Cavs Have a 9% Chance of Winning the Finals

[Kori Ellis]

http://www.woai.com/content/sports/s...2-45f0c0c4012f

By Kris Rivenburgh, playoffbasketball.com


If you do decide to hit Las Vegas, you’re getting odds on your money (Cavs are 4-1).

I don’t like going with the same thing everyone else says, but Spurs in 5 or 6 are the only two sane choices. Well, yeah, they could sweep them also, but I do think the Cavs have one game in them.

So my prediction is Spurs in 5.

The crux of the Finals clash is this: the Spurs are playing at their optimal level and so are the Cavs. The Cavs best was good enough to beat Washington without Arenas and Butler, the .500 Nets, and the watered down Pistons. But in the West their best play might get them into the second round if they played the Denver Nuggets (the Spurs first round opponent.)

The Suns, the Spurs second round opponent, would have destroyed the Cavs. Phoenix nearly beat the Spurs with Amare Staudemire suspended for game 5.

San Antonio ran the Jazz off a cliff in the Western Conference Finals and Utah likely defeats Lebron and co. if the two square off.

There is a reason you keep hearing how weak the East is. It’s because the teams are very, very weak - especially this year. I honestly can’t remember an easier road to the NBA Finals than the one the Cavs just strolled down.

If you want to say I’m downplaying the Detroit Pistons’ power, that’s not a bad counter. It’s definitely debatable, but the Pistons have lost about 2.5 notches from their modern hayday a few years ago. They have changed in that there is no Ben Wallace rebounding and changing shots and the head coach is - at best - average among the league’s coaches. Flip Saunders looks more like he’s trying to save face on the sidelines rather than coach the games. But even with a higher reputation coach like Larry Brown, these Pistons might not advance against the Cavs and certainly are no match for the Spurs.

More than anything else, the 2007 Detroit Pistons played very uninspired basketball and weren’t worried about closing out opponents. That’s why the Bulls won two in a row after being down 3-0 and that’s why the Caveliers swept them after going down 2-0.

So back to the Spurs vs. Cavs, I see a plethora of reasons to give the Spurs a 91% of holding “King” James’ crown.

1. Spurs are very rested. Spurs had been battered around without much rest for the first three rounds of the playoffs. Without much rest, the elder Spurs could have stumbled early on in the series, but now the Spurs are recharged.

2. Cleveland is happy to be here. And with good reason, nobody thought the Cavs would make it this far. You could see the relief and exuberation when the final bell tolled on the Pistons. Then, in the post game, Lebron was saying how everybody had counted them out and how he’d delivered on his promise to the city - shouldn’t those comments be reserved for winning the championship? Just happy to be here (or there) is a cliche that’s tossed around all too often, but in the Cavs sense, you can see its true.

3. The Spurs have experience galore while the Cavs have nothing. Yeah, Damon Jones has a ring, but I’m talking about the guys that you’ll see out there 40+ minutes. The Spurs have proved time and again they can pullout the tough games in the playoffs. The Cavs and, more accurately, Lebron James, did pull out some big wins against Detroit but the Spurs ability to grind out the big game is a key component in their championship pedigree.

4. Lebron James is incredible (unless he’s trying to defer to his teammates) but his teammates are horrible. It’s a good thing Daniel Gibson has emerged, but really take a look at the cast of players Lebron suits up with. Despite an easy path to the Finals, I am still impressed this team got the job done with how little talent Lebron James has around him.

Meanwhile, the Spurs are certainly not the league’s most talented, but their systematic approach, precision, and execution is uncanny. San Antonio’s role players - Fabricio Oberto, Bruce Bowen, Robert Horry, and Michael Finley know their role and they perform magnificently within it. Tim Duncan and Tony Parker are the star players and sacrifice their numbers and spot light to make their teammates better, yet either can take over the game at any time. Manu Ginobili plays the wild card, x-factor roll so well, he can transform into a star on any given game. However, this post season Ginobili has been largely inconsistant in comparison to past years.

5. Cleveland is not a good shooting team. The Spurs will cut down Cleveland’s points in the paint big time and will force Lebron James, Larry Hughes, Sasha Pavlovic, Eric Snow, and Damon Jones to shoot from the outside. With Daniel Gibson’s recent outburst, he is the only guard who the Spurs strongly contest on the perimeter.

6. Cleveland has very little shot blocking ability out of their post players. Shot blockers pose the biggest threat to the Spurs offensive scheme and often bog down the Spurs. With a clear lane outside of Zydrunas Ilgauskas standing on his tippy toes, the Spurs should have plenty of easy opportunities.

