Reply With Quote
Didn't the Spurs have the largest point differential this year?
Warning: Look at the le before deciding to go furthur!
http://www.covers.com/articles/artic...Art=140475&t=0
Spurning the Spurs: San Antonio got lucky
Thu, May 31, 2007By Julian inson
Should we hand the NBA Championship to the San Antonio Spurs right now?
Based on what I’ve been reading in newspapers and seeing on TV, the NBA Finals are a mere technicality and regardless of what happens in the East, Tim Duncan and the boys will breeze through the Finals like they were strolling down the River Walk.
Even oddsmakers aren’t giving the eventual Eastern Conference champion much of a chance against San Antonio, whether it's the Cleveland Cavaliers or the Detroit Pistons. An oddsmaker from Bowmans.com told me that the Spurs would probably be around -200 to win the series against Cleveland and -170 if the Pistons get through.
I suppose that sounds about right, considering the Spurs have won two of the last four NBA les. But wait a minute. Isn’t this the blue-collar, small-market, low-gear squad that packs about as much star power as the cast of the Surreal World? Isn’t this the team that has proven as attractive to national basketball audiences as a shirts-and-skins game between Meatloaf and Rosie O’Donnell?
In spite of their success, the Spurs have historically been anything but public darlings. Greg Sindall, an oddsmaker with SportsInteraction.com, says bettors still shy away from San Antonio because “they're boring and people don't like boring.”
He's got a point. You know you're not exactly showtime when your star player’s nickname is “The Big Fundamental.”
But all that seems to have changed, at least if you believe what you hear from the media. Slam Magazine said of the consistency of the Spurs, “New teams come, new teams go, but the San Antonio Spurs — like The Dude — abide.” ESPN’s Mark Stein called this year's incarnation, “the best Spurs team they’ve ever had down here.”
Suddenly, everybody wants to sing the praises of this team that had until now gone relatively unheralded. Does that mean that bettors will also have to give a few more points if they want to back the Spurs in the Finals?
Probably.
Is that a bad thing?
Definitely.
Good bettors must have long memories and even though San Antonio has gone 11-4-1 against the spread (ATS) in the playoffs, they barely came out of the regular season with a winning pointspread record, finishing 42-39-1. The reason for that is the same as why the Spurs don’t have a huge fan base – they’re just not flashy enough to run up the score on many teams.
“San Antonio is a great team,” Sindall said when asked about their ability to cover the spread, “but they don't exactly blow teams out regularly. They just seem to do what it takes to win. If they have to score 110 points to beat you a la Phoenix, they will. Or if they have to play a defensive game and beat you with 86 points, they will.”
I know what everyone is probably thinking: “didn’t you see them blow the Jazz out of the water on Wednesday night?”
The answer is, yes, I did. It was an impressive win and a commendable effort to maintain that lead through the entire game, but let’s not forget that that win – and a number of other important Spurs victories during their playoff run – came with a little help from the basketball gods.
Deron Williams had been the catalyst of almost all of the Jazz’s best performances this spring and in a do-or-die Game 5, he was hobbling around the court with a sprained ankle that had been in an air cast before the game.
The Spurs also benefited from lucky breaks when the Mavericks were eliminated in a shocking first-round upset and, if you remember the controversial ending to the second-round series against Phoenix, the Suns were put behind the 8-ball in a crucial Game 6 when Amare Stoudamire and Boris Diaw were suspended.
Sometimes all the bounces just go your way, and that’s what has been happening to the Spurs for the last five weeks. However, if oddsmakers are going to continue to spot their opponents five or six points a game, bettors can’t depend on that luck to hold out forever.
During the regular season, the Spurs were 0-2 ATS when they faced the Cavaliers and 1-1 ATS versus the Pistons.
Keep that in mind as we get closer to the beginning of the NBA Finals, especially if the hype machine keeps building up the Spurs and oddsmakers inflate the pointspreads. If that’s the case, the value might be with the underdogs – as unlikely as that might seem.
Didn't the Spurs have the largest point differential this year?
You would think that someone who was a journalist would know the importance of accurate data...
ok so what other nicknames does he want Tim to have, lets think of some very violent ones ok, cause thats the only thing that works.He's got a point. You know you're not exactly showtime when your star player’s nickname is “The Big Fundamental.”
