Greg Oden
To spin off the "Is Duncan a Power Foward or a Center" thread, I found this. I don't usually post blogs but I thought this was too interesting a debate to bury in a thread that's pretty much done. (If I made a mistake and it belongs in that thread I apologize.)
Your thoughts?
http://www.411mania.com/sports/nba/6...al-Center?.htm
Death of the Traditional Center?
Posted by Todd Spehr
As the NBA goes smaller and faster, the traditional center is becoming a thing of the past. With the steady decline of Shaquille O'Neal coupled with the recent rule changes, there is a new type of big man in the league. So where did all dominant big men go?
Several weeks ago I was wracking my brain and pouring over endless statistics putting together my top ten fantasy center list, and looking at the final draft it dawned on me that the list was made up of makeshift centers, a heap of players playing out of position. To be a tad more specific, eight of the ten players could pass easily for power forwards instead of centers. The only two true centers? Shaquille ‘The Last Great Center' O'Neal and Yao Ming. The traditional slow-it-down, pound-it-low, grind-it-out center of basically the last forty-five years of hoops is like one of those animals fighting off an inevitable extinction. Smaller players – well, if you call 6'9'' to 6'11'' smaller – are being asked to play bigger spots, and in many ways, are playing bigger. The trend can be traced to roughly two things: 1) The NBA, in the last five years, has fine-tuned the rules (introducing the zone, hands-off D, etc) to cater to a faster brand of ball; why wait for your center to lumber up the floor when you can get a 3-on-2 break? And 2) Every team insists on becoming Phoenix 2.0 (Washington and Golden State are two standout examples) and are running and gunning their way to respectability. The game has quickened. The game is faster. The traditional center is dying.
There once was a time in the league – 1976 to 2002 if you want to be ultra-technical – where every non-Jordan le team had a dominant center. Now, there are multiple sidebars to that, one telling you just how good Michael Jordan was to lead Bill ‘Elbows' Cartwright and Luc Longley to separate three-peats; the other telling you that yes, while Detroit's Bill Laimbeer was never a dominant force, he did annoy the absolute crap out of more opponents than any player in league history and was your classic foxhole guy: you hate him, but you'd want him on your team. As for the rest, well, to look at every championship team in that span, there's not a stiff among them. The three-peat Lakers had Shaq, the lockout Spurs had Robinson, the Rockets with Olajuwon, Abdul-Jabbar in LA, Parish in Boston, Malone in Philly, Sikma in Seattle, Unseld in Washington, Walton in Portland and Cowens in Boston. Golden State rode Rick Barry in '75 (one of the most underrated great seasons in NBA history, but that's another column) to be the last non-center team to claim a le in more than thirty-something years. Normally, you could point to any decade in league history and reel off five great centers; can you do that in the post-Mike era?
To make matters worse, in the last five NBA seasons, you could make a case that not one le team has possessed a dominant center.
In '03, David Robinson was on his very last legs, a very different player from even the '99 version of Robinson. He played just 64 games and averaged 8.5 points, by far a career low (Note: his performance in the clincher vs. New Jersey was a strict once-off). In '04, the Pistons relied on perhaps one of the most balanced teams in league history - one of those no-individual-is-greater-than-the-whole teams - who were anchored by Ben Wallace, a modern-day watered down version of Bill Russell (correction: an impoverished man's Bill Russell) without the psychological warfare nor the total opposition intimidation, but still, while Wallace was destructive on defense he didn't have a clue anywhere else. In '05, the Spurs had Rasho Nesterovic and Nazr Mohammed and still managed to overcome their deficiencies to win. In '06 the Heat did have O'Neal – who, by the way, was All-NBA First team in name only, he basically made that based on lack of compe ion - but he wasn't the dominant Shaq, he wasn't Laker Shaq, nor was he even the MVP runner-up of a season before. For the first time in his career he was content to defer to another player (Dwyane Wade) and anyone who saw O'Neal in the Finals against Dallas knows that he wasn't a dominant force anymore. Yes, when healthy, he still warrants constant double-teams, but when was he last healthy and/or in shape? And just imagine: Dallas really should've put Miami away in the Finals, and they had DeSagana Diop and Erick Dampier! Last season, the Spurs had Fabricio Oberto and Francisco Elson at center, although they also employed a Duncan-and-four-smalls offensive alignment for stretches simply because just about every team in the league now prefers to speed things up.