7. This is a seven game series. If this was one game, winner take all, then the Spurs would have a lot more to fear. Lebron James is so talented and so explosive that he can win any one game by himself as evidenced by his 48 point performance in Detroit. With three losses allotted, there is ample time to realign the defensive focus or shift strategy should the 22 year old phenom take over.

8. The Spurs have struggled with the Cavs ever since Lebron James has arrived. This season they were actually 0-2 against the Cavs and Lebron James was unguardable in one game, scoring 35 points to go along with 10 rebounds. This is cause for a bump of concern on Spurs’ fans richter scales, but the wierd thing is, the Spurs notoriously have had problems with Eastern Conference teams such as the Bucks, Knicks,Pistons, Bulls and Raptors. It’s more of a combination of the time of year and unfamiliarity than inability to consistently beat these teams. Keep in mind, the Spurs do a lot of Robert Horry sleep walking during the regular season - in 2007 more than ever, so it is ok to throw out the regular season history when considering this series.

So after all that, I still won’t shut the door all the way on the Cavs. I’m giving them 11-1 to come through.

No, it isn’t a lot, but I think Lebron James by himself commands the possibility of a le with only four wins to go. He’s got a power forward body with the quickness of a point guard and the overall talent to match. If he can open up the Spurs’ vaunted defense with hot perimeter shooting, even the mighty Spurs become susceptible to a huge upset.

There’s no doubt in my mind that Lebron will have championships rolling in if GM Danny Ferry ever recruits a legitimate talent, but this year I’m only giving Lebron a 9% chance.

Read more from By Kris Rivenburgh on his basketball blog, playoffbasketball.com.

[PistonskillSpurs]

Hogwash. The east has won two of the last three les, and the only one the west got it took them seven games and homecourt advantage, and the opportunity to play a team that had been through a seven game series aginst Shaq, Alonzo and Wade whi the Spurs had whipped the pathetic Wolves. And in that Pistons/Spurs series, the Pistons were up on the spurs in game three by 40 POINTS at one time during that game. Had Sheed not left Horry they would have beaten you 4 straight games, Just like the Heat beat the Mavs 4 straight last year, you know, the Mavs that your Spurs struggled against and lost to in seven, an Eastern team whipped them 4 straight games.

The Suns, when the Pistons went out there this year, they were up by 30 at one point, and their coach said he was throwing up the white flag. Pistons eneded up winning by 19. At Dallas, this year, the Pistons were up in the fourth by 19 points, a total blow out. The east plays a TOTALLY different brand of defense than the west, and it's better suited for the playoffs. The Cavs desigbed their defense to be like the Pistons and to beat the Pistons. All they have to do is play the Spurs like they did the Pistons, right up in the chest with fast traps and great rotation, and the Spurs will be shocked at the intensity of it. The Jazz can't even come close to playing defense as good as the Cavs. The cavs were designed to beat the pistons, and that's what they accomplished. I think you'll find that they will be more difficult than you ever imagined. Just ask the Mavs if the eastern style of defense works better than what the Spurs do. They got that butt pounded four times in a row by another team that was designed to beat the Pistons. If you think the Cavs are going to be as easy as Utah, then get ready for the shock of your life.

[Louie Vega]

I thought Damon "The monster that Shaq created" Jones left the year before they won the ring?

[LilMissSPURfect]

west is weak
east is best

wasn't it the spurs that ended the pistons red hot 100game win streak this season( 17 or so) or something at THEIR place.....when the spurs were still struggling with their defense....

Spurs can and will match any type basketball played


GO SPURS!

[PistonskillSpurs]

Yep, and last year the Pistons swepth the Spurs, and both games were stompings. We came donw there this year and you beat us by one I think, and we were on a back to back after playing at Huoston, where we also lost by one I think.

west is weak
east is best

wasn't it the spurs that ended the pistons red hot 100game win streak this season( 17 or so) or something at THEIR place.....when the spurs were still struggling with their defense....

Spurs can and will match any type basketball played


GO SPURS!

[MaNuMaNiAc]

Hogwash. The east has won two of the last three les, and the only one the west got it took them seven games and homecourt advantage, and the opportunity to play a team that had been through a seven game series aginst Shaq, Alonzo and Wade whi the Spurs had whipped the pathetic Wolves. And in that Pistons/Spurs series, the Pistons were up on the spurs in game three by 40 POINTS at one time during that game. Had Sheed not left Horry they would have beaten you 4 straight games, Just like the Heat beat the Mavs 4 straight last year, you know, the Mavs that your Spurs struggled against and lost to in seven, an Eastern team whipped them 4 straight games.

