Spurs-Hornets Pre-Game Discussion

[Deuces88]

Okay, let's analyze this situation: game 7. Win or go home. Now, I don't like hearing analysts say stupid stuff like the Spurs will lose because they can't win at Hornets home or they will lose because they lost their last game 7 or they will lose because the majority of game 7s are won by the home team. The statistics do not determine the outcome. However, I want to list why I think Spurs at a game 7 right now.

-The obvious: Hornets are a decent team. They aren't that great because they run through one person. When I mean run through, I mean if Chris Paul doesn't play, the Hornets will almost always lose (against any team, not just Spurs). If Duncan doesn't play, Spurs have a chance at winning.

-The games in which the Spurs lost (1, 2, and 5) were not must-win for the Spurs. Games 1 and 2, I'm sure the Spurs play with the mentality of "Meh, we just want a split" and just didn't play hard those games. Game 5, their mentality was similar because Spurs had just tied the series and some of the heat let up.
When it came down to game 3 and 4, they were must win. They didn't want to end up 0-3 in any situation and they didn't want to head to game 5 in N.O. down 1-3. They were must wins and the Spurs treated those 3 games like a game 7. When game 6 rolled around, it was also a must-win for obvious reasons. It's merely just a coincidence that those games that weren't really "must-win" were in the Hornets home.

-Now let's analyze the losing games for the Spurs.
GAME 1:
Spurs win 1st quarter 27-23
Spurs-Hornets tie 2nd quarter 22-22
*****Spurs win half 49-45 (4 points; not significant)
Spurs lost third quarter 17-29 (-12)
Spurs lost fourth quarter 16-27
*****Spurs lose half 33-56 (23 points; significant)

GAME 2:
Spurs win 1st quarter 23-22
Spurs-Hornets tie 2nd quarter 20-20
*****Spurs win half 43-42 (1 point; not significant)
Spurs lose third quarter 18-36 (-18)
Spurs lose fourth quarter 23-24
*****Spurs lose half 41-60 (19 points; significant)

GAME 5:
Spurs win 1st quarter 23-21
Spurs win 2nd quarter 24-23
*****Spurs win half 47-44 (3 points; not significant)
Spurs lose 3rd quarter 11-28 (-17)
Spurs lose 4th quarter 21-29
*****Spurs lose half 32-57 (25 points; significant)

Now, in each of these games, Spurs win 1st quarter and either tie or win the 2nd quarter so they always lead at halftime. The 3rd quarter is where things fall apart. They always lose the 4th quarter but that's because they are so behind from the 3rd. Popovich usually benches the big 3 for most of post-blowout phase of the game. The 4th quarter in game 2 and 5 are close because they try to make a run at coming back unlike in game 1. Game 1, Pop could see the loss and didn't see a need to tire his players because they could afford to lose game 1.

What I am saying is basically the 3rd quarter is where we need to focus. Losing the 3rd quarter by 12, then 18, then 17. Two conclusions are possible:

-Byron Scott told his team to bring their best game to win the 3rd quarter by a large margin. However, by the results, it would suggest that Byron Scott also told them to not play as hard in the other quarters. I don't see a coach saying "Hey guys, play your best in the 3rd quarter and just play marginally in the other 3 quarters."

-Spurs slipped up because they were coming out of halftime and their defense wasn't solid. I would take this point as being more plausible. For the first half of the 3rd, the Spurs slipped up on defense and were playing catch-up the rest of the quarter.

Let me explain about "runs." When a team goes on a run, it's not that they suddenly get this big burst of offensive talent for a few minutes. It's that the other team slips up for a few minutes allowing too many scores and allowing themselves to go out of rhythm. You also notice than when a team goes on a run, the opposite team's shot selection starts to become bad, they commit petty fouls, and/or make petty unforced turnovers. Runs are fueled by one team playing out of rhythm, rather than the other team having a sudden burst of talent.

So, my point is that the reason the Spurs lost game 1, 2 and 5 was no because of the home court. Spurs are experienced. They don't care what court they play on. These are the reasons the Spurs lost:

Overall:
-No focus coming out of halftime
Specifics:
-(a) Not treating said game like a Game 7
-(b) Playing out of rhythm coming out of halftime
-(c) Pop benching his stars early in order to concede

Fixing this is easy. First off, (a) and (c) are negated now. Pop isn't going to concede a game 7 until the clock hits 0:00 at the end of regulation. Also, this IS a game 7 so the Spurs have no choice but to treat it as so. Point (b) goes hand-in-hand with point (a). Treating this like a game 7 gives them the focus to play hard coming out of halftime. As you can see, the games they treated as game 7s (which coincidentally were home games and must-wins) looked like this:

GAME 3:
Spurs lose 1st quarter 21-23
Spurs-Hornets tie 2nd quarter 33-33
*****Spurs lose half 54-56 (2 points; not significant)
Spurs win 3rd quarter 29-22 (+7)
Spurs win 4th quarter 27-21
*****Spurs win half 56-43 (13 points; significant)

GAME 4:
Spurs win 1st quarter 24-22
Spurs win 2nd quarter 31-20
*****Spurs win half 55-42 (13 points; significant)
Spurs win 3rd quarter 30-19 (+11)
Spurs lose fourth quarter 15-19
*****Spurs win half 45-38 (7 points; somewhat significant)

GAME 6:
Spurs win 1st quarter 36-24
Spurs lose 2nd quarter 22-27
*****Spurs win half 58-51 (7 points; somewhat significant)
Spurs win 3rd quarter 20-12 (+8)
Spurs win 3rd quarter 21-17
*****Spurs win half 41-29 (12 points; significant)

Spurs treat game 7 like game 7. Spurs focus will be there coming out of halftime because of this. Also, because it's a game 7, Pop won't concede. This adds up to Spurs winning game 7.

[Deuces88]

I guess I forgot to say "Book it!"

[Ocotillo]

Game 7s are like the saying goes, anything can happen.

[Alamo Boy]

we must take the crowd OUT of the game

[SPURS50]

Ocotillo is right anything can happen. But we have to play well early to try to take the crowd out of the game a little! Hit some open shots cause there gonna body duncan hard tonight! GO SPURS GO!!!

[Deuces88]

Bring on the Lakers