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Who is Merlin?
Tale of the Tape: LeBron James vs. the Spurs
June 4, 2007 3:23 PM
A year ago, when Cleveland faced San Antonio, LeBron James averaged 32 points per game. So you know that, when the Spurs faced the Cavaliers this season, they were taking him seriously.
How did it go? Does it tell us anything about what might happen in the Finals?
Thanks to the magic of Synergy Sports, I just watched video of every single possession LeBron James had against San Antonio's defense this season.
Plenty of food for thought for all those of us who assume San Antonio will win. (I'm thinking long and hard about that at the moment, in fact.)
First of all, the Cavaliers won both games. It was 88-81 back in November, and 82-78 in January.
But that's only the beginning of the story. The main point is that when LeBron James got the ball against San Antonio's defense, the Cavaliers managed to get a good shot an alarming percentage of the time. There were a smattering of offensive fouls, certainly. And a couple of times James forced a pass that was picked off.
I watched 50 possessions, between the two games. Eight times (nine if you count a pretty amazing Tim Duncan block of Anderson Varejao) the Spurs forced the Cavaliers into a turnover, an offensive foul, or a truly difficult shot.
Trusting my observations, that means the Cavaliers had good looks 84% of the time. Seems like a high number against any team, but especially San Antonio.
Those 42 times San Antonio was not successful? The Cavaliers either:
Scored.
Got fouled.
Scored and got fouled.
Missed easy shots (which they do sometimes).
I have a feeling what happens with those easy shots will decide the 2006-2007 NBA champion.
James finished those two games a combined 21-43 from the field without ever really getting on a hot streak from long range. By my count he missed 15 very makeable shots (not counting "and one" opportunities when he missed shots after being fouled), including an alley-oop, a few layups, and several open jumpers. Give James those same looks every game, and he could have some nights when he makes 70% of his shots.
This is hardly the final analysis. In fact, how San Antonio defends Cleveland in the regular season may have very little to do with how they handle the Finals after a ton of time to prepare. And we'll all be learning MUCH more as all the preview insight is published. However, here are some things I noticed from watching that video:
Bruce Bowen guards LeBron James almost all the time, except for a couple of Manu Ginobili cameos. Against a lot of players, Bowen is omnipresent and annoying. Against James, Bowen is a barely noticeable gnat. James can use his mighty frame to put Bowen into any and every pick, and then he's often wide open. When isolated against James, Bowen can't do much to bother James' fallaway jump shot, which is sometimes a high percentage shot.
With the help of a pick, and sometimes without, James can get to the rim against the Spurs with shocking ease. Now, those of you who watched San Antonio play against Phoenix can tell you that "at the rim" is a nearly impossible place to score against the Spurs. The story is you're better off pulling up in the mid-range (which is the Achilles heel of LeBron James). I am here to tell you, sports fans, that those rules do not apply to LeBron James, who finishes at the rim against San Antonio with regularity -- at least in these two games. One reason is because often Tim Duncan is coming over to help far from the rim, and is not entrenched in the lane. But that only accounts for some possessions. On others? James is that rarest of players who just can score over and around Duncan. The genius of Duncan's defense is that he does not jump. He stays on the ground and saves his jumps for after the shot has been released. But James comes to the hoop so hard, he is so long, he is so strong, he is so fast, and he has a point of release so high, that he can score over or around a stationary Duncan -- forcing the big man into some non-routine habits.
You can see James posterizing Duncan. That play was not entirely typical of the James/Duncan relationship. But note how easily James left Bowen behind when he had a pick and a mind to get to the rim. That happened a lot.
The kryptonite of the Spurs is getting Tim Duncan in foul trouble. LeBron James could get Tim Duncan in foul trouble. I'm sure this series will be hyped in some fashion as LeBron James vs. Tim Duncan. Of course, they play totally different positions, and that would seem to be all hype. But, in fact, LeBron James vs. Tim Duncan may prove to be the key matchup for the various reasons outlined here. I should also mention that James does not look remotely scared of Duncan. You know how a lot players go away from Merlin? Not LeBron James.
James posts Bowen a fair amount. This is not the easiest way for James to score, but it's a very effective way to get Tim Duncan coming over to help -- and when he gets there, James likes to spin to the baseline and lead everyone on a race to the hoop. It's clear, as that race unfolds, who is younger. More than once, in the half-court, James had layups with Duncan entirely behind him.