The Suns, when the Pistons went out there this year, they were up by 30 at one point, and their coach said he was throwing up the white flag. Pistons eneded up winning by 19. At Dallas, this year, the Pistons were up in the fourth by 19 points, a total blow out. The east plays a TOTALLY different brand of defense than the west, and it's better suited for the playoffs. The Cavs desigbed their defense to be like the Pistons and to beat the Pistons. All they have to do is play the Spurs like they did the Pistons, right up in the chest with fast traps and great rotation, and the Spurs will be shocked at the intensity of it. The Jazz can't even come close to playing defense as good as the Cavs. The cavs were designed to beat the pistons, and that's what they accomplished. I think you'll find that they will be more difficult than you ever imagined. Just ask the Mavs if the eastern style of defense works better than what the Spurs do. They got that butt pounded four times in a row by another team that was designed to beat the Pistons. If you think the Cavs are going to be as easy as Utah, then get ready for the shock of your life.

Just admit your team choked the out ECF! Pistons had it in them to beat the Cavs in 4 after going up 2-0 and choked. The Cavs are getting destroyed tomorrow, you just sit back and watch how real basketball is played.

[Johnny RIngo]

Spurs in 5. King James is going down in flames.

[PistonskillSpurs]

Almost word for word what Mavs fans were saying last year, and even surprised the Heat with a couple home wins, until that eastern conference defense began to take it's toll, and then, well, four straight for the Heat and eastern conference defense. You Spurs fans are dreaming if you think you have played anyone in the west even close to the defensive bodies you are in for now. The cavs play eastern conference defense, and it is designed to get harder and harder as a series goes on. The big bodies leaning, trapping, clogging up the paint, chest bumping, in your face defense. It is a brutal style and iy wears on you over a few games, and by game three and four the Spurs are going to be feeling the weight of it. There's a reason the east has won the last two of three les, and you are getting ready to feel that physical pounding. It ain't "surprise ya one time" western offense and defense. This is Piston's style defense designed for series, to be applied over several games, and to wear down the opponent physically. It's how the Pistons won it all, it's how Miami won it last year, and the cavs have adopted it as well to beat the Pistons. Let's just see how things are going by game four. Then come and tell me how it's no better than what the Jazz do.

Just admit your team choked the out ECF! Pistons had it in them to beat the Cavs in 4 after going up 2-0 and choked. The Cavs are getting destroyed tomorrow, you just sit back and watch how real basketball is played.

[SAGambler]

The east has won two of the last three les,

I think someone pointed out earlier today, they also had won 2 of the last 8.

[td4mvp3]

I think someone pointed out earlier today, they also had won 2 of the last 8.

against a hobbled lakers squad and a mavs group with no lowpost threat.

[Johnny RIngo]

against a hobbled lakers squad and a mavs group with no balls.

Fixed it for ya

[JonVito]

I think someone pointed out earlier today, they also had won 2 of the last 8.

that can happen when you put Kobe and Shaq on the same team


they are good, but any one player on the Spurs and Duncan dont = Kobe and Shaq...

[Marcus Bryant]

Hogwash. The east has won two of the last three les, and the only one the west got it took them seven games and homecourt advantage, and the opportunity to play a team that had been through a seven game series aginst Shaq, Alonzo and Wade whi the Spurs had whipped the pathetic Wolves. And in that Pistons/Spurs series, the Pistons were up on the spurs in game three by 40 POINTS at one time during that game. Had Sheed not left Horry they would have beaten you 4 straight games, Just like the Heat beat the Mavs 4 straight last year, you know, the Mavs that your Spurs struggled against and lost to in seven, an Eastern team whipped them 4 straight games.

The Suns, when the Pistons went out there this year, they were up by 30 at one point, and their coach said he was throwing up the white flag. Pistons eneded up winning by 19. At Dallas, this year, the Pistons were up in the fourth by 19 points, a total blow out. The east plays a TOTALLY different brand of defense than the west, and it's better suited for the playoffs. The Cavs desigbed their defense to be like the Pistons and to beat the Pistons. All they have to do is play the Spurs like they did the Pistons, right up in the chest with fast traps and great rotation, and the Spurs will be shocked at the intensity of it. The Jazz can't even come close to playing defense as good as the Cavs. The cavs were designed to beat the pistons, and that's what they accomplished. I think you'll find that they will be more difficult than you ever imagined. Just ask the Mavs if the eastern style of defense works better than what the Spurs do. They got that butt pounded four times in a row by another team that was designed to beat the Pistons. If you think the Cavs are going to be as easy as Utah, then get ready for the shock of your life.

Eh, the Spurs have played 'Eastern Conference' ball for the last ing decade. Turn that vowel, Vanna.

