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If he wins PA this thing is over. But I got my hopes up too when I thought he was going to win TX. Clinton is slowly fading...
"Illinois Sen. Barack Obama is surging in Pennsylvania, according to several new polls. In one survey, released by Public Policy Polling this morning, Obama is now leading New York Sen. Hillary Clinton for the first time, 45 percent to 43 percent. That represents a closing of a 26-percentage-point Clinton advantage from only two and a half weeks ago"
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0408/9335.html
If he wins PA this thing is over. But I got my hopes up too when I thought he was going to win TX. Clinton is slowly fading...
That poll is full of . I wouldn't believe it no matter what. I promise you this is still a 10 point race in Clinton's favor attm. Obama needs to do his damned best to downplay expectations because the worst thing that could happen would be the media acts as if Clinton came back when she wins Penn just like what happend in Texas. I seriously doubt he ever really had a lead here in Texas and no matter how much he closed in the little time he had they painted it as a comeback for Clinton. GMAFB.
Yeah thats a good point. Gives her more justification to continue to prolong this thing in the thinking that whenever she is down she can mount a comeback. But the fact of the matter is she was never down to begin with.
Forget about the conspiracies, her momentum went south right after her Bosnia pathological lying episode. And rightly so.
She broke the politicians Golden Rules on lying;
1. Lying must be done subtley
2. Always leave wiggle room when lying
3. You must convince the majority that the lie is actually the truth, then let them convince the minority that it's the truth for you.
4. White lies pass muster.
5. If you must lie big in an effort to get votes, do it close enough to voting day so the media won't have time to inform the voters of the lie until after the vote.
6. Lying is almost always overlooked by your supporters when running against the opposing Party <peculiar to the Marxist/Socialist Party>.
I agree. Until every poll shows him well-ahead in PA and it sustains for more than week, I will continue to believe that he will be hammered in PA.
What happened to your lips?
He did win Texas. It just takes a while for the entire thing to finish up. Heh, see my thread about the Democratic County Caucus.
The following has been consistant in EVERY state that has held primaries:
The more Obama campaigns in the state, no matter how much Clinton does at the same time, the better he does.
Seeing the guy changes minds and helps the undecided settle on him.
Clinton did well in the early states because she had the aire of inevitability, and some good organization.
Ever since then, she has been out-organized at every level, and has steadily lost ground.
(shrugs)
I will believe she has a chance when places that bet or put money on these things say differently.
intrade.com currently gives Obama an 83% chance of securing the nomination.
If anybody thinks otherwise, put your money where your mouth is, and make some cash.
Intrade gives clinton currently a 71% chance of winning.
Obama's chances did go up about 2% according to the tracking done by intrade.
The reason almost nobody, including Hillary's staff, thinks she can win is simple math.
She has to win all remaining states something like average of 60-40. Already very improbable eg, winning PA 52 - 48 ain't gonna get it done.
Plus she won't win all 10 states, so the 60-40 is really nearer 70-30 in the states she could win. Ain't gonna happen. Billary are fncked. And Bill is sinking his own rep/political capital like an intern sinks to her knees.
Hillary's argument that because Obama hasn't performed well in somg big states in the primaries, he can't beat McCain in the GE doesn't hold up. There is very little correlation between primary / GE performance by state, some it's even negative, winning the primary but losing the state's GE, or losing the primary but winning the GE.
That is the other thing that the Hillary camp misses.
The states she won would go to the Democratic nominee regardless of who that nominee is.
The states he won are most of the states that you ultimately need to swing your direction.
There isn't nearly enough volume in Intrade to use it as a good barometer IMO. You should see some of the swings on there. Its a great tool to make some money if you know what you're doing but as a prediction market I think it fails miserably. (at least in politics)
I agree with most of you say though, RG.
Heh, I haven't been playing with it too much.
I don't put much stock in it if the overall volume is low though, and neither should anybody else.
That said, the overall volume for the major races is actually fairly high, so I put a moderate amount of stock in that.
It is a fun toy to play with though. If Congress hadn't essentially limited it to people outside of the US, it would be more interesting.
Hillary is done if she loses PA. I would support forcing her out.. but in the meantime I STILL support her..
She's done either way. I don't care if she drops out anymore, she's slowly fading into the background. No matter what happens in PA I think everyone out there is starting to hear what we've been saying for a month now. No matter what she does, she's already lost.
Probably one of the few on this board.
You and that peewee character . . .
Her campaign has 9M in liabilities and 20M in assets (she hasn't been paying her bills)
Obama's has 0.6M in liabilities and 40M in assets.
People are voting with their pocketbooks and she is almost broke. Obama will out spend her in Pennsylvania many times over.
The media is reporting hes still behind by 8 points but thats half of what it was a few weeks ago.
And the media has been telling the masses that she has no chance and that she should drop out.. of course most of those who making these claims are obama supporters... just a coincedence I guess..
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