Meltdown.

[Yonivore]

JOOjqjntjDY
Okay, I know we have, at least, the 10 smartest Mensa members posting in here, on a regular basis.

What does this mean for the rest of us?

[admiralsnackbar]

Provided they are only releasing irradiated steam, not much.

[boutons_deux]

An 8.9 Quake Could Have Irradiated the Entire US

Had the massive 8.9 Richter-scale earthquake that has just savaged Japan hit off the California coast, it could have ripped apart at least four coastal reactors and sent a lethal cloud of radiation across the entire United States.

The two huge reactors each at San Onofre and Diablo Canyon are not designed to withstand such powerful shocks. All four are extremely close to major faults.

http://www.commondreams.org/view/2011/03/11-12

http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&source=s_q&hl=en&geocode=&q=San+Onofre+Nuclear+Generating+Station,+Old+Highw ay+101,+Oceanside,+CA&aq=0&sll=37.0625,-95.677068&sspn=55.806079,135.263672&ie=UTF8&hq=&hnear=San+Onofre+Nuclear+Generating+Station,+Old+H ighway+101,+Oceanside,+California+92058&ll=33.368891,-117.554548&spn=0.003638,0.008256&t=h&z=18

=============

Let's be a responsible, adult country, and procrastinate until these reactors are destroyed, then let the disaster capitalists make $Bs in the aftermath.

[Capt Bringdown]

It's clean, it's safe, it's too cheap to meter...

[ElNono]

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_6CHDYqoDyu0/TAL_I3je9MI/AAAAAAAAADg/zX0s9nwt3K0/s400/three-eyed-fish-simpsons.gif

[Wild Cobra]

JOOjqjntjDY
Okay, I know we have, at least, the 10 smartest Mensa members posting in here, on a regular basis.

What does this mean for the rest of us?
Don't know. I heard only radioactive iodine was released, that there is no threat. As for what they are saying, should I ask my daughter? She speaks Japanese and is making a trip there soon.

You are talking about the explosion at the 1:44 mark, right?

[Wild Cobra]

http://www.fusedfilm.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/godzilla2000.jpg

[ChumpDumper]

It means you're a selfish prick.

[CosmicCowboy]

Those white clouds are steam. It was probably a steam explosion in the support piping that collapsed the outside building. Steam explosions can be absolutely catastrophic just like gas explosions. They are still pumping water on the core and the core is supposedly still intact. Hope for the best.

[Winehole23]

Thousands dead, more missing, 5 declared nuclear emergencies, tens of thousands evacuated, cesium detected, aftershocks galore...and Yoni is worried about the impact on us.

[Wild Cobra]

Would it be called the Uruguay Syndrome, or Brazil Syndrome in Japan?

The opposite point of earth from the Fukushima I power plant is in the Atlantic, real close to these countries.

map (http://maps.google.com/maps?q=37.42139S+38.9675W&oe=utf-8&client=firefox-a&ie=UTF8&hl=en&ll=-37.419118,-38.958893&spn=53.087078,80.244141&z=4)

[Winehole23]

http://theintelhub.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/Fallout-Map.gif

http://theintelhub.com/2011/03/12/29810/

[Winehole23]

(map not sourced -- looking for more )

[Winehole23]

Historical:

http://qed.princeton.edu/getfile.php?f=Radioactive_fall-out_from_the_Chernobyl_accident.jpg

[balli]

tick tick tickety means run your ass outta there and pop some radaway for good measure

[Halberto]

"Some are now speculating that increased solar activity could be connected to the recent outbreak of earthquakes, along with fluctuations in the earth magnetic field and possibly HAARP. Massive solar flares have been reported over the past week."

:lol

[Winehole23]

Ridiculous, yes.

[MannyIsGod]

"Some are now speculating that increased solar activity could be connected to the recent outbreak of earthquakes, along with fluctuations in the earth magnetic field and possibly HAARP. Massive solar flares have been reported over the past week."

:lol

Facepalm.

Is 750 rads even noteworthy? (from WH's map - I honestly don't know)

What I do know is that if that thing goes you can forget any new nuclear reactors in the United States.

[Winehole23]

Having already reported on the risk of nuclear meltdown in Japan, assessing the fallout risk to Japan and others would seem to be an obvious knock on. Not sure whether it's odd or not that no MSM outlets are doing so yet.

[MannyIsGod]

Thats a good point. I haven't seen much coverage on whats going on but you would think that coverage would now include the disaster scenario maps.

[Winehole23]

Facepalm.

Is 750 rads even noteworthy? (from WH's map - I honestly don't know).I'm pretty dubious about the map and totally ignorant of the possible impact on human health, supposing the info it contains is even close to correct. Presumably reactor design/damage would be a factor as to the severity of fallout in the case of meltdown too.

[MannyIsGod]

BTW WH, I think that map you linked is terrible. After looking at it a bit and reading the logic I think he's FOS.

[MannyIsGod]

I'm pretty dubious about the map and totally ignorant of the possible impact on human health, supposing the info it contains is even close to correct. Presumably reactor design/damage would be a factor as to the severity of fallout in the case of meltdown too.

Yeah, I looked at it by going to the link and the logic that a meltdown in japan is going to produce an explosion large enough to get nuclear material into the 300 mb layer is dubious at best.

[Winehole23]

BTW WH, I think that map you linked is terrible. After looking at it a bit and reading the logic I think he's FOS.Oh i think so too. I was just trying to get a handle on where Yoni's concern was coming from and what's flying around the internets right now. It does look like crapola, but the silence of the MSM on such an intuitive threat is odd too.

[Marcus Bryant]

Based on a couple google searches, which now makes me an expert in radiation sickness, 750 rads ain't shit.

[Marcus Bryant]

Thousands dead, more missing, 5 declared nuclear emergencies, tens of thousands evacuated, cesium detected, aftershocks galore...and Yoni is worried about the impact on us.

Puro Americano. Or, the legacy of the Enlightenment.

[Viva Las Espuelas]

What I do know is that if that thing goes you can forget any new nuclear reactors in the United States.

What exactly leads you to make that statement?

[The Reckoning]

http://theintelhub.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/Fallout-Map.gif

http://theintelhub.com/2011/03/12/29810/


this is a cruel joke by 4chan last night.

that map wouldnt be valid because winds travel counterclockwise in the pacific.

[Thompson]

As far as winds are concerned, there are winds at a certain altitude that carry from Japan to the U.S.; in WWII, the Japanese tried a bombing campaign where they strapped bombs to balloons and let the wind carry them over to the U.S. The U.S. government hushed up the fact that a few of them landed (not sure if they actually caused any damage, they landed in California I think), and the Japanese gave up when they didn't hear of any success with the bombs reaching the U.S. mainland.

[PublicOption]

http://www.hiroshima-remembered.com/photos/hiroshima/images/HR01.jpg

[baseline bum]

As far as winds are concerned, there are winds at a certain altitude that carry from Japan to the U.S.; in WWII, the Japanese tried a bombing campaign where they strapped bombs to balloons and let the wind carry them over to the U.S. The U.S. government hushed up the fact that a few of them landed (not sure if they actually caused any damage, they landed in California I think), and the Japanese gave up when they didn't hear of any success with the bombs reaching the U.S. mainland.

I think one of those actually did kill someone in Oregon.

[SnakeBoy]

They're saying that there is now a major emergency situation at another reactor after it got rocked by another aftershock (6.something) just 80 miles from it.

Japan just can't catch a break right now.

[The Reckoning]

I think one of those actually did kill someone in Oregon.


yeah the guy started tinkering with the bomb because he didnt know what it was :lol

i actually think my counterclockwise assumption was wrong, and thats the southern hemisphere and not the pacific...but....arctic winds do push counterclockwise so i doubt the distribution would be that uniform.

[Cant_Be_Faded]

It's all the upcoming supermoon's fault.

[MannyIsGod]

The jetstream winds will blow from Japan to the United States at about an altitude of 40,000 feet. How the fuck would you get the reactor to that height?

[Yonivore]

Thousands dead, more missing, 5 declared nuclear emergencies, tens of thousands evacuated, cesium detected, aftershocks galore...and Yoni is worried about the impact on us.
More curious than worried but, what's the matter? I can't grieve for the Japanese without being concerned about what a nuclear plant meltdown might portend for the rest of us?

You seriously have it in for me that bad that you've got to find something critical to say? Wow...that's disturbing.

[Thompson]

More curious than worried but, what's the matter? I can't grieve for the Japanese without being concerned about what a nuclear plant meltdown might portend for the rest of us?

You seriously have it in for me that bad that you've got to find something critical to say? Wow...that's disturbing.


Oh i think so too. I was just trying to get a handle on where Yoni's concern was coming from and what's flying around the internets right now. It does look like crapola, but the silence of the MSM on such an intuitive threat is odd too.

Apparently it's O.K. or even expected for the media to look into it, but don't you dare raise the issue yourself, Yonivore. :lol

[Wild Cobra]

this is a cruel joke by 4chan last night.

that map wouldnt be valid because winds travel counterclockwise in the pacific.
Well, someone just made that shit up that didn't know jack about nuclear. A large single bomb doesn't have that type of spread. This isn't a bomb. Such patterns for high levels of radiation normally go a few hundred miles. Not thousands.

[Wild Cobra]

"Some are now speculating that increased solar activity could be connected to the recent outbreak of earthquakes, along with fluctuations in the earth magnetic field and possibly HAARP. Massive solar flares have been reported over the past week."

:lol
Who, conspiracy theorists?

I suppose we now possess a tractor beam to move the plates.

[Winehole23]

I can't grieve for the Japanese without being concerned about what a nuclear plant meltdown might portend for the rest of us?What grieving? I thought you were more curious than worried.


You seriously have it in for me that bad that you've got to find something critical to say? Wow...that's disturbing.Thanks for your concern.

[Winehole23]

Apparently it's O.K. or even expected for the media to look into it, but don't you dare raise the issue yourself, Yonivore. :lolNot resting content with my initial impression I went a little further with it. My second thoughts did not conform with my snap response. Ho hum.

[Thompson]

I'm not really familiar with the source, but I found the link at realclearpolitics.

It mentions the issues with the reactors.

http://bravenewclimate.com/2011/03/13/fukushima-simple-explanation/

[RandomGuy]

Don't know. I heard only radioactive iodine was released, that there is no threat. As for what they are saying, should I ask my daughter? She speaks Japanese and is making a trip there soon.

You are talking about the explosion at the 1:44 mark, right?

You should have read the bit about the tours given at Chernobyl a bit back by MB.

One of the bits that I got out of that was that shorter half-life = more intense radiation. The Russian authorities were highly criticised because they didn't warn people, and a lot of the initial radiation was from iodine.

Iodine apparently has a very short short half-life and consequently is highly radioactive. Not something you want to be exposed to.

[RandomGuy]

As far as winds are concerned, there are winds at a certain altitude that carry from Japan to the U.S.; in WWII, the Japanese tried a bombing campaign where they strapped bombs to balloons and let the wind carry them over to the U.S. The U.S. government hushed up the fact that a few of them landed (not sure if they actually caused any damage, they landed in California I think), and the Japanese gave up when they didn't hear of any success with the bombs reaching the U.S. mainland.

Confirmed. Have to dig to find the link to this, but a couple of them did land.

They actually put bioweapons (anthrax etc) in a couple of them.

The Japs used bio-weapons on the Chinese in WW2, and there are still areas that have outbreaks of the diseases they used.

Back to the air patterns, if it gets high enough, it will reach the U.S.

[RandomGuy]

You can forget new nuclear reactors in the US


What exactly leads you to make that statement?

Seriously?

This will give ammunition and motivation to anti-nuclear NIMBY.

Nukes cost too much, are a constant security threat/drain on money, and if something goes wrong, it goes really really wrong.

Not worth it, in my opinion. By the time you engineer enough redundancy in the systems and make it hardened against suicide 747's, truck bombs, earthquakes, etc, you have jacked the cost beyond all original projections, and could have spent the money elsewhere.

[IronMaxipad]

http://theintelhub.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/Fallout-Map.gif

http://theintelhub.com/2011/03/12/29810/

You have just been trolled by 4chan..

edit: beat

[The Reckoning]

WH you should probably run a virus scan just for precaution

[Wild Cobra]

You should have read the bit about the tours given at Chernobyl a bit back by MB.

One of the bits that I got out of that was that shorter half-life = more intense radiation. The Russian authorities were highly criticised because they didn't warn people, and a lot of the initial radiation was from iodine.

Iodine apparently has a very short short half-life and consequently is highly radioactive. Not something you want to be exposed to.
Yes, I do understand that. It had a 15,700,000 years half-life for Iodine-129 and 8 days for Iodine-131. Still, it isn't in a very large quantity, and gets rained out fast.

[RandomGuy]

Yes, I do understand that. It had a 15,700,000 years half-life for Iodine-129 and 8 days for Iodine-131. Still, it isn't in a very large quantity, and gets rained out fast.

Unless of course the meltdowns continue, and they can't contain the reactor beds.

What concerns me is that foreign news sources seem to indicate problems at more and more plants and reactors.