[ClingingMars]

that can happen when you put Kobe and Shaq on the same team


they are good, but any one player on the Spurs and Duncan dont = Kobe and Shaq...

parker + ginobili + duncan = kobe and shaq

-Mars

[td4mvp3]

Fixed it for ya

[Marcus Bryant]

EC record against the WC in the last 8 Finals: 2-6

And that was with Shaq ending his career in Miami.

[NorCal510]

Cavs have a 50% chance of winning the finals

2 outcomes, 1 chosen... thats 1 in 2... which is 50%


aint rocket science here guys

[td4mvp3]

Hogwash. The east has won two of the last three les, and the only one the west got it took them seven games and homecourt advantage, and the opportunity to play a team that had been through a seven game series aginst Shaq, Alonzo and Wade whi the Spurs had whipped the pathetic Wolves. And in that Pistons/Spurs series, the Pistons were up on the spurs in game three by 40 POINTS at one time during that game. Had Sheed not left Horry they would have beaten you 4 straight games, Just like the Heat beat the Mavs 4 straight last year, you know, the Mavs that your Spurs struggled against and lost to in seven, an Eastern team whipped them 4 straight games.

The Suns, when the Pistons went out there this year, they were up by 30 at one point, and their coach said he was throwing up the white flag. Pistons eneded up winning by 19. At Dallas, this year, the Pistons were up in the fourth by 19 points, a total blow out. The east plays a TOTALLY different brand of defense than the west, and it's better suited for the playoffs. The Cavs desigbed their defense to be like the Pistons and to beat the Pistons. All they have to do is play the Spurs like they did the Pistons, right up in the chest with fast traps and great rotation, and the Spurs will be shocked at the intensity of it. The Jazz can't even come close to playing defense as good as the Cavs. The cavs were designed to beat the pistons, and that's what they accomplished. I think you'll find that they will be more difficult than you ever imagined. Just ask the Mavs if the eastern style of defense works better than what the Spurs do. They got that butt pounded four times in a row by another team that was designed to beat the Pistons. If you think the Cavs are going to be as easy as Utah, then get ready for the shock of your life.

the top ten defensive teams based on opp points allowed split evenly east-west. top 5 had 3 texas teams. spurs were tops.

top ten opp fg % had four west teams, houston top. top 10 opp 3pt % had six west teams, s.a. second to cleveland as 1 and 2.

to say the west doesn't feature good defenses doesn't seem to be the case.

[td4mvp3]

Cavs have a 50% chance of winning the finals

2 outcomes, 1 chosen... thats 1 in 2... which is 50%


aint rocket science here guys

wow, that took some guts with that avatar pic.

[Marcus Bryant]

the top ten defensive teams based on opp points allowed split evenly east-west. top 5 had 3 texas teams. spurs were tops.

top ten opp fg % had four west teams, houston top. top 10 opp 3pt % had six west teams, s.a. second to cleveland as 1 and 2.

to say the west doesn't feature good defenses doesn't seem to be the case.

Spurs were top 4 in FG% and opponents' FG%. Cavs were ing 24th in FG%.

[td4mvp3]

Spurs were top 4 in FG% and opponents' FG%. Cavs were ing 24th in FG%.

yeah, but we were talking about defense.

[Marcus Bryant]

yeah, but we were talking about defense.

Sure, so the Spurs were in a conference with 6 of the top defenses in the league and were 2nd in FG%. We'll see just how good that Cavs' D really is come tomorrow night.

[Mr. Body]

Cavs have a 50% chance of winning the finals

2 outcomes, 1 chosen... thats 1 in 2... which is 50%


aint rocket science here guys

If one's already chosen, wouldn't that be 100%?

[FromWayDowntown]

Spurs didn't play the "pathetic Wolves" in the 2005 WCF; they nearly swept out the Suns, who had the best record in basketball that season.

I understand the argument that the Cavs are probably the best defensive team that the Spurs have faced this post-season. We'll see if that makes a big difference or not. I think the Spurs are probably as good defensively as the Cavs -- particularly because the Spurs have a major league shot blocker waiting at the rim for those who are able to get there. The question is which team's offense is going to be best able to exploit the weaknesses of the opponent's defense. I think the Spurs present a more varied attack and create dilemmas for teams with the way that their offense is structured -- I think those dilemmas and versatility make it hard for teams to just play the Spurs one way on defense. I guess we'll see over the next couple of weeks whether the Cavs can do vary their looks and affect the Spurs' offense more than than the Spurs might be able to limit the Cavs' offense.

[ClingingMars]

Cavs have a 50% chance of winning the finals

2 outcomes, 1 chosen... thats 1 in 2... which is 50%


aint rocket science here guys

It ain't that simple when you take into the account the players around LeBron, the Spurs experience etc. If every single bet was 50:50 they're be no point in betting.

-Mars