So while recent history doesn't associate dominant centers with championships, either do the statistical leaders. Since '96, when Olajuwon finished second to MJ in scoring, Amare Stoudemire is the only center not named Diesel who has landed in the top five in any of the eleven seasons since, finishing fifth in ‘05. (Prior to that, the last time a center missed the top five? 1989. And today's era is not unlike that of the mid-to-late ‘80s in regards to statistics, when the game was strictly dominated by guards and small forwards.) There were eleven starting centers that averaged less than ten points per game last season, and the average PPG of the entire starting center list was just 12.2. Even the rebounding le has been claimed by a power forward (Kevin Garnett) in each of the last four years. And other than O'Neal – seeing a trend here? – name another center who will physically overpower you? You won't. Stoudemire will, yes, dunk everything, but his timid/lackadaisical nature on the defensive end doesn't put fear in anyone. Yao is predominantly a jump-shooting center (and a fine one at that) so he won't stay in the post all night. Gasol is a face-the-basket type who uses the baseline as well as anybody, not to mention his middle name just has to be finesse. Perhaps the only guy who shows flashes of a young O'Neal is Dwight Howard who, at 21 years of age, has future (if not now) beast written all over him.
And the characteristics of these "new" centers are a far cry from the usual back-to-the-basket stuff. Posting up has been replaced by the high pick-n-roll; the hook is strictly a fighting term; any skills on the block have been traded in for a perimeter game. And the rules don't help. Ever since the zone came in several years back basically everyone but Shaq and Yao – the only guys now who have a post game and actually use it – became some form of a perimeter player. Because you can double a guy without the ball, stick a man on his hip and on his back, posting up currently resides in our memories of Olajuwon and Abdul-Jabbar, by far two of the finest post players ever, along with Kevin McHale. And yes, Tim Duncan still spends a lot of time down low, but remember he's a power forward. The durability of these guys is just atrocious as well, which makes no sense because they are actually banging less. Four of my top five fantasy centers (Stoudemire, Yao, Gasol and O'Neal) all have sub-60 games played seasons in the last couple of years. And with the success of Dallas, Phoenix and Golden State in recent times, this trend is sure to continue as teams aim to get smaller and faster (which is debatable in the first place, considering no "small-ball" team has won a le) in order to compete.
In the meantime, the center position is evolving into the new power forward spot; 40 is the new 30.
Last edited by duncan228; 10-26-2007 at 12:03 AM.
good find man... it is a really intelligent analysis...
Thanks. I thought it had its merits. Worth posting to see what people thought.
FromWayDowntown are you out there?
Solid D?
timvp?
All the rest of the incredible basketball minds we are so fortunate to have on the board?
I'm really interested to hear what people think of this one.
It is my personal belief that as the height requirements for center increased, the talent pool both shrank and became diluted. (This may sound contradictory, but bear with me.)
1. There are only so many men 19-50 over 7' tall in the world at any given time. This is obviously a very small number.
2. For some reason known only to themselves, NBA GMs and college recruiters will take a guy who is 7'2" and can barely play over a 6'9" guy who can. (I am exaggerating to make a point, but I don't think that's too far off.)
3. Many men over 7' tall do not even begin playing basketball until it becomes obvious they are going to be behemoths, or much later than many smaller players who make the NBA. How many times have you heard this about "project" big men? In contrast, I have never heard anyone say, "We recruited X heavily with the idea of working him into our system after he took his growth spurt and hit 6'5"..."
4. Meanwhile, the guys who could play and were "only" over 6'7" or so became power forwards, instead of centers.
5. In addition to the rule changes mentioned in the blog post, the 3 point shot made it less attractive to always pound the ball into the low block. Recall that the ABA was always short of talented big men, who tended to go to the NBA. No doubt, this played a role in the evolution of subsequent offensive schemes/strategies.
6. The net result has been that expectations for the center position have been lowered, and performance has declined.
7. Additionally, it is probably incorrect to think of the center situation from the late 1980s to late 1990s as "normative." In other words, having that many good centers around 7' tall in the NBA at once was the anomaly, not the situation today. I have no idea how many men between 19-50 and 7' tall or over are living in the world today. Obviously, it is a small number that fluctuates from year to year. It is possible that there just aren't 30 or more truly "big" big men, who can ball, in the world today.
