Hollinger: New and improved Kidd trade is still risky

[YoMamaIsCallin]

from ESPN Insider:

It's funny how things work out sometimes. Thanks to the loose lips of Jerry Stackhouse and the unwillingness of Devean George to be sent to New Jersey, the Mavs find themselves consummating a better version of the Jason Kidd trade than the one they originally tried to make, if the new version of the trade goes through.

No longer will they risk losing Stackhouse to a rival Western Conference team or, at best, be without his services during a key 30-day span while the team positions itself for the playoffs. And instead of giving up a quasi-useful role player in George, the Mavs will be trading the less effective Trenton Hassell along with the semiretired Keith Van Horn. Sure, the new deal takes a bigger chunk out of Mark Cuban's wallet, but that's his problem. If I'm a Mav or a Mavs fan, I like this trade better than the previous one.

That said, the whiff of panic that accompanied the original version of this trade hasn't dissipated. As with Phoenix's acquisition of Shaquille O'Neal, this feels more like a knee-jerk response to the Lakers' acquisition of Pau Gasol than the Mavs actually filling a huge need.

Though the price is less than it was in the original deal, it's still large. Dallas will send Devin Harris, DeSagana Diop, Hassell, Maurice Ager, a signed-and-traded Van Horn, $3 million cash and two first-round picks to New Jersey for Kidd, Antoine Wright, Malik Allen and a second-rounder. (Technically it would be two trades, with Wright for a No. 2 as a side deal in order to meet league roster requirements; also, Dallas has to waive a player, most likely Nick Fazekas, in order to sign Van Horn.)

Obviously, the two protagonists are Kidd and Harris. So let me ask you a provocative question that I brought up when the three-way version of this deal was kicked around: Would you trade Harris for Kidd, straight up?

Based on notoriety alone, most people would offer a quick "yes." But shine that light a little closer. Kidd's PER this season is 16.06, while Harris is way ahead at 18.72. This may shock some people who have seen only the reports of his triple-doubles, but Kidd is scoring at a much lower rate this season, he's shooting a hideous 36.6 percent from the field, and his turnover rate has skyrocketed.

While he's far from the only culprit, his decline is one reason the Nets are 25th in Offensive Efficiency. The Mavs, in contrast, were second with Harris as quarterback, until injured his ankle on Jan. 27; since then, they've dropped to fifth.

Per 40 minutes, Harris averages nearly seven points more than Kidd, which is huge. He also gets to the line more than twice as often and shoots a far better percentage from the field. His true shooting percentage of 59.2 dwarfs Kidd's 48.3. Think about that difference for a second -- for every nine shots they take (including free throws), Harris has a one-point advantage.

Finally, Harris is a major asset at the defensive end; he has the quickness to defend the Parkers, Pauls and Nashes of the West and was second in the league in offensive fouls drawn last season, according to 82games.com. By my methods, he was the best defensive point guard in the league in 2006-07. Unfortunately, the one guy he struggled against was Baron Davis, a fact that may be seared in the Mavs' memories given how last season ended.

Kidd's two big advantages are passing and rebounding, and the differences in those categories are gargantuan, make no mistake. But if you break it down, it seems his numbers in those two categories might decline in Dallas' system.

As far as assists go, the Mavs are one of the league's most isolation-heavy teams and annually have among the league's lowest rates of assisted baskets; the Nets are the opposite and are annually among the highest. It's possible Dallas changes some of that to take advantage of Kidd, of course. Still, I imagine the high-post isos for Dirk Nowitzki and Josh Howard will remain the bread-and-butter of the offense.

Additionally, Kidd's passing skills are most lethal in transition, but the Mavs run infrequently. While some still imagine Dallas as a Wild West Don Nelson outfit, the Mavs have been one of the league's slowest-paced teams since Avery Johnson took over.

On the rebounds, New Jersey's frontcourt rebounding was historically bad for the first two months of this season, as I mentioned in another piece -- leaving a ton of boards available for Kidd to grab. In fact, Kidd's rebound rate has declined quite a bit since Josh Boone took over for Jason Collins; fewer caroms have been left over for the guards. Similarly, he won't have as many boards available for him to snag in Dallas, where the Mavs are already eighth in the league in defensive rebound rate (nearly all of Kidd's boards are defensive).

OK, so he won't score as much as Harris and he might lose a bit on his rate of rebounds and assists. One can still come up with some offsetting positives. For starters, Kidd is a leader in a locker room that appears in need of one. Dallas' testicular for ude has been questioned in the past two postseasons, so perhaps he can make a difference there. And it's possible he'll be more motivated in Big D than he was in New Jersey; at the very least, I suspect he'll suffer from fewer headaches.

In addition, Kidd is a good defender against bigger guards, which means Dallas might be able to play him and Jason Terry together for 40 minutes in place of the 30 scoreless minutes they were getting each night from the Eddie Jones-Hassell combo.

