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If it plays out as you say, there could be some really serious
problems for the dimms when they come out of the convention.
Many hurt feelings and wounds that will be slow to heal.
Here's how the Democratic Primary will go from here on out:
Obama will extend his lead in pledged delegates as February primaries play out
Hillary will narrow the gap with good showings in Texas and Ohio.
Obama will have a delegate lead somewhere around 1750-1650 going into the Convention.
Hillary's ground game at the convention will strongarm enough of the superdelegates to give her an extremely narrow nomination win, despite losing both the pledged delegate and primary popular vote counts.
There will be a repeat of Chicago 1968.
Obama will be pressured to accept the VP nomination. He will refuse.
Obama's core demographics will abandon the Democratic Party in droves. An opportunistic progressive independent candidate (or two) will jump into the race, as much in order to keep defections to McCain to a minimum as for anything else.
Nevertheless, Hillary will lose, and she will go down in history as the presumptive autocrat who fractured the Democratic Party coalition and jeopardized its future to advance her own self-serving ambition.
If it plays out as you say, there could be some really serious
problems for the dimms when they come out of the convention.
Many hurt feelings and wounds that will be slow to heal.
Not a chance in it plays out that way. Whoever leads the popular vote and has more delegates going into the convention will win.
Please don't make any type of predictions in the Spurs forum.
Every logical bone in me says you have to be right.
But this is politics; and these are the Clintons.
If it's close; I definitely see it playing out JUST like that; with potentially one difference;:
ALL KINDS of crap of promised to Obama if he simply acedes to the VP chair - and he takes it knowing he'll still be a young guy in 8 years (of course at that point he may be so tied to the Clinton legacy, he'll be electoral plutonium).
^^I just cant see them on the same ticket. I know lot of folks
want it, but I just don't think their ego's would allow it. Billary
especially. And Obama knows he has a shot the next time
around if he doesn't make it this time.
But I can definitely see problems ahead at the convention if
neither of them have it sewed up, which I don't they will.
Not a chance in . If they elect someone who doesn't win the popular vote they have no shot at winning. The Clinton's don't have never ending power over the establishment and I think thats been well noted.
Its a pipe dream that makes for something different for certain columnists to write about and a republican wet dream but that doesn't mean there is any realistic chance of it happening.
I would put nothing past the Clintons at this point. The wrinkle to add is that they could attempt to negotiate seating delegations from Florida and Michigan who heretofore will not be seated at the convention.
Oh I think they'll do everything they can, but that doesn't mean it'll happen.
Obama pulls away is my prediction.
Unfortunately (or fortunately if you like to watch slow-motion trainwrecks), the way the Democratic delegates are apportioned, that is not very likely.
Also, with something going down THIS CLOSE; the Clintons will play the Michigan and Florida cards; two large states she carried whose delegate are not being counted.
Rather ironic is this scenario plays out. Here is Hillary winding up as the Democratic Candidate despite losing both the pledged delegate and primary popular vote.
Now didn't she rail against another politician that won a big election because in her eyes he didn't win the popular vote?
Will this primary election be decided in the courts? Will Clinton v. Obama go alongside Bush v. Gore? The mind boggles.
So be it.
This is EXACTLY as the framers wanted it.
I have a feeling that this will be the last election in which super delegates will play a role. They'll find some other way to get party lifers around the age of 70 to the convention.
The concept of the superdelegate seems to be the sort of thing that will exactly let this scenario play out.
Having whined and cried about dubya screwing Gore, the Dem super-delegates overriding Obama winning the pledged delegates will cause an extremely negative reaction by the Obama supporters, who might stay home and hand the election to a murderous macho war-mongering 100-year-occupier McCain.
Hillary doesn't give a about the Dem party, only about winning, so the the above situation causing a nasty civil war within the Dem party won't bother her one bit, as long as she gets the nomination.
My guess is she'd rather be the losing Dem candidate than have Obama be the winning Dem candidate.
Last edited by boutons_; 02-11-2008 at 05:54 PM.
The Democratic convention will be compe ive, maybe divisive. It will draw a lot of media attention and how the winning candidate wins and how the losing candidate reacts to losing will go a long way toward the Democrat's chances in November. I don't think that whoever loses can afford to ruin the winner's chances in November. It will be a good way to become a pariah. You can see how it is playing out in their campaigns as they criticize each other, but try not to go overboard.
As for whoever wins the vote count (which makes little sense because of caucuses vs. closed primaries vs. open primaries) not getting the nomination, both candidates knew the rules when they started. Play by the rules, don't burn any bridges, and I think the Democratic nominee will be bruised, but battle-tested.
Yes, I am very sure that if Hillary needs the Michigan and/or Florida delegates to capture the nomination, she will graciously demur in observance of the predetermined rules. Because if anything defines the Clintons, it is an altruistic regard for the good of their party and their nation over their own narrow political ambition. No doubt.
Why doesn't Obama REALLY go after Hillary? He has enough ammunition to make her look like.... Hillary Clinton. I am not buying this excuse that Obama doesn't want to come off as the asshole who gets into dirty politics. Why should he sit back, being the underdog that he is, and not try to crush her.
Is it because the shadow behind the democratic desk told them to keep it somewhat civil and not make her (and the party) look so evil?
So he should be the nice guy and just watch Hillary squeak out a win in the end? I see all this talk about the party becoming divided anyways, yet Obama still holds back from actually trying to beat his compe ion.
It's a Clinton. You either step on the throat or get a knife in the back lulz
This is the part of your theory that doesn't hold up. Superdelegates are made up of present and former political office holders, they know how to read polls too.
A nomination process filled with mudslinging is horrilbe for the party's chances in the general election. Obama needs Clinton supporters to win the general so he can't allinate them now can he?
I hear what you are saying Manny, but this is the Clintons. They would pros ute Chelsea on a street corner if they thought she could turn enough tricks to get Hillary the nomination.
Clinton hater forum.
a few things that dont quite fit:
1) Obama and Clinton have been adamant in their support of each other (even if its purely for the unity of the party, the image of a united democratic party is particularly strong right now)
2) there is no reason why Obama wouldn't accept the VP position, that sets him up for a 2016 run, and would ensure 16 years of democratic control over the presidency.
3) you clearly don't know what happened in Chicago in 1968, because the Yippies were there to protest the war, Chicago was their place of choice because the democratic party under Johnson had gotten us into that mess, and it was a great place for media exposure.
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