Gustav

[Das Texan]

You're in NO? GTFO!!

And the Repubs are suppose to postpone the convention because of Gustav.



no. but i'm in a wedding tomorrow night. i want to be able to witness what i can on tv.

[Buddy Holly]

And the Repubs are suppose to postpone the convention because of Gustav.

They're not going to postpone the convention.

[GuerillaBlack]

They said they might do that.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/gop-could-delay-convention-if/story.aspx?guid={2BA4C91A-EDF7-4581-BA0F-17F926B4AE0A}&dist=msr_5

[Buddy Holly]

They said they might do that.

They're going to postpone the convention and reschedule this for when? Next spring?

[GuerillaBlack]

Click the link above.

[GuerillaBlack]

And another: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0808/13007.html

[MannyIsGod]

They're not going to reschedule.

[Buddy Holly]

They're not going to.

[GuerillaBlack]

I was just saying, they might. A small, but unlikely chance.

[Buddy Holly]

So why'd you CnP Cry's post?

[GuerillaBlack]

nevermind.

[Cry Havoc]

Cry, did you lease out your post to GuerillaBlack?

Dude copied you almost word for word and offered it up as his own. :wow

http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showpost.php?p=24706670&postcount=83



Didn't mean to call you out like that but come on. :bang

That's messed up.

Are you on that forum? Call him out on it.

[GuerillaBlack]

Anyway, new official track of Gustav is out:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT07/refresh/AL0708W5+gif/143912W_sm.gif

And CNN just reported that the Repub Convention may be cut short.

[Buddy Holly]

That's messed up.

Are you on that forum? Call him out on it.



I am not now but will sign up because that deserves being called out on. lol

[GuerillaBlack]

i hope you get a gold star.

i already acknowledged that what i did was wrong (even rephrasing it). move on.

mayor nagin on CNN right now giving the honest truth about Gustav. his voice almost sounds like he's been crying (or just stress).

[AlamoSpursFan]

Mayor School Bus knows he has a real Governor to kick him in the ass if he fucks this up again.

:lol

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

Mayor School Bus knows he has a real Governor to kick him in the ass if he fucks this up again.

:lol

Jindal told people to get out on Wednesday, that they needed to start then so everyone could get out in time.

Nagle just finally joined the party.

By the way, agree with the sentiment (unfortunate at that). This will be the worst natural disaster in the history of the U.S.

[GuerillaBlack]

Jindal told people to get out on Wednesday, that they needed to start then so everyone could get out in time.

Nagle just finally joined the party.

By the way, agree with the sentiment (unfortunate at that). This will be the worst natural disaster in the history of the U.S.

We'll see.

It sure does look like it, but the death toll will definitely be a hell of a lot lower. Louisiana and New Orleans are actually getting people out of the city, and not bunched together at the Superdome, etc.

[Buddy Holly]

What forum are you rewording other people's posts from?

[RashoFan]

Jindal may have the same philosophy that my HS band director had..
"To be early is to be ontime, to be on time...you're late"

[GuerillaBlack]

What forum are you rewording other people's posts from?

lol.

post your real identity at ssc and stop pretending to have just joined.


Jindal may have the same philosophy that my HS band director had..
"To be early is to be ontime, to be on time...you're late"

the news hype machine has begun. check cnn.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

:wow If this happens, goodbye New Orleans.

http://img222.imageshack.us/img222/3681/082808eurobq7.gif

[Buddy Holly]

lol.

post your real identity at ssc and stop pretending to have just joined.

I did. I've never posted their once before tonight.

But nice try at deflecting your CnP job.

[GuerillaBlack]

I'm confused. What's the first one that hits Louisiana?

and buddy holly, no. you are already a member there and visit under "papa spaz" or something like that. and i'm not deflected the cnp dumbass thing I did. i already acknowledged that what i did was wrong, but you feel the need to call me out. doesn't matter to me. i could care less, but whatever makes you happy.

[Buddy Holly]

:wow If this happens, goodbye New Orleans.

http://img222.imageshack.us/img222/3681/082808eurobq7.gif

Wait, what the fuck is that? Two massive hurricanes hitting the same area??

Hanna?

[AlamoSpursFan]

What forum are you rewording other people's posts from?

I'm guessing it has nothing to do with the Backstreet Boys.

:lol

[Buddy Holly]

I'm guessing it has nothing to do with the Backstreet Boys.

:lol

Or Nsync.

[AlamoSpursFan]

Or Nsync.

Oops. Wrong gay boy band. My bad.

:lol

[Buddy Holly]

Oops. Wrong gay boy band. My bad.

:lol

No biggie. :toast

[RashoFan]

New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin ordered a mandatory evacuation of the city beginning at 8 a.m. Sunday but urged residents to flee now. "You need to be scared," Nagin said as Hurricane Gustav roared into the Gulf of Mexico with 150 mph sustanied winds. "And you need to get your butts moving out of New Orleans right now."
http://www.cnn.com/

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

I'm confused. What's the first one that hits Louisiana?



First storm coming into NO is Gustav.

Storm #2 is Hanna.

[Buddy Holly]

Is that a serious projection??? :wow:wow:wow:wow

[GuerillaBlack]

First storm coming into NO is Gustav.

Storm #2 is Hanna.

the fuck?

wow.

[Buddy Holly]

First storm coming into NO is Gustav.

Storm #2 is Hanna.

Why is Hanna that damn big?

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

Is that a serious projection??? :wow:wow:wow:wow

It's one of the model runs.

There seems to be some debate on Hanna. Some think it will turn north, thrash the Bahamas. Others think it will continue west and split the gap between Cuba and the Keys and then who knows what happens.

But like I said, game over if true.

[AlamoSpursFan]

I still can't help but laugh just a little, because a former boss of mine at an office supplies wholesale warehouse I used to work at used to brag about the fact that New Orleans (home of the regional office where he worked) was below sea-level and would be taken out with one hurricane.

I tried finding his number after Katrina to call and laugh at his dumb ass, but no such luck.

Dear Gustav,

If Mark Tarto is still alive and kicking, please drown that sorry fuck!

Sincerely,
Me

:lmao

[GuerillaBlack]

It's one of the model runs.

There seems to be some debate on Hanna. Some think it will turn north, thrash the Bahamas. Others think it will continue west and split the gap between Cuba and the Keys and then who knows what happens.

But like I said, game over if true.

it seems like hanna is just lingering around and waiting for Gustav to go through NO before going into the gulf. the gulf can only handle one major hurricane.

[slowchild25]

:wow If this happens, goodbye New Orleans.

http://img222.imageshack.us/img222/3681/082808eurobq7.gif

http://www.saintsreport.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1317483&postcount=1223


good news is that was the Aug 28th run of the Euro model. Its not the same today.

[GuerillaBlack]

nice takedown buddy holly. nice takedown.

sustained winds have dropped down to 140 MPH, but it'll explode over night like Katrina, and especially Rita did.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

I don't know if it's good or not. I just found the ECMWF model run (not the same image as above), their new model has Hanna hitting Miami head on, and another storm out in the Atlantic turning into a hurricane and hitting Miami head on three days later. We could have two major American cities fucked up in a week.


http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/animate/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!72!North%20 America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2005101800!!!step/

[GuerillaBlack]

the 2005 season is starting to look like chump change compared to this thing.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

Very dangerous hurricane heading for the LA coast.

Preparations to protect life and property need to be rushed to completion in the Hurricane Watch area.

Persons in coastal surge zones need to evacuate immediately...if told to leave without question...it will save your life.

Failure and overtopping of SE LA Hurricane Protection System is likely...based on the latest forecast track and SLOSH runs on Gustav...New Orleans area surge may be higher than Katrina values given this storm track...will need to review on Sunday...but the situation looks extremely bad for all of SE LA.

Mandatory evacuations of coastal Louisiana is in progress...contra flow will begin across LA early Sunday morning.

Storm Surge Impacts:

Devastating storm surge of 20-25 feet is possible along and E of the center track of Gustav. This surge will run-up the eastern side of Vermillion Bay and into and W of the MS Delta. SLOSH runs show surge values of 16-22 feet along the southern portion of New Orleans and surge values of 13-16 feet into Lake Pontchartrain. Storm surge of this magnitude will overtop levees in SC LA from Houma to Morgan City and NW. Southern facing New Orleans levee protection may fail or be overtopped.