But before you get too excited, look into the future. Kidd is 10 years older and costs five times as much as Harris. Even after Harris' extension kicks in Kidd will be triple the cost. Which player would you rather have in 2008-09? What about in 2009-10, presuming the Mavs extend Kidd, when he'll be 36 and Harris is 26?

I know, I know -- this move was made primarily with this season in mind. So let's say after all that, you still like Kidd better than Harris. Do you like him so much better that you're willing to include your best defensive big man and two first-round draft choices?

Diop was Dallas' best low-post defender. (Side note: guess that Shaq trade had them real worried, huh?) With Diop's departure, Erick Dampier is the only true center remaining in Dallas, meaning he'll be forced to play more than his current 22.8 minutes per game, unless the Mavs are about to make another trade.

The Mavs are 5-5 since Harris went out. It's not a good 5-5 either. Of the wins, two were against Memphis and one came against Milwaukee; the losses included one-sided setbacks against Detroit, New Jersey and Philadelphia. In fact, the irony of this trade is that a big reason for Dallas' recent struggles is that Harris has been injured.

That takes us to an aspect of this trade nobody is paying any attention to: Harris' huge impact on the Mavs' success over the past two seasons. In 2006-07, when Dallas won 67 games, guess who had the biggest on-court/off-court point differential? Hint: It wasn't the MVP. According to 82games.com, Dallas was a whopping plus-14.2 points per 48 minutes with Harris on the court. Moreover, the Harris-Nowitzki combo was the single most effective player combination in the league.

This season, the Harris-Terry-Howard-Nowitzki-Dampier unit has played 164 minutes together and outscored opponents by 43 points (that's a whopping 12.6 points per 48 minutes). The four most common Harris-Terry arrangements all have massively positive point differentials, adding up to an advantage of plus-20.7 points per 48 minutes(!). So much for the idea that you can't play two small guards together.

In the final analysis, it seems Dallas gave up two first-rounders and its best interior defender for what is, even with the most rose-colored glasses, a marginal short-term upgrade at the point and a certain long-term downgrade.

It's possible that this trade will work, but my issue with this deal is that the risk and reward seem out of line. Much like Phoenix with the Shaq deal, I can't help but wonder if the Mavs are fixated on what Kidd was 18 months ago rather than what he'll be during the next 18 months.

Let me repeat that I'm not nearly not as down on this trade as I am on the Suns' acquisition of O'Neal, and I'm less down on this version than the past one. But even with Hassell and Van Horn in the deal instead of George and Stackhouse, I think it puts Dallas further from a le the next few seasons, rather than closer.

[1Parker1]

I know it was only the All Star game, but after watching Dirk get bullied around in the 4th quarter of that, I am convinced that there's no way the Mavs can be considered contenders with their current roster. They're in the same boat as the Suns. They weren't going anywhere with their current roster make-up. Shaking things up, arguably for a player who is at the end of the career may or may not work. But at least it gives them a chance. They each also got a player in return who helps them in the area they are most lacking. So it's not like they traded for just any player.

[1Parker1]

Oh and I'm getting tired of Hollinger using these bogus stats to help make his point. How about pointing out what Harris's stats are in close 4th quarter games? How about how his execution and playmaking are in the playoffs? Who would any team pick to have the ball in their hands down 2 points with 24 sec left in a playoff situation? Would you rather rely on Devin Harris to make the right play, or Jason Kidd? How about making those points Hollinger?!

[MoSpur]

I hate the whole Hollinger thing.

[Holt's Cat]

[Hemotivo]

Dallas' testicular for ude has been questioned in the past two postseasons

[NASpurs]

I thought you needed to have testicles in order for your testicular for ude to be questioned.

[SenorSpur]

I thought you needed to have testicles in order for your testicular for ude to be questioned.

Ouch!

[roycrikside]

They need to double Tim every time now and have nobody who can guard Parker. Yeah, great trade Mavs. People who bash Hollinger are like people who bash Gore or Kerry for being "boring" and went with the more plain-spoken folksy guy. There's like a bias against nerds in this country.

I thought Hollinger made an effective argument for both sides of the trade. Pure basketball-wise, I just don't see how it makes them better. Chauncey Billups said the same thing. They'll definitely be a worse defensive team, and it's hard to see them improving offensively with Kidd's horrible shooting and the Mavs' Iso-based offense limiting the effectiveness of Kidd's passing.

Whatever benefits the trade can produce would have to be intangible/leadership based because basketball-wise, it just doesn't make a whole lot of sense, especially when you give up Diop and the two first rounders.

[Holt's Cat]

They need to double Tim every time now and have nobody who can guard Parker. Yeah, great trade Mavs. People who bash Hollinger are like people who bash Gore or Kerry for being "boring" and went with the more plain-spoken folksy guy. There's like a bias against nerds in this country.

I thought Hollinger made an effective argument for both sides of the trade. Pure basketball-wise, I just don't see how it makes them better. Chauncey Billups said the same thing. They'll definitely be a worse defensive team, and it's hard to see them improving offensively with Kidd's horrible shooting and the Mavs' Iso-based offense limiting the effectiveness of Kidd's passing.