Interesting take Reggie.
Thanks. I still don't feel like I have adequately explained the death of the low post game, though. That really confuses me, but all of the three point shooting is probably part of the equation. (By this I mean that nothing would prevent a 6'9" PF from developing a low post game if he wanted to do so.)
Boy, you must have a lot of time on your hands.![]()
I don't usually post blogs.
You found 4 in over 2300 posts, I don't know how many threads I've started.
If I find one I think is good for conversation I post it.
And yes, I preface it by saying I don't usually post blogs.
I've noticed that not too many people post blogs here, I figured it was the right thing to do to give people a heads up that it wasn't a "professional" writer.
haha, nah i'm just razzin ya for brown nosing FWDT, SolidD, and timvp
One of Arthur Miller's least known plays.
Call it what you want, I mentioned a few by name and called out the rest of the high basketball IQ heads on this board.
I think this blog had some merit. At the least, it's an interesting take after the Duncan PF or Center conversation. I want to hear other opinions.
Yours too.
Along with The Cruciate Ligament, a tale of lies and betrayal set in a New England emergency room.
He touched on a similar theme in All My Suns, as well.
You have too the big stiff factor.
When you have few great traditional centers, teams need to have a player to defend them. You have very few talented true centers because there is few 7" who plays BB so most teams end up with a big stiff. It's not a coincidence that players like Rasho or Foyle get monster contracts in the Shaq area.
When great centers are gone, big stiffs are gone too because some teams realized that you don't need to have a big stiff and put a more talented player. Remaining big stiffs are over matched by quicker players and are less interesting.
3 years ago, there were more true centers but 90% of them were just big stiffs. the decline of Shaq has had as consequence the decline of the Shaq stoppers who were mainly big but non talented players.
not playing until 2008, and even then who knows if he will ever be any good after that major surgery
What is a Traditional Center anyway other than the guy that's bigger than all the other guys?
There are more tall, athletic players than ever before in the NBA. In today's NBA, there is one thing in common to the NBA of 30-40 years ago: Tall players have an advantage in the paint offensively and defensively due to their height and length.
Classic big men of the 1960s such as Russell, Chamberlain, Embrey, Thurmond, Lanier, and Reed could play above the rim but they were fewer and farther between. There was typically not more than one 6'10" player on each team playing on the floor at the same time. There were a few exceptions like when the Warriors went big with Chamberlain and Thurmond.
Kevin Garnett is roughly Nate Thurmond, sizewise. KG is a little taller. Wilt Chamberlain at 7'1" 275 dominated everyone physically, including Russell, and he was like the adult at the playground against all the kids on the 8 foot rims. In the 1960s, the average height of a male US Citizen was 5'8" and there were far fewer 7 footers than there are today. 6'10"+ players clearly had a "View From Above" in the NBA so they jumped center and ruled the paint. I saw a stat a couple of years ago, maybe 2004, that showed Matt Harpring was the average NBA player in size at 6'7.5" and 230 lbs., or thereabouts.
The lines are less clear today on who is a classic center. Many more players can play above the rim. Basketball offenses are not designed around one Center in the majority of cases anyways. Many of the offenses, past and present, are based on the premise of 2 post players and 3 perimeter players, or more specifically 2 post players, 2 wing players and a lead guard. Even in a 4-out, 1-in offense, the other post player who sets up on the perimeter can be used to high screen for perimeter shooters or downscreen for the Big on the low post and switch places, thus becoming the new low post Big. The age-old Flex offense that has been talked about in this Forum, because it is what Magnano ran with the Argentina NT, isn't based on one true Center or post player.
Pat Riley compares Tim Duncan to Kareem and classifies them both as "finesse post players". In every day coach-speak, he doesn't call them finesse Centers, he just calls them what they are in basketball terms. In my view, there will always be dominant players but with so many players able to play above the rim now, the exception has almost become the "below the rim" players. The baskets have stayed 10 feet high for decades. Traditional Centers were mismatches. NBA coaches and players love mismatches, whenever they can get them.
Thanks Solid D. Appreciate your take.