Storm surge of 5-12 feet will be possible along the SW MS coast in Hancock and Harrison counties...surge in this area can be very extensive due to its coastal topography shape.

[Ginofan]

It's one of the model runs.

There seems to be some debate on Hanna. Some think it will turn north, thrash the Bahamas. Others think it will continue west and split the gap between Cuba and the Keys and then who knows what happens.

But like I said, game over if true.

There's supposed to be a ridge of high pressure that supposedly would move Hannah westward...I think we are going to be waiting 3 -5 days to see how that pans out exactly.

[Cry Havoc]

the 2005 season is starting to look like chump change compared to this thing.

I wouldn't go that far. We had Dennis, Katrina, Rita, Wilma, and Tammy that year. All did quite a bit of damage, obviously.

[baseline bum]

It's one of the model runs.

There seems to be some debate on Hanna. Some think it will turn north, thrash the Bahamas. Others think it will continue west and split the gap between Cuba and the Keys and then who knows what happens.

But like I said, game over if true.

Game over if Gustav follows current projections. What more could Hanna do? Destroy the rubble?

[GuerillaBlack]

I wouldn't go that far. We had Dennis, Katrina, Rita, Wilma, and Tammy that year. All did quite a bit of damage, obviously.

true, but we'll see though.

so far, we've had fay dolly and fay. Gustov is looking worst than Katrina, and Hanna may follow in his footsteps.

now that i think about it though, the prediction is way too early. the 2005 season had storms like Hurricane Stan, that though didn't hit the US, did a shitload of damage in the Caribbean and had more deaths than Katrina.

[Das Texan]

the 2005 season is starting to look like chump change compared to this thing.


well according to some on this board....


this is a down year.


:hat

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

Game over if Gustav follows current projections. What more could Hanna do? Destroy the rubble?

Hmm, well I guess you could go down the road of not everyone evacuating, like last time, the city floods, people are stuck on their roofs, and then Hanna brings another 15-20 feet of storm surge to the situation...

[MannyIsGod]

Hanna isn't looking too good. I think Gustav may actually be having an effect on it but I really haven't followed it all yet. That model run is 2 days old though. Gustav will also cool waters in the Gulf down quite a bit which is a good thing.

Also, 2005 is by far the worst hurricane season this country has ever known. This season is no where near that level and more than likely will not be.

[MannyIsGod]

Gustav is a big bad storm, but its still not as big as Katrina. Katrina was larger in area, had lower pressure, and faster winds. Gustav has a ways to go before it gets there.

[MannyIsGod]

btw everyone here with a car better hope and pray the LOOP (Louisiana offshore oil port) makes it through this OK. A couple of experts online are talking about it being out of commission for months.

[MannyIsGod]

The current tracks, both official and objective, are showing serious damage to the LOOP terminal as well as Southwest Pass. About a dozen refineries, including the big Baton Rouge Refinery (~500,000BPD), are showing at least week-long shutdowns and various levels of damage. Long term power and pipeline disruption is forecast in the target area, with extended rain (due to the storm stalling inland) making repairs difficult. It's not a good forecast - in some ways, worse than Katrina. However, one thing folks should keep in mind: right now the major track models are abnormally closely clustered in space if not in time. That (obviously!) means that they are either all right or all wrong. I've done this long enough to suspect the former . . .

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/4468#more


LOL I own a bike bitches. By this point next week you all will wish you did too.

[Buddy Holly]

I have a hover board that runs on water. I'm not sweatin' sheet.

[CubanMustGo]

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/4468#more


LOL I own a bike bitches. By this point next week you all will wish you did too.

I can work from home. By this point next week with it raining and shit you will all wish you could too. :downspin:

[MannyIsGod]

I can work from home. By this point next week with it raining and shit you will all wish you could too. :downspin:

Well I have a car for the rainy days. I also work from home though! Its school that fucks me.

[CubanMustGo]

j/k Manny. Thanks for the wx updates - scary shit.

[RashoFan]

Let me know if y'all can't read this article.
http://www.jems.com/news_and_articles/news/new_orleans_braces_for_gustav.html
Obviously it was posted earlier this week, but it does shed some light on what is planned so far...

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

We could really get fucked at the pump... it could tear up the LOOP and Louisiana refining and then get pushed back out into the Gulf, then come up the Houston shipping channel.

Kinda like this model (guessing on that last part)...

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/hwrf/12zhwrf500mbHGHTPMSLnest2hwrfLoop.html

:wow

Four storms lining up in the Atlantic:

http://www.globalboiling.org/#Gulfloop

[Tonto]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/wp-content/uploads/2008/08/080826_gustav_vis_anim.gif

[scott]

Manny/AHF/All others:

I've been to LOOP a couple of times, the most recent was a few months after Katrina. The topic of hurricane readiness came up at that meeting, and I'll say that I am very confident that Gustav, or any other major hurricanes, will not do major damage to it. They can have power to the pipelines back within a couple of days.

The more serious problem, in regards to LOOP, is their storage caverns onshore in Houma, LA. To get crude oil out, they use brine, and the pit is exposed to the elements. Large scale damage to the brine pit (Houma is basically just a swamp and while I don't know the area that well, I'd imagine that the storm surge in that area would put the pit underwater) could make those caverns inoperable for awhile. However, new shipments will be able to come in.

The industry is significantly better prepared this time around the 2005, so I don't think we'll see the kind of situation we had back then (for one, we don't have the tightness in the product markets we had then to start with). I have seen quit a lot of bullish oil statements in various publications, but they seem to be for the purposes of aiding the author's own bullish positions rather than reality.

[Tonto]

http://s125.photobucket.com/albums/p55/RackTheMouse/th_goose.gif

[PhotoShop]

http://i125.photobucket.com/albums/p55/RackTheMouse/Manny.gif

[Heath Ledger]

Man look at all of the weather experts coming out of the fucking cracks.

[Cry Havoc]

Gustav's eye is looking more ragged by the minute. Either he's undergoing an ERC, or he just isn't able to gather strength with that high coasting off to his right.

It's a good example of just how many conditions have to be right for a hurricane to truly explode.

Strengthening is still not out of the question, but he's going to have to get his act together quickly if he wants to reach cat 5.

Still should make landfall as a cat3 or cat4. Still completely dangerous. But thankfully he might not be the "worst-case" scenario.

[Cry Havoc]

Eye now visible on the satellite. Gustav is starting to power up again.

[GuerillaBlack]

Gustav's eye is looking more ragged by the minute. Either he's undergoing an ERC, or he just isn't able to gather strength with that high coasting off to his right.

It's a good example of just how many conditions have to be right for a hurricane to truly explode.

Strengthening is still not out of the question, but he's going to have to get his act together quickly if he wants to reach cat 5.

Still should make landfall as a cat3 or cat4. Still completely dangerous. But thankfully he might not be the "worst-case" scenario.


Eye now visible on the satellite. Gustav is starting to power up again.

Yeah, Cuba hurt Gustav a little bit, but it is now going through a strengthening process. I suspect that when I get back home around 2 PM today, this thing will have ballooned into a Cat 4 or even 5 storm. It's possible. Rita did it in just a few hours.

[Cry Havoc]

Yeah, Cuba hurt Gustav a little bit, but it is now going through a strengthening process. I suspect that when I get back home around 2 PM today, this thing will have ballooned into a Cat 4 or even 5 storm. It's possible. Rita did it in just a few hours.

Possible, but not probable. Gustav will likely not reach Cat5 status. There is dry air to his west and high pressure to his East, both of which are impeding him from really expanding his outflow jets.

Still, he's going to be strengthening or maintaining strength as he comes ashore... still a very bad situation. I think he hits as a Cat 3 right on the border of a 4, just west of NOLA.

[GuerillaBlack]

I see.

Looks like Hanna will probably go to the east coast now as a Cat 1 or 2. That thing is still pretty unpredictable. We have to wait for Gustav to leave the Gulf (it can't handle two hurricanes at once).