Whatever benefits the trade can produce would have to be intangible/leadership based because basketball-wise, it just doesn't make a whole lot of sense, especially when you give up Diop and the two first rounders.

The only way you can make sense of this trade is that the current crew was broken after the '06 Finals and then the 1st round choke.

[Ghost Writer]

Gee, I thought they just got an All-Star PG for a decent young one and a bunch of sh1t.

The Mavs don't make moves to beat the Spurs.

They make moves to try to get better on their own.

[Findog]

I know it was only the All Star game

You can stop right there if you want to be taken seriously.

[CaptainLate]

Oh and I'm getting tired of Hollinger using these bogus stats to help make his point. How about pointing out what Harris's stats are in close 4th quarter games? How about how his execution and playmaking are in the playoffs? Who would any team pick to have the ball in their hands down 2 points with 24 sec left in a playoff situation? Would you rather rely on Devin Harris to make the right play, or Jason Kidd? How about making those points Hollinger?!

The point is, with this trade the Mavs won't be in position to win close games anymore. The game will already be lost by that time (see their recent 5-5 record)

[Holt's Cat]

Gee, I thought they just got an All-Star PG for a decent young one and a bunch of sh1t.

The Mavs don't make moves to beat the Spurs.

They make moves to try to get better on their own.

And make it easier for the Spurs to beat them. This is precisely why you don't make panic moves, especially when your team just won the le last year and your big 3 aren't going anywhere anytime soon.

[Ghost Writer]

And make it easier for the Spurs to beat them. This is precisely why you don't make panic moves, especially when your team just won the le last year and your big 3 aren't going anywhere anytime soon.

The Mavs lost to an 8 seed in the first round last year.

They've been lacking a true point since losing Steve Nash.

The Mavs make moves to improve, not match up better with the Spurs.

Wake up.

[Holt's Cat]

How many rings do the Mavs have?

Perhaps it is in part due to making moves like this?

[Shank]

They may have been damned with Harris and now they may be damned with Kidd. But the intrigue lies in rolling the ball out with the best possible lineup and seeing it where it gets you. One of three markets (PHX, LA and DAL) are going to play the "dammit - I knew we shouldn't have made a move" card when their team bows out of the playoffs. I'd rather Dallas takes their shot with Kidd running things than bowing out in the early rounds of the playoffs once again this year.

[wildbill2u]

If the trade doesn't work out to mean a championship THIS year, then the trade is going to look worse every year thereafter.

Failure to ever conquer a Championship and Desperation makes you do a lot of strange things.

The Spurs have won enough championships where they can be conservative, know they have potential help for the Big Three coming next year, and redo the roster when the cap clearing contracts of Barry, Horry, etc. expire.

[1Parker1]

Gee, I thought they just got an All-Star PG for a decent young one and a bunch of sh1t.

The Mavs don't make moves to beat the Spurs.

They make moves to try to get better on their own.

Never thought I'd agree with you. Spurs fans think just because the Mavs now don't match up as well with the Spurs, it's the end of the road for them. They match up a lot better against other teams now I think. Especially in big game moments. It's not guaranteed the road to the Finals will go through SA.

[1Parker1]

You can stop right there if you want to be taken seriously.

Well then, let's talk about Dirk in the Mavs last 10 games where they're 5-5. Can I be taken seriously then?

Mav fan has perpetual PMS when it comes to their team. So overly sensitive!

[Ghost Writer]

How many rings do the Mavs have?

Perhaps it is in part due to making moves like this?

How many Duncan and Robinsons were they lucky enough to draft with #1 lottery picks?

They got good the old fashioned way... making it happen.

[Shank]

Well then, let's talk about Dirk in the Mavs last 10 games where they're 5-5. Can I be taken seriously then?

Mav fan has perpetual PMS when it comes to their team. So overly sensitive!

You mean the last 10 games before the All-Star break in the middle of the regular ing season?

Some may be overly sensitive, but we don't freak out over .500 streaks in February. Let's not overreact.

[Findog]

Well then, let's talk about Dirk in the Mavs last 10 games where they're 5-5. Can I be taken seriously then?

Yeah, let's talk about Dirk's last ten games:

25, 10 and 5 with the awesomeness that is JJ Barea running the offense, along with no Stack, no Devin, no Josh Howard and Erick Dampier for the last 3. Yeah, it's on him that we're sucking.

Mav fan has perpetual PMS when it comes to their team. So overly sensitive!

Hey, I'm not the one making player evaluations based off of the All-Star Game.

[Findog]

You mean the last 10 games before the All-Star break in the middle of the regular ing season?

Some may be overly sensitive, but we don't freak out over .500 streaks in February. Let's not overreact.

Dirk has put up 25, 10 and 5 over the last ten. Clearly, he needs to step it up.

[Findog]

How many rings do the Mavs have?

Perhaps it is in part due to making moves like this?

It must be nice to fall into David Robinson and Tim Duncan. How does one get the top pick in the lottery when a once in a generation player comes along? Is that luck, or is there some sort of method to follow?