Vienna, Mar 13 (AFP) Following the explosion at a quake-hit nuclear plant in Japan, a state of emergency has been declared at a second facility due to excessive radiation levels there, the UN atomic watchdog said today.
"Japanese authorities have informed the IAEA that the first or lowest state of emergency at the Onagawa nuclear power plant has been reported by Tohoku Electric Power Company," the International Atomic Energy Agency said in a statement.
The alert was declared "as a consequence of radioactivity readings exceeding allowed levels in the area surrounding the plant. Japanese authorities are investigating the source of radiation," the watchdog said.

According to the authorities, the three reactor units at the Onagawa nuclear power plant "are under control," the IAEA added.


Officials almost always understate the magnitude of the problem. I think it more likely than not that there is more going on that we are aware of yet.

[RuffnReadyOzStyle]

Although the reactors haven't melted down (yet), the increased radioactivity in the surrounding regions shows how dangerous the situation is, and hints at the kind of long term damage to the environment and human health that we'll see in coming years/decades/centuries (depending on the half-lives of the isotopes involved).

Releasing radioactive elements into the environment will mean increased incidence of cancers, not only in the immediate region, but probably a far more widespread area due to bioaccumulation through the foodchain. Don't believe the bullshit being spread by the Japanese govt and world media that everything is fine as long as the radioactive materials are blown out to sea - everything on the planet is interconnected, and those materials will come back to humans through the things we eat.

I don't understand why anyone would build a nuclear power plant near a highly active fault line, nor why the world isn't scrapping the idea of building any more meltdown-prone III generation nuclear plants for total investment in IV gen thorium plants which will run off spent fuel rods from III gen and also can't melt down.

Stupid humans.

[The Reckoning]

fucking morons

[RuffnReadyOzStyle]

fucking morons

Humans? Yes. Throwing stones in glass houses isn't wise though. What's going to happen when the next big quake hits the San Andreas fault? How many nuclear plants will be affected by that?

There's one thing we should all be able to agree on - raising the level of radioisotopes in the environment is not good for human or environmental health, and the results can last far longer than this civilisation will due to the nature of many radioactive isoptopes. In other words, why the fuck don't we get rational about the dangers of III gen nuclear power and put it on hold until we can build plants that won't melt down, and stable, long-term storage facilities for the waste they've already produced.

PS I wouldn't believe a word coming out of Japan about this stuff. They have covered up nuclear accidents before, and their culture naturally acts to cover up anything shameful (I lived there for 2 years and have seen how it works). I hope the IAEA has people on the ground there to monitor this stuff properly.

[admiralsnackbar]

Jesus... full scale-explosion reported.

http://www.digitaljournal.com/article/304616

[RuffnReadyOzStyle]

And a radioactive plume 100miles long (at least).

http://abcnews.go.com/International/uss-carrier-ronald-reagan-moved-detecting-radioactive-plume/story?id=13129409

This will not end well.

[RuffnReadyOzStyle]

Jesus... full scale-explosion reported.

http://www.digitaljournal.com/article/304616

That story is contradictory - there has been a hydrogen explosion, yet the reactor containment vessel is still intact!? Hmmmmm, sounds dubious to me. I saw footage of the explosion.

[admiralsnackbar]

That story is contradictory - there has been a hydrogen explosion, yet the reactor containment vessel is still intact!? Hmmmmm, sounds dubious to me. I saw footage of the explosion.

Agreed, but such are the pitfalls of reporting breaking news -- reporters are consolidating different accounts and probably not fact-checking critically.

[boutons_deux]

"experts in Japan and the United States say the country is now facing a cascade of accumulating problems that suggest that radioactive releases of steam from the crippled plants could go on for weeks or even months

experts in Japan and the United States say the country is now facing a cascade of accumulating problems that suggest that radioactive releases of steam from the crippled plants could go on for weeks or even months

as one senior official put it, “under the best scenarios, this isn’t going to end anytime soon.” "

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/14/world/asia/japan-fukushima-nuclear-reactor.html?_r=1&partner=rss&emc=rss

[Winehole23]

WH you should probably run a virus scan just for precautionProbably a good idea. Thanks for the suggestion.

[Cry Havoc]

:depressed

What a horrible week for nuclear power and for people living in that region.

[Viva Las Espuelas]

What I do know is that if that thing goes you can forget any new nuclear reactors in the United States.


What exactly leads you to make that statement?

That was a genuine question, but oh well.

Any who, I heard something on Headline News, not Foe News, this morning and it was stated that GE designed all the reactors at that plant. I haven't verified the info but it kinda stood out to me. Hmm. I'm interested to see what comes of that, if it's true. Very interested.

[RandomGuy]

That story is contradictory - there has been a hydrogen explosion, yet the reactor containment vessel is still intact!? Hmmmmm, sounds dubious to me. I saw footage of the explosion.

Essentially you have a two layered shell. There is the inner sealed core part of the reactor, and what amounts to a building built around that shell.

The explosion, albeit dramatic occured in the outer "shell" building, blowing off the roof. (NPR story this morning heard on radio).

Problematic is reports I have gotten that the cooling water has completely boiled away in one of these things.

Meltdown of the exposed rods is happening now, and I use that word deliberately. What is happening in these reactors is, by any definition, a meltdown.

[boutons_deux]

The Jap nuclear catastrophe will increase investors', Wall St's 30-year recalcitrance to finance US nukes, before any even discusses which technology.

Their returns are much bigger and quicker elsewhere, esp in their rigged, tax-payer-backed casino.

[RandomGuy]

That was a genuine question, but oh well.

Any who, I heard something on Headline News, not Foe News, this morning and it was stated that GE designed all the reactors at that plant. I haven't verified the info but it kinda stood out to me. Hmm. I'm interested to see what comes of that, if it's true. Very interested.

Your question was answered. (http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showpost.php?p=5050228&postcount=45)

My take from the whole thing is that if the Japanese, who *KNOW* that their reactors have to be hardened against quakes and presumedly have done so, still have problems like this after a giant quake makes me shudder at the aging nukes in the U.S.

Massive earthquakes, although infrequent, still happen and not just in California:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1812_New_Madrid_earthquake


Some sections of the Mississippi River appeared to run backward for a short time.[3] Sand blows were common throughout the area, and can still be seen from the air in cultivated fields. The shockwaves propagated efficiently through midwestern bedrock. Residents as far away as Pittsburgh and Norfolk were awakened by intense shaking.[5] Church bells were reported to ring as far as Boston, Massachusetts and York, Ontario (now Toronto), and sidewalks were reported to have been cracked and broken in Washington, D.C.[6] There were also reports of toppled chimneys in Maine.[citation needed]

Eliza Bryan[7] in New Madrid, Territory of Missouri, wrote the following eyewitness account in March, 1812.


On the 16th of December, 1811, about two o'clock, a.m., we were visited by a violent shock of an earthquake, accompanied by a very awful noise resembling loud but distant thunder, but more hoarse and vibrating, which was followed in a few minutes by the complete saturation of the atmosphere, with sulphurious vapor, causing total darkness. The screams of the affrighted inhabitants running to and fro, not knowing where to go, or what to do — the cries of the fowls and beasts of every species — the cracking of trees falling, and the roaring of the Mississippi — the current of which was retrograde for a few minutes, owing as is supposed, to an irruption in its bed — formed a scene truly horrible.

The Shaker diarist Samuel Swan McClelland described the effects of the earthquake on the Shaker settlement at West Union (Busro), Indiana, where the earthquakes contributed to the temporary abandonment of the westernmost Shaker community.[8]

Such a quake, happening today with an East Coast MUCH more built up, would have some *bad* effects.

I am almost certain that there is at least one nuke in the US within range of any new quake from the same area that would be seriously hit.

Right now, all we can do is cross our fingers, and that scares the shit out of me.

[Viva Las Espuelas]

Well I was asking Manny, Professor Lambeau, but thanks for chiming in. Didn't see it.........cuz I asked Manny.

Any who, your Fields Medal worthy response was great. :tu

But
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/03/13/japan-nuclear-reactor_n_835057.html

[RandomGuy]

http://www.insc.anl.gov/pwrmaps/map/us_central.png

Central US map of nuclear power plants.

... and I was right.

New Madrid lies about where MO, AK, TN, and KY kinda intersect, at the lower bit of MO that kinda juts down into Arkansas in the southeast corner.

[ManuBalboa]

Fallout 3: Real Life Expansion Pack

[Cry Havoc]

Fuel rods in reactor No. 2 at Tokyo Electric Power's Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant were fully exposed when a cooling pump ran out of fuel on Monday, the power company said, according to Kyodo News service. Water levels were later restored to cover 30 centimeters of the lower rods, the report said.

:wow

http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2011/03/14/japan-quake-live-blog-rescuers-from-all-over-pitch-in-to-help/?hpt=T1

[cheguevara]

just do not download any japanese movies, games, anime or porn and we should be ok :tu

[Cry Havoc]

Just heard on CNN that the company who owns the power plant said that the fuel rods may be exposed again, but that they don't even know.

[cheguevara]

by any chance is this the Japanese company that owns the power plant?

http://graphic.fabulog.net/files/2011/02/umbrella-corp.jpg

[Cry Havoc]

http://26.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lf6hv1d00F1qewwdjo1_500.jpg

[hater]

pretty good article:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110314/ap_on_bi_ge/as_japan_earthquake_nuclear_crisis

"While four Japanese nuclear complexes were damaged in the wake of Friday's twin disasters, the Dai-ichi complex, which sits just off the Pacific coast and was badly hammered by the tsunami, has been the focus of most of the worries over Japan's deepening nuclear crisis. All three of the operational reactors at the complex now have faced severe troubles.

Operators knew the sea water flooding would cause a pressure buildup in the reactor containment vessels — and potentially lead to an explosion — but felt they had no choice if they wanted to avoid complete meltdowns. Eventually, hydrogen in the released steam mixed with oxygen in the atmosphere and set off the two blasts.

Japan's meteorological agency did report one good sign. It said the prevailing wind in the area of the stricken plant was heading east into the Pacific, which experts said would help carry away any radiation.

Across the region, though, many residents expressed fear over the situation.

People in the port town of Soma had rushed to higher ground after a tsunami warning Monday — a warning that turned out to be false alarm — and then felt the earth shake from the explosion at the Fukushima reactor 25 miles (40 kilometers) away. Authorities there ordered everyone to go indoors to guard against possible radiation contamination.

"It's like a horror movie," said 49-year-old Kyoko Nambu as she stood on a hillside overlooking her ruined hometown. "Our house is gone and now they are telling us to stay indoors.

"We can see the damage to our houses, but radiation? ... We have no idea what is happening. I am so scared."

Meanwhile, 17 U.S. military personnel involved in helicopter relief missions were found to have been exposed to low levels of radiation after the flew back from the devastated coast to the USS Ronald Reagan, an aircraft carrier about 100 miles (160 kilometers) offshore. "


so the good news is the wind is blowing the other way??? :wow

IMO this is already a meltdown and it will help more than a few ppl develop cancer.

[CosmicCowboy]

The worse news is that reactor #3 that just blew and has the rods exposed uses different fuel than the other two...it uses fuel rods from "recycled" nuclear warheads and burns much hotter.

[Marcus Bryant]

I wonder what the assumed probability for this scenario was when the plans for these reactors were laid.

[hater]

A) Power
B) Generators
c) Battery

IMO they fucked up and actually thought plan C was a good idea. Yeah, millions of ppls lives are riding on the energizer bunny :pctoss

[CosmicCowboy]

I wonder what the assumed probability for this scenario was when the plans for these reactors were laid.

They based the designs on a max quake in the mid 7's based on historic recordings.

oops.

[hater]

They based the designs on a max quake in the mid 7's based on historic recordings.

and this is the same blueprint USA's power plants use

[Marcus Bryant]

The bell curve, über alles.

[CosmicCowboy]

and this is the same blueprint USA's power plants use

Not exactly the same blueprint but there are 23 plants in the US that use the same Mark I containment vessel. Newer plants use the improved Mark II and Mark III designs.

[hater]

Not exactly the same blueprint but there are 23 plants in the US that use the same Mark I containment vessel. Newer plants use the improved Mark II and Mark III designs.

just heard the spokesman for Nuclear plants this morning.

"In California our plants are designed to sustain 7.x earthquake cause that is the highest recorded in California. In other areas depends on historical data of the area."

[Cry Havoc]

just heard the spokesman for Nuclear plants this morning.

"In California our plants are designed to sustain 7.x earthquake cause that is the highest recorded in California. In other areas depends on historical data of the area."

Yeah, 7.x ain't gonna cut it, considering what happened in 1906.

Chernobyl cost the USSR/Russia $200,000,000,000 because they didn't design it properly and didn't have enough training to recognize a pending disaster until it was too late. Katrina cost the US $120,000,000,000 because we didn't build stronger levees to handle hurricanes over Cat 3.

Are we ever going to learn?

[Wild Cobra]

New Madrid lies about where MO, AK, TN, and KY kinda intersect, at the lower bit of MO that kinda juts down into Arkansas in the southeast corner.
But is a Tsunami going to follow a New Madrid quake?

You know, it's the Tsuunami that wiped out the backup generation to maintain the pumping of cooling water, right?

[Cry Havoc]

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/42066534/ns/world_news-asiapacific/

Uranium rods 'highly likely' melting at third nuclear plant, official says

[Wild Cobra]

Still, no imminent threat of anything bad. Just a permanent loss of some reactors.