[Cry Havoc]

The latest storm model shows that Gustav is heading RIGHT for NOLA.

Heading due NW. And it's ramping up QUICKLY.

[Tonto]

FIXED

http://i125.photobucket.com/albums/p55/RackTheMouse/mouse-cain.gif

[Cry Havoc]

Wow, this storm is frustrating. The eye looks perfect one minute, then ragged the next. Showing signs of strengthening, but we will see.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/atir/8.jpg

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

Water temps... Katrina vs. today.

http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/images/current/key_sst_50kmcurrent.gif

http://www.globalboiling.org/whenkatrinahit.gif

[RashoFan]

I was expecting Gustav to be a high Cat4 when I got up. He is a Cat 3 right now??? What interesting info you guys are posting about sheer, GOM Loop current and loop eddy. Thanks for posting, maybe one day i can understand everything y'all are talking about.
The one thing I do understand is NOLA is going to get f'ed up!

[Brutalis]

Man. This is going to get ugly..

[Cry Havoc]

Water temps... Katrina vs. today.

Aggie, a NOAA weather buoy just reported wave heights near the core of Gustav at 35 feet.

If that's the case, there is no telling how horrible this impact good be. 35 feet waves are hard to imagine being pushed onshore.

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

http://www.ksat.com/video/17347538/index.html -- Live coverage from WDSU.com in NOLA.

http://www.nola.com/ -- NOLA.com (Times-Pic).

[T Park]

35 foot waves?

Holy smokes....

[baseline bum]

Shit, time to get my board.

[RashoFan]

Cowabunga dude...

[Cry Havoc]

Dry air has penetrated Gustav's central core. He's choking a bit. Chances are that he will now not make landfall above a category 3 storm.

A big relief to those living in NOLA. This is not a doomsday storm.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

Aggie, a NOAA weather buoy just reported wave heights near the core of Gustav at 35 feet.

If that's the case, there is no telling how horrible this impact good be. 35 feet waves are hard to imagine being pushed onshore.

I also read that the estimated time of land fall will be at high tide. Double whammy.

[Cry Havoc]

Gustav begins to strengthen again. It might actually make cat 4.

[T Park]

Looks like the storm is weakening.

Awesome turn of events if true.

[baseline bum]

WTF? This storm can't make up its mind. It's like a completely new forecast every 20 minutes on here.

[Brandon Fraser]

Looks like the storm is weakening.

Awesome turn of events if true.


Tpark give it a fucking rest!

[Brandon Fraser]

WTF? This storm can't make up its mind.


Maybe it should be re-named the KerryCain

[T Park]

WTF? This storm can't make up its mind. It's like a completely new forecast every 20 minutes on here.


:lol

The exact same thing I was thinking.

[SpursWoman]

As of the last NHC discussion, it's still forecast to strengthen into a Cat 4. That hasn't changed. It got a little choked up over Cuba, but it's still got 18 hours over open water until it gets to the coast. FWIW.

[MannyIsGod]

Manny/AHF/All others:

I've been to LOOP a couple of times, the most recent was a few months after Katrina. The topic of hurricane readiness came up at that meeting, and I'll say that I am very confident that Gustav, or any other major hurricanes, will not do major damage to it. They can have power to the pipelines back within a couple of days.

The more serious problem, in regards to LOOP, is their storage caverns onshore in Houma, LA. To get crude oil out, they use brine, and the pit is exposed to the elements. Large scale damage to the brine pit (Houma is basically just a swamp and while I don't know the area that well, I'd imagine that the storm surge in that area would put the pit underwater) could make those caverns inoperable for awhile. However, new shipments will be able to come in.

The industry is significantly better prepared this time around the 2005, so I don't think we'll see the kind of situation we had back then (for one, we don't have the tightness in the product markets we had then to start with). I have seen quit a lot of bullish oil statements in various publications, but they seem to be for the purposes of aiding the author's own bullish positions rather than reality.

Scott,

The stuff that I read was mainly concern over scouring of the pipes leading away from LOOP because of the angle Gustav was going to come in at. Apparently this is a problem that was discovered in 2005 with those hurricanes but has not been fixed in the least.

Whats your opinion on that?

[pickle girl]

Do these storms effect the price of shrimp?



________________________________________________
favorite quotes from the politics forum
http://i125.photobucket.com/albums/p55/RackTheMouse/tpark.jpg

[MannyIsGod]

Gustav's eye is looking more ragged by the minute. Either he's undergoing an ERC, or he just isn't able to gather strength with that high coasting off to his right.

It's a good example of just how many conditions have to be right for a hurricane to truly explode.

Strengthening is still not out of the question, but he's going to have to get his act together quickly if he wants to reach cat 5.

Still should make landfall as a cat3 or cat4. Still completely dangerous. But thankfully he might not be the "worst-case" scenario.

Eyewall replacement cycles require concentric eyewalls. An outer EW forms and eventually deprives the inner eyewall of the lift needed to be sustained. If you don't see concentric eyewalls you can rule an EWRC out.

[Dex]

This must be the new school of weather forecasting. Just predict every possible combination of storms, and one of them is bound to be right.

[GoGatos.]

Do these storms effect the price of shrimp?




I am not sure who would now that here at ST. I do know one thing who needs KSAT when we have MannyWeather! :tu

[MannyIsGod]

This must be the new school of weather forecasting. Just predict every possible combination of storms, and one of them is bound to be right.

The real forcast hasn't changed much at all. Why you guys are all riding on CH's (or any of mine for that matter) posts I do'nnt know.

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

I'm trying to collect links for Gustav information/coverage to put at KSAT.com. If anybody has any good ones, please post them and I'll check back as I add more.

Right now, I've got some links to media around the area (including Miss.), Red Cross, FEMA, NHC and some Twitter links.

[MannyIsGod]

FWIW, I don't think Cuba had all that much to do with this storm. I think more important than sea surface temps are upper air conditions. Yesterday when Gustav expoded you saw a poleward outflow jet that was moving air far into the SE US. Thats pretty damn impressive and it allows the storm to move air much faster. Air moving faster obviously can equal higher winds.

You don't see that today. Whether or not you see that before tihs storm comes ashore us unknown.

CH was wrong in saying this is not a doomsday storm. It may very well get up to the strength of a Cat 4 yet and even a Cat3 at landfall will provide a large amount of storm surge and wind. A major hurricane is no event you should take lightly. Katrina came ashore as a Cat 3 and we saw what its weaker winds were able to do on the superdome etc etc

[GuerillaBlack]

New Orleans: Ghost Town

http://rticams.net/NewOrleans/I10atI610/i610.jpg?

http://rticams.net/NewOrleans/I610atCanalBlvd/canalblvd.jpg?

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

JB -

http://www.globalboiling.org/

Once you get past all the global warming paranoia, they have some great satellite/radar/temp info.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

Guerilla - good to see those shots.

It was bumper to bumper on I10 yesterday on those cams.

[Cry Havoc]

Eyewall replacement cycles require concentric eyewalls. An outer EW forms and eventually deprives the inner eyewall of the lift needed to be sustained. If you don't see concentric eyewalls you can rule an EWRC out.

Well, it's not a "proper" EWRC per say, but it's still a hurricane struggling to replace it's eye, is my point. =P

Gustav strengthening again, but he's not able to wrap his eyewall. I'm not sure he gets back to cat4.

[T Park]

Jindal and all the rest of the officials in LA did a hell of a job getting everything prepared :tu

[MannyIsGod]

Well, it's not a "proper" EWRC per say, but it's still a hurricane struggling to replace it's eye, is my point. =P

Gustav strengthening again, but he's not able to wrap his eyewall. I'm not sure he gets back to cat4.

An eyewall replacement cycle is what it is. There are no proper or improper versions of it.

We'll see what the pressure says on the next recon pass. I'm surprised its this strong with the environment its in. Its not all that favorable at all. Hopefully it can weaken further.

[Brutalis]

Just curious. Why are you guys so pepped up on this? Please refrain from dumb asshole comments.

[GuerillaBlack]

Just curious. Why are you guys so pepped up on this? Please refrain from dumb asshole comments.

