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The Republicans are the underdogs, but a lot can happen in 10 months.
I am by no means a political junky, and i dont really follow current issues all that much. I do know that i think the last 8 years have been the worst 8 years for this country that i can recall myself, and looking in recent history, may be the worst in quite a while for our country.
Do you really think this country is ready to try another republican in office? I just cant see it happening. Im not really leaning to either side, i REALLY like John Edwards and the message he brings, and i really like the "your voice can make a difference" message obama brings, so id say im swayed pretty far left in this election...but a lot of that has to do with what i have seen take place during the current administration, i couldnt imagine even wanting to take a slightest chance someone may come in and keep things status quo...that would be a tragedy i think.
so anyway, to those of you who seem a bit less ignorant than i on these matters...do republicans have a shot at winning this? Or is it pretty much in the bag for the Dems?
The Republicans are the underdogs, but a lot can happen in 10 months.
Ultimately, the race will boil down to a 1 on 1 match between the two candidates; with the Republican holding some extra baggage. Unfortunately for the Dems, they grabbed Congress for this past two years, so that gives the Republican maybe a little wiggle room; along with their ability (or inability) to distance themselves from the current administration. Also, Iraq has been the BIG issue for this being perceived as a HORRIBLE 8 years; if it continues to improve, and that becomes less of a negative for the Republicans, all bets are off. Of course, if the economy goes further South, the Dems benefit.
As Stout said, with 10 months to go, and as of yet no clear nominees, A LOT can happen.
Just curious: Why?
dubya's Iraq fiasco drags on, no political reconciliation, is overwhelmingly unpopular outside of the Repug kool-aid drinkers and the MIC. Iraq has slipped from public's primary concern very probably because the concern expressed in the 2006 election has led to no change in Iraq, no drawn down, no withdrawal. ie, dubya has failed to heed democratic will, so people have lost faith in their ability to influence Iraq. aka, beating your head against a wall.
Unemployment is up. Will it keep going up?
The sub-prime bubble popping crisis is far from over, and its ripples are hitting way beyond the finance industry.
The lower/middle class income has stagnated/declined during dubya's Reign of Error.
There's very little available that can salvage lame-brain/lame-duck dubya's legacy as one of the worst US presidencies. Only 3 or 4 are clearly worse. Notice how dubya is NEVER mentioned by Repug candidates.
The election is the Dem's to lose, but they did it in 2000, so maybe they will repeat. iow, the Repugs will win only if the Dems botch it again. The Repugs clearly won't win on the merits of the candidates, who are even worse than the Dems.
Never underestimate the power of the "I will vote for anyone the Libruls hate" bloc.
I'll grant you all your points. The U.S. is in a tail-spin; economy a mess; the rich are running rough-shod over everybody else! The World HATES us - we're stuck in TWO countries while those around them explode in turmoil - healthcare out of control, the dollar collapsing - heaven forbid another terror attack!
SO...elect a 40 something first term senator to solve ALL the problems!
THAT'S one way the Dems can screw this up.
Would you rather elect a Baptist preacher who can't read, two old men so tired they won't live through their first term, a slimy flip flopper, or Muslim hating nuke crazed home grown fascist?
Don't forget 2004. That was easily one of the most winnable elections for the democrats and AGAIN they screwed the pooch.
1. The absolute mishandling of the entire "war on terror". I really cant see one good thing that has come out of it anywhere. The country has been made to live in a state of fear thinking anyone with a beard has a bomb, and the rest of the world cementing their views of us being an imperialist country. Im tired of being bombared with constant messages of terrorism and grab your gun! I kind of like the idea of world peace...not the opposite.
2. Gas 8 years ago was a bit over 1 dollar a gallon...it is around 3 dollars a gallon now...whether that is bush related or not, i dont really care...i tend to think it has a lot to do with all of the percieved conflict we have around the world...this whole "never trust anyone, cause they could be a terrorist!!" mentality has sent everyone running around in a panic...gas prices suck, and bush has the reigns when it all changed.
3. The housing market fiasco...Once again, may or may not be his problem, but everything sure went to with him in office.
4. I have never seen so many accusations, retirements, indictments, arrests..etc of politicians...it seems like anyone who is remotely related to the bush administration has been dirty in some form or fashion...It really makes you wonder what the is going on, when half the people in power have some sort of wierd criminal background, or are arrested for trying to get hand jobs in bathrooms. At least Clinton got a bj from a halfway decent looking female.
Im sure there is more, but i gotta run to lunch...i just am really disgusted with politics after the past 8 years...it has given me a really bad taste in my mouth and made me really disrespect the presidency in general which i think is horrible...My grandpa even said, who by the way is a very devout republican, in his day, the president was like a movie star, or a saint..or similar...you never said anything bad about him, it was a HIGHLY honorable position...he gets disgusted at how bad this administration has tainted that image...that has all changed dramatically with W.
I'll echo what others have said...
While it looks like a democrat is primed to take back the White House, there is alot of time left.
