Weeeeelllllllllllll, generally I'd agree. But in 2005, we promptly dropped the next 2, eeked out the 5th game on a prayer, lost game 6 and then pulled it out in 7. Games 5 and 7 could have gone the other way.
Also, in 2004, we went up 2 on the Lakers and then that shot in game 5 and we didn't recover.
But this series? I think we've got it. I think Cleveland takes a close game 5 and the Spurs pull it out in game 4 and step on their throat in game 5 for the championship.

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