The news I think would love for this to be a larger disaster than it already is. In my view,they are wasting time of the disaster aspect rather than focusing on the resolve, of how a nation handles it.

[hater]

Still, no imminent threat of anything bad. Just a permanent loss of some reactors.

The news I think would love for this to be a larger disaster than it already is. In my view,they are wasting time of the disaster aspect rather than focusing on the resolve, of how a nation handles it.

so why would Japanese bother to constantly flood the containers with water, have a update press conference every 1/2 hour, relocate 1/2 million ppl and American ships need to be repositioned??

no worries right?

[RandomGuy]

But is a Tsunami going to follow a New Madrid quake?

You know, it's the Tsuunami that wiped out the backup generation to maintain the pumping of cooling water, right?

Actually I did not know it was the tsunami that did that.

I also have little background to be able to say whether or not an actual quake might disable any given reactor, and what size quake it would take to cause serious problems.

I assume that reactors are designed with some level of hardening to earthquakes, but I can't say how much punishment any given reactor could survive. Can you?

[boutons_deux]

Losing 3 nukes is like a $50B+ hit for replacement costs, and would take up to 10 years or more.

[Cry Havoc]

Still, no imminent threat of anything bad. Just a permanent loss of some reactors.

Uh... the reactors were lost when they were flooded with seawater. As soon as that happened, they were done forever. You can't introduce salt water into a controlled core environment like that without destroying the entire plant.

So, 1) methinks you don't know as much about the topic as you are purporting (shocking, I know), and 2) that this is a significant event. Why announce it if it means nothing (i.e., everyone knew the reactors were already gone, so why make this statement if it's redundant)?

Melted cores, without cooling, can quickly overheat and explode, and right now they are not being adequately cooled.

[RandomGuy]

Still, no imminent threat of anything bad that we know of yet. Just a permanent loss of some reactors.

The news I think would love for this to be a larger disaster than it already is. In my view,they are wasting time of the disaster aspect rather than focusing on the resolve, of how a nation handles it.

FIFY

In every nuclear power plant problem or accident, the people running it were found to have understated the magnitude of the problem.

I hope you aren't relying on "official" pronouncements.

I reserve judgment.

[Cry Havoc]

Actually I did not know it was the tsunami that did that.

I also have little background to be able to say whether or not an actual quake might disable any given reactor, and what size quake it would take to cause serious problems.

I assume that reactors are designed with some level of hardening to earthquakes, but I can't say how much punishment any given reactor could survive. Can you?

Japanese reactors were built to withstand mid-7 level quakes. This was significantly larger than that. I'm fairly certain that no US nuclear plant is built to withstand anything over an 8.0 on the moment-magnitude scale.

[RandomGuy]

Japanese reactors were built to withstand mid-7 level quakes. This was significantly larger than that. I'm fairly certain that no US nuclear plant is built to withstand anything over an 8.0 on the moment-magnitude scale.

Magnitude X Probability = total risk.

The consequences are severe enough that I would want stronger mitigation in terms of hardened design, in that case.

The odds of an earthquake of that magnitude somewhere in the US approach 1, given enough time. Simple probability.

[Cry Havoc]

Magnitude X Probability = total risk.

The consequences are severe enough that I would want stronger mitigation in terms of hardened design, in that case.

The odds of an earthquake of that magnitude somewhere in the US approach 1, given enough time. Simple probability.

The US has had several quakes that have exceeded 8.0 in the last 200 years alone. Alaska, New Madrid, and San Francisco were all estimated to have been at or over 8.0. New Madrid's might have been the weakest of the 3, but due to how loose the soil is in the central US, the effects can be much worse.

[Wild Cobra]

Losing 3 nukes is like a $50B+ hit for replacement costs, and would take up to 10 years or more.
They are probably already damaged beyond repair.

[Wild Cobra]

so why would Japanese bother to constantly flood the containers with water, have a update press conference every 1/2 hour, relocate 1/2 million ppl and American ships need to be repositioned??

no worries right?
Because the cleanup cost will be so much less if the reactor rods stay intact.

[Wild Cobra]

Japanese reactors were built to withstand mid-7 level quakes. This was significantly larger than that. I'm fairly certain that no US nuclear plant is built to withstand anything over an 8.0 on the moment-magnitude scale.
Yes, the 9.0 quake was 80 miles out at sea and 15 miles deep. Even farther than 80 miles from the reactors. I'll bet the quake didn't register a 7 at the reactor site. However, that's an educated guess. Any idea what the force was there?

[Wild Cobra]

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/42066534/ns/world_news-asiapacific/

Uranium rods 'highly likely' melting at third nuclear plant, official says
If so, the cleanup cost took a serious cost increase.

[Cry Havoc]

They are probably already damaged beyond repair.

As I said before, as soon as you flood a nuclear core with saltwater, it's a coffin. When that happened, they were sinking them for good. They'll never power on again.


Because the cleanup cost will be so much less if the reactor rods stay intact.

I'm fairly certain "cleanup costs" is not what's scaring people right now.


Yes, the 9.0 quake was 80 miles out at sea and 15 miles deep. Even farther than 80 miles from the reactors. I'll bet the quake didn't register a 7 at the reactor site. However, that's an educated guess. Any idea what the force was there?

In Japanese measurements, the quake was recorded in Fukushima as an "upper 6". That's probably around a 7 or above in moment magnitude scale, as it lists the conditions as being "Impossible to keep standing and to move without crawling." and "Occasionally, less earthquake-resistant buildings collapse. In some cases, even highly earthquake-resistant buildings suffer damage to walls and pillars."

Of course, this is all discounting damage from the tsunami.


If so, the cleanup cost took a serious cost increase.

It depends if they can contain the core within the chamber. It if actually does melt down and go through the floor of the reactor, then yes, it's going to be disastrous and increase chances for a major accident. At that point though, cleanup costs are secondary to preventing loss of life.

[TeyshaBlue]

The US has had several quakes that have exceeded 8.0 in the last 200 years alone. Alaska, New Madrid, and San Francisco were all estimated to have been at or over 8.0. New Madrid's might have been the weakest of the 3, but due to how loose the soil is in the central US, the effects can be much worse.

lol. My hometown out in West Texas just had a minor quake this morning. 3.8, but it was very shallow and pretty noticeable.

[hater]

Because the cleanup cost will be so much less if the reactor rods stay intact.

you make it seem like "cleanup costs" are the #1 priority for the Japanese handling this.

Nuclear meltdown is a health hazard first and foremost. why would they even be saying things like "good news is wind is blowing away from Japan"

[Wild Cobra]

It depends if they can contain the core within the chamber. It if actually does melt down and go through the floor of the reactor, then yes, it's going to be disastrous and increase chances for a major accident. At that point though, cleanup costs are secondary to preventing loss of life.
Didn't the reactors went through a proper SCRAM? Now I don't know, and didn't seek those details.

I agree with all you have said except I don't think these reactors pose any potential threat like Chernobyl, or Three mile island. I'm pretty certain most of this is now media hype, to sell stories and keep people tuned in.

[Cry Havoc]

Didn't the reactors went through a proper SCRAM? Now I don't know, and didn't seek those details.

I agree with all you have said except I don't think these reactors pose any potential threat like Chernobyl, or Three mile island. I'm pretty certain most of this is now media hype, to sell stories and keep people tuned in.

A SCRAM, when initiated, plunges fuel rods at a controlled, but otherwise rapid rate deep into the coolant (one of the reasons that Chernobyl exploded is that they actually dropped the control rods without controlling them, and when they hit the coolant, they were moving so quickly that they actually splashed a lot of it outside of the core, meaning they lost coolant from the SCRAM). The idea is that you completely submerge the rods, thus mitigating their ability to heat the steam that spins the turbines. A SCRAM is used to conclude nuclear power generation.

You cannot SCRAM if you do not have available coolant. Right now, these rods have nothing to keep them cool other than the seawater that's being pump into them, but it's not enough, as they are too hot to be sufficiently cooled by ocean-temperature water.

[Cry Havoc]

Emergency Cooling Effort Failing at Japanese Reactor, Deepening Crisis

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/15/world/asia/15nuclear.html?hp

Workers were having difficulty injecting seawater into the reactor because its vents — necessary to release pressure in the containment vessel by allowing radioactive steam to escape — had stopped working properly, they said.

The more time that passes with fuel rods uncovered by water and the pressure inside the containment vessel unvented, the greater the risk that the containment vessel will crack or explode, creating a potentially catastrophic release of radioactive material into the atmosphere — an accident that would be by far the worst to confront the nuclear power industry since the explosion of the Chernobyl nuclear power plant 25 years ago.


You can say it's hyperbole all you want, or media frenzy, but this is a serious situation, WC. If those fuel rods stay uncovered, they are going to get hotter and hotter until something catastrophic happens.

[boutons_deux]

Repugs "want to revive the site as part of a broader plan that calls for building 200 new nuclear plants by 2030."

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2011/03/13/110282/yucca-mountain-still-alive-under.html

=========

Repugs, ALWAYS with their heads up their asses. There's no financing for ANY nukes, never mind 200. And of course, the US taxpayer would be the liability insurer.

[TeyshaBlue]

http://www.audioandanarchy.com/images/smilies/fack.png

[CosmicCowboy]

Didn't the reactors went through a proper SCRAM? Now I don't know, and didn't seek those details.

I agree with all you have said except I don't think these reactors pose any potential threat like Chernobyl, or Three mile island. I'm pretty certain most of this is now media hype, to sell stories and keep people tuned in.

You are kidding, right? THREE reactors with exposed fuel rods and no way in hell of cooling them? Thats some bad juju, especially reactor #3 that is loaded with MOX fuel rods...it's shorter half life/hotter stuff...

[Marcus Bryant]

Since there appears to be at least one individual with some actual industry knowledge, as opposed to Google Wisdom, participating in this thread...let's say all three melt down. What is the impact locally? in Japan proper? the Korean Peninsula? China? Also, what is the impact to the US, including Hawaii & Alaska?

[CosmicCowboy]

Since there appears to be at least one individual with some actual industry knowledge, as opposed to Google Wisdom, participating in this thread...let's say all three melt down. What is the impact locally? in Japan proper? the Korean Peninsula? China? Also, what is the impact to the US, including Hawaii & Alaska?

Too many variables.

The classic full meltdown is when the fuel rods go molten. Average molten fuel rods hit about 3500 degrees. At 4000+ degrees the molten MOX rods may burn right through the steel and concrete of the containment vessel...then they hit the "dirt" under the containment vessel and continue to bore/burn straight down into the earth till they hit groundwater...then the subsequent steam explosion is like a huge "Old Faithful" geyser of radioactive crap that blows back out the top into the atmosphere...

At that point, it's a matter of how much and where. There will probably be a designated "no go" zone like Chernobyl. At the very least, even in a best case scenario and most of the radioactive junk blows out to sea and settles it's gonna create some issues with seafood and the food chain for a LONG time.

[MannyIsGod]

The impact matters on whether or not containment is breached. Other types of contamination depend on any type of breach and the method used to transfer material. If something doesn't explode then the impact should be well contained. Chernobyl was a core that exploded and had no type of containment.

This is not Chernobyl.

[CosmicCowboy]

One things for sure...if the rods have all gone molten they are burning through their containment vessels as we type. The question is do they burn all the way through before they finally expend their (now uncontrolled) energy?

[MannyIsGod]

I doubt it. They've already expended a lot of energy and its already been days since they shut down the reactors so they're already colder. I think a worst case scenario is pretty unlikely at this point but I obviously don't have any working knowledge as a nuclear engineer.

I really think the biggest danger you have is from any damage to those containment vessels from the earthquake or subsequent explosions. But as long as they're OK I think they'll be able to bleed off enough heat to avoid a complete disaster but then again they're doing stupid shit like running out of pump fuel and letting the tanks the pumps are drawing from run dry.

[hater]

the fact that Japanese technicians and politicians have not come out and say "this is nothing to worry about, noone will die" is probably a sign that lives are at risk right now.

[MannyIsGod]

Well no shit. They're not going to say that until they're absolutely out of the woods and they're not. But the chances of some real disaster are not really high at this point. It will be a long time before those reactors are completely under control.

[hater]

depends what's your definition of "high"

even a 1% chance is pretty high IMO when it comes to spreading radioactivity in the atmosphere and ocean

[CosmicCowboy]

I doubt it. They've already expended a lot of energy and its already been days since they shut down the reactors so they're already colder. I think a worst case scenario is pretty unlikely at this point but I obviously don't have any working knowledge as a nuclear engineer.

I really think the biggest danger you have is from any damage to those containment vessels from the earthquake or subsequent explosions. But as long as they're OK I think they'll be able to bleed off enough heat to avoid a complete disaster but then again they're doing stupid shit like running out of pump fuel and letting the tanks the pumps are drawing from run dry.

The containment vessels are made out of steel and concrete. A puddle of molten fuel rods can burn right through both. It does it the same way molten lava melts right through rock...

[MannyIsGod]

depends what's your definition of "high"

even a 1% chance is pretty high IMO when it comes to spreading radioactivity in the atmosphere and ocean

Fair enough.

[MannyIsGod]

The containment vessels are made out of steel and concrete. A puddle of molten fuel rods can burn right through both. It does it the same way molten lava melts right through rock...

