http://dimemag.com/2007/11/09/hof-watch-tim-duncan/
H.O.F. Watch - Tim Duncan
By Dime Magazine
Every day we’re taking one active NBA star with at least arguable Hall of Fame credentials and breaking down his chances of getting into the Springfield, Mass., hoops mecca. We’re looking at not just past accomplishments, but also how a player’s career realistically projects for the future. For a full explanation of the process, click here. Today’s candidate: Tim Duncan.
TIM DUNCAN (11th year, Spurs)
21.8 pts, 11.9 rebs, 2.5 blks per game
Why: Even the legions of Duncan-haters have to admit TD might be the best power forward of all-time. Four NBA championships, three Finals MVPs, two regular season MVPs, Rookie of the Year in ‘98, All-Star MVP in 2000, plus handfuls of All-Star, All-NBA first team and All-Defensive first team selections and a consensus NCAA Player of the Year in ‘97 … is that enough? There’s a reason Tim is called “The Big Fundamental”; his game is a moving textbook on how to play the post.
Why not: Outside of a sudden swell of positive coverage during last year’s playoffs, Duncan has been largely under-appreciated by the media his entire career due to his “boring” demeanor. Still, the only anti-Duncan argument isn’t even for whether or not he’s one of the greatest of all-time, but whether or not he’s the best PF in the game today.
Our call: IN
The H.O.F. Watch archive
11/8 - Steve Nash
11/7 - Yao Ming
11/6 - Gilbert Arenas
11/5 - Robert Horry
11/2 - Kobe Bryant
11/1 - Grant Hill
10/31 - Dirk Nowitzki
10/30 - Tony Parker
10/29 - Elton Brand
10/26 - Carmelo Anthony
10/25 - Vince Carter
10/24 - Penny Hardaway
10/23 - Alonzo Mourning
10/22 - Allen Iverson
10/19 - Dwyane Wade
10/18 - Chauncey Billups
10/17 - Stephon Marbury
10/16 - Jason Kidd
10/15 - Shawn Marion
10/12 - Ray Allen
10/11 - Chris Bosh
10/10 - Chris Webber
10/9 - Paul Pierce
10/5 - Jermaine O’Neal
10/4 - Gary Payton
10/3 - Tracy McGrady
That's a bold call.Our call: IN
I was going to say!They really gambled on that one!
didn't really "break down his chances".
might as well put them at 100%. he could have retired 2 years ago and still been a shoe-in.
This should have been the complete article.IN
in the why not section it shouldve been blank
ROBERT HORRY (16th year, Spurs/Lakers/Suns/Rockets)
7.2 points, 4.9 rebounds, 1.1 steals, 1.0 blocks per game
Why: The playoffs. “Big Shot Rob” has seven NBA championship rings, more than anyone in history who’s not affiliated with the Russell-era Celtics, and was a legit contributor for each and every one of those championships — two with Houston, three with L.A., and two with San Antonio. Horry has never not been on a playoff team his entire career, and his postseason averages trump his regular-season numbers across the board. Then there are those clutch shots for which Horry has become famous.
Why not: The regular season. Horry’s numbers are pedestrian, he doesn’t have any All-Star appearances, and the only individual accolade he’s achieved is an All-Rookie second team nod. He’s been a backup — and usually not even the 6th man — for most of his career, and his best statistical season (12 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 4 apg, 1.6 spg, 1.5 bpg) would be OK at best for anyone who would be considered a star.
Our call: OUT
TONY PARKER (7th year, Spurs)
15.6 points, 5.4 assists, 3.1 rebounds, 1.0 steals per game
Why: At 25 years old, TP already has three NBA championship rings and copped the Finals MVP in ‘07. In this Spurs’ run of dominance, he’s been the main straw after Tim Duncan stirring the championship tail. His numbers aren’t eye-popping, but he typically ups his scoring in the playoffs (20.8 ppg last postseason) and has proven to be clutch. As long as Duncan’s around, there’s no reason Parker can’t gather a fistful of rings before he’s done.
Why not: Is he just riding Duncan’s coattails? Some people have said so, but the Cavs series deaded a lot of that talk. The true test of Tony’s game will come when Duncan retires and he’s The Man on San Antonio.
Our call: IN
They actually got paid for writing that tripe?
Thanks FWD.
I kept meaning to go through and grab them, didn't get to it.
