrible in game 4, and played pretty good in the rest of the series. He wasn't a factor IMO. He didn't turn the game around, he doesn't play defense, and most of his baskets didn't affect the flow of the game. Without Finley in game 5, they don't win that game. The outcome would have been the same with our without him in the rest of the games.
I have been watching. You may want to articulate yourself a little better than that.
he played pretty good defense... who's the one who wasn't watching?
As I mentioned in the previous post... I believe the Suns are more experienced, which includes learning to better adapt to other styles of play. I'm sure they will handle this series better than they did 2 years ago. Again, that's why I said this will go 6 instead of what was essentially a sweep 2 years ago.
As for the age of the Spurs... anyone who thinks its a factor PERIOD overestimates it.
None of the Spurs big-3 are old by any measure. And look at the minutes-per-game played by the Spurs more seasoned veterans throughout the season.
Barry: 21.8
Finley: 22.2
Horry: 16.6
Bruce Bowen was the only "older" player on this team that played as many as 30 minutes, but his role allows him to do that. He doesn't have to play all-out on both ends of the floor. "Play defense, and then go stand in the corner and wait for a pass"... that's pretty much his job description.
Pop knows how to manage a veteran squad, and while he won't say it, he knows that the regular season has very limited meaning. He saves his veterans for this time of year.
I agree with mabber. The biggest downfall for the Suns is D'Antoni's lack of in game adjustments. That will be a huge factor in this series, and one that we might not be able to overcome.
Yeah man... not to pile on, but I also have to say that you're wrong about Finley's defense. Dude plays solid D. He's no Bruce Bowen, but he's solid.
Suns fans don't watch defense.
I guess we have a different definition of good defense. The trapping that was done to Melo as soon as he touched the ball, and Duncan rotating over was absolutely awesome team defense. Finley did not play good man to man defense in the series. We will just have to disagree.
I'm not expected to have my opinion go over well in an opposite team's forum, but I respectfully disagree.
Suns fans watch defense. Ironic that this post came from someone with the username "Obstructed_View"
Suns only have 4 players that were on the 2005 team and one of them didn't even play.
While on offense they play much the same way this is a much different Suns team.
They are deeper, more experienced, and play better defense.
I think those that expect a replay of 2005 are in for a suprise.
Actually, what's ironic is that someone with that name sees more than you do.
By the way, that was really clever to bring that my handle. I think you are the first one to do that. Maybe you should change your handle to "attempts_to_change_the_subject".
I don't expect a replay of 2005. I think the Suns will play better. But the fact of the matter is that the Suns are at their core... essentially the same team.
Nash, Stoudemire, and Marion (all of whom are playing at a level very similar to 05), with 2 other solid players (those 2 names have changed, but production is very similar) and a cast of role players... just like 2 years ago. And the Suns play the exact same brand of basketball they did in 2005.
As I've mentioned, they're a very good team and I think their experience will help them this time around... but this is not a substantially different team.
The Spurs also have changed their frontcourt, backup point guard, and added Michael Finley... so there have definitely been some changes there as well.
But while there have been changes in both camps, these are not substantially different teams from when they last met. The Spurs matched up very well with the Suns then, and they will now.
In 2005 the Suns had no role players.
They had 5 starters (one of which was missing to start the series) and Jim Jackson.
Besides the top three and the coaches offense there is no comparison.
In 2005 the Suns had very little playoff experience and clearly didn't have the intensity and concentration to compete at a conference finals level. After getting there 2 years in a row they are a much tougher mentally and understand much better how hard they have to play to win.
As for the Spurs matching up, they do. They matchup because they are disciplined, don't take bad shots, and help and rotate on defense as well as any team I have seen. Plus they are playoff tested, they have been there and back and don't fold under pressure.
It should be a great series. I expect a 7 game series with both teams winning on the road once. I think, and hope, that the home court will be the difference in a very close series.
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