Yeah at 4000 degrees I don't doubt it. That being said, everytime something melts more of that energy is used. I guess it really depends on how hot they are right now. My understanding is #2 has been the only one with exposed rods today but who knows for sure.

[boutons_deux]

Palast weighs in, sounds like more an expert than WC :) :

Tokyo Electric to Build US Nuclear Plants: The No BS Info on Japan's Disastrous Nuclear Operators


http://www.truth-out.org/print/68457

[Wild Cobra]

A SCRAM, when initiated, plunges fuel rods at a controlled, but otherwise rapid rate deep into the coolant (one of the reasons that Chernobyl exploded is that they actually dropped the control rods without controlling them, and when they hit the coolant, they were moving so quickly that they actually splashed a lot of it outside of the core, meaning they lost coolant from the SCRAM). The idea is that you completely submerge the rods, thus mitigating their ability to heat the steam that spins the turbines. A SCRAM is used to conclude nuclear power generation.

You cannot SCRAM if you do not have available coolant. Right now, these rods have nothing to keep them cool other than the seawater that's being pump into them, but it's not enough, as they are too hot to be sufficiently cooled by ocean-temperature water.
The control rods still reduce the neutron emissions, therefore reduce the heat. If my understanding is correct, they can melt, but not go supercritical.

[Wild Cobra]

One things for sure...if the rods have all gone molten they are burning through their containment vessels as we type. The question is do they burn all the way through before they finally expend their (now uncontrolled) energy?
Now I have no way of knowing this as fact, but it seems to me that they would have learned from past mistakes, and plaaced an alloy that would readily mix with any molten uranium at the bottom. As the uranium melts and mixes into a new alloy, it becomes less concentrated and produces less fission. It would be a final method of controlling the situation. If such a simple method was not implemented... then what can I say?

[CosmicCowboy]

The control rods still reduce the neutron emissions, therefore reduce the heat. If my understanding is correct, they can melt, but not go supercritical.

You're not getting. The worry is not going "supercritical" and having a nuclear explosion. The worry is the out of control fuel rods burning through the containment vessel and then a subsequent explosion/scattering of the fuel like an enormous "dirty bomb".

[Wild Cobra]

You're not getting. The worry is not going "supercritical" and having a nuclear explosion. The worry is the out of control fuel rods burning through the containment vessel and then a subsequent explosion/scattering of the fuel like an enormous "dirty bomb".
No, I do get it. problem with that is it assumes the material doesn't dilute by mixing with the other materials it melts along the way.

Once the pressure is gone there is no fluid within the heat range to cause a water explosion, which would be required to do as you imply. Now again, i do understand the possibilities. When i worked at an aluminum foundry, with had 3,000 pound molds... they held 3,000 lbs of aluminum. The process was a circular one. The aluminum was poured into a mold, several molds went in a circle. Water cooled, and were pulled out before filling again. On a rare occasion, traces of water was left in the tiny cracks that formed in the iron molds. The cooling sometimes brought the molds under 100 C. When this happened, and the molten aluminum was again poured in, a massive explosion would occur, and nearly all 3,000 lbs of molten aluminum went up in the air.

Yes, I understand the dangers. If this occurred with nuclear material...

Thing is, you will never see below 100C and a cavity condition for the water to form in, which are prerequisites.

[RandomGuy]

Palast weighs in, sounds like more an expert than WC :) :

Tokyo Electric to Build US Nuclear Plants: The No BS Info on Japan's Disastrous Nuclear Operators


http://www.truth-out.org/print/68457


Last night, I heard CNN reporters repeat the official line that the tsunami disabled the pumps needed to cool the reactors, implying that water unexpectedly got into the diesel generators that run the pumps.
These safety backup systems are the "EDGs" in nuke-speak: Emergency Diesel Generators. That they didn't work in an emergency is like a fire department telling us they couldn't save a building because "it was on fire."...


TEPCO and Toshiba don't know what my son learned in eighth grade science class: tsunamis follow Pacific Rim earthquakes. So, these companies are real stupid, eh? Maybe. More likely is that the diesels and related systems wouldn't have worked on a fine, dry afternoon.


Back in the day, when we checked the emergency backup diesels in America, a mind-blowing number flunked. At the New York nuclear plant, for example, the builders swore under oath that their three diesel engines were ready for an emergency. They'd been tested. The tests were faked; the diesels run for just a short time at low speed. When the diesels were put through a real test under emergency-like conditions, the crankshaft on the first one snapped in about an hour, then the second and third. We nicknamed the diesels, "Snap, Crackle and Pop."


In the US, we supposedly fixed our diesels after much complaining by the industry. But in Japan, no one tells TEPCO to do anything the Emperor of Electricity doesn't want to do.

I get lots of confidential notes from nuclear industry insiders. One engineer, a big name in the field, is especially concerned that Obama waved the come-hither check to Toshiba and TEPCO to lure them to America. The US has a long history of whistleblowers willing to put themselves on the line to save the public. In our racketeering case in New York, the government only found out about the seismic test fraud because two courageous engineers, Gordon Dick and John Daly, gave our team the documentary evidence.

In Japan, it's simply not done. The culture does not allow the salary men, who work all their lives for one company, to drop the dime.

Not that US law is a wondrous shield: both engineers in the New York case were fired and blacklisted by the industry. Nevertheless, the government (local, state, federal) brought civil racketeering charges against the builders. The jury didn't buy the corporation's excuses and, in the end, the plant was, thankfully, dismantled.

Am I on some kind of xenophobic anti-Nippon crusade? No. In fact, I'm far more frightened by the American operators in the South Texas nuclear project, especially Shaw. Stone & Webster, now the Shaw nuclear division, was also the firm that conspired to fake the EDG tests in New York . (The company's other exploits have been exposed by their former consultant, John Perkins, in his book, "Confessions of an Economic Hit Man.") If the planet wants to shiver, consider this: Toshiba and Shaw have recently signed a deal to become worldwide partners in the construction of nuclear stations

A bit of a rant, but they bring up a damned good point.

Why were the back up generators for the nuclear plant on the edge of an ocean not made to withstand a tsunami? A bit of concrete would seem to be sufficient for these generators to withstand such an event.

[Wild Cobra]

Why were the back up generators for the nuclear plant on the edge of an ocean not made to withstand a tsunami? A bit of concrete would seem to be sufficient for these generators to withstand such an event.
I agree. This was something that should not have been overlooked. Bet in the near future, things will be changing.

[MannyIsGod]

No, I do get it. problem with that is it assumes the material doesn't dilute by mixing with the other materials it melts along the way.

Once the pressure is gone there is no fluid within the heat range to cause a water explosion, which would be required to do as you imply. Now again, i do understand the possibilities. When i worked at an aluminum foundry, with had 3,000 pound molds... they held 3,000 lbs of aluminum. The process was a circular one. The aluminum was poured into a mold, several molds went in a circle. Water cooled, and were pulled out before filling again. On a rare occasion, traces of water was left in the tiny cracks that formed in the iron molds. The cooling sometimes brought the molds under 100 C. When this happened, and the molten aluminum was again poured in, a massive explosion would occur, and nearly all 3,000 lbs of molten aluminum went up in the air.

Yes, I understand the dangers. If this occurred with nuclear material...

Thing is, you will never see below 100C and a cavity condition for the water to form in, which are prerequisites.

The water would come from the ground should the core meltdown into the ground. It doesn't need to explode at that point, the steam itself would be radioactive.

[LnGrrrR]

The classic full meltdown is when the fuel rods go molten. Average molten fuel rods hit about 3500 degrees. At 4000+ degrees the molten MOX rods may burn right through the steel and concrete of the containment vessel...then they hit the "dirt" under the containment vessel and continue to bore/burn straight down into the earth till they hit groundwater...then the subsequent steam explosion is like a huge "Old Faithful" geyser of radioactive crap that blows back out the top into the atmosphere...

Yikes. Well THAT sounds lovely.


At that point, it's a matter of how much and where. There will probably be a designated "no go" zone like Chernobyl. At the very least, even in a best case scenario and most of the radioactive junk blows out to sea and settles it's gonna create some issues with seafood and the food chain for a LONG time.

More wonderfulness.

[Wild Cobra]

The water would come from the ground should the core meltdown into the ground. It doesn't need to explode at that point, the steam itself would be radioactive.
Yes, but it doesn't instantly heat to explosive potential fast enough. You will have a relatively fast ramp in steam pressure, but not an explosive force of it.

[RandomGuy]

I agree. This was something that should not have been overlooked. Bet in the near future, things will be changing.

Most definitely.

Long term they will change more:

http://www.aboutgenerator.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/07/how-to-build-a-wind-turbine.jpg

Japan has a lot of coastline.

[LnGrrrR]

On the whole "emergency backup" thing, one thing we're forgetting is that most backup systems aren't designed against a "worst-case" scenario, but a "bad case" scenario, due to cost.

Another problem is probably that said backup devices were predicated solely against an earthquake, and not against the probability of an earthquake/tsunami combo, as the article suggests.

Another good point it brings up is whether or not these backup systems are tested. I know in my field of networking, "backup" paths aren't tested as often as they should, because higher-ups don't want to take a chance of something going down, even momentarily. Then you add up poor funding into the mix, and you can't replace failed batteries, end-of-life devices, etc etc.

[MannyIsGod]

Yes, but it doesn't instantly heat to explosive potential fast enough. You will have a relatively fast ramp in steam pressure, but not an explosive force of it.

Dude it doesn't need to explode. Its going to be a radioactive cloud at that point.

[RandomGuy]

depends what's your definition of "high"



I will leave the definition of "high" to the experts. Where is mouse when you need him?






Ba dum tish! I'll be here all week...

[DarrinS]

Exposure lower than CT scans, air flight


http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/42075628/ns/health-health_care/





American experts monitoring the situation agreed, saying that reported radiation exposure remains far lower than normal exposure from background radiation in the environment, from medical procedures such as CT scans, or even from transatlantic air flights.

“I haven’t seen anything so far that seems to indicate that people are being exposed to levels of radiation that are acutely dangerous,” said G. Donald Frey, a professor of radiology at the Medical University of South Carolina.

Experts measure exposure to ionizing radiation in several ways, but the most current and accepted is based on the sievert, a unit named after R.M. Sievert, a 20th century Swedish physicist. The average person in the United States is exposed to about 6.2 millisieverts annually, with about half from background radiation and about half from medical sources.

For comparison, some experts refer to rem and millirem as measures of radiation exposure, but they're generally considered to be outdated terms. 1 rem is equal to 10 millisievert.

Using the newer measure, a one-time CT scan can expose a person to between 5 and 10 millisieverts. An X-ray of the spine might expose a patient to an estimated 1.5 millisieverts. A long, cross-country air flight might expose someone to about .03 millisieverts. A person who smokes a pack of cigarettes a day is exposed to 53 millisieverts each year, according to the National Institutes of Health.

[LnGrrrR]

Not sure what you're getting at DarrinS. Most people agree that, right now, it's not a problem. We're looking at the possibility of a much worse scenario, and possible complications from that.

[Yonivore]

Yeah at 4000 degrees I don't doubt it. That being said, everytime something melts more of that energy is used. I guess it really depends on how hot they are right now. My understanding is #2 has been the only one with exposed rods today but who knows for sure.
My understanding is the containment vessels -- unlike at Chernobyl -- are designed to withstand heat in excess of what would be generated by a core meltdown.

So, unless the integrity of the vessel has been compromised, there is little chance of an environmental exposure.

[MannyIsGod]

Would your understanding of Nuclear Power plants also include that they are not supposed to melt down?

[Yonivore]

Would your understanding of Nuclear Power plants also include that they are not supposed to melt down?
What's your point?

I'm hearing the containment vessels were designed to withstand temperatures in excess of what is achieved by a melt down of the fuel.

So, I guess my understanding is this contingency was taken into consideration during the design of the reactor.

[MannyIsGod]

My point? That as these nuclear plants have shown, shit doesn't always work the way its supposed to. I would have thought that was an obvious point.

[MannyIsGod]

Another explosion at one of the plants per CNN just now.

[Yonivore]

My point? That as these nuclear plants have shown, shit doesn't always work the way its supposed to. I would have thought that was an obvious point.
Who says the Nuclear plant didn't perform as expected to a 9.0 magnitude earthquake and resulting tsunami? If the containment vessel holds -- and, there's no indication it won't -- I'd say the nuclear plant worked just the way it is supposed to, given the circumstances.

[clambake]

Who says the Nuclear plant didn't perform as expected to a 9.0 magnitude earthquake and resulting tsunami? If the containment vessel holds -- and, there's no indication it won't -- I'd say the nuclear plant worked just the way it is supposed to, given the circumstances.

did the latest explosion explode the way it was supposed to?

[FlAVaK]

If the containment vessel holds -- and, there's no indication it won't -- I'd say the nuclear plant worked just the way it is supposed to, given the circumstances.

first vessel broken. reactor 2 evacuated! higher radiation in Ibaraki...

http://www.tagesschau.de/

[Yonivore]

Another explosion at one of the plants per CNN just now.
When I started this thread, I admitted to a certain amount of concern over how serious the reactor issues would become.

Over the weekend, I've heard commentary from a nuclear physicist familiar with the Japanese plant designs and from one of the designers. Both agreed, that unless the earthquake had compromised the integrity of the vessels, there is virtually no chance of a meltdown escaping the containment vessel. They were emphatic on that point.