And in a general election, all bets are off because the political machines for each candidate have the full backing of their party and the American public is easily swayed.
I do think the Republican disadvantage can be minimized, however.
IMO, if McCain is the Republican nominee and Clinton is the Democratic nominee, the Republicans have the best chance to keep the White House.
I really hope Clinton is not the nominee...i think that would pretty much make this whole election a wash...
i want to vote for change, not the same ol ...I like the message that obama and edwards are bringing to the table...whether they can execute it or not is to be seen, but at least they seem to be pretty strong in their convictions to try.
I'm writing in my vote for Boutons.
He whines, complains, es, and moans about everything. He trusts no one, and assumes the worst in everyone. Best of all, he does nothing about any of it.
He's the perfect candidate.
Obama is the dem's best chance. This nation wont or is not ready to vote in a woman.
I don't think a Democrat has a chance of winning. And I'm serious.
Nobody trusts them on Terrorism. The "ignore it, it will go away if we just talk to them nicely" approach is pretty much ludicrous. They voted to go into IRAQ (and nobody lied to them, no matter how much they try to convince themselves)...then have done everything to undermine the troops and because of this...have given support and morale boosters to those fighting them.
That alone will prolly do the democrats in.
Economy hasn't been bad. Low inflation, low unemployment. The sub-prime thing is a banking/borrower issue that bankers and borrowers created on their own. No govt bailout for the borrowers who got in over their heads, or didn't plan correctly when they signed those ARM's. And no bailout for the bankers who gave these unqualified borrowers money in the first place. They created the situation, they each need to deal with it. That's taking responsibility for your own actions. None of this has to do with current administration.
Gas prices are what they are. That's the market and the oil producing cartels doing their thing. They are, in essence, cutting their own throats doing this...as increasing costs create opportunities for alternatives. That's how markets work, if left to actually do their job. Again, not the fault or responsibility of govt, or any one administration.
The falling dollar is attributed to many things. Mostly, it's due to the fact that we make very little here anymore, and buy HUGE amounts of imports. Gazillions of dollars floating around overseas because of this. When that happens, the dollar loses value. Interest rates can only have very limited affect on movement in or out of any currency. Debt and Defecits do have affect on the dollar. We've been running defecits long before BUSH, and the national debt is growing every year. Mostly because of the huge amount of govt spending on Social programs (they account for 65% of the budget, and MANDATED BY LAW to INCREASE every year. It's against the law to cut any social program. You have to change the law to even think about cutting them.) If this issue is not dealt with, our huge debt will continue to demand countries like China to support it.
No one is actually talking about this much. Republican or Democrat. And the issue is too complex for a soundbite media to pay much attention. So, to blame the current administration, or Bush in particular for a problem that both sides have ignored forever...is just being blindly partisan. They are all responsible...as are WE for not DEMANDING this be dealt with. Everyone looks to blame someone else for political points, pretty much the only thing both sides do with the issue...blame.
This is not even close to being an atypical bad bad period for the country. The debt rises, spending increases, conflicts overseas...sounds like a pretty typical period actually. 9-11 is really the only thing that has happened to make it unusual.
I remember the Carter Years of close to 20% inflation. The Nixon years of Nam and Lines miles long to get a "ration" of gas on your day. There are those that remember Soup lines during the depression.
No, this has been pretty typical. Mebbe the rhetoric from the left has been unusually coarse. But, the world is always coming to an end for them...you get used to it.
Good Lord, I don't know if there are enough 4-letter words for Boutons to reply to this one. You're going to get flamed.
Good take, though.
SouthernFried would have a valid argument about voter preferences in a United States where most people were libertarians.
I really get tired of all of the people trying to scare us into voting in war mongers because of this buzz word "terrorism". Everyone is running around with their hands waving in the air shouting the MUSLIMS OMG GET EM! SAVE THE CHILDREN! C'mon...Yes Terrorism is bad, but i personally dont see there being any more terrorism today than there was 25 years ago...Difference is today we are constantly being force fed this on the news...I dont think Terrorists were invented on 911, im pretty sure they have been around a while, and will always be around...if i was listening to what fox news tells me every few minutes, id sware there were bomb carrying jihadi's running down my street this very moment...and there isn't...Stay vigilant on it yes, as would anyone with half a brain in power, but you can only use 911 so many times as your rally cry before people think...move the on, lets get on with our lives.
I think if the Republican is Huckabee and the Democrat is Obama....then I think Huckabee and the Republicans have a very good chance. Sadly, I think race is a factor. Now if the Republican is some loser like Rudy, old geeezer Thompson, or loose with facts Romney, then I think Obama might win.
Obviously age is a factor in your mind and you wont vote
for an older man. And speaking of facts, Hucabee has a lot
of facts of his governorship he needs to explain.
If Huck goes up against Obama, he will get crushed. Obama might even win Texas in that scenario.
I just can't wait till we get to hear about what these guys did back in college! Man oh man, that's good stuff.
Reality check....
96% of Iowans are white.
Nuff said.
And Liberal. Nuff said
Rural white farmers are liberal?
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