At least Rocky Had a Prayer

**Nbadan** · 04-02-2008

When people say Hillary needs to win every contest by 30%, give or take, from here on they ain't just blowing smoke....

Right now, Obama's got a 162 pledged delegate lead.

Obama- 1,415.5
Clinton- 1253.5

There 566 pledged delegates left up for grabs.

If she wins PA by 12%, and their 158 pledged delegates by the same margin, she'd get 88 pledged delegates and Obama would get 70. Making it:

Obama- 1485.5
Clinton- 1341.5

So she would close on Obama's lead, but the pool of pledged delegates up for grabs would only be 406, and she'd still be down by 144 pledged delegates.

So then she would need to win the remaining states by some 35%, given a 12 pt win in PA. Her chances would actually go down.

So that's why we're not fooling when we say Clinton needs a 30% pt win in PA. And she doesn't win the nomination if she does it, she'd just be on the right track. She's also need to win by 30% in North Carolina, West Virginia, Indiana, Oregon, etc...etc...etc....