They also said that while it was possible the vessels could suffer compromising damage during an earthquake of the magnitude experienced in Japan; since there has not been a catastrophic meltdown of any of the reactors (where fuel actually escapes into the environment) it is unlikely such damage occurred and the vessels should perform as designed and hold.

Look, I don't want to argue with you over the issue. I truly don't know what's going to happen; I was just sharing that my concerns have been considerably alleviated by what I've heard since Friday.

Oh, and they also said the vessels were designed to withstand a direct from a missile and a fully-fueled, fully-loaded commercial airliner. Nor did they believe the hydrogen explosions occurring, that are destroying the outer buildings, would be capable of breaching the vessel.

They spoke with authority and were believable.

They also mentioned something the media is reporting that is a bit misleading. When it is reported that the fuel rods are "exposed," it just means they are not submerged in coolant and, therefore, are susceptible to the increased heat that will melt them. It does not mean they are "exposed" to the environment outside the containment vessel.

[Cry Havoc]

When I started this thread, I admitted to a certain amount of concern over how serious the reactor issues would become.

Over the weekend, I've heard commentary from a nuclear physicist familiar with the Japanese plant designs and from one of the designers. Both agreed, that unless the earthquake had compromised the integrity of the vessels, there is virtually no chance of a meltdown escaping the containment vessel. They were emphatic on that point.

They also said that while it was possible the vessels could suffer compromising damage during an earthquake of the magnitude experienced in Japan; since there has not been a catastrophic meltdown of any of the reactors (where fuel actually escapes into the environment) it is unlikely such damage occurred and the vessels should perform as designed and hold.

Look, I don't want to argue with you over the issue. I truly don't know what's going to happen; I was just sharing that my concerns have been considerably alleviated by what I've heard since Friday.

Oh, and they also said the vessels were designed to withstand a direct from a missile and a fully-fueled, fully-loaded commercial airliner. Nor did they believe the hydrogen explosions occurring, that are destroying the outer buildings, would be capable of breaching the vessel.

They spoke with authority and were believable.

They also mentioned something the media is reporting that is a bit misleading. When it is reported that the fuel rods are "exposed," it just means they are not submerged in coolant and, therefore, are susceptible to the increased heat that will melt them. It does not mean they are "exposed" to the environment outside the containment vessel.

"There's nothing to worry about. We had a fire and it's been contained. No radiation has escaped from the plant."

- USSR Scientist, following the Chernobyl explosion.

It's amazing how cynical and hypercritical you are of so many posts to this site, DarrinS, but a person with an obvious agenda and a definite lack of knowledge ("We don't really know what's going on in the core") you take their word as a solemn truth without question.

[boutons_deux]

Japanese designs?

Nuclear experts weigh in on GE containment system

Since General Electric supplied the design four decades ago for all six nuclear reactors at the Fukushima Daiichi power plant in northeastern Japan, some regulators and critics have questioned whether the system — which was supposed to be smaller and less expensive than others — can withstand a nightmare scenario.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/nuclear-experts-weigh-in-on-ge-containment-system/2011/03/14/ABspN1V_story.html

[Cry Havoc]

I would say that this crisis now has the potential to surpass the earthquake/tsunami.

Horrible.

[Yonivore]

"There's nothing to worry about. We had a fire and it's been contained. No radiation has escaped from the plant."

- USSR Scientist, following the Chernobyl explosion.

It's amazing how cynical and hypercritical you are of so many posts to this site, DarrinS, but a person with an obvious agenda and a definite lack of knowledge ("We don't really know what's going on in the core") you take their word as a solemn truth without question.
And, right in the middle of my post...


Look, I don't want to argue with you over the issue. I truly don't know what's going to happen; I was just sharing that my concerns have been considerably alleviated by what I've heard since Friday.
I agree, it could be a complete catastrophe. I was just commenting that after hearing the commentary, I was less concerned than before.

Nowhere did I assert it was "solemn truth without question."

[Marcus Bryant]

http://mitnse.com/2011/03/13/why-i-am-not-worried-about-japans-nuclear-reactors/

[hater]

holy fuck :wow

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/ap_on_bi_ge/as_japan_earthquake_nuclear_crisis

Radiation is spewing from damaged reactors at a crippled nuclear power plant in tsunami-ravaged northeastern Japan in a dramatic escalation of the 4-day-old catastrophe. The prime minister has warned residents to stay inside or risk getting radiation sickness.

Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Edano said Tuesday that a fourth reactor at the Fukushima Dai-ichi complex was on fire and that more radiation was released

[hater]

My understanding is the containment vessels -- unlike at Chernobyl -- are designed to withstand heat in excess of what would be generated by a core meltdown.

So, unless the integrity of the vessel has been compromised, there is little chance of an environmental exposure.

this is bullshit. If there is an explosion those vessels can easily be fractured. you stop cooling those rods and nothing can stop them.

[SnakeBoy]

Not sure what you're getting at DarrinS. Most people agree that, right now, it's not a problem. We're looking at the possibility of a much worse scenario, and possible complications from that.

If you would have watched Glenn Beck today you probably see what (I think)he's getting at.

It was actually a pretty decent show for the first 20 minutes. Beck did a nice job of explaining what's going on with the reactors using M&M's and cooking pots. And also pointing out how some media is focusing on the worst case scenario for the reactors when they already have a disaster to cover that dwarfs what could happen with the reactors. Then he went on to explain why they were doing this which is best summarized with 3 words...Freakin George Soros!

[Yonivore]

http://mitnse.com/2011/03/13/why-i-am-not-worried-about-japans-nuclear-reactors/
Good information, Thanks! :tu

[Yonivore]

this is bullshit. If there is an explosion those vessels can easily be fractured. you stop cooling those rods and nothing can stop them.
I suggest you read the information at Marcus Bryant's link.

[LnGrrrR]

Wrong thread!

[Josepatches_]

My point? That as these nuclear plants have shown, shit doesn't always work the way its supposed to. I would have thought that was an obvious point.

This

Earthquake,Tsunami...whatever you want.We can't control nature

[Yonivore]

This

Earthquake,Tsunami...whatever you want.We can't control nature
But, you can plan for it.

And, according to the article Marcus linked; as well as the commentary I read and heard over the weekend, these reactors are nothing like Chernobyl. The fuel is hermetically sealed in a containment vessel designed to hold completely exposed and melted fuel indefinitely.

And, unless the integrity of the containment vessel has been compromised, it is highly unlikely there will be a Chernobyl-like release of radioactivity.

[Marcus Bryant]

We hope and pray. Even MIT can be wrong.

[Cry Havoc]

Another explosion just reported. :pctoss

[Yonivore]

We hope and pray. Even MIT can be wrong.
I agree. I'm just more hopeful, after reading that, than I was before. That's all.

[byrontx]

If the cores penetrate through the upper crust I wonder if it could have an effect on the fault and generate another mega-quake (possibly super steam acting as a lubricant)? They may not necessarily drop straight down and the line of least resistance could be right where you would not want it to be.

[boutons_deux]

Sounds like Palast was right

Japan Radiation Leaks Feared as Nuclear Experts Point to Possible Coverup

http://www.alternet.org/story/150249/

Nuclear experts have thrown doubt on the accuracy of official information issued about the Fukushima nuclear accident, saying that it followed a pattern of secrecy and cover-ups employed in other nuclear accidents. "It's impossible to get any radiation readings," said John Large, an independent nuclear engineer who has worked for the UK government and been commissioned to report on the accident for Greenpeace International.

"The actions of the Japanese government are completely contrary to their words. They have evacuated 180,000 people but say there is no radiation. They are certain to have readings but we are being told nothing." He said a radiation release was suspected "but at the moment it is impossible to know. It was the same at Chernobyl, where they said there was a bit of a problem and only later did the full extent emerge."

According to some reports, 17 helicopter crewmen helping in rescue efforts were contaminated with low-level radiation, but Japanese officials declined to comment.

The country's government has previously been accused of covering up nuclear accidents and hampering the development of alternative energy.

In a newly released diplomatic cable obtained by WikiLeaks, politician Taro Kono, a high-profile member of Japan's lower house, tells U.S. diplomats that the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry – the Japanese government department responsible for nuclear energy – has been "covering up nuclear accidents and obscuring the true costs and problems associated with the nuclear industry."

In 2008, Kono told them: "The ministries were trapped in their policies, as officials inherited policies from people more senior to them, which they could then not challenge." He mentioned the dangers of natural disasters in the context of nuclear waste disposal, citing Japan's "extensive seismic activity, and abundant groundwater, and [he] questioned if there really was a safe place to store nuclear waste in the 'land of volcanoes.'"

"What we are seeing follows a clear pattern of secrecy and denial," said Paul Dorfman, co-secretary to the Committee Examining Radiation Risks from Internal Emitters, a UK government advisory committee disbanded in 2004.

"The Japanese government has always tended to underplay accidents. At the moment the Japanese claims of safety are not to be believed by anyone. The health effects of what has happened so far are imponderable. The reality is we just do not know. There is profound uncertainty about the impact of the accident."

The Japanese authorities and nuclear companies have been implicated in a series of coverups. In 1995, reports of a sodium leak and fire at Japan's Monju fast breeder reactor were suppressed and employees were gagged. In 2002, the chairman and four executives of Tepco, the company that owns the stricken Fukushima plant, resigned after reports that safety records were falsified.

[The Reckoning]

great now they've gotten to the point of pointing fingers instead of getting shit down. they're more americanized than i thought.

[CosmicCowboy]

Well, if they lose #2 they lose them all unless they have a samurai suicide team willing to stay and keep trying to cool the cores in #1 and #3.

[MannyIsGod]

If any culture has people willing to do that its going to be the Japanese.

[RandomGuy]

Exposure lower than CT scans, air flight


http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/42075628/ns/health-health_care/

Let's just file that under "spoke too soon". "Radiation levels soars after fire." (http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/as_japan_earthquake)
or maybe, in the interests of intellectual honesty (a stretch for you I know), you could have added the rather important words...


so far.

[nkdlunch]

3 comical pathetic retarded things the damn Japanese govmt/nuclear company keep repeating:
1) Radiation levels dropped as the day went by - Of course, it just means the radiation has spread out to the atmosphere
2) Stay indoors - that is really gonna help??
3) The wind is blowing away from Japan - :pctoss

[RandomGuy]

My understanding is the containment vessels -- unlike at Chernobyl -- are designed to withstand heat in excess of what would be generated by a core meltdown.

So, unless the integrity of the vessel has been compromised, there is little chance of an environmental exposure.

Like, say, what might happen were they to be exposed to an earthquake beyond what they were designed to tolerate?

[CosmicCowboy]

Uhhh...they have already admitted they have damage to the suppression pool of the containment vessel on #2. In other words, they can't do shit to cool the molten core once the primary vessel fails.

[RandomGuy]

"There's nothing to worry about. We had a fire and it's been contained. No radiation has escaped from the plant."

- USSR Scientist, following the Chernobyl explosion.

It's amazing how cynical and hypercritical you are of so many posts to this site, DarrinS, but a person with an obvious agenda and a definite lack of knowledge ("We don't really know what's going on in the core") you take their word as a solemn truth without question.

It certainly seems that way. I have begun to secretly suspect he is reading through the wikipedia entries on the various types of cognitive biases and seeing how many of them he can sneak in.


"Cognitive bias is a general term that is used to describe many observer effects in the human mind, some of which can lead to perceptual distortion, inaccurate judgment, or illogical interpretation."

Psychology and the way the brain works have always fascinated me, and Darrin/Yoni/CObra/boutons' postings are an excellent example of many of these.

If you get the time, I highly recommend doing some brief reading on the topic, you will see some behaviors on the part of these people that are textbook cases of this.

Here is the entry on congnitive bias:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cognitive_bias

Here is a list of identified types of bias:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases

While these individuals display many types of this kind of cognitive bias, the one most direct is confirmation bias: "the tendency to search for or interpret information in a way that confirms one's preconceptions"

There was a related thread here also on studies done that show people tend to "dig in their heels" when given data that contradicts those preconceptions.
http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=158758

In my opinion, I think there is something in the nature of political conservatism itself, i.e. resistance to change, that I think tends to attract individuals who exhibit these kinds of cognitive biases.

That isn't to say conservatives in general are incapable of perceiving things rationally, or interpret data logically, but I think it tends to lower the odds when it comes to any given individual, and increases my skepticism when it comes to "conservative" solutions to problems. 101A is a good exception to this rule.

boutons and Dan for their end of the political scale do similar, and I am just as skeptical of solutions coming out of the farther end of the "left" scale of politics.

One of the best examples of this that outlines the type of confirmation bias was Darrin's comments in one of the wisconsin collective bargaining threads. There seems to be a lot of fairly objective data in the form of polls and increased activism that shows the issue has highly charged the Democratic base in that state. Darrin, after being presented with this information dismissed it as "insignificant", with the obvious implication, that if he were to see it as being significant, it would mean political setbacks for Republicans, something that he finds unacceptable.

That seems to me to pretty clearly fall under the category of "perceptual distortion, inaccurate judgment, or illogical interpretation".

Do some reading, it puts things that go on here in a whole new light.

