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Interesting that Dallas has only a 0.5% chance of winning division.
Interesting stats
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds
Interesting that Dallas has only a 0.5% chance of winning division.
Might as well call it a season then. He did predict Manu's decline after all.
Spurs with a 31.4% chance of getting to the finals, and a 9.0% chance of winning it? WTF? so they have a 71.3% chance of losing to whomever comes out of the East?
Right... yeah, those stats sure sound telling...
Detroit has a higher chance of Being Champions ( 10% ) than the Spurs ( 9%). While the Celtics have almost a 60% chance.
Something wrong with these numbers...I mean, really.
As do the Pistons.Boston has better odds than SA to win it all.
60% to 9% of winning it all. damn, he's got some good !
I wonder what kind of program Hollinger has to predict all these stuff.
Vegas Odds
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Dallas Mavericks 6-1
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Phoenix Suns 7-2
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San Antonio Spurs 3-1
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Cleveland Cavaliers 50-1
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Detroit Pistons 12-1
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Houston Rockets 25-1
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Chicago Bulls 50-1
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Miami Heat 60-1
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Denver Nuggets 22-1
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Utah Jazz 22-1
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Golden State Warriors 40-1
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Toronto Raptors 60-1
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Washington Wizards 100-1
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Los Angeles Clippers 500-1
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New Jersey Nets 50-1
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Los Angeles Lakers 35-1
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Orlando Magic 12-1
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Seattle Sonics 1000-1
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Portland Blazers 500-1
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New Orleans Hornets 50-1
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Milwaukee Bucks 100-1
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Charlotte BobCats 300-1
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Atlanta Hawks 60-1
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Minnesota T-Wolves 1000-1
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New York Knicks 300-1
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Sacramento Kings 500-1
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Indiana Pacers 100-1
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Philadelphia 76ers 300-1
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Boston Celtics 2-1
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Memphis Grizzlies 500-1
Now, just think if these rankings actually did determine the champion. Then we would have...THE BCS.
The East is just so damn BAD it is disgusting. We have to wait and see the Celts play the great Powers in the WEST to really know how good they are because as usual there is never a serious 2nd threat in the EAST. Half the time there is not even a first threat.
I'll go with Vegas. Otherwise I'd have to believe that Boston has a 180 times greater chance of winning the le than the Mavs.
And some people bet on them at those odds?
Seriously?
These odds are more in line with reality.
I guess, Hollinger's calculation involves it being a lot harder to get out of the West than the East. But given the 30% chance to win the West, you would think that their odds to win it all would be at least 20%, since they would be a 2-1 fav to beat the Eastern rep.
timvp, if you want people to notice your threads, you have to put an attention grabbing le to the thread, like mine. Everyone that sees mine, gets all pissed off and they have to open it.
Nope. See:
- Boston: finalist: 70.4% - champions: 59.6% => 84.66% chance of beating the Western finalist, provided they get there.
- Detroit: finalist: 15.9% - champions: 10.2% => 64.15% chance of beating the Western finalist, provided they get there.
- Orlando: finalist: 11.6% - champions: 6.7% => 57.76 chance of beating the Western finalist, provided they get there.
- Indiana: finalist: 0.2% - champions: 0.1% => 50% chance of beating the Western finalist, provided they get there.
- San Antonio: finalist: 31.4% - champions: 9.0% => 28.66% chance of beating the Eastern finalist, provided they get there.
- Dallas: finalist: 2.9% - champions: 0.3% => 10.34% chance of beating the Eastern finalist, provided they get there.
When was the last time a team visiting the Finals for the first time won the Championship? When was the FIRST time it ever happened?
Normally you have to take your scrapes at the Conference Finals or so before you learn how to win it all. Boston certainly hasn't done it; in fact, of the big three, only Pierce has had any real success in the playoffs and that was a while ago in a shoddy Eastern Conference possibly worse than it is now.
It's really hard to believe that the Spurs, making the Finals, would lose to any team from the East with the exception of possibly Detroit, although I don't see it. Boston could beat San Antonio, conceivably, but their chances would be far, far better against Phoenix, Utah, or even Dallas.
2006?
1950?
1950 NBA Finals: Minneapolis 4, Syracuse 2
Lakers: First Champs of Newly Formed NBA
I'm talking about teams that haven't yet 'paid their dues' in previous playoff battles. This Boston team hasn't. That 2006 Detroit team had been together and was playoff tested.
The 1999 Spurs didn't really have that pedigree -- certainly not with Duncan aboard. They reached the 2nd round in 1998, but after a couple of close games in SLC against the Jazz to open the series, bowed out rather meekly, relatively speaking. It's not as if they went through the same sorts of trials and tribulations that the 80's Pistons or the 90's Bulls went through before winning les.
For that matter, the 1980 Lakers hadn't done that either.
What would KG, Ray Allen, and Paul Pierce know about NBA Finals experience?
The closest the three of them have come is the Conference finals, and just once for each of them. Otherwise, their teams have been slightly above average or just plain suck.
Never underestimate a champion's heart!
2006.
But we all know why.
Again, that's about as good as could have been said for the 1999 Spurs' best 3 players and that team steamrolled the league in the playoffs.
Playoff experience is important, but it's not the end-all-be-all in defining a team's chances to reach the Finals or win a le. When KG, Allen, and Pierce reached the conference finals by themselves, each played relatively well in that setting.
In 2004, KG went for 23.4 ppg (on 46.3% FG), 13.5 rpg, 4.5 apg, 1.0 bpg
In 2002, Pierce went for 23.7 ppg (on 36.4% FG), 8.5 rpg, 3.8 apg, 1.3 bpg, and 1.8 spg
In 2001, Allen went for 27.1 ppg (on 46.8% FG and 50.9% 3Pt), 3.3 rpg, and 5.4 apg.
It's not as if those guys played poorly -- and it's not as if they had each other in those cir stances.
I'm not saying that Boston is a lock to win the le this year, but I think it's unreasonable to count them out just because none of those guys have ever reached the Finals before. Duncan had a great first Finals; so did Wade; so did Jordan.
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