I've got to digest it all.
For some reason this topic caught me.
Oh...I love the "finesse post players".
To build off of Solid D's thoughts, I think Shaq has changed the way that people perceive the structure of the center position. Some people seem to expect that centers (traditional centers, anyway) will be the sort of physically-dominant, overpowering brutes that Shaq is. That, to me, discredits Shaq to some extent and creates unrealistic expectations for those who might otherwise be considered centers in the NBA. Shaq is a once-in-lifetime force of nature -- a truly massive man who is blessed with exceptional, exceptional athleticism for a person of such stature.
Even the great centers of the last generation (David, Hakeem, Patrick) didn't provide the sort of physically-dominant presence that Shaq does. The notion that we'll ever see a generation of guys like Shaq -- and the notion that Shaq should be the physical measuring stick by which all centers are judged -- is silly. Hakeem excelled as a finesse-type player; Patrick's offensive greatness wasn't necessarily his back-to-the-basket game; David's athleticism and speed set him apart. None of those guys was physically intimidating the way Shaq is, but all of them were considered great centers. Those guys were all exceptional centers as well, and few who ever play the game will be as good; but in terms of the archetype of a center, it's probably somewhere in the combination of that group of players.
With that, I think that there are players in today's game who function in the prototypical mode of a center, even if they aren't considered to be centers. For instance, I think the notion that Duncan should be excluded from consideration as a center, at least at this point in time, is pretty ridiculous -- it's a complete mystery to me how a guy like Tim is deemed to be a power forward (other than by his own desire to be called that) while a guy like Amare Stoudemire is called a center. Tim's low block game is among the greatest in the history of the game and his ability to dominate the game on the offensive end from the block harkens back to the impact that many of the great centers have had. Add to that the fact that Tim is an anchor defender, much like great centers are expected to be, and you have, IMO, a prototypical center far more than you have a prototypical power forward. I think Al Jefferson, for instance, is another guy who plays like a center -- a good one, at that -- but is frequently characterized as a power forward. Pau Gasol can probably fit into that group (though I see Pau called a center more and more these days; a few years ago, when he played with guys like Lorenzen Wright, he was called a power forward) as could Jermaine O'Neal, I think.
There is, to be sure, the major shift in the game that the author notes. The emphasis on speed and perimeter play has certainly changed the way that teams build rosters. Teams certainly seem to believe that they can get effective scoring from the wings and choose to emphasize finding mobile bigs who will rebound and play defense, even if that doesn't mean blocking shots.
I don't think that the author is wrong -- I do think that the center is a dying breed. ReggieMiller's theory strikes me a plausible to explain the why's of that from a real-world standpoint and the author's apparent theory strikes me as a good basis to explain that phenomenon from a basketball standpoint. Still, I'm not sure that the erosion is as pronounced as this author claims, though in a generation, we may see a proliferation of jump-shooting 7 footers who want to play the game much more like Nowitzki or Okur than like Duncan or Yao.
I'll readily admit that I could be full of crap as well.
Wow.
Thanks guys.
Between the blog, Solid, and FWD, I'll be reading this for the next while.
I'm fascinated by the apparant blending of 2 once very specific positions.
The game has changed so much in the 25+ years I've been watching. But it seemed almost seamless, a flowing change. It happened at once so fast and at the same time in slow motion.
For some reason I've latched onto this Center/PF debate.
Got to be the Duncan connection.
I appreciate the input.
i sort of agree with reggie on that. used to be buys like wes unseld who played center but was only 6'7". he led the league in rebounding, was rookie of the year and mvp at the same time.
how tall was bill russell? 6'9". moses malone? 6'10". daryl dawkins? 6'11". willis reed? 6'9". bill walton? 6'11". dave cowens? 6'9"
people were spoiled by kareem and gilmore.
and rik smits
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I remember Smits, he played his college ball at Marist. How about Mark Eaton? Remember that man-mountain Grizzly Adams looking mutant? Sabonis? While maybe not candidates for Springfield these guys were the epitome of the prototypical center and they did set the bar in their day.
I LOVE having a true Center on a team. Duncan can do everything a center can do but he is a natural PF. Everybody is saying 'Dunan plays PF and center most of the time' that is partly true, but adding a true center can't do anything but improve the team right?
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