Weather fascinates some. Like me. I hope for the best, but it is still interesting watching hurricanes, tornadoes, etc.

[T Park]

The Hurricane is now officially a 3, winds down to 115.


Keep killin it!!!

[GuerillaBlack]

The Hurricane is now officially a 3, winds down to 115.


Keep killin it!!!

I think this is an old reading. I saw this around 10 AM.

Keep going down though! It getting closer to land so less room for strengthening.

[T Park]

Weather fascinates some. Like me. I hope for the best, but it is still interesting watching hurricanes, tornadoes, etc.

Yeah I hate the damage they do, but watching a hurricane form and all the changes that can happen and it being something you have ZERO control over is fascinating I agree.

Much better than Tornados, Tornados scare the crap out of me due to they are so unpredictable in direction, when they come down, all of that jazz.

[T Park]

I think this is an old reading. I saw this around 10 AM.

Keep going down though! It getting closer to land so less room for strengthening.



Actually watching Fox News and thats the "latest" reading supposedly.

[spursfan09]

Weather fascinates some. Like me. I hope for the best, but it is still interesting watching hurricanes, tornadoes, etc.

same here. It's like mother nature is going to do what she wants to do. It seems like she wants NO to be no more.

[Cry Havoc]

The eye of Gustav appears to be re-emerging, and it seems like it's a big one.

This could mean any number of things, but what it likely means is that Gustav is gaining strength. A larger eye would also likely indicate that he is able to maintain strength over land for a longer period of time.

I think I was a bit hasty in my earlier statement. Gustav could make landfall tomorrow as a category 4 hurricane. Not good.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

The Hurricane is now officially a 3, winds down to 115.


Keep killin it!!!

Hurricane hunter plane is in the storm, should have some new measurements out in an hour or two.

I think it's going to strengthen back to a 4 though, look at the latest vapor image. An eye is starting to get organized.

http://i269.photobucket.com/albums/jj58/starsinwinter08/SAT_GUL_WVENH_ANI5.gif

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

Here's the visible to go with the above.

http://i269.photobucket.com/albums/jj58/starsinwinter08/SAT_GULH_VIS_ANI56.gif

By the way, per the discussion on Accuweather, Gulf weather buoy near the eye logged a 45 foot wave :wow

[Cry Havoc]

Just curious. Why are you guys so pepped up on this? Please refrain from dumb asshole comments.

I'm fascinated by a single weather entity that is hundreds of miles across, can dump billions of gallons of water on a single area, and has winds of up to 190mph sustained which can gust to over 250mph, and just LOOKS like it does, well, I think it's just amazing. Impressive to no end. And incredibly compelling because of the sheer power of a storm. Watching it move through our atmosphere just rivets me.

Think about it. If you had NEVER seen or heard of a hurricane before (let's say you live in a tribe in South America) and suddenly someone tells you what a hurricane is, and shows you a satellite photo that looks like this:

http://www.essc.psu.edu/essc_web/news/images/hurricane.jpg

Well, wouldn't that just kind of blow your mind, too?

[Cry Havoc]

By the way, per the discussion on Accuweather, Gulf weather buoy near the eye logged a 45 foot wave :wow

Have you given in and joined the forums!? :lol

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

Latest pressure readings from the HH are 950 mb. 5 mb drop and it's a cat 4.

[T Park]

Shit, i had hope it was dying.

Cat 4?

Damn, thats worse than Katrina....

[MannyIsGod]

The eye of Gustav appears to be re-emerging, and it seems like it's a big one.

This could mean any number of things, but what it likely means is that Gustav is gaining strength. A larger eye would also likely indicate that he is able to maintain strength over land for a longer period of time.

I think I was a bit hasty in my earlier statement. Gustav could make landfall tomorrow as a category 4 hurricane. Not good.

Its not the eye everyone is seeing. Its dry air on the edge of the CDO. Look at the infrared and compare it to the visible images.

Edit - A few mets just told me I'm wrong CH, so it looks you are right.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

Have you given in and joined the forums!? :lol

Nope. :lol Great source of info. though.


By the way, to add to your comments about how amazing a hurricane is...

Science has pinned the amount of energy in a typical hurricane at greater than the energy that would be released by all the nuclear weapons on earth detonated at once. That's unreal to think about.

[MannyIsGod]

Recon just found lower pressure in the eye....

957 mb - thats down 5mb since the last advisory.

[Dex]

Just curious. Why are you guys so pepped up on this? Please refrain from dumb asshole comments.

Aside from the meteorological, historical, and geographical implications of this storm...

I think part of it still comes down to human tendency.

It's the same reason people slow down when they pass a big wreck. You probably do it, I probably do it, everybody does it. Even if a wreck isn't blocking any lanes, you can expect traffic to build up to take a gander.

I'm sure none of us wish any ill will on these people, but for some morbid reason it's still intriguing. As a species, we seem to be generally interested in our own destruction, even if we don't necessarily support it or enjoy it.

[T Park]

Nope. :lol Great source of info. though.


By the way, to add to your comments about how amazing a hurricane is...

Science has pinned the amount of energy in a typical hurricane at greater than the energy that would be released by all the nuclear weapons on earth detonated at once. That's unreal to think about.


Wow I've never heard that before.

[Ginofan]

Is it me or does anyone else think that Gus is moving pretty fast out there. I know originally they were calling for a Tuesday morning landfall, now it's a Monday morning to late afternoon landfall?

[MannyIsGod]

Aside from the meteorological, historical, and geographical implications of this storm...

I think part of it still comes down to human tendency.

It's the same reason people slow down when they pass a big wreck. You probably do it, I probably do it, everybody does it. Even if a wreck isn't blocking any lanes, you can expect traffic to build up to take a gander.

I'm sure none of us wish any ill will on these people, but for some morbid reason it's still intriguing. As a species, we seem to be generally interested in our own destruction, even if we don't necessarily support it or enjoy it.

I would be far more excited about watching this storm if it was out in the middle of the Atlantic fucking with a bunch of fish. I can't speak for anyone else but I just have a huge fascination with weather in general. Its not just Hurricanes.

[T Park]

Aside from the meteorological, historical, and geographical implications of this storm...

I think part of it still comes down to human tendency.

It's the same reason people slow down when they pass a big wreck. You probably do it, I probably do it, everybody does it. Even if a wreck isn't blocking any lanes, you can expect traffic to build up to take a gander.

I'm sure none of us wish any ill will on these people, but for some morbid reason it's still intriguing. As a species, we seem to be generally interested in our own destruction, even if we don't necessarily support it or enjoy it.


Yeah, or watching continuous coverage of a war in its early stages talking about strategy and whats going on.
Terrorist attack, all the same.

[T Park]

Is it me or does anyone else think that Gus is moving pretty fast out there. I know originally they were calling for a Tuesday morning landfall, now it's a Monday morning to late afternoon landfall?

I could be wrong but I think over Cuba it went from moving 7 miles an hour, to 15 miles an hour.

Someone whos been watching this closely can correct me if I'm wrong.

[Dex]

I would be far more excited about watching this storm if it was out in the middle of the Atlantic fucking with a bunch of fish. I can't speak for anyone else but I just have a huge fascination with weather in general. Its not just Hurricanes.

That's why your Weatherman Manny™. :king

[Cry Havoc]

I could be wrong but I think over Cuba it went from moving 7 miles an hour, to 15 miles an hour.

Someone whos been watching this closely can correct me if I'm wrong.

Two important things happened.

Gustav shifted to the extreme right of the forecasted storm tracks. Since the farther right he goes, the closer to the coast he is, it expedited his approaching landfall.

And yes, he sped up significantly. He's Gustav. He does what he wants. :lol


I would be far more excited about watching this storm if it was out in the middle of the Atlantic fucking with a bunch of fish. I can't speak for anyone else but I just have a huge fascination with weather in general. Its not just Hurricanes.

+1

[sabar]

New Orleans is probably going to be spared a direct hit, quite lucky. Plus Hannah is being shredded up bu Gustav's trail.

[T Park]

New Orleans is probably going to be spared a direct hit, quite lucky. Plus Hannah is being shredded up bu Gustav's trail.