/lecture

[Cry Havoc]

Well, if they lose #2 they lose them all unless they have a samurai suicide team willing to stay and keep trying to cool the cores in #1 and #3.


If any culture has people willing to do that its going to be the Japanese.

This is literally what saved Chernobyl from being 10 times worse. If the core had melted through the plant, it would have hit a reservoir of water under the plant, and the explosion would have been even more massive than the first one. They sent in suicide crews (who knew it was a very bad situation that they likely wouldn't survive) with minimal equipment to deal with it and drain the pool under the reactor. They did so, and saved millions of lives.

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-5384001427276447319#

This is an amazing documentary on the Chernobyl disaster and the rescue workers that responded to the crisis. Some of them died within days of being on-site.

[CosmicCowboy]

I just read that the Japanese Government has ordered the power company not to pull any employees from the plant...

http://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/news/international/Radiation_leaps_after_Japan_plant_blasts,_warnings _for_Tokyo.html?cid=29698946

[hater]

goddam!!!



Nuclear expert: “50-50 chance of a catastrophic radiation” from Japan
http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/asia-pacific/japan/110314/japan-nuclear-meltdown-disaster

GlobalPost: Officials have said the possibility of a large-scale radiation release is small. Do you agree?
Arnold Gundersen: I think that the probability of a large scale release is about 50-50, and I don’t call that small.

GlobalPost: Why do you think that?
Gundersen: For several reasons. One, you’ve got three reactors involved. Two, you’re already picking up radiation on aircraft carriers a hundred miles away at sea, on helicopters 60 miles to the north, and in town. So clearly, as these plants become more and more difficult to control, it becomes quite likely that a containment now will have a gross failure. And a gross failure will release enormous amounts of radiation quickly.

GlobalPost: The New York Times is reporting that radioactive releases could go on for weeks or months. How concerned should we be about that? At what point does a reactor like this becomes less menacing?
Gundersen: The chain reaction has stopped. That happened in two seconds. But the radioactive isotopes are still decaying away. They’ll decay for at least a year. So you have to release the pressure from that containment pretty much every day. With releasing the pressure will come releasing radioactive isotopes as well.

.So yes, the Times is right that every plant — there are now three or four of them — will be opening up valves every day to make sure the pressure is down. And there will be releases from these plants for at least a year.

GlobalPost: How much of a health threat is that?
Gundersen: Within 90 days, the iodine health risks will disappear, because that will decay away. But the nasty isotopes — the cesium and strontium will remain for 30 years. And they’re volatile.

After Three Mile Island, strontium was detected 150 miles away from the reactor. That ends up in cow’s milk and doesn’t go away for 300 years. The releases from these plants will last for a year, and will contain elements that will remain in the environment for 300 years, even in the best case.

If we have a meltdown, it will be even worse than that.

GlobalPost: The ultimate risk in any nuclear accident is that the heat can grow so intense that the steel containment vessel is ruptured, releasing a large amount of radiation. You say there’s a 50-50 chance of this happening. What kind of health effects can we expect?
Gundersen: First, it’s important to know that this steel containment is about an inch thick. It’s not some massive battleship of steel. The reactor is already open, because the pressure relief valves have to stay open.

On top of that, these containments have already breached. We saw iodine and cesium in the environment before the first unit exploded. When you see that, that’s clearly an indication that the containment has breached.

Now, is it leaking 1 percent a day? Probably. Is it leaking 100 percent a day? No. I think for the neighboring towns out to 2 miles, they won’t have anybody back in them for five years. Out to 15 miles, I doubt you’re going to see anyone back for six months. And that’s in the best case, without a meltdown.

If we have a meltdown, I don’t think anyone will be back within 20 miles for 10 or 15 years.

GlobalPost: What would happen if they did return?
Gundersen: There would be higher incidence of cancer. The groundwater would be contaminated. With a meltdown, you’re worried about surface contamination of everything within miles of the plant, and groundwater contamination as well.

GlobalPost: How far would the ground water contamination spread?
Gundersen: Chernobyl had a meltdown, and that groundwater wedge is gradually working its way toward Kiev, which is a very large city [about 80 miles away]. That groundwater contamination lingers for 300 years. It’s not something that’s easy to mitigate.

GlobalPost: That’s a serious issue in a country like Japan with a large population and a small land area.

Gundersen: That’s right.

GlobalPost: You mentioned that the containment vessels have already been damaged. It appears that officials are reporting the opposite. How do you know you’re right?
Gundersen: We’re seeing iodine and cesium in the environment. That’s an indication that the containments are leaking. Exactly how much they’re leaking it’s hard to say.

I can’t understand how officials can say that the releases are low, when they don’t have any instruments that are working. Their batteries have failed, and when the batteries fail, all of the instruments stop working. So it’s hard to determine what the radiation levels are, and what the pressure levels are.

The Japanese and the nuclear industry are heavily, heavily financially invested in this. My experience is that, after Three Mile Island and after Chernobyl, everybody said there wasn’t a problem, until there was a problem. So I really don’t put much faith in official pronouncements the first week of an accident.

GlobalPost: So the people who have access to information have a self interest in making that information look as benign as possible?
Gundersen: Yes. On top of that, the officials don’t want to provoke a panic. So there’s a financial long term interest to try to minimize the impact. The flip side of that is that in the process you lose transparency. There is no transparency right now. We’re dealing with second hand information.

I understand from one source that the second unit cannot be vented, because the vent is jammed. I don’t know if that’s true or not. I have one source, and I like to have two. But this accident hasn’t played out yet. It could clearly get worse before it gets better.

GlobalPost: When you say the venting system is jammed, does that mean that pressure will keep building up until something catastrophic happens?
Gundersen: Yes.

GlobalPost: That sounds bad. There have been explosions at two of the buildings where the reactors are housed. You used to operate nuclear reactors. Would the control rooms be affected by these explosions? And how do they continue controlling the reactors under these circumstances?
Gundersen: Yes. The control rooms have become almost uninhabitable. The operators would have to be in Scott air packs, because the ventilation failed. Otherwise they would be breathing contaminated air. The control room is very close to these reactors. Probably 200 feet away. I doubt there’s much being done in the control rooms. They’re contaminated, and the air is unfit to breathe. It’s very difficult to get anything done if you’re wearing an air pack and a bubble suit.

GlobalPost: So how do they release the pressure? Are they sending people to the reactor to manually do these things?
Gundersen: They’ll send someone out to manually open a valve. And then that person will go back out to manually close a valve. In a high radiation field, there are only so many trips you can make before you’ve exceeded what they call emergency limits. So these people are picking up very large doses in very short periods of time. For their personal health, you can’t send them out again.

So they’re running through the available number of operators to do these high risk maneuvers.

GlobalPost: Is it highly skilled work?
Gundersen: Yes.

GlobalPost: Do these doses endanger their health, or are they below thresholds that would cause a problem?
The probability of these workers getting cancer is dramatically increasing, because the doses they receive in a day are higher than what they get in a year. For every 250 rem received, there will be a cancer. That’s pretty well defined. So if one person picks up 2.5 rem, for every hundred people, one of them will get a cancer. That’s just a statistical crapshoot.

GlobalPost: How safe is Tokyo at this point?
.The radiation is being diluted by the wind and spread out. Tokyo is a long way away. Germany is a long way from Chernobyl, and the ground in Germany is so contaminated that they are still prohibiting the hunting of wild boars, 25 years later.

But we don’t have a lot of accurate measures. There’s a U.S. aircraft carrier 100 miles away, and the workers on that aircraft carrier received in one hour the dose they would normally get in one month.

GlobalPost: Is there any risk that the radiation would reach American shores?
Oh it will. Chernobyl reached the U.S. The question is how much radiation? There’s not a lot of data to make that determination right now.

GlobalPost: Should people be concerned about food contamination?
Certainly in Japan they should.

I’ve gone out and bought potassium iodine pills, and I plan to take potassium iodine starting in about 10 days, just because I’m concerned about food contamination. That’s a personal choice right now. My experience says that it would be prudent to get potassium iodine pills and take them, to avoid any of the iodine that might come over. But there’s not a lot of data to support whether or not potassium iodine really helps.

GlobalPost: Is that something that you can buy in a health food store?
Yes, you can get these pills in health food stores and online, although I hear that they’re selling out.

[RandomGuy]

GlobalPost: How much of a health threat is that?
Gundersen: Within 90 days, the iodine health risks will disappear, because that will decay away. But the nasty isotopes — the cesium and strontium will remain for 30 years. And they’re volatile.

Note: He probably isn't using volatile in the normal sense of the word, i.e. "likely to explode", the word has a very distinct meaning in chemistry:



"a measure of the tendency of a substance to vaporize. It has also been defined as a measure of how readily a substance vaporizes."

Vaporize as it become airborne and travel through the atmosphere.

[RandomGuy]

Pardon the pun, but it is looking more and more like the political fallout is that no democracy in the world will be looking to build a nuclear power plant for the foreseeable future.

This will now join an easy list of anti-nuclear bullets used against proposed nuclear reactors.

Three-mile island
Chernobyl
Fukushima


Depending on where you live, you would be familiar with other names as well:
The Lenin (soviet icebreaker ship)
Tomsk (USSR)
Lucens (Switzerland)
Orleans (France)
Jaslovské Bohunice (Czechoslovakia)
Windscale (Britain)

Disturbingly:
Ishikawa (Japan). Disturbing because the utility company falsified records of the incident to cover it up.

The list surprised me, I didn't realize that there quite so many incidents.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_civilian_nuclear_accidents

[Agloco]

Facepalm.

Is 750 rads even noteworthy? (from WH's map - I honestly don't know)

What I do know is that if that thing goes you can forget any new nuclear reactors in the United States.


Based on a couple google searches, which now makes me an expert in radiation sickness, 750 rads ain't shit.

Depends on the context. Usually these things are reported per hour.

As a side note for those interested, the units are wrong. Exposure is reported in rem, not rads. Rads or refers to dose or dose rate. Since most dose/exposure will come from gamma radiation in this case, people tend to use them interchangeably. Strictly speaking, this is not correct though.

Even if this is total exposure, it's considered significant. It's just below the threshold for deterministic effects. The longer term effects such as cancer induction have only limited studies due to the rarity of such events.

The real question that needs to be asked is: Over how much time will that 750 rad be delivered. If its an acute exposure, it's quite significant. If it's over a few weeks or months, not so much.

[hater]

http://mitnse.com/2011/03/13/why-i-am-not-worried-about-japans-nuclear-reactors/

I didn't know Dr. Strangelove was attending MIT

[Agloco]

My understanding is the containment vessels -- unlike at Chernobyl -- are designed to withstand heat in excess of what would be generated by a core meltdown.

So, unless the integrity of the vessel has been compromised, there is little chance of an environmental exposure.


We're getting conflicting reports about this. It truly depends on the fuel that's being used and the steel alloy used in the construction of the containment vessel.

Mostly uranium oxide melts around 2700-2900 C. Most steel alloys melt in the low 2000's. Odds are slim that the vessel will hold up.

I also heard reports that plutonium fuel was being used experimentally in one of the reactors, if so that presents another challenge altogether.

[Agloco]

My point? That as these nuclear plants have shown, shit doesn't always work the way its supposed to. I would have thought that was an obvious point.

These nuclear plants were designed to withstand an earthquake of "X" magnitude. They did just that, shutting down as they should.

The tsunami was the thing that screwed up the cooling mechanisms.

[RandomGuy]

Officials say Ukraine is likely to spend billions of euros on confinement upkeep costs before it finds a way to bury the reactor components, perhaps under layers of underground granite rocks. Even then the area around the plant will remain unsuitable for thousands of years. Asked how long before people can settle down and grow crops at the site, Chernobyl power plant director Ihor Gramotkin said: "At least 20,000 years."

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20110315/wl_nm/us_nuclearchernobyl

I would sell any stocks that have any exposure to Fukushima, or in companies that plan to build reactors any time soon.

All of this will be revisited.

[MannyIsGod]

I would think it would have been common sense to plan for the tsunami on a plant in such a location.

[Agloco]

I would think it would have been common sense to plan for the tsunami on a plant in such a location.

They did, it was just bigger than they had anticipated.

That's the problem with "preparing" for disasters. It really makes me chuckle then I hear my fellow scientists say that they've got we worst case scenario all worked out.

Yeah right. At the end of the day we have no clue what might happen.

[LnGrrrR]

3 comical pathetic retarded things the damn Japanese govmt/nuclear company keep repeating:
1) Radiation levels dropped as the day went by - Of course, it just means the radiation has spread out to the atmosphere
2) Stay indoors - that is really gonna help??
3) The wind is blowing away from Japan - :pctoss

Depends on the type of radiation. If it's alpha or beta, staying indoors would help. If it's gamma, then no, unless your home happens to be a bunker.

[cheguevara]

do you really think the nuclear plants in Cali are ready for the BIG ONE that most scientists say has 99% chance of happening in the next 20 years?

nope. With the right lobbying anything can get done.

[Agloco]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20110315/wl_nm/us_nuclearchernobyl

I would sell any stocks that have any exposure to Fukushima, or in companies that plan to build reactors any time soon.

All of this will be revisited.

Yep yep.

Is there an investment that lets you short entire markets (like the Nikkei)?