Here are the up-to-date verdicts:
IN
Tim Duncan
Steve Nash
Yao Ming
Kobe Bryant
Grant Hill
Tony Parker
Carmelo Anthony
Vince Carter
Alonzo Mourning
Allen Iverson
Dwyane Wade
Jason Kidd
Ray Allen
Paul Pierce
Gary Payton
Tracy McGrady
OUT
Gilbert Arenas
Robert Horry
Dirk Nowitzki
Elton Brand
Penny Hardaway
Chauncey Billups
Stephon Marbury
Shawn Marion
Chris Bosh
Chris Webber
Jermaine O'Neal
We need a vBookie on this one.I was going to say!
Grant Hill and Vince Carter over Dirk Nowitzki?
The rest of the calls are pretty obvious, except for Bosh. He's kind of 50-50 in my mind, as I can see him improving.
WTF has Ray Allen done?
17,000 points
7 All-Star appearances
Career 40% shooter from the three-point line
Let's also see what the HOF statistical prediction model used by basketball-reference.com thinks:
Interesting that Nash is so low, apparently the model doesn't value assists all that much. What is the model, which claims a 95.5% accuracy rating? It's based on
IN
Tim Duncan - 99.9% (17th)
Steve Nash - 11.7% (139th)
Yao Ming - insufficient games to predict
Kobe Bryant - 99.8% (20th)
Grant Hill - 76.1% (74th)
Tony Parker - 37.0% (109th)
Carmelo Anthony - insufficient games to predict
Vince Carter - 92.5% (51st)
Alonzo Mourning - 38.1% (108th)
Allen Iverson - 99.7% (21st)
Dwyane Wade - insufficient games to predict
Jason Kidd - 87.0% (51st)
Ray Allen - 69.9% (76th)
Paul Pierce - 77.3% (72nd)
Gary Payton - 88.0% (56th)
Tracy McGrady - 83.6% (62nd)
OUT
Gilbert Arenas - 57.6% (89th)
Robert Horry - 3.7% (185th)
Dirk Nowitzki - 61.1% (87th)
Elton Brand - 23.0% (122nd)
Penny Hardaway - 3.7% (not active)
Chauncey Billups - 3.3% (191st)
Stephon Marbury - 32.9% (113rd)
Shawn Marion - 25.7% (119th)
Chris Bosh - insufficient games to predict
Chris Webber - 73.2% (75th)
Jermaine O'Neal -2.2% (210th)
1. height (in inches)
2. last year indicator (1 if 1960 or before, 0 otherwise)
3. NBA points per game
4. NBA rebounds per game
5. NBA assists per game
6. NBA All-Star game selections
7. NBA championships won
Oh, snap! #7 explains Nash!
More details at http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/hof_prob.html.
So why leave Gilbert Arena's out that list? He's a better scorer and will no doubt surpass 17K points and he will appear in more all-star games as well. Same with Dirk.
They're nuts if they don't think Dirk is in. Dirk's career is ahead of that of Grant Hill and McGrady in every way imaginable.
I'm not an Arenas fan, but I don't see how you can say Tony Parker is on his way in but Gil isn't.
And it's way too early to make a call on Chris Bosh.
It's a lock!
Book it!
No Brainer!
You mean there has to be a discussion (Dime) as to whether or not he will get in? Isn't that pretty damn obvious? Done deal.
Agent Zero is having fluid drained from his knee on the regular. I wouldn't bet a dime on him ringing up 20K points. The "sell by" date on guards of his size that rely heavily on athleticism and have at least one problematic knee is probably 30 years of age. He turns 26 in January, and is struggling mightily with that knee this year, so far.
I know this has been re-hashed a few times, but how do you keep someone out with 7 rings and counting ?
Because career averages of 7.2 ppg and 4.9 rpg are not HOF-worthy no matter how many rings you have.
Rebounds? Does Dennis Rodman get in?
Really, couldn't you make a case for the guy. If we're going by those creditials. He has Championships. He's been on All-Defense teams. He's been the Rebounding leader, who knows how many seasons.
But, could the Hall really take that. Would it loose all credibility as Rodman gives his speech in a wedding gown?
That's the that people want to read about.
Write it.
It's no big mystery that Tim Duncan is going to make the HOF.
Lot to debate there, but I'll just pick one. Paul Pierce is not a hall of famer [to me]. Hall of Good - yes. But I'd never put him better than one of the better second tier players.
He's never been on the 1st or 2nd team All-NBA, he's only a 5 time all-star despite playing in a weak conference, and while he puts up some nice PPG totals, he's always needed a lot of shots to get there.
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