The track I just saw had it slamming smack dab into New Orleans it seemed. Once again, I'm probobly wrong.

[T Park]

Two important things happened.

Gustav shifted to the extreme right of the forecasted storm tracks. Since the farther right he goes, the closer to the coast he is, it expedited his approaching landfall.

And yes, he sped up significantly. He's Gustav. He does what he wants. :lol


+1

:lol

That made me laugh sorry

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

New Orleans is probably going to be spared a direct hit, quite lucky. Plus Hannah is being shredded up bu Gustav's trail.

The worst case for NO isn't a direct hit, it's Gustav making landfall just to the the west of New Orleans and pushing the Gulf of Mexico over the levees. Parts of that city that stayed dry last time will be underwater.

[Buddy Holly]

New Orleans is probably going to be spared a direct hit, quite lucky. Plus Hannah is being shredded up bu Gustav's trail.

A direct hit is right in the middle of best and worst case. Worst case is it hitting just west and that's exactly what it's doing.

[exstatic]

New Orleans is probably going to be spared a direct hit, quite lucky. Plus Hannah is being shredded up bu Gustav's trail.

The direct hit isn't the worst scenario, landfall West of NO is. The worst sides of a hurricane are the North and East sides, and that scenario hits NO with both of those.

[T Park]

You think what Katrina did and all the damage.

That was a Category 3, AND it hit direct.

This one is gonna be a "strong" 4, and hit west.

New Orleans might not even be there after this is over.

[cherylsteele]

Is it just me, or do those latest satellite images show the storm veering to the west a little? Or are my eyes playing tricks on me? Or am I just misinterpreting the image wrong (which is most likely)?

[spursfan09]

New Orleans might not even be there after this is over.

:depressed

[RashoFan]

:cry I knew I should have gone to NOLA this past Mardi Gras. God, it is horrible thinking of all possible outcomes...city may be gone in a day's time. Thank goodness most people did evacuate.

[boutons_]

"still comes down to human tendency"

yep

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2pe4XVVUbiA

[RashoFan]

Someone with the program dept of Encore movie station(ch 300 here in SA) has horrible sense of irony. The movie Deja Vu is on and the movie is set in NOLA

[CubanMustGo]

4PM advisory is out. It is forecast to go slightly further west, may go far enough south of NOLA to lessen the storm surge impact. Still 115mph, top gusts now 'only' 140 (v 150 earlier).


NWS: at 4 PM CDT...2100 UTC...the Hurricane Warning is extended westward along the Louisiana and Texas coasts to just east of High Island Texas . A Hurricane Warning is now in effect from just east of High Island eastward to the Alabama-Florida border...including the city of New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain.

Two storm models now take it into central TX a couple of days after landfall.

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200807.gif

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200807_model.gif

[GuerillaBlack]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/08/31/gop-cancels-convention-op_n_122808.html

GOP Cancels Convention Opening Night
DAVID ESPO | August 31, 2008 04:42 PM EST |

ST. PAUL, Minn. — John McCain tore up the script for his Republican National Convention on Sunday, ordering the cancellation of all but essential opening-day activities as Hurricane Gustav churned toward New Orleans.

"This is a time when we have to do away with our party politics and we have to act as Americans," he said as fellow Republicans converged on their convention city to nominate him for the White House.

President Bush and Vice President Cheney scrapped plans to address the convention on Monday, and McCain's campaign chartered a jet to fly delegates back to their hurricane-threatened states along the Gulf Coast. Campaign manager Rick Davis said the first-night program was being cut from seven hours to two and one half.

The hasty reordering of an event months in the making underscored not only the risk posed by Gustav, but also an intense desire by McCain and Republicans to avoid the political damage that Bush suffered from his widely criticized response to Hurricane Katrina three years ago.

The formal business of the convention includes nominating McCain for president and Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his vice presidential running mate on Wednesday. McCain's acceptance speech, set for prime time on Thursday evening, is among the most critical events of the campaign for his chances of winning the White House.

McCain said he was looking forward to attending the convention but did not say when he would arrive. He spoke via satellite from St. Louis after he and Palin received a briefing on hurricane preparations in Jackson, Miss.

Campaign manager Davis told reporters inside the convention hall that the opening program on Monday would be "business only and will refrain from political rhetoric."

To help those in need, he said, "We are working with the delegations, financial people, finance committees, many other concerned individuals to do what we can to raise money for various charities that operate in the Gulf Coast region."

As for the convention schedule, he added that further adjustments would be made on a day-to-day basis.

McCain said of his briefing in Mississippi: "I'm happy to report to you that the coordination and the work that's being done at all levels appears to be excellent." He cited remaining challenges in communications and search and rescue operations, but emphasized that the response seemed to be going more smoothly than the one three years ago.

"I have every expectation that we will not see the mistakes of Katrina repeated," he said.

The Bush administration's handling of that storm contributed to a plunge in the president's approval ratings that helped the Democrats win control of Congress in 2006.

The uncertainty contrasted with a state of readiness inside the Xcel Center, a hockey arena transformed into a made-for-televison red-carpeted convention hall. Thousands of red, white and blue balloons nestled in netting high above the floor _ to be released during final-night festivities if the Republicans decide to go ahead with them.

Outside, police took nine people into custody for crossing a security barrier in an anti-war march. The nine, including two women in their 70s, were charged with trespassing, according to Doug Holtz, a St. Paul police commander.

Emphasizing their concern about the hurricane, McCain and his newly named running mate traveled to Mississippi for a tour of the state's emergency management center.

"I pledge that tomorrow night, and if necessary throughout our convention, we will act as Americans, not as Republicans," McCain told reporters moments later.

The events temporarily overshadowed a more traditionally political pre-convention debate over McCain's decision to name Palin to his ticket. She was mayor of small-town Wasilla, Alaska, for six years before she became governor in DecemDber 2006.

Responding to a question after his hurricane-related remarks, McCain made a ringing defense of Palin, who Democrats argue has less experience than their presidential candidate, Barack Obama.

"I thin Sen. Obama, if they want to do down that route, in all candor, she has far, far more experience than Sen. Obama does," McCain said.

He cited Palin's stint as governor of a "state that produces 20 percent of America's energy" as well as her previous membership in the PTA and her time spent on the city council and in the mayor's office in Wasilla,a town of fewer than 7,000 people outside Anchorage.

By contrast, he said Obama "was a community organizer when she was in elected office. He was in the state Senate and voted 130 times present. He never took on his party on anything. She took on a party and the old bulls and the old boy network and she succeeded."

Palin has frequently clashed with fellow Republicans in her state, and won office after denying an incumbent GOP governor renomination to a new term in office.

But Democratic Sen. Chris Dodd of Connecticut said McCain's selection was merely designed to appease the hard-right conservatives in the Republican Party. "His knees buckled" when it came time to picking a running mate, Dodd said of McCain in an appearance on CNN.

McCain conferred by phone with Govs. Bobby Jindal of Louisiana, Bob Riley of Alabama and Charlie Crist of Florida during the day.

Crist, with a prominent speaking role at the convention, said he was staying in his home state to tend to hurricane business, and the others were staying home as well.

Democrats, too, decided to tone down their convention-week efforts.

Party spokesman Brad Woodhouse said the Democrats had canceled a "More of the Same" rally that had been slated for Monday.

Obama said he was ready to encourage his supporters to assist any victims of the hurricane.

"I think we can activate an e-mail list of a couple of million people who want to give back," he said.

Roger Villere Jr., Louisiana Republican Party chairman, said the chartered jet would fly delegates back to their home states and also fly back to Minnesota with family members who want to evacuate the Gulf Coast area.

"We got a large plane because we needed it. We'll take any delegate that would like to go back," Villere said.

"The McCain campaign has assured me this is the first priority," he said referring to the hurricane.

With millions of Gulf Coast residents fleeing the approaching storm, Chadwick Melder, a delegate from Baton Rouge, said he was taking advantage of an offer from the campaign to fly his family out of harm's way.

"I'm trying to get my family out of there and stay here for the week," said Melder, although he added, "I have responsibilities here as well."

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

The eye is trying to materialize..