[boutons_deux]

"If there's a complete loss of containment [and thus the water inside], it can catch fire. There's a huge amount of radioactivity inside – far more than is inside the reactors. The damaged reactors are less likely to spread the same vast amounts of radiation that Chernobyl did, but a spent-fuel pool fire could very well produce damage similar to or even greater than Chernobyl."

You have to ask, what kind of numbskull would put a waste “pond” for spent fuel right above the reactor of a nuclear plant, thus insuring that in the event of a meltdown, not only would the core of the reactor blow up into the environment, but also all of the spent fuel from prior years? All that "Six Sigma" quality culture stuff tauted at GE and they came up with this?

I don’t know. I heard about those waste “pools” in the past, and always assumed they were somewhere on the plant grounds away from the reactor itself, but now it turns out they put the damned things right in the line of fire of any meltdown.

http://www.truth-out.org/print/68465

[LnGrrrR]

According to this article: http://www.mysouthwestga.com/news/story.aspx?list=~%5Cnews%5Clists%5Clocal%20and%20s tate&id=592890

Some sailers off the coast of Japan experienced alpha and beta particle contamination.


He says there are two types of radioactive material, and the crew members in Japan were exposed to radioactive particles (alpha and beta) which resemble dust.

[Agloco]

Depends on the type of radiation. If it's alpha or beta, staying indoors would help. If it's gamma, then no, unless your home happens to be a bunker.

It reduces the radiation burden quite a bit actually, despite most of the radiation coming from gammas. Most of the isotopes found in a cloud like this will come to ground fairly quickly and stay outdoors.

Shielding isn't the only effective method of reducing radiation exposure. Time, distance and shielding all work. In the example of staying indoors, it's helping with the distance.

[CosmicCowboy]

Yep yep.

Is there an investment that lets you short entire markets (like the Nikkei)?

You are a little late. They have probably already taken the bulk of the hit.

[LnGrrrR]

It reduces the radiation burden quite a bit actually, despite most of the radiation coming from gammas. Most of the isotopes found in a cloud like this will come to ground fairly quickly and stay outdoors.

Shielding isn't the only effective method of reducing radiation exposure. Time, distance and shielding all work. In the example of staying indoors, it's helping with the distance.

Agloco, good point. I just was looking at the "shielding" aspect.

[MannyIsGod]

They did, it was just bigger than they had anticipated.

That's the problem with "preparing" for disasters. It really makes me chuckle then I hear my fellow scientists say that they've got we worst case scenario all worked out.

Yeah right. At the end of the day we have no clue what might happen.

The really bad thing is that this isn't the worst case scenario, IMO. I'd have to imagine that a 9+ quake on many of those faults is well within the realm of possibilities and many of those quakes can happen at very shallow depths.

I see nothing in this quake that should not have been seen as anything but inevitable. The tsunami heights were not unreasonable given historic tsunamis. I know what you're saying, but I just view this as inadequate engineering given the location of the plant.

[baseline bum]

do you really think the nuclear plants in Cali are ready for the BIG ONE that most scientists say has 99% chance of happening in the next 20 years?

nope. With the right lobbying anything can get done.

I thought the prediction was a 90% chance of a 7.0+ on the San Andreas in the next 40 years.

[Agloco]

According to this article: http://www.mysouthwestga.com/news/story.aspx?list=~%5Cnews%5Clists%5Clocal%20and%20s tate&id=592890

Some sailers off the coast of Japan experienced alpha and beta particle contamination.

Not surprising. All of these isotopes decay in various manners. You have iodine, cesium, etc.

Alphas are particularly dangerous if inhaled. They've got an RBE about 20x that of gammas. No more flights in that area for these guys.

One thing though. None of these reports ever give any numbers........ this is kinda meaningless without some context.

[LnGrrrR]

They did, it was just bigger than they had anticipated.

That's the problem with "preparing" for disasters. It really makes me chuckle then I hear my fellow scientists say that they've got we worst case scenario all worked out.

Yeah right. At the end of the day we have no clue what might happen.

And as I said upthread, no one actually builds the "worst-case scenario", because it costs way too much.

People end up preparing for the "Most realistic worst-case scenario" instead.

[Cry Havoc]

http://i2.ytimg.com/vi/FKhxKqnyxRU/0.jpg

As long as they stay away from this they should be fine. That toilet water might taste yummy, but it makes you sick as hell.

[LnGrrrR]

Not an actual number, but at least some sort of metric in this Times article:


The U.S. Navy is no stranger to nuclear power. As of March 2010, the organization has operated 82 nuclear-powered ships with 103 reactors on ships and submarines. So when the tests confirmed that its team of 17 naval helicopter crew became exposed to almost a month's worth of nuclear radiation in just one hour– it knew what to do.

Read more: http://newsfeed.time.com/2011/03/15/u-s-military-exposed-to-radiation-in-japan-though-officials-say-danger-is-minimal/#ixzz1GgT1M000

(And, interesting note, that "Read more" part came automatically when I highlighted the text and copied.)

[cheguevara]

I thought the prediction was a 90% chance of a 7.0+ on the San Andreas in the next 40 years.

you are probably right.

[LnGrrrR]

http://i2.ytimg.com/vi/FKhxKqnyxRU/0.jpg

As long as they stay away from this they should be fine. That toilet water might taste yummy, but it makes you sick as hell.

I was just thinking this morning about how many jokes were going to be made about Japan being the setting for the next Fallout game.

[LnGrrrR]

Oh hey, there is a number buried further down the article.


"The maximum potential radiation dose received by any ship's force personnel aboard USS RONALD REAGAN when it passed through the area was less than the radiation exposure received from about one month of exposure to natural background radiation from sources such as rocks, soil, and the sun, or less than 25 milliREM."

Read more: http://newsfeed.time.com/2011/03/15/u-s-military-exposed-to-radiation-in-japan-though-officials-say-danger-is-minimal/#ixzz1GgTbcNtV

[Wild Cobra]

I thought the prediction was a 90% chance of a 7.0+ on the San Andreas in the next 40 years.
I thought it was a 46% in 30 years.

The percentage doesn't really matter as it is a guess. The fact is that three of the four major placing in the "ring of fire" have had serious quakes. Just stands to reason there is a much higher probability San Andreas will go soon.

[Agloco]

The really bad thing is that this isn't the worst case scenario, IMO. I'd have to imagine that a 9+ quake on many of those faults is well within the realm of possibilities and many of those quakes can happen at very shallow depths.

I see nothing in this quake that should not have been seen as anything but inevitable. The tsunami heights were not unreasonable given historic tsunamis. I know what you're saying, but I just view this as inadequate engineering given the location of the plant.

Oh I agree with you. I'm not gonna pretend to be up to speed with the specifications of Japaneese nuclear power plants, but I know that here we prepare plants based on ground accelerations. As such, these sorts of phenomena are strong functions of the distance to the epicenter of the event as well as geologic constraints.

Understand though, that there's a logarithmic falloff in the likelihood of such an event based on the strength of the quake (ie a magnitude 8 is about 10 times more likely than a magnitude 9, etc etc.). You're basically playing the odds. No disrespect to the Japanese, but they crapped out on this one.

[Wild Cobra]

Oh hey, there is a number buried further down the article.

I heard someplace also the radiation was less that the output of coal power plants also. Maybe in increased over night, but that's a comment about a day or two old.

[Cry Havoc]

And NO, the coastal US plants are NOT prepared for anything this catastrophic. They probably wouldn't handle anything over a 7.

[hater]

GlobalPost: Do these doses endanger their health, or are they below thresholds that would cause a problem?
The probability of these workers getting cancer is dramatically increasing, because the doses they receive in a day are higher than what they get in a year. For every 250 rem received, there will be a cancer. That’s pretty well defined. So if one person picks up 2.5 rem, for every hundred people, one of them will get a cancer. That’s just a statistical crapshoot.


so if this guy is for real if 1000 ppl pickup .25 rems 1 gets cancer

and if so if 100,000 ppl pickup .0025rems 1 gets cancer

[Agloco]

Oh hey, there is a number buried further down the article.


"The maximum potential radiation dose received by any ship's force personnel aboard USS RONALD REAGAN when it passed through the area was less than the radiation exposure received from about one month of exposure to natural background radiation from sources such as rocks, soil, and the sun, or less than 25 milliREM."

Ah, missed this.

Yeah, this is something to be cognizant of, but not something that should hamper relief efforts in the sort term.

The do need to be on top of each and every crewmembers total exposure though. For context, in gauging a radiation workers exposure: Here in the US we use a total of 5000 mrem as a total effective dose equivalent limit annually.

[Cry Havoc]

Japan crisis exceeds Three Mile Island, expert says; no-fly zone declared

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/42084187/ns/world_news-asiapacific/

I suspected as much a long time ago, but it's chilling to see it in print.

[LnGrrrR]

Ah, missed this.

Yeah, this is something to be cognizant of, but not something that should hamper relief efforts in the sort term.

The do need to be on top of each and every crewmembers total exposure though. For context, in gauging a radiation workers exposure: Here in the US we use a total of 5000 mrem as a total effective dose equivalent limit annually.

If anyone should know about radiation exposure besides experts, the military should. Heck, even the small amount I know comes from annual Chem/Nuke/Bio Warfare training.

They have already been talking about how crews that are in the area are going through decon lines.

[Cry Havoc]

"One reactor shield might be compromised; holes send radioactivity from used rods outside"

[Agloco]

GlobalPost: Do these doses endanger their health, or are they below thresholds that would cause a problem?
The probability of these workers getting cancer is dramatically increasing, because the doses they receive in a day are higher than what they get in a year. For every 250 rem received, there will be a cancer. That’s pretty well defined. So if one person picks up 2.5 rem, for every hundred people, one of them will get a cancer. That’s just a statistical crapshoot.


so if this guy is for real if 1000 ppl pickup .25 rems 1 gets cancer

and if so if 100,000 ppl pickup .0025rems 1 gets cancer

Yes and no. You have to include "on average", and even then there's a few qualifiers based on the exact dose/exposure rate.

The stochastic effects of radiation are really hard to quantify for obvious reasons (they're random after all). These models are based on limited data too. The exact effects are also a strong function of the dose rate and length of exposure.

We'd really need some more information about how long/fast each of those workers are being exposed.

[Agloco]

Japan crisis exceeds Three Mile Island, expert says; no-fly zone declared

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/42084187/ns/world_news-asiapacific/

I suspected as much a long time ago, but it's chilling to see it in print.

Chilling indeed. I heard one report of a 400 mrem reading. If that's the case, there bigger trouble than they're letting on. That's quite significant.


If anyone should know about radiation exposure besides experts, the military should. Heck, even the small amount I know comes from annual Chem/Nuke/Bio Warfare training.

They have already been talking about how crews that are in the area are going through decon lines.

I have not doubt that they're on top of this. Some of my colleagues are no doubt in the zone (or on their way) as we speak giving advice and reinforcing training on the fly.

If they remember what was taught (no one likes to listen to radiation safety and physics lectures though....:lol) they'll be fine.

[CosmicCowboy]

Damn...talk about admitting you are fucked...

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2011/03/15/japanese-nuclear-panic-rises-agency-says-radiation-leaking-atmosphere/

Nuclear officials say they may seek U.S. and Japanese military help to spray water from helicopters into an overheating spent fuel storage pool at the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear plant.
Tokyo Electric Power says it may use helicopters because of the risk of radiation contamination from approaching the pool directly. Air drops may also be more effective.


Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/world/2011/03/15/japanese-nuclear-panic-rises-agency-says-radiation-leaking-atmosphere/#ixzz1GgaYgi6z

[LnGrrrR]

Our base wasn't named as an Incident Response Base, but I assume if shit goes down it might be all hands on deck.

[Cry Havoc]

I think we can pretty safely say that, monetarily speaking, the earthquake/tsunami/reactor are going to rank in the top 3 costliest disasters since we started record keeping, and may very well surpass both Katrina and Chernobyl. It's scary to think how much damage this will deal to the Japanese economy.

[Cry Havoc]

Our base wasn't named as an Incident Response Base, but I assume if shit goes down it might be all hands on deck.

I don't know if there are any preparations you could make, but if you can, I'd start making them. Hawaii (and Alaska) are obviously closer than any other US state by a wide margin. You guys could be in the pipe if things get really bad. Which appears to be happening.

[LnGrrrR]

I don't know if there are any preparations you could make, but if you can, I'd start making them. Hawaii (and Alaska) are obviously closer than any other US state by a wide margin. You guys could be in the pipe if things get really bad. Which appears to be happening.

Not really sure what we could do. We are on an island after all. :lol And being in the military, I can't evacuate until we get an official order. (Of course, my wife and kid could evacuate in advance, they just wouldn't get paid unless they waited for the official order.)

[RandomGuy]

Yep yep.

Is there an investment that lets you short entire markets (like the Nikkei)?

Most probably a derivative of some sort. Some of the companies are traded in the US as well, offering a direct chance to short them.

I would start investing in US/Korean automakers.

In the cold hard calculous of finance, this event is probably going to HIGHLY disrupt Japanese car makers. The obvious beneficiary of that is anyone competing with them.

That and anything else the Japanese make.

Given that car buyers tend to stick with brands, this would mean a long-term shift.

[Cry Havoc]

Not really sure what we could do. We are on an island after all. :lol And being in the military, I can't evacuate until we get an official order. (Of course, my wife and kid could evacuate in advance, they just wouldn't get paid unless they waited for the official order.)

