Numbers indicate unlikely outcomes in games Donaghy officiated
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
By Wayne Drehs
ESPN.com
When noted sports gambling expert R.J. Bell began crunching numbers from the last four years of NBA referee Tim Donaghy's career Monday, what he discovered sent him on a public relations ride he never thought possible.
"It's been a crazy day," said Bell, the president of sports betting information site pregame.com. "But this is some groundbreaking stuff."
The biggest eye opener, Bell said, came when he compared the number of points scored in the games Donaghy officiated versus the number of points the Las Vegas sports books had expected.
In the two seasons in which the FBI is investigating Donaghy for allegedly fixing games for gambling purposes, Bell found that, in games when Donaghy was part of the officiating crew, NBA teams scored more points than Las Vegas expected (hitting the over) 57 percent of the time. With a league average of 49 to 51 percent, the odds of such an occurrence are 19 to 1.
When Bell analyzed the numbers from the two seasons before the two in question, he discovered that, in games Donaghy officiated, NBA teams scored more points than Vegas expected just 44 percent of the time.
Although the 13 percent difference might not seem that jarring to the casual observer, it's jaw-dropping in the world of sports gambling. Bell said the odds of a 44 percent probability happening 57 percent of the time are about 1 in 1,000.
"There's a 99.9 percent chance that these results would not have happened without an outside factor," Bell said. "Something abnormal was going on here."
ESPN.com's own research into Donaghy's last two seasons supports Bell's claims. In the 66 games Donaghy refereed in the 2005-06 season, the two teams in his games combined to score an average of 196.8 points. The average over/under, according to BoDog.com, was 186.6, a difference of almost 10 points.
In 2006-07, Donaghy refereed 73 games. In those contests, the two teams combined to score 201.37 points and the average over/under was 187.9 points, a difference of more than 13 points per game.
"Vegas is too good for that to happen," Bell said. "The standard range should be somewhere around five or six, maybe. Not 10 or 13."
The surprising trends aren't limited to total bets, when a gambler wagers on the total number of points scored in a game. Side bets, when a gambler picks one side or the other to win the contest, also raised some concern.
At the start of the 2007 calendar year, Bell said, there were 10 straight games in which Donaghy was part of the officiating crew and the point spread moved a point and a half or more before tip-off, indicating big money had been wagered on the game. In those 10 contests, according to Bell, the big money won all 10 times.
At the start of the 2007 calendar year, Bell said, there were 10 straight games in which Donaghy was part of the officiating crew and the point spread moved a point and a half or more before tip-off, indicating big money had been wagered on the game. In those 10 contests, according to Bell, the big money won all 10 times.
"They say follow the money, right?" Bell said. "Well, when the money is right 10 straight times, something is going on. To me, that's the gavel clicking down."
Just as interesting are the numbers from April 15 to the postseason. During that stretch, there were eight games in which Donaghy was part of the officiating crew and the line moved more than a point and a half before the tip, Bell said. And in those games, including over/under bets and win/loss wagers, the big money was just 2-7.
"It means one of two things," Bell said. "Perhaps in the playoffs, they felt too much scrutiny and they weren't trying to do anything and the results are just random. Or perhaps there was some sort of turnabout with the individual in question and he went the other way."
Yet despite such surprising numbers, in an environment in which every gambler is looking for every advantage he can find, Bell said it's highly unlikely anyone outside the individuals who had knowledge of Donaghy's alleged involvement would have been able to identify his tendencies.
"There's a strong indication that this was not going around on the buzz, as they like to say. Without the benefit of hindsight, two years wouldn't have been enough for these tendencies to reveal themselves," he said. "In three or four years, maybe. But not two."
According to FoxSports.com, over the last two seasons, Donaghy led the NBA in technical fouls, free-throw attempts per game and foul outs per game.
Bell said officials are studied to find possible gambling advantages in the ways they call a game. But the majority of that work, he said, is done in baseball; umpires are given ample attention because of their strike zone size. On any given night, the umpire can affect the over/under. In the NBA, Bell said the only real attention paid to the referees is whether that official is a "homer," in other words whether he has a tendency to be influenced by a home crowd in a big game.
"There's research that if it's a nationally televised game or a rivalry game with a large, boisterous crowd, some officials will get freaked out," Bell said. "A sophisticated gambler knows that and will consider that when placing his bets."
Wayne Drehs is a senior writer for ESPN.com. He can be reached at [email protected].
the bolded seems like a copout to say "we can't say he was fooling with anything but don't want to rule that out, either."