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=13430

[GuerillaBlack]

Damn, so it strengthens right before hitting land.

[GuerillaBlack]

It looks like we'll have TS Ike pretty soon. It's well organized:

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200897_model.gif

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200897_sat.jpg

[RashoFan]

Watching NBC Nightly News and one woman stated"This is my home, This is my life." "They made me leave NO for Katrina, but I'm staying here."

I hope that despite her stubborness, that woman and everyone too stubborn to leave will survive this storm.

One lady is upset that her mother refused to leave NO, she and her daughter boarded a bus to get out of town.

[Whisky Dog]

With the fast speed of the storm they are now forcasting the storm surge to be only approx. 10 to 16 ft. This will definitely be a different kind of destruction than Katrina. The fast movement should keep the storm from just power dumping water like Katrina, but the freaky high winds could just tear everything up.

Should get some rain here in Dallas by Thursday or Friday from this storm if it goes on the same path.

[Whisky Dog]

Watching NBC Nightly News and one woman stated"This is my home, This is my life." "They made me leave NO for Katrina, but I'm staying here."

I hope that despite her stubborness, that woman and everyone too stubborn to leave will survive this storm.

One lady is upset that her mother refused to leave NO, she and her daughter boarded a bus to get out of town.

I wonder if she'll have the same thought as she's being pulled under water and can't breath anymore?

[MannyIsGod]

Would make for some wet weather late in the week here if that GFDL run verifies. We'll see.

Pressure is dropping which is problematic. If this storm manages to get its act together tonight it could strengthen a lot. Luckily theres not much time before it comes ashore. I hope it somehow weakens.

[MannyIsGod]

I wonder if she'll have the same thought as she's being pulled under water and can't breath anymore?

Believe it or not I think some people would rather die than leave. Its just a different thought process I guess.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

Latest recon has the pressure at 952.6 and falling.

Flight level winds at 131 mph (gusts over 140), which puts it at Cat4.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

From accuweather thread, FWIW:


Ship 115 NE of the eye is reporting 78mph winds and 11m (call that 33 ft) waves. Probably a US Naval vessel, nobody else in their right mind would be running around in that sort of conditions. They'll be fine though. Ought to heading to port nevertheless. Maybe they're trying to outrun the storm, or maybe they're just daft.

[MannyIsGod]

Storms that have been on the south and west of the center all day are starting to wrap around to the north eastern sides of the center and are starting to form a classic eye. This combined with the pressure drops noted this afternoon and wind speed increases noted by recon in the storm right now all indicate that Gustav is getting stronger.

The chances of seeing a CAT 4 at landfall are currently rising.

As if that was worrisome enough, the convection moving from the SW to the NE quadrants could cause the storm to wobble to the north. Think about suddenly moving a lot of weight from your left side to your right - you would probably stumble to the right - those are the simple physics of the situation. Its impossible to know if this will occur or how much this will affect the storms path but I'm sure that everyone at this point realizes just how much a simple wobble at the wrong time could mean a virtual direct hit on NOLA.

None of this is certain, but really there is absolutely nothing in regards to this storm right now that should make anyone feel comfortable about NOLA being spared. It may, it may not, but right now the chances for that happening are not increasing.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

Damn. Forecasted storm surge:

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at200807_surge.gif

Yes, that's 18' of surge in the New Orleans area.

[MannyIsGod]

Latest recon has the pressure at 952.6 and falling.

Flight level winds at 131 mph (gusts over 140), which puts it at Cat4.

Flight level needs to be adjusted lower for surface winds. Its about 120 or so on the surface which is still a high end 3.

[Big Worm]

Why you guys are all riding on CH's (or any of mine for that matter) posts I do'nnt know.

It's Sunday and there ain't shit to do.........

.pat-na!

[MannyIsGod]

http://www.gscape.com/images/wx/gustavrecon310808_04.jpg

That shows you how the storm has already started to jog to the north. Fucking great.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

951 mb is the latest from the Hurricane Hunters.

Cool image of the day (the Hurricane Hunter track of winds on their flight)

http://forums.accuweather.com/uploads/post-11989-1220221822.jpg

[MannyIsGod]

AHF if you have google earth you can get that directly. Go to tropicalatlantic.com. Its really awesome.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

Thanks for the heads up, was wondering how they were getting that on GEarth.

[MannyIsGod]

Yeah its really nice. You can track multiple flights up there - they should have 2 planes ujp all times frmo this point on.

New pressure found - 949.00

The rate of pressure falls is really really really bad news. Tehre is also now a 10 degree tempature difference between the eyewall and eye which indicates a rapid strengthening cycle as well.

This storm is flat out getting stronger.

[Trainwreck2100]

I wonder if she'll have the same thought as she's being pulled under water and can't breath anymore?

If one can survive the storm, think of all the free shit they could get

[T Park]

If one can survive the storm, think of all the free shit they could get

haha

I don't think the looters are gonna fly with free reign again like they did a few years ago.

Theres like 1800 National Guard Troops on the ground there.

[RashoFan]

Yeah its really nice. You can track multiple flights up there - they should have 2 planes ujp all times frmo this point on.

New pressure found - 949.00

The rate of pressure falls is really really really bad news. Tehre is also now a 10 degree tempature difference between the eyewall and eye which indicates a rapid strengthening cycle as well.

This storm is flat out getting stronger.

Oh SHIT....

[RashoFan]

Is there any of the wind sheering going on or has that all gone away?

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

Is there any of the wind sheering going on or has that all gone away?

I'm no weathermanny, but it looks like this thing is just going to continue to intensify on through landfall. The shear, the dry air, it's either all gone or this thing has so much power it just doesn't matter any more.

[GuerillaBlack]

I'm no weathermanny, but it looks like this thing is just going to continue to intensify on through landfall. The shear, the dry air, it's either all gone or this thing has so much power it just doesn't matter any more.

you can't control what the hurricane do. it has a mind of its own.

seriously. this thing is flat out crazy.

[MannyIsGod]

Its struggling. If it wasn't you'd see a nice eye under everything. I doubt it gets weaker and it probably at the least maintains the speeds it has now. Strengthening is possible as well.

Just hope that it weakens.

[Heath Ledger]

In a really sick way i want this thing to do as much damage as possible, I don't really want people to get hurt, however ever since i was a kid in Florida and I went through a few decent sized hurricanes, I've always been in awe of the destruction caused from the hurricane. My parents always took us for a drive along the coastline to see the damage and i was absolutely in awe of it.

For some reason into adulthood that hasn't changed. Like I said i don't want people or animals to get hurt, but my curiousity of the damage potential is still there. I guess that makes me a bad person huh?

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

All I know about weather I learned from this thread (mostly), but I keep hearing the MSNBC weather guy saying a "direct hit" would have been worse for New Orleans and that it heading towards Houma is better for NO.

Isn't the worst stuff on the northeast side of the eye?

[RashoFan]

Nope HL...almost sound like a First Responder....we kinda have a warped view on things.
Good call for us means bad shit for someone else.

[RashoFan]

All I know about weather I learned from this thread (mostly), but I keep hearing the MSNBC weather guy saying a "direct hit" would have been worse for New Orleans and that it heading towards Houma is better for NO.

Isn't the worst stuff on the northeast side of the eye?

That is what I thought too.

[Heath Ledger]

It's good to read that i'm not the only one that gets excited when i hear a major Hurricane is coming :) For NO's sake i hope it does not make a direct hit, i drove through NO few months after Katrina on my way moving to California from Florida and it was very sad. I couldn't wish that shit on anyone.

[Buddy Holly]

All I know about weather I learned from this thread (mostly), but I keep hearing the MSNBC weather guy saying a "direct hit" would have been worse for New Orleans and that it heading towards Houma is better for NO.

Isn't the worst stuff on the northeast side of the eye?

Well, the MSNBC weather guy knows jack shit.

[GuerillaBlack]

In a really sick way i want this thing to do as much damage as possible, I don't really want people to get hurt, however ever since i was a kid in Florida and I went through a few decent sized hurricanes, I've always been in awe of the destruction caused from the hurricane. My parents always took us for a drive along the coastline to see the damage and i was absolutely in awe of it.