Ah, I thought you were talking about getting called up to head over there.

I think we can safely classify this as at least a 6 on the International Nuclear Event Scale. If things deteriorate further, it's probably going to be pushing a 7.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Nuclear_Event_Scale

[Cry Havoc]

Most probably a derivative of some sort. Some of the companies are traded in the US as well, offering a direct chance to short them.

I would start investing in US/Korean automakers.

In the cold hard calculous of finance, this event is probably going to HIGHLY disrupt Japanese car makers. The obvious beneficiary of that is anyone competing with them.

That and anything else the Japanese make.

Given that car buyers tend to stick with brands, this would mean a long-term shift.

That's a really good idea. The entire economy of Japan could be pushed into a depression from this. Chernobyl seriously accelerated the fall of the Soviet Union.

[Agloco]

Damn...talk about admitting you are fucked...

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2011/03/15/japanese-nuclear-panic-rises-agency-says-radiation-leaking-atmosphere/

Nuclear officials say they may seek U.S. and Japanese military help to spray water from helicopters into an overheating spent fuel storage pool at the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear plant.
Tokyo Electric Power says it may use helicopters because of the risk of radiation contamination from approaching the pool directly. Air drops may also be more effective.


Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/world/2011/03/15/japanese-nuclear-panic-rises-agency-says-radiation-leaking-atmosphere/#ixzz1GgaYgi6z

:depressed:depressed

Yeah, this is definitely not good.

[Agloco]

Our base wasn't named as an Incident Response Base, but I assume if shit goes down it might be all hands on deck.

Where are you at?

[LnGrrrR]

Ah, I thought you were talking about getting called up to head over there.

I think we can safely classify this as at least a 6 on the International Nuclear Event Scale. If things deteriorate further, it's probably going to be pushing a 7.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Nuclear_Event_Scale

Kinda sorta. Right now, our base isn't tasked. But if things go worse, we might be. With these kinds of events, it's hard to predict. If I do end up going (which is a very low likelihood right now), then I'll assume we'll be limited to certain shifts and decon our chem gear between them.

[LnGrrrR]

Where are you at?

Joint Base Pearl Harbor Hickam.

[Cry Havoc]

Kinda sorta. Right now, our base isn't tasked. But if things go worse, we might be. With these kinds of events, it's hard to predict. If I do end up going (which is a very low likelihood right now), then I'll assume we'll be limited to certain shifts and decon our chem gear between them.

:tu Best of luck. I really hope you don't get sent over. Even with safety precautions, anything that deals with free radicals is nasty stuff.

[Wild Cobra]

I think we can pretty safely say that, monetarily speaking, the earthquake/tsunami/reactor are going to rank in the top 3 costliest disasters since we started record keeping, and may very well surpass both Katrina and Chernobyl. It's scary to think how much damage this will deal to the Japanese economy.
I agree with that on the cost factor. As for nuclear incident, I think it will go down as the fourth. Between Windscale and Three Mile island.

from The world’s worst nuclear accidents (http://www.metro.us/newyork/international/article/802277--the-world-s-worst-nuclear-accidents):


» Chernobyl, Soviet Union (now Ukraine), April 26, 1986

The No.4 reactor at the Chernobyl nuclear plant in the former Soviet Union exploded, causing the worst nuclear disaster in history. The explosion killed 30 people on the spot, released more than eight tons of highly radioactive material, contaminated 60,000 square km of land, and caused more than 3.2 million people to be affected by radiation.

» Kyshtym, Soviet Union (now Russia), Sept. 29, 1957

The cooling system failed, causing a non-nuclear explosion of dried waste. The Soviet government was forced to evacuate 10,000 people in the affected area after reports surfaced of people's skin literally falling off. The radiation is estimated to have directly caused the deaths of 200 people due to cancer.

» Windscale Fire, Great Britain, Oct. 10, 1957

A fire broke out, destroying the core and releasing a cloud of radioactive material. The sale of milk and other produces from nearby farms were banned for a month. 200 people later developed cancer and died from exposure to radiation.

» Three Mile Island, United States, March 28, 1979

The cooling system failed, causing a partial core meltdown. It was the United States’ worst nuclear accident; it forced the evacuation of at least 150,000 local residents.

» Tokaimura, Japan, Sept. 30, 1999

A batch of highly enriched uranium was wrongly operated in a precipitation tank, causing a radiation accident that killed two workers. Nearly 100 workers and local residents were hospitalized for exposure to radiation.

Considering people were already evacuated or dead from the area when the reactors started having problems, I think radiation related deaths will be minimal.

[Wild Cobra]

That's a really good idea. The entire economy of Japan could be pushed into a depression from this. Chernobyl seriously accelerated the fall of the Soviet Union.
I don't think this will be as serious of an economic hit for japan as you guys do. It's only a real small segment of their industry and population affected.

Hope I'm right, but know I could be wrong.

[Cry Havoc]

I agree with that on the cost factor. As for nuclear incident, I think it will go down as the fourth. Between Windscale and Three Mile island.

from The world’s worst nuclear accidents (http://www.metro.us/newyork/international/article/802277--the-world-s-worst-nuclear-accidents):


Considering people were already evacuated or dead from the area when the reactors started having problems, I think radiation related deaths will be minimal.

The French Nuclear committee has already rated this a 6 on the INES (passing both 3 Mile and Windscale) and have stated that it's second only to Chernobyl in terms of how devastating the effects are going to be. Though not much is known about Kyshtym, so that muddies things up a bit.

http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/world/9016897/fukushima-upgraded-on-nuclear-accident-scale/

[Cry Havoc]

I don't think this will be as serious of an economic hit for japan as you guys do. It's only a real small segment of their industry and population affected.

Hope I'm right, but know I could be wrong.

Cleanup from radiation leaks is almost unrivaled in the expense it inflicts on the host nation. To say nothing of the fact that they have just lost a significant amount of power generation for their country that they are also going to have to replace.

[Wild Cobra]

The French Nuclear committee has already rated this a 6 on the INES (passing both 3 Mile and Windscale) and have stated that it's second only to Chernobyl in terms of how devastating the effects are going to be. Though not much is known about Kyshtym, so that muddies things up a bit.

http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/world/9016897/fukushima-upgraded-on-nuclear-accident-scale/
I realize this. Didn't have those facts you just laid out, but came to a similar conclusion already, figuring it is definitely a top 3, possible 1st as time goes by.

That said, I think the Japanese have a better mindset for keeping this from impacting their economy as much as feared.

Depression... I say no, partially because they will have need to hire people for cleanups.

[hater]

no way this beats Chernobyl

Chernobyl was hell on earth

[Wild Cobra]

no way this beats Chernobyl

Chernobyl was hell on earth
I said "possible."

I have an open mind. Why don't you?

[Cry Havoc]

I said "possible."

I have an open mind. Why don't you?

It's basically impossible for this to become worse than Chernobyl. The difference being that in Chernobyl, the core actually exploded and there was no shielding. Anything that got out of the main plant was flung into the air as high and long as possible.

The core isn't going to explode here, it's just melting down. Even the worst case scenario here still probably doesn't put it within arm's reach of how bad Chernobyl was.

[hater]

I guess if they fail to release the pressure it would go off like a pressure cooker and maybe make the other reactors to go off in domino effect. I guess everythign is possible at this point.

[Agloco]

I guess if they fail to release the pressure it would go off like a pressure cooker and maybe make the other reactors to go off in domino effect. I guess everythign is possible at this point.

If memory serves, in this type of setup each reactor is an independent entity. No dominoes to worry about.

[Agloco]

I said "possible."

I have an open mind. Why don't you?

The reality is that you can't compare this to Chernobyl, for many reasons.

[CosmicCowboy]

It's basically impossible for this to become worse than Chernobyl. The difference being that in Chernobyl, the core actually exploded and there was no shielding. Anything that got out of the main plant was flung into the air as high and long as possible.

The core isn't going to explode here, it's just melting down. Even the worst case scenario here still probably doesn't put it within arm's reach of how bad Chernobyl was.

Actually, the problem at Chernobyl wasn't as much the explosion but rather the carbon blocks burning so hot afterwards and carrying the radioactive heavy metals away in the heat plume/smoke.

[Wild Cobra]

It's basically impossible for this to become worse than Chernobyl. The difference being that in Chernobyl, the core actually exploded and there was no shielding. Anything that got out of the main plant was flung into the air as high and long as possible.

The core isn't going to explode here, it's just melting down. Even the worst case scenario here still probably doesn't put it within arm's reach of how bad Chernobyl was.
I agree for the most part. As much as I believe japan is being honest about this, we really don't know. Improbably, but possible that something unforeseen can happen. I simply disagree with "impossible."

[Agloco]

Actually, the problem at Chernobyl wasn't as much the explosion but rather the carbon blocks burning so hot afterwards and carrying the radioactive heavy metals away in the heat plume/smoke.

Yeah the graphite fire complicated matters quite a bit. Fortunately, this reactor isn't built the same way.

[hater]

Winds are changing...

http://img.thesun.co.uk/multimedia/archive/01272/SNN1605GXB2-682_1272707a.jpg

[hater]

WC might have been right. Another fire but this time near spent fuel rods. Those are in no containment

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/rest-of-world/Fuel-cooling-pools-add-to-Japan-worries/articleshow/7715287.cms

Fuel-cooling pools add to Japan worries

Even as workers race to prevent the radioactive cores of the damaged nuclear reactors in Japan from melting down, concerns are growing that nearby pools holding spent fuel rods could pose an even greater danger.

The pools, which sit on the top level of the reactor buildings and keep spent fuel submerged in water, have lost their cooling systems and the Japanese have been unable to take emergency steps because of the multiplying crises.

By late Tuesday, the water meant to cool spent fuel rods in the No 4 reactor was boiling, Japan's nuclear watchdog said. If the water evaporates and the rods run dry, they could overheat and catch fire, potentially spreading radioactive materials in dangerous clouds.

Shigekatsu Oomukai, a spokesperson for the Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency, said the substantial capacity of the pool meant that the water in the pool was unlikely to evaporate soon. But he said workers were having difficulty reaching the pool to cool it, because of the high temperature of the water.

Temperatures appeared to be rising in the spent fuel pools at two other reactors at the plant, No 5 and No 6, said Yukio Edano, the chief cabinet secretary. The pools are a worry at the reactors at the Fukushima Daiichi plant because at least two of the reactors have lost their roofs in explosions, exposing the spent fuel pools to the atmosphere. By contrast, reactors have strong containment vessels that stand a better chance of bottling up radiation from a meltdown of the fuel in the reactor core.

If any of the spent fuel rods in the pools do indeed catch fire, nuclear experts say, the high heat would loft the radiation in clouds that would spread the radioactivity. "It's worse than a meltdown," said David A Lochbaum, a nuclear engineer at the Union of Concerned Scientists. "The reactor is inside thick walls, and the spent fuel of Reactors 1 and 3 is out in the open."

A spokesman for the company that runs the stricken reactors said that the spent fuel at the Fukushima Daiichi and Daini plants had been left uncooled since after the quake. The company, TEPCO, has not been able to cool the spent fuel pools because power has been knocked out. "There may be heating up," the spokesman said.

[Cry Havoc]

:depressed

Just keeps getting worse.

[LnGrrrR]

Winds are changing...

http://img.thesun.co.uk/multimedia/archive/01272/SNN1605GXB2-682_1272707a.jpg

This expert notes that Hawaii is in the path of that. I don't think the US particularly cares for that scenario either. :lol

[Viva Las Espuelas]

Anderson Cooper just reported all workers of the plant have suspended emergency operations because of high level of radiation.......................

[Agloco]

Anderson Cooper just reported all workers of the plant have suspended emergency operations because of high level of radiation.......................

Epically bad if true.....

[Viva Las Espuelas]

Epically bad if true.....
some japanese official made that statement

[Viva Las Espuelas]

yukio edano; Japanese chief cabinet secretary

[Viva Las Espuelas]

suspended AND evacuated.

[Chomag]

some japanese official made that statement

Their prime minister made the statement I believe. Looks like they said fuck it and left. I hope it was only something just lost in translation though.

[Agloco]

Their prime minister made the statement I believe. Looks like they said fuck it and left. I hope it was only something just lost in translation though.


suspended AND evacuated.

Man o man.....gotta tune in now.

[Viva Las Espuelas]

now msnbc is the only thing live. they say "temporarily" suspend.

[Viva Las Espuelas]

and even saying you're "temporarily" suspending high levels of radiation from escaping is a little unsettling.

[CosmicCowboy]

Get real.

That place is cooked.

They are gonna burn dry and melt down and we are about to find out if a GE mark I containment vessel works as advertised.

even if the containment vessels work on the live reactors the spent fuel rods will start burning tomorrow and sending bad bad shit downwind.

[Viva Las Espuelas]

Any who, I heard something on Headline News, not Foe News, this morning and it was stated that GE designed all the reactors at that plant. I haven't verified the info but it kinda stood out to me. Hmm. I'm interested to see what comes of that, if it's true. Very interested.

[Viva Las Espuelas]

amount of radiation emitted from only reactor 4

"the amount in a year that causes cancer.......the plant was putting out 4 times that in a single hour"