Tim "stick it up your butt" Duncan
Tim "the assassin" Duncan
Tim "I'll ing kill you with my glare" Duncan??
To be successful, you've got to be good & LUCKY, period.
My first thoughts, as well.
He's just a young pup trying to make a mark in life at a sports betting site. Here are some of his credentials...
http://www.covers.com/articles/colar...?topID=122&t=0
Julian inson eats, sleeps and breathes sports – that probably explains why he’s always so hungry, tired and frequently lightheaded. He’s been dishing the goods on college and pro sports for two years at Covers.com, but he still maintains his lifelong dream of playing on the Professional Candlepin Bowlers Tour.
So WE got lucky b/c Dallas sucks?
Oh and we don't blow people out huh? Well if I had no life I'd go thru the regular season schedule and take note of all the games we won by 10 or more. I guarantee this deadbeat writer that we took more then 10 games with 10+ pts
Solid D- You're great!
I picked up on that as well. Let's get all the history as well: How many championships have Spurs won when they were the regular season #1 seed?
Obviously has been writing too much to watch any games, and hasn't been writing long enough to know what he's talking about.
As much controversy as it generated, one would think that GAME 5 would be indelibly imprinted in the gray matter of all sports fans, much less those who make a profession out of writing about sports.
Thank you. What'd I do?
Just for what it's worth, the Spurs have won 39 games (36 regular season and 3 playoffs) by more than 10 points.
Um.. gambling 101... It's harder for the Spurs to cover the spread than other teams because A) They're the favorite in 95% of their games when no team can win that %, and B) Often when they are the favorite, they are so with a huge number to cover.
Almost any team in the NBA can win a game by 6 points and cover the spread. In many cases winning by that number won't cover for the Spurs.
Judging by our scoring differential I'd say we probably had as many blowouts as anyone, but it's also worth noting that we play our starters less minutes than any good team in the league to keep them fresh for the playoffs. I don't think Pop gives two s about gamblers, and he shouldn't.
You always back things up with facts.Thank you. What'd I do?
It makes your arguements, or your point of view so much easier to understand.
I guess I just find your posts informational.
In this case I knew the guy was bs but I didn't take it furthur to see who he was.
Thanks for doing so.
The only two things that can be considered lucky about our playoff run are the suspensions and Nash's nose incident, which neither were our fault at all. What dumbass thinks that a "healthy" Deron Williams would have made a difference in Game 5? He was still hitting tough shots, and plus, with the way the Spurs came out, his health wouldn't have mattered. The Mavs getting out has nothing to do with luck. Better teams always win seven game series, and as far as I'm concerned, Utah was the best possible team out of that bracket. We have earned our spot in the Finals. We have won huge games on the road and executed so well in fourth quarters. Do you really think any Spurs teams from past years would have fought the way they did in Game 4 in Utah? They weren't getting much calls, and they STILL kept driving and driving and attacking until they forced the refs to call fouls. That's killer instinct. How about stealing HC advantage from the Suns? That's a damn hard task too. Winning Game 5 of that series was tough, even without Stoudemire and Diaw. I think we deserve to be here.
Getting the draft rights to Tim Duncan was good fortune, if not good luck.
Who here is complaining?
WTF? Who reads covers.com anyway?
Come on! we all knew jackasses like this moron would come out with the proverbial * talk because of Williams and Fisher. Losers whine, winners win, period.
I don't ever remember the Spurs whining even when they've lost!
i do... it is real helpful in betting with sports.
but like all sites, sometimes there are bad and good articles.
that's because they're not losers
Tim "that's re ed" Duncan?
Tim "the Wizard" Duncan?
Tim "Brisket Man" Duncan?
Brisket Man is good
As an aside...Dallas was only 41-37 ATS. As the poster above correctly stated, the elite of the league (Dal, SA, Phx) are or were pretty much the fav in every game this season with the exceptions being when the played one another and who had home court.
SA during their championship years have been money in the bank...
11-4 ATS this year
15-8 in '05
15-9 in '03
12-5 in '99
Believe it or not, Toronto (48-33-1) and NO (47-33-2) and Denver (45-36-1) had the best records ATS this year.
What's ATS? Sorry, brain lapse.
There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)
Posting Permissions