For some reason into adulthood that hasn't changed. Like I said i don't want people or animals to get hurt, but my curiousity of the damage potential is still there. I guess that makes me a bad person huh?

*slowly raises hand*

ever since i was like 5, i've been fascinated by tornado and hurricane destruction. i always wish for no injuries or death though.

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

I don't know that I actually root for these things to happen, I've just learned in my time as a journo that these things will happen and I want to have something to do during these times. But it's not just something like a hurricane, though. In 2004, I was a rookie college reporter covering the election (local races leading to and national on election night) and I got the rush I get when any story breaks.

In 2006, I was working sports agate during the election and hated it. Now, I'm back and already worked an exciting Texas primary and I'm already working on the upcoming election.

I was telling a new intern yesterday that there are things one will hear in a newsroom that may shock people. Most, if not everybody, allows their morbid jokes and reactions into the open (similar to our jokes on here) as a coping mechanism. Many people use crass jokes and bad humor to cope, so that's natural.

But yeah, there was talk in the newsroom last night about some of us wanting to cover this hurricane from the field while some said they had no desire.

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

Well, the MSNBC weather guy knows jack shit.

Luckily, I have it on for background noise, but that well-known weather guy (Jim something) from the Weather Channel is giving the complete opposite.

He thinks we're in for doom. Hell, he just referenced a leaf flying in the winds of a hurricane and said it could cut your head off.

[Heath Ledger]

johnny where do you work?

[GuerillaBlack]

Luckily, I have it on for background noise, but that well-known weather guy (Jim something) from the Weather Channel is giving the complete opposite.

He thinks we're in for doom. Hell, he just referenced a leaf flying in the winds of a hurricane and said it could cut your head off.

Jim Cantori is god. srsly.

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

johnny where do you work?

http://www.ksat.com/images/structures/headers/site_header_logo.jpg

I've been working from home today. I collected some of the links for extended coverage and have been monitoring the local coverage while leaving it to our national desk to handle the big Gustav coverage. Plus, I dropped some links to our Web site affiliate's live coverage in NOLA. They've been on since this morning, at least.

There's not much I can do but make sure people who rely on or use my site have a wealth of information available. I also am covering the site all day tomorrow since my boss is taking the holiday, so I'm planning to go in much earlier than I normally would to make sure we're covered online should we go with local extended coverage.

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

BTW, Steve Browne was campaigning to go cover Gustav from the field, so we're expecting to have him live from Port Arthur tonight at 10 p.m. (Might as well get that shameless self-promotion).

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

BTW, because he's damn good at what he does, here's a video from earlier today from Austin American-Statesman VJ Jorge Sanhueza-Lyon as he and some of the AAS staff go to Louisiana.

http://www.statesman.com/news/content/multimedia/players/brightcove.html?bcpid=1459162514&bclid=1461295911&bctid=1766121827

And here's their Twitter. http://twitter.com/trackinggustav

[CubanMustGo]

The reason why Houma is good news for NO is that it's far enough south and east that the most destructive storm surge would not go directly into Lake Ponchetrain and overtop the levees in NO. The further west this thing goes the better off NO will be.

The NE quadrant is the worst, but the further you are from the eye, the less the damage will be. And by going WNW instead of NW the center of the storm will be further away from NO.

[MannyIsGod]

Dude Joe, next time you see him you tell Steve Browne that he's my hero. :lol

He's one of the few TV weather personalties that I love to watch. There's a guy out of OKC that I like as well but only because he's a tornado expert. Watching these guys in NOLA makes me want to puke with all the bullshit they spew.

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

Dude Joe, next time you see him you tell Steve Browne that he's my hero. :lol

He's one of the few TV weather personalties that I love to watch. There's a guy out of OKC that I like as well but only because he's a tornado expert. Watching these guys in NOLA makes me want to puke with all the bullshit they spew.

Browne finally got his HD camcorder working this week and loved editing it on our new Macs with FCP. I expect some great video from him when he comes back. He even got me excited about finally testing our my HD camcorder with actual HD video.

But yeah, I'll tell him.

[MannyIsGod]

The reason why Houma is good news for NO is that it's far enough south and east that the most destructive storm surge would not go directly into Lake Ponchetrain and overtop the levees in NO. The further west this thing goes the better off NO will be.

The NE quadrant is the worst, but the further you are from the eye, the less the damage will be. And by going WNW instead of NW the center of the storm will be further away from NO.

You're right and your wrong. The storm going into Houma is different from Katrina flooding the city with the lake but that doesn't mean its good. This time around its the places south of the city taht are going to get screwed. They're going to get the surge from the gulf through the (non existant) marshlands, bays, and canals. Ponchaetrain isn't the issue this time around. Everything south of the Mississippi river is. Thats why they keep talking about the west bank. Its not really on the west, its on the south and its wide open for this surge.

[MannyIsGod]

Recon just found pressure up a bit. Thats great news. Sadly it appares the storm keeps veering off slightly to the North of the forcast path. This just brings it closer and closer to NOLA.

[RuffnReadyOzStyle]

So, what will happen to NO after this?

It seems absurd that it will continue as a functioning city in its present form given that these kinds of storm will continue to hit it, but it's unprecedented in modern times for a city of a million people to be abandoned or relocated. That's one hell of a conundrum!

[MannyIsGod]

It will continue. They may lose more people depending on the level of the disaster and how much destruction there is but it will undoubtedly continue.

There's a reason its there. No one built NOLA because of the scenery. its in a swamp. But theres a reason its there and taht will continue to be important.

[E20]

What kind of fucking name is this for a hurricane. OMG This pisses me off so much that I want break something for some reason.

Prayers to everyone that is affected by this.

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

What kind of fucking name is this for a hurricane. OMG This pisses me off so much that I want break something for some reason.

Prayers to everyone that is affected by this.

http://www.fema.gov/kids/hunames.htm

[MannyIsGod]

Joe lets go storm chasing now that you have a super camera. :lol

[E20]

http://www.fema.gov/kids/hunames.htm

They could have looked the other way when that shit landed on Gustav and picked Gregory or something. Fuck this isn't Soviet Russia. Just saying the name Gustav pisses me off. Gustav, Gustav, Gustav. Now I can't stop saying it.

And I always thought they named the Hurricane for the person who first observed/discovered it.

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

Joe lets go storm chasing now that you have a super camera. :lol

Let me learn how to actually get clean HD video first. I'm obviously doing something wrong, but I can't figure out what (using Premiere).

[robino2001]

I liked a lot of the SA weather guys growing up there from 85-06, but I love Jim Spencer on KXAN in Austin... dude is AWESOME... he just did his 10pm lead in on the banks of Ponchartrain in NO getting slammed by water from the lake and sky already.

[RashoFan]

I just saw my fire chief on the news...pics from inside the EOC....
He now owes me some ice cream...:hungry:

[T Park]

LOL is manny gonna be the off camera guy getting bleeped every five mins? "Oh shot it's touched down!!!!!!!" :lol

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

LOL is manny gonna be the off camera guy getting bleeped every five mind? "Oh shot it's touched down!!!!!!!" :lol

I rarely, if ever, bleep Web video.

[RashoFan]

I rarely, if ever, bleep Web video.

really???
:eyebrows

[T Park]

I rarely, if ever, bleep Web video.

sweet made for DVD video then :lol

[MannyIsGod]

LOL is manny gonna be the off camera guy getting bleeped every five mins? "Oh shot it's touched down!!!!!!!" :lol

:lmao

Dude I would have so much fun storm chasing up in the panhandle. Its expensive as fuck now with gas prices, but I'm going to do it eventually. Maybe if I end up at Tech it will be easy.

[T Park]

go for it man that shit looks like fun

[MannyIsGod]

You guys see part of the weather nerd in me here. But if you actually ever spend time with me when shit like this is going on its a whole new level. I grilled tonight and I had the laptop outside next to the grill just so I could get the latest scan of from the GOES sat. When I was out at big bend I spent half the time driving with my head out the window looking at the cloud patterns to figure out when it was going to rain. LOL I predicted it pretty right on for the most part too.