Hmmm, looks like Game 4 of the LAL-PHX series was rigged as well. PHX doubled the line, had a 31-17 FT advantage, yet were the visiting team. Considering the series was at 2-1 at that point, a Laker win would have tied the series.
Funny how Suns Fan is not screaming about that game like they are about Game 3 of the SAS-PHX series.
of course, i just realize that the guy says there were eight games during the post season but gives the record for nine games.
And this is the key. When you start looking at all the games Donaghy did as a whole package, the Suns fans who are whining are going to look like complete asses.
Oops, redundant.
yeah you wont see any suns fans in this thread
Yeah suddenly they have gotten real scarce all over the board. Coincidence? Not.
11/18 Lost to UTH on the road by 3, line was UTH by 4.5, +33 on O/U
12/11 Beat ORL on the road by 14, line was ORL by 1.5, -18 on O/U
1/5 Beat MIA at home by 28, line was PHX by 19, -18 on O/U
1/17 Beat HOU on the road by 9, line was PHX by 9, -10 on O/U
4/29 Beat LAL on the road by 13, line was PHX by 6.5, +5 on O/U
5/12 Lost to SAS on the road by 7, line was SAS by 4.0, +7 on O/U
I am a gambler by no means, and I make no claim to understand the spreads/lines or whatever, but I see 5 out of 6 games where someone could have bet the line in favor of the Suns and won. Is that correct? And are the huge O/U margins in at least 4 of these games any indicator that big money was being placed on the O/U?
IMO, it would seem that the Suns received more benefit from his officiating than they were hurt by it, but feel free to correct that assumption. If any team wants to complain about him, it should be Miami, who were 1-6 in games he officiated this last year.
how big of an influence do you think teams will have now in pointing to a stat like that and insisting so-and-so ref not officiate their game (crawford for the spurs, for instance)?
I think it mistakenly lends credibility to their perceptions that certain refs officiate certain teams certain ways. I will not go as far as to say that this subjectivity doesn't happen, but every team believes that at least one if not more refs treat them poorly. This will only have the Cubans, Karls, Jacksons and D'Antonis of the league sending tape to the Commish about every suspected ill will from an officiating crew. The worst part about this particular take on the whole incident is that Mark Cuban is being propped as a modern day Jonah to the NBA Ninevah (for you non-Biblical people, think "Repent! Repent! Repent!"). The last thing that man needs is credibility for his overall iness.
there's an analogy i didn't see coming. way to step out of the biblical box
It is likely that a ref on the take would be moving to help the team with less money put on them to win. The city of phoenix has a lot of gamblers who will make that short trip to Vegas same with LA. I guarantee you that because of San Antonio's fan base and distance from Vegas that the vast majority of betting was on Phoenix and a bookie with the ability to manipulate the outcome would have had plenty of opportunity to make a killing by making San Antonio the favorite and giving points to a team most thought would win outright.
The same can be said between the LA/Phoenix series. The arrogance of the LA fans probably pushed the money heavily into the Lakers favor, which would be huge for the bookie to make Phoenix win.
What was the line on Phx-SA Gm 3?
Nice points on the Phx at LA stats.
both teams played hard
I have only one thing to say to Suns fans. Bow down and kiss the ring of your basketball god.
I wouldn't be surprised if it turns out that all he did was call someone from the locker room saying "Kobe says his ankle hurts" or "Duncan was limping" or "Carmelo looks hungover".
11/18 Lost to UTH on the road by 3, line was UTH by 4.5, +33 on O/U
Bet PHX = win
12/11 Beat ORL on the road by 14, line was ORL by 1.5, -18 on O/U
Bet PHX = win
1/5 Beat MIA at home by 28, line was PHX by 19, -18 on O/U
Bet PHX = win
1/17 Beat HOU on the road by 9, line was PHX by 9, -10 on O/U
Bet PHX = push
4/29 Beat LAL on the road by 13, line was PHX by 6.5, +5 on O/U
Bet PHX = win
5/12 Lost to SAS on the road by 7, line was SAS by 4.0, +7 on O/U
Bet PHX = loss
Conclusion: It is completely and totally clear that Donaghy helped the Suns win three regular season games, without which they would have won only 58 games. The Spurs would then have undoubtedly won 59 instead of packing it in late in the year, and thus Donaghy cost the Spurs home court advantage in the WCSF. PHX's regular season record is thus permanantly and irrevocably tainted. [/Sun Fan Logic]
There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)
Posting Permissions
Reply With Quote