The Spurs were not "going easy" on James in the footage that I saw. They tried a zone in which three players cheated way over to James. They briefly experimented with a high-energy trapping defense (James one-dribbled away from his man, and pulled up for a made jumper). They sent help early and often. And whenever James beat his man baseline -- where the passing angles are tougher -- as many as four Spurs met the young star.
Who is Merlin?
So like I was saying...Finley needs to have the playoff of his career...Parker needs to keep emerging as a Superstar...and Elson needs to pull his head out.
Duncan's tattoo, I guess.
how many times has to be said that THAT Spurs team was playing like compared to this PLAYOFF SPURS???
SPURS are rolling, beating powerful teams from the WEST.
Let's see how many open looks will be given by the SPURS. Come on, we SHUT DOWN Phoenix.
M
can anyone give us some stat info comparing pre-all-star game spurs to post-a.s.g. spurs?
he is tim's favorite extended personality....
that's tim duncan... he's just a shy boy inside.... but that's what makes him focused on things he wants to achieve...
WTF? During the month of November (when the Spurs first lost to Cleveland), they went 9-7. During that stretch, they played - AND LOST TO - Utah, also. In the month of January (when the Spurs lost to Cleveland the second time), they went 9-7 again. During that stretch, they played - AND LOST TO - Utah, AGAIN.
We all know what happened to Utah in the PO's.
Translation: Those two RS games don't mean .
Now, now, don't expect the media to actually do an analysis.
the new Spurs rookie?
what i hadn't realized until just now is that, despite chauncy billups' supposed bad play, he still averaged 14 ppg against cleveland in the playoffs. what's more, hughes only got 7 ppg. how big is his injury likely to be?
Any resemblance between the Spurs team you are referring to and today's team is strictly coincidental. Add the fact that these are the playoffs, and you, the Cavs Wilbon, Kornheiser, et al, should stop referring to the games in the fall. It's a completely new season.
I can see the Spurs losing a 7-game finals series, say, to the Pistons, Heat, and maybe even the Nets if they played above their heads. The cavs are a young, inexperienced team. For the first game, or possibly two, the same fate the Jazz suffered will strike them, too.
The axiom of experience is the best teacher really works, for, and against.
Wait and see.
Elson???? c´mon. What he plays doesn´t count. Because he doesn´t find his head!.
Unless they are out flat out lying on the medical reports Hughes tore his plantar fascia and is having his foot shot up with novocaine before the games just to be able to play.
Imagine playing NBA playoff basketball and your foot feels like it just got back from the dentist. It can't be good for his game.
Our defense SUCKED first half of the year, by our standards not even close to what it needed to be and what it has been the last couple of months.
And they got good looks on that sorry D 84% of the time and only average 85 points?
I like the way these numbers are adding up.
Our defense sucks when we play small ball...hopefully we won't. Hopefully Mike Brown wasn't watching the Dal SA series last year.
Last year??? LOL! I hope Mike Brown still think we have Rasho and Nazr and would HAVE to go small.
i think he means how much of an impact on the series is the injury likely to have
hey i'm overconfident with the best of them, but if it goes 7 games there is no such thing as a closeout. Let's just beat them by 6 and be done with the analysis. 7 games and it's anyones game at that point, deservedly so.
That was a good article, but the premise is flawed. Go back to those early season games, and you'll find lots of reasons why X team is killing the Spurs. Go to a game we lose, and you'll be able to find some Spurkillers-by definition! Go back to the games the Suns won, and you'll see they're going to kill us. Etc. Etc.
Luckily, the Spurs are not that same team right now!
they've beaten the spurs 3-1 from my understanding, since brown joined the cavs.
Where did this article come from?
espn's truehoop.
I guess we don't really need to have Playoffs, since everything is decided in the regular season, right?
Idiot.
Insightful analysis (if it's all true and accurate). It should be a very interesting matchup.
What do you guys and gals think of the Cavs transition defense? From RS games, it seemed Phoenix put the Cavs in trouble with their speed in transition.
Should the Spurs play less half-court offense and push the pace against the Cavs? A role reversal of sorts although I know the Spurs are versatile enough.
Last edited by LavaLamp; 06-04-2007 at 07:43 PM.
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