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i think Marty Burns is one of the few I know who predicted the Spurs to win it all the 2006-07 le before the start of the season.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/200...urs/index.html
The Skinny
The Suns believe their small-ball style of play can win an NBA le. What better way to prove it than by beating the Spurs, a team built around a traditional model of a dominant big man (Tim Duncan) and a stifling defense? It figures to be quite a challenge for Steve Nash (right) & Co. The Spurs entered the postseason as the NBA's hottest team since the All-Star break, having won 23 of 26 before dropping their final three games when they rested their starters. They then dispatched the Nuggets in five games in the first round. San Antonio once again is led by Duncan, the two-time MVP and a force at both ends. He is surrounded by speedy point guard Tony Parker and two-way standout Manu Ginobili to give San Antonio one of the league's most balanced attacks. But while the Spurs can score with any team, they still hang their Stetsons on defense. San Antonio ranked first in the league in points allowed (90.1) and fourth in field goal defense (44.3).
The Suns, meanwhile, counter with an offensive attack among the best in NBA history. Led by Nash, the reigning two-time MVP, Phoenix led the league in scoring (110.2), field goal percentage (49.4), free throw percentage (80.8) and three-point shooting (39.9). With Amaré Stoudemire, Shawn Marion, Leandro Barbosa, Raja Bell and Boris Diaw, the Suns have way more firepower than the Spurs. The real issue will be whether they can defend and rebound enough to prevent San Antonio from controlling the tempo. Phoenix has been better in those areas this season, thanks in large part to the healthy return of Stoudemire, but it remains to be seen if it is enough to get past an elite club such as the Spurs.
The Suns, who are coming off a five-game series win over the Lakers in the first round, certainly know San Antonio well. They met two years ago in Western finals, with the Spurs winning in five games. San Antonio also eliminated Phoenix in the first round in '04. The Spurs have just always been able to defend and control the tempo against Phoenix, and they probably will do so again.
Key Matchup
Amaré Stoudemire vs. Tim Duncan
Though they won't defend each other often, these two heavyweights figure to see a lot of each other. Stoudemire is an absolute beast for the Suns, a 6-10 live wire who can run the floor, score in the low post and drift outside and hit the jumper. His successful return from the knee surgery that kept him out almost all of last season has been one of the NBA's biggest stories this season. With him, the Suns just might have enough of a defensive presence inside to go all the way. Stoudemire also has had success against the Spurs, averaging 30 points and 20 rebounds against them two years ago in the playoffs. But Stoudemire will need to be at his best against Duncan, who remains the gold standard among NBA big men. Duncan bounced back from a subpar campaign of a year ago to post his usual stellar numbers (20 points, 10 rebounds, 2.5 blocks) while anchoring San Antonio's defense. Against Phoenix this year, he averaged 23 points and 14 rebounds. Duncan's ability to use his length and size to keep Stoudemire in check on defense, while taking advantage of Phoenix's small frontcourt at the other end, looms as a major problem for the Suns.
X-Factor
Suns: Leandro Barbosa
The 6-3 guard won the NBA's Sixth Man Award after a regular season in which he averaged 18.1 points on 47.6 percent shooting (43.4 from downtown). He then went out and torched the Lakers with his penetration and deadeye shooting. The Suns will need another big series from the Brazilian Blur (right) to provide a counterpoint to Parker, whose quickness is a key component of the Spurs' attack.
Spurs: Robert Horry
The 6-10 forward, now in his 15th season, averaged career lows in scoring (3.9 points), rebounding (3.4) and shooting percentage (.359), but he is a savvy veteran who can still make an impact. Big Shot Rob was up to his old tricks against the Nuggets, hitting a huge three-pointer at the end of Game 4 to help the Spurs seize command of the series. Against the Suns' small lineup, he could play a key role off the bench.
The Pick
Spurs in six
i think Marty Burns is one of the few I know who predicted the Spurs to win it all the 2006-07 le before the start of the season.
Marty Burns is the only writer I really trust (probably because he is also a closet spurs fan too.) But seriously, there's no bull in his analyses ever. In 2004, He predicted the Spurs would take out the Lakers in 7 (didn't work out that way), but if you read his analyses at the time, it really made sense.
nice article. though I think 6 is generous ill take it
I will be a little surprised if the spurs let the series go to game 6.
though Parker and Barbosa are 2 of the NBA's fastest players I think the real match-up here is who is the better 6th-man?San Antonio once again is led by Duncan, the two-time MVP and a force at both ends. He is surrounded by speedy point guard Tony Parker and two-way standout Manu Ginobili to give San Antonio one of the league's most balanced attacks.
Manu? or Barbosa?
Barbosa may have torched the Lakers but Manu has successfully torched the Suns in the last few games against them as well. It's just up to Raja Bell. If he can up a way to stop Manu bec even if Manu did not shine in the first round against the Nuggets, I think Manu's going to redeem himself in this series.
the lakers had no point guard ... barbosa would have had to have tried to play bad in that series.
exactly
Burns is usually pretty good, but I had to check that whole Amare 30/20 thing. It was 37ppg but his usual pedestrian 9.8 boards.
The other SI analyst posited that if Amare went off, the Suns win. Obviously, he didn't watch 2005. If we play their shooters and take Amare's paint points, we should be good to go.
yeah Amare scoring 40 on us and still they lost in 5
Five games... Book that es!
We've been written off and underestimated before. There's something about a stifling defense that brings a glint of fear and desperation into player's eyes when facing a disruption of their offensive strategy.
I also remember the look of frustration on Nash's face as he got a ration of from the Phoenix coach during our last game with them.
By limiting their total possessions, SA puts enormous pressure on them to make their shots. Most teams collapse under the pressure.
Robert Horry is NOT going to be an X factor in this series. It'll be the scoring of Finley. "Possibly" Barry depending on if Pop adjusts his rotation a bit to fit the Suns play.
Just hope what these analysts are saying would come true, I still feel nervous about this match-up.
Exactly.
Man, I wish I thought this series was going to end as quick as everyone else. I just don't see it happening. I think the Suns can beat us if we aren't careful. The Suns are also a lot better than they were. I do think the Spurs have a very good chance of winning the series, however.
I'm interested to see if Bonner gets any action this series. James White against an athletic Phoenix?
What about the suns are you most concerned about?
High-octane offense. Bell on Ginobili. Barbosa. Kurt Thomas has played decent defense on Duncan (although that was in the regular season). They aren't some fluke like they were in '05. They have experience this time around and they have quality defenders in Bell and Thomas.
What are the chances that the Suns will steal Game 1 tomorrow?
Only when we blow them out in the final minutes of the final game.
i'm hoping that elson has an impact this series by running the floor making the suns frontcourt run on defense and offense thus tiring them out earlier.
I'm figuring.......Manu and Elson played under expections Denver series, team call?
Towards the end of Denver series Elson did more, allowed to insert himself into defensive flow to prep for Sun's series.
Manu doesn't need any preparation, but did see enough action to keep def. moves oiled, although he was checking for burn.
It sounds nice, but conjecture only.
What are the chances the Spurs
steal game 1?
Suns are supposed to win on their own court....right?
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