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We can only hope
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...ate_count.html
My my my, isn't this turning out to be an interesting primary.
NO one saw Obama closing the distance this fast. Even if this isn't completely accurate, it sure looks like a sign of the turning tide.
We can only hope
If Barack wins Texas I will be super stoked. He's been gaining momentum ever since he pulled those shocker wins on Super Tuesday.
I see no reason why Obama can't be compe ive in Texas, Ohio, and Penn. He has almost a month to establish his ground organization and campaign for votes in the three key states.
He already has momentum going for him, and all he needs is the time to make his case. Had he more than a couple weeks to focus on the big Super Tuesday states (Cali, NY, etc.) I think he might have been able to come up with a win or a much stronger showing.
If Obama can win two of the three, I think he has the inside track for the nomination because he would prove that he could take a big state without having Clinton's name recognition, which is one of her biggest "big-state" strengths.
The delegate counts are all just estimates so don't take any of them too seriously. The caucus delegates are not decided yet and thats why they're simply an estimate.
Texas for all intents and purposes is extremely likely to go for Clinton. Ohio is a huge state in which Barak may have a chance but I'm not sure I'm going to get my hopes up. Don't expect it to settle the election in any way no matter the outcome.
This will go down to the convention. Barack needs to really push hard in Texas. Latinos 4 Barack are working hard to get the messae out.
Manny, you must have forgotten North and East Texas
with their large black population. And I am not so sure
the young Hispanic voters will go for Billary.
The "lady" is in serious trouble and she knows it.
Anyhow, we shall see.
I saw in the paper this morning that Obama is not
coming to San Antonio. Which means he thinks it
is not worthwhile and will go to Billary. But it is
only one segment of Texas. Austin, I understand is
a big Obama supporter. And their are a ton of
Hispanic voters in Austin.
Ohio is much more important because it will be in play in the general election. To win there shows that you have a good chance to carry it in the general. Texas will not be in play - everyone knows that Texas will go to the Republicans in November.
^^It is the delegates that count. That is why Billary is going
to work South Texas and the loyal Dimms here for all it is
worth.
Obama gains momentum and Hillary replaces her campaign manager.
Texas delegate predictions:
D: Clinton 125, Obama 103
R: McCain 140
Really? Since 1/27 I showed the trend that shows Obama as the winner:
I will repeat the numbers from my 1/17 posting. As of the Michigan primaries, we had the following delegate count:
0190 Clinton
0103 Obama
0051 Edwards
0001 Kucinich
Out of 4049 delegates.
--------
The current count for delegates is:
0230 Clinton
0152 Obama
0061 Edwards
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Looks like Hillary is winning, right?
Think again.
Now here is the projections based on the current trends:
1780 Obama
1538 Clinton
0731 Edwards
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You ask now, why does Hillary have 230 to Obama's 152, yet Obama is on the winning trend? It's simple. The democrats have "super delegates" which are not beholden to the state votes. They are communistic (union) voters. So far, of the 490 super delegates, Hillary's lead is accounted for by these commies supporting her, but 38% of them have cast their votes. Only 490 super delegate votes remain undetermined. Only 137 of the 3253 state delegates have been counted. Obama's trend with the state delegates, which represent the people rather than the unions is almost 50% at 63. Hillary gets 48 of them, and Edwards gets 26.
The Mexicans endorse Obama.
"riograndeguardian.com — State Rep. Pete Gallego, chairman of the Mexican American Legislative Caucus, has announced he is endorsing Barack Obama for president."
Some Top Clinton Backers Worry Campaign Is "Slipping Away"
AP | February 11, 2008 08:35 PM
UPDATE: The New York Times reports that after a "buck-up-the-troops" conference call on Monday, some superdelegates supporting Clinton are now wavering:
Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton and her advisers increasingly believe that, after a series of losses, she has been boxed into a must-win position in the Ohio and Texas primaries on March 4, and she has begun reassuring anxious donors and superdelegates that the nomination is not slipping away from her, aides said on Monday.
Mrs. Clinton held a buck-up-the-troops conference call on Monday with donors, superdelegates and other supporters; several said afterward that she had sounded tired and a little down, but determined about Ohio and Texas.
They also said that they had not been especially soothed, and that they believed she might be on a losing streak that could jeopardize her compe iveness in those states.
"She has to win both Ohio and Texas comfortably, or she's out," said one superdelegate who has endorsed Mrs. Clinton, and who spoke on condition of anonymity to share a candid assessment. "The campaign is starting to come to terms with that." Campaign advisers, also speaking privately in order to speak plainly, confirmed this view.
Several Clinton superdelegates, whose votes could help decide the nomination, said Monday that they were wavering in the face of Mr. Obama's momentum after victories in Washington State, Nebraska, Louisiana and Maine last weekend.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/0...tml?view=print
===================
The drama is fantastic!!
I feel some more Hillary tears will be seen!
Obama also picked up Charlie Gonzalez's endorsement as well as a few others in the Valley today.
Are there any poll numbers for Texas so far?
I think enough Dem superdelegates will "go along" with the pledged delegates to vote for the pledged winner. To avoid "2000-ing" their own party and to give John InSaine the presidency and more of the same old and Repug/radical right ups we have had for 7 years.
One way for the Dems to lose this election is for the superdelegates to overrule the pledged delegates, pissing off the losing candidate's side, and starting a civil war in the Dem party, esp with 2000 still so fresh and so disastrously costly.
Last edited by boutons_; 02-12-2008 at 09:15 AM.
Nice turnaround, if he wins it, he will be a big upgrade from hillary and a MAJOR upgrade from Bush, but i don't see it happening, he probably isn't corupt enough to do it.
Superdelegates should be illegal anyway. Why have primaries? Since the Dems seem so confident in their own greatness by giving individuals the power to elect candidates, why even ask the American people their opinion?
Just give all the votes to old, rich WASPs and have them tell us who to vote for.
Back to reality, one would hope the SDs stay with the popular vote of the people...
The ing fact that I even have to say that causes me to see red.
What is interesting is how Obama will fare with primary voters now that Clinton's inevitability as the nominee has been obliterated. Super Tuesday put a big crack in that, but not totally as Clinton held her own. But the following primaries and caucuses have really destroyed the notion that she will be the nominee when the dust clears. If the primaries today fall for Obama with big margins of victory, I'd say he's the inevitable candidate now. I think that will overcome whatever organization she has in place in Texas and Ohio.
I concur. If the Obama ground roots campaign can get out the message to the young hispanic vote it could make a big difference. That is where the opportunity lies. The older Hispanic population is loyal to the Clinton's and will be harder to persuade. My mother is sticking with Hillary. My dad hasn't decided yet.
I concur. That is a correct statement.
My mother is going with Clinton also, dad was going for Edwards and now is undecided. anyways, guess i'm the only one not crazy about obama these days.
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