Reply With Quote
UBI, employment insurance, mortgage/debt moratoriums, the USG stepping in as a buyer of last result to keep businesses afloat. Time to get really creative to avoid mass homelessness and starvation during a pandemic/demand shock.
Markets will love this
UBI, employment insurance, mortgage/debt moratoriums, the USG stepping in as a buyer of last result to keep businesses afloat. Time to get really creative to avoid mass homelessness and starvation during a pandemic/demand shock.
Yeah the Battlenet servers are going to be packed.
Fed can do a lot, but this seems well beyond their ability to really mitigate.
The Fed Backfires: Shock and Awe Rate Drop to 0%, Emergency Bond Buying Program Leads to Limit Down Drops in US Equity Futures as Real World Coronavirus Damage Worsens
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2020...e-worsens.html
Separately, fresh data coming out of China showed the economy has been hit harder than expected by the coronavirus outbreak.
Retail sales plunged 20.5% in the January-to-February period from a year earlier, much worse than the forecast 0.8% rise by analysts polled by Reuters, according to the National Bureau of Statistics on Monday.
Industrial output also fell 13.5% during the same period, while fixed asset investment plunged 24.5%, both widely missing estimates.A data point from Norway: my brother in law has a business – supplier to the fish and meat industry, selling everything from gloves to machines – everything. A significant portion of what he sells comes from China. Normally when he reorders the delivery time is three months, now it’s year. A year.
He’s in contact with colleagues and associates in the food business and it’s the same for them. So what happens when the butchers, slaughterhouses, fish farms go empty for gloves, masks, aprons, etc? Which is definitely going to happen. They’ll have to shut down. According to my brother in law, the factories that supply him from China, when they open again, and they may already be in the process of reopening, their first priority is to resupply China, and that may take a year. Europe is going to have to wait.
One last point – my brother in law is already getting calls from want to be customers who are out of supplies, and he’s turning them down. He has to.Today, it is not Wall Street financial ins utions, but companies in a variety of industries that are stressed, as a simultaneous supply and demand shock means they need to tap credit lines to pay their bills. With flights halted, supply chains disrupted and the consumer economy gutted, companies are trying to stockpile cash, whether they need it immediately or not.
It’s one thing for the aircraft manufacturer Boeing to draw down its entire $13.8bn credit line. It’s another for multiple big corporations to draw theirs at the same time. Still, as a recent Credit Suisse report pointed out, “we now have a global banking system where all major banks have to pre-fund 30-day outflows” with high-quality liquid asset portfolios. This is one important reason why these corporate funding stresses haven’t caused a real time banking crisis in the way that the 2008 subprime crisis did.I will stop posting quotes there.Consider just the airlines. Delta, the strongest large US carrier, is already making barely-coded requests for a bailout. As our Clive observed by e-mail:
I can’t see any international travel on any sort of scale for the next six months — possibly a year — save for repatriation flights laid on by governments. The entire passenger aviation industry will have to be nationalised and put into a state of suspended animation. Bilateral arrangements may start to creep back in on a very limited basis where there’s large and largely unstoppable flows of people by other modalities (US to Canada and Mexico, U.K. to France and the RoI — that sort of thing).
The data is all bad, and it will get worse.
One final thing:
Health and the economy are closely linked. The correlation between per-capita GDP and health (life expectancy) is essentially perfect. If the covid-19 pandemic leads to a global economy collapse, many more lives will be lost than covid-19 would ever be able to claim. (12/12)
Last edited by RandomGuy; 03-16-2020 at 10:21 AM.
Damn you're trite
The slow, too small, and too narrow sought-after responses don’t merely reflect being in a fog of information gaps. The speed and aggressivenesses of the lockdowns, and their drastic impact make the broad outlines all too clear. Our supposed leaders are in a fog of denial. They cannot fathom that so much of what they had come to accept as the normal and proper operation of our system will crumble if radical action isn’t taken soon, yet that very radical action will also result in changes they deem inconceivable, or worse, aesthetically unacceptable.
