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  1. 11-02-2020 #1
    Spurtacular
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    Should've did this two months ago before Hack Silver tightened his numbers to try and save some face. But even now, it's looking pretty bad for him for when Trump wins.

    Hack Silver's Odds:

    "States To Watch"

    AZ Trump 32/100
    CO Trump 4/100
    FL Trump 32/100
    GA Trump 41/100
    IA Trump 61/100
    ME Trump 10/100
    MI Trump 5/100
    MN Trump 4/100
    NV Trump 13/100
    NH Trump 11/100
    NM Trump 2/100
    NC Trump 35/100
    OH Trump 55/100
    PA Trump 15/100
    TX Trump 61/100
    VA Trump 1/100
    WI Trump 6/100

    Other States

    AL Trump 98/100
    AK Trump 85/100
    AR Trump >99/100
    CA Trump <1/100
    CT Trump <1/100
    DE Trump <1/100
    DC Trump <1/100
    HI Trump <1/100
    ID Trump >99/100
    IL Trump <1/100
    IN Trump 96/100
    KS Trump 97/100
    KY Trump 98/100
    LA Trump 97/100
    ME 1st Trump 3/100
    ME 2nd Trump 42/100
    MA Trump <1/100
    MD Trump <1/100
    MS Trump 92/100
    MO Trump 93/100
    MT Trump 85/100
    NE Trump >99/100
    NE 1st Trump 96/100
    NE 2nd Trump 26/100
    NE 3rd Tump >99/100
    NJ Trump <1/100
    NY Trump <1/100
    ND Trump 98/100
    OK Trump >99/100
    OR Trump 2/100
    RI Trump <1/100
    SC Trump 91/100
    SD Trump 95/100
    TN Trump 97/100
    UT Trump 96/100
    VT Trump <1/100
    WA Trump <1/100
    WV Trump >99/100
    WY Trump >99/100
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  2. 11-02-2020 #2
    Will Hunting
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    Silver has gotten 144/150 states correct in the last 3 elections. Which poll aggregator/modeler has done better over the same period?
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  3. 11-02-2020 #3
    ElNono
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    More concerned with OP's supply of copium, tbh... I think Nate will be fine no matter what happens.
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  4. 11-02-2020 #4
    pgardn
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    derp completely misses the entire idea of probability...
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  5. 11-02-2020 #5
    Spurtacular
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    Quote Originally Posted by Will Hunting
    Silver has gotten 144/150 states correct in the last 3 elections. Which poll aggregator/modeler has done better over the same period?
    Based on what? A state being 51/100 or more?
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  6. 11-02-2020 #6
    ChumpDumper
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    Quote Originally Posted by Spurtacular
    Based on what? A state being 51/100 or more?
    What would you base it on, derp?
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  7. 11-02-2020 #7
    Spurminator
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    How was Nate Silver wrong, exactly?

    If a baseball player has a batting average of .200, he's going to get a hit 20% of the time. You wouldn't call his batting average wrong if he got a hit on his next atbat.
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  8. 11-02-2020 #8
    Spurtacular
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    Quote Originally Posted by Spurminator
    How was Nate Silver wrong, exactly?

    If a baseball player has a batting average of .200, he's going to get a hit 20% of the time. You wouldn't call his batting average wrong if he got a hit on his next atbat.
    You're trying.
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  9. 11-02-2020 #9
    ChumpDumper
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    Quote Originally Posted by Will Hunting
    Silver has gotten 144/150 states correct in the last 3 elections. Which poll aggregator/modeler has done better over the same period?
    derp folded instantly
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  10. 11-02-2020 #10
    Will Hunting
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    Quote Originally Posted by Spurtacular
    Based on what? A state being 51/100 or more?
    No based on the projected winner of each state.
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  11. 11-02-2020 #11
    Spurminator
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    Quote Originally Posted by Spurtacular
    You're trying.
    That's not an answer. You don't understand probability.

    No surprise. Not sure why you try engaging an adult conversations, it's like watching a toddler try to hit a MLB fastball.
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  12. 11-02-2020 #12
    Ef-man
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    Originally Posted by spurraider21
    so is steph curry what jimmer fans imagined jimmer would be like
    Originally Posted by drep
    Pretty much.
    Was it nate that gave you the inside information on jimmer?
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  13. 11-02-2020 #13
    Splits
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    Silver's model gives Dennison a 10% chance to win this year. That's the same probability that it rains in LA. Does it ever rain in LA?

    Silver's model gave Dennison a 28% chance to win in 2016. That's the same probability a NFL kicker misses a 40 yarder. Do NFL kickers ever miss 40 yarders?
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  14. 11-02-2020 #14
    pgardn
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    Quote Originally Posted by Spurtacular
    You're trying.
    No he is exactly right.
    You dont understand probability or AVERAGE.
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  15. 11-02-2020 #15
    Spurtacular
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    Not a hack

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  16. 11-02-2020 #16
    Joseph Kony
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    Quote Originally Posted by Spurminator
    That's not an answer. You don't understand probability.

    No surprise. Not sure why you try engaging an adult conversations, it's like watching a toddler try to hit a MLB fastball.
    pretty much derp tries to talk big boy politics but he has about as much understanding of it as a dog has of classic literature
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  17. 11-02-2020 #17
    ElNono
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    I think the confusion stems from derp thinking everybody else is doing his thing of throwing into the wall and hoping it sticks.
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  18. 11-02-2020 #18
    pgardn
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    Quote Originally Posted by Splits
    Silver's model gives Dennison a 10% chance to win this year. That's the same probability that it rains in LA. Does it ever rain in LA?

    Silver's model gave Dennison a 28% chance to win in 2016. That's the same probability a NFL kicker misses a 40 yarder. Do NFL kickers ever miss 40 yarders?
    No you see you Silver cant do that... because hes playing it both ways, according to derp, by giving probabilities.
    By derp's reckoning you call it or you dont. And derp actually invented quantum mechanics so he knows.
    Hurricane paths with probability cones, they are out, call the exact lat and long or its useless.
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  19. 11-02-2020 #19
    Splits
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    Quote Originally Posted by Spurtacular
    Not a hack

    So you took the prediction weeks before the election:



    instead of the model's final prediction:



    You're definitely not a hack
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  20. 11-02-2020 #20
    Spurtacular
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    Don't hate on Nate for his get out the vote efforts

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  21. 11-02-2020 #21
    Reck
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    Quote Originally Posted by Spurtacular
    Not a hack

    lol you're cherry picking. You're taking probability from early october.
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  22. 11-02-2020 #22
    spurraider21
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    Quote Originally Posted by Spurtacular
    Not a hack

    now show what he had the odds at on election day
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  23. 11-02-2020 #23
    ChumpDumper
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    Quote Originally Posted by Splits
    So you took the prediction weeks before the election:



    instead of the model's final prediction:



    You're definitely not a hack
    derp s up every single time.
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  24. 11-02-2020 #24
    spurraider21
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    derp just flailing angrily at this point
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  25. 11-02-2020 #25
    Spurtacular
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    Quote Originally Posted by Splits
    So you took the prediction weeks before the election:



    instead of the model's final prediction:



    You're definitely not a hack
    Yea, they always tighten it to hedge on their potential humiliation.

    Like I said, I should've made this poll two months ago; Chumpettes would've been doing cartwheels.
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