Its a sickness. :lol

[GuerillaBlack]

You guys see part of the weather nerd in me here. But if you actually ever spend time with me when shit like this is going on its a whole new level. I grilled tonight and I had the laptop outside next to the grill just so I could get the latest scan of from the GOES sat. When I was out at big bend I spent half the time driving with my head out the window looking at the cloud patterns to figure out when it was going to rain. LOL I predicted it pretty right on for the most part too.

Its a sickness. :lol

You'll be a badass meteorologist. :toast

[RashoFan]

You guys see part of the weather nerd in me here. But if you actually ever spend time with me when shit like this is going on its a whole new level. I grilled tonight and I had the laptop outside next to the grill just so I could get the latest scan of from the GOES sat. When I was out at big bend I spent half the time driving with my head out the window looking at the cloud patterns to figure out when it was going to rain. LOL I predicted it pretty right on for the most part too.

Its a sickness. :lol

no manny...it is your passion. And it is cool! :smokin

[Ginofan]

Go to tech so my brother will have a roommate for his last semester and my parents won't have to spend so much on an apartment just for him...hence more money for my wedding! Win-win situation!

And on a side note, you know grilling next to your laptop is not smart...that's probably why it's all effed up anyhow! Stoooopid homo.

[MannyIsGod]

The laptop was away from the grill fool. Its not like I was cooking on it. Its effed up because Joe's effing cousin didn't build it right. I should make him pay for it.

[Jekka]

You guys see part of the weather nerd in me here. But if you actually ever spend time with me when shit like this is going on its a whole new level. I grilled tonight and I had the laptop outside next to the grill just so I could get the latest scan of from the GOES sat. When I was out at big bend I spent half the time driving with my head out the window looking at the cloud patterns to figure out when it was going to rain. LOL I predicted it pretty right on for the most part too.

Its a sickness. :lol

I can vouch for this. It's pretty entertaining, though.

[Ginofan]

The laptop was away from the grill fool. Its not like I was cooking on it. Its effed up because Joe's effing cousin didn't build it right. I should make him pay for it.

You would think those asians know what they are doing when it comes to computers. pssh.

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

Its effed up because Joe's effing cousin didn't build it right. I should make him pay for it.

This is even funnier because one of my closest friends just sent me a text asking if I was Mexican. When I told him he of all people should know, he said one girl we hung out with in Chicago asked if I was Asian (she was Asian).

[Ginofan]

Does anyone have any links to any web cams on the gulf coast...there should be just a little bit of time before they get knocked out right?

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

Does anyone have any links to any web cams on the gulf coast...there should be just a little bit of time before they get knocked out right?

I don't specifically know of one, but I'm guessing you could find some at NOLA.com.

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

You would think those asians know what they are doing when it comes to computers. pssh.


I can't get these damn AVCHD files done right... If I had some Asian... it's been diluted.

[T Park]

I can't get these damn AVCHD files done right... If I had some Asian... it's been diluted.

:lol great stuff

[Ginofan]

I don't specifically know of one, but I'm guessing you could find some at NOLA.com.

Thanks I'll keep searching. The ones I've found have been in Florida and SPI, and one of this douche bag in Houma who didn't evacuate and is broadcasting his life until the hurricane hits.

[T Park]

:lol what's their to broadcat in the house? :lol

[Ginofan]

:lol what's their to broadcat in the house? :lol

It's just of these three guys sitting outside drinking it up. Not very interesting right now...I'm sure when they starting shitting their pants and wishing they had been smart and evacuated to be entertained.

[T Park]

The question is, is manny one of those who would stay behind?

[Ginofan]

Manny would be stupid to stay with a good chance of a CAT 4 unless he's getting really good hazard pay lol

[MannyIsGod]

the question is manny one of those who would stay behind?

Good question. I might, depending on the strength of the storm but I would likely not stay in my home. I'd find a safe place to witness the storm from. I'd likely find a parking garage or something of that nature.

I even have my limits though. In this type of storm I'd more than likely leave.

Mandy I think I have some webcam links - hold on.

[Ginofan]

The funny thing is these guys have almost 3000 people watching them! There's a chat and everything.

http://www.gregledet.net/hurricam/hurricam.html

[MannyIsGod]

http://www.maroonspoon.com/wx/gustav.html

Thats all i have. LIve streams of the TV stations. WDSU is the best, IMO.

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

The funny thing is these guys have almost 3000 people watching them! There's a chat and everything.

http://www.gregledet.net/hurricam/hurricam.html

Gotta love UStream.

[T Park]

how many times have they been told they are idiots :lol

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

[url]WDSU is the best, IMO.

IB represent.

[Ginofan]

http://www.maroonspoon.com/wx/gustav.html

Thats all i have. LIve streams of the TV stations. WDSU is the best, IMO.

Thanks dude, I've also found some live traffic cams and some cams on some bridges in NOLA.

[T Park]

what's IB joe?

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

what's IB joe?

http://www.digital-rapids.com/upload/cs_internet_broadcasting_logo.jpg

Who I work for. We do KSAT's Web site, WDSU's Web site, and about 60+ others across the nation.

[T Park]

I'm not currently at a tv what's the latest on it?

[T Park]

http://www.digital-rapids.com/upload/cs_internet_broadcasting_logo.jpg

Who I work for. We do KSAT's Web site, WDSU's Web site, and about 60+ others across the nation.

I honestly wish my of card was fast enough I miss local tv out here in Cali all summer

[MannyIsGod]

I'm having to prepare for the fantasy draft while keeping track on Gustav. At this point I might fuck up my cheat sheet and end up drafting Gustav.

[T Park]

would gustav count as the one college player? :lol

[MannyIsGod]

If you extrapolate current motion it probably ends up directly south of NOLA which is pretty horrible for the West Bank.

[MannyIsGod]

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SATRAPID/satir_24.gif

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

You know shit is going bad when you see new colors on the radar screens.

[MannyIsGod]

BTW just saw those guys with that link Mandy posted are in Houma. They may very well die. They're pretty much at ground zero in the middle of a fucking swamp.

Good luck to them, but truly they deserve a Darwin award for staying there.

[T Park]

damn hannah is turning into a bitch out there......

[T Park]

BTW just saw those guys with that link Mandy posted are in Houma. They may very well die. They're pretty much at ground zero in the middle of a fucking swamp.

Good luck to them, but truly they deserve a Darwin award for staying there.

multiple darwins IMO .

[MannyIsGod]

http://www8.dotd.louisiana.gov/emergency/images/Coastal_Land_Elevation.png

[MannyIsGod]

damn hannah is turning into a bitch out there......

Its not as bad as it looks really. All of the convection is to the SW of the center of circulation. The center is mostly exposed which is a sign of a struggling system. It has a chance to get its act together in the near future, however.

[T Park]

m I reading that right that there would be category 4 flooding?

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

I'm really considering linking to this Houma UStream...

[MannyIsGod]

http://www.stormtrack.org/radar/gustavloop.gif

Awesome link with the track the storm is forcast on. As you can see, once again its to the north and east. This shit gets worse for NO by the hour.

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

Somebody calling from Pflugerville.

[T Park]

I was hoping for hannah to be a mild tropical storm and douse sc and nc since they are in a bad drought

[MannyIsGod]

I'm really considering linking to this Houma UStream...

I'm telling you dude, those guys have a real 50/50 shot of death. They're more than likely going to get nasty surge of 10ft plus. Most of Houma is below that. The entire town will likely be under water. Oh yeah then you have the 115 winds in the eyewall that will likely pass over them.

Idiots.

[baseline bum]

I'd watch, but the power will surely go out an shut down the feed before we can see them get killed.

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

I'm telling you dude, those guys have a real 50/50 shot of death. They're more than likely going to get nasty surge of 10ft plus. Most of Houma is below that. The entire town will likely be under water. Oh yeah then you have the 115 winds in the eyewall that will likely pass over them.

Idiots.

If you're trying to convince me not to link, that actually didn't help.

[T Park]

we might not have a NOLA tommarow night at this time....

[MannyIsGod]

If you're trying to convince me not to link, that actually didn't help.

LOL Oh I don't give a shit either way. If you do link, I'd suggest an appropriate title to the link. Idiots should suffice.