As we found out in the financial crisis, in tightly coupled systems, events can propagate across the various elements too quickly for anyone to intervene and limit the damage. The relentless drive for highly efficient systems, from just-in-time manufacturing to radically limiting inpatient time so as to reduce the number of hospital beds per capita, have created fragile systems that are now being tested to destruction. And we are learning, to our collective detriment, how many are wanting.
Having unused spare capacity is a drag on quarterly ROI, we can't afford it.
https://www.barrons.com/articles/the...ng-51584327196
Economists are starting to whisper the "D" word again.
I don't see how they're not screaming it. We're facing the closure of a ton of small businesses and a lot of people are going to be put out of work. The restaurant industry alone is headed towards catastrophe.
This is where the problem we have had of people living paycheck to paycheck makes social safety nets screamingly obvious.
2+ weeks UBI should be a no brainer right now. We're making businesses choose between paying their people or shuttering.
Butsocialism
Congress/Trump went too quick,,,too quick on the 8 billion, too quick on that silly bill the Senate is now considering.2+ weeks UBI should be a no brainer right now. We're making businesses choose between paying their people or shuttering.
But
But, they won't sit down together. Still playing political games. Manuchin is the telephone conduit twixt Trump & Pelosi.
More like 6 months ubi. This isn't going away any time soon. Mnuchin says we're in the second inning but really it's only the first batter walking up to the plate.2+ weeks UBI should be a no brainer right now. We're making businesses choose between paying their people or shuttering.
But
There won’t be any UBI, in the end well see a bailout to large businesses that congress promises will trickle down to employees and never does.
How can anyone see the way this is being handled and think the solution is more private sector less government.
(UBI) was in the 8 billion & in that silly the Senate has now. But, NOBODY, D & R alike want to face (UBI). The mere thought is repugnant. They'd rather cut off their right arm & talk to each other thru Manuchin on the phone. So, you got the 8 billion & the silly .
They don’t want to talk about it because the people financing their campaigns (D and R) don’t want it. Plain and simple.
Oh I know there won't be. And small business nationwide will be completely gutted while big business gets all the spoils from Dear Leader, McConnell, and Pelosi.
For what boutons calls Human-Americans it's going to be like "oh, and chicken wings for Bubbles."
& (they) don't want to share the wealth. That good wealth. They want to peter-it-out thru the 8 billion & silly . That's why those (2) actions went so damn quick. & I don't ya's that at-the-time, but, you all called me everything but, an old-white-man.
Me
The Petro-states are going to get hammered. Saudi-Russian production war in the middle of a massive downturn in demand...
Democrats won't need to implement a fracking ban to stop the practice. Perversely, they will have to start flaring all the natgas they are producing.
This is looking like a negative feedback loop that makes 2009 seem mild. That was just an asset bubble. This looks like an unraveling.
Hopefully I am wrong about how bad it looks to get.
This is why I’d rather see people who feel fine continue to travel and go to restaurants even if it means this gets dragged out longer.
While it’s great that a slide in the economy probably gets Trump out of office any scenario where small businesses are forced to close down creates something way worse than what we saw in 2008. The government isn’t equipped to handle a major part of the economy shutting down and the politicians in power are only going to use an economic crisis to just divert more wealth to the top with bailouts.
I mean I'm expecting another great depression. Too bad the only FDR Democrat is pretty much done for now.
At least you put Pelosi in the jackpot. Bless-your-heart.
& that [[[big business]]] should have been the first line to prop up, immediately & in broad daylight, TOP OF THEIR LUNGS. They've been raking it in (both ass scratchers) for a decade. But, no, they hunkered down with the rest of us, got smaller, into the fetal position,,,we see them trying to blend in, but, they frankly don't care if we see them like that. That boodle they have is everything.
If you’re going to require restaurants and move theatres to shut down that major major ripple effects that need to also be taken into consideration.
Are you going to force the landlord to hand out rent abatements to the shut down restaurant?
Are you then going to force the bank to not collect interest payments from the landlord?
Are property taxes going to be foregiven too?
Simply shutting down restaurants and other small businesses like some cities are doing without providing any sort of relief is going to be a recipe for disaster.
There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)
Posting Permissions
