#TurnTexasBlue

[Millennial_Messiah]

Obama won Iowa twice, and Ernst’s seat was held by a Democrat for decades prior to the 2014 red waive (when even Colorado Dems couldn’t win a senate race). Democrats won the generic ballot across the house races in Iowa by 4 points in 2018 and picked up two seats, if the same thing happens in 2020 Ernst loses.

Maine being a coin toss. Gideon is up 8-9 points on Collins in all of the polls.

Iowa has trended too conservative. Yes it voted for Obama twice and for Gore and for Clinton twice, but that was then when the Dems had a firm grip on white union voters, not so much these days. The state is too white and un-educated. Everyone I know from there (515 area code) is white, Trump-loving, and doesn't have a bachelor's degree.

As for Maine:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...deon-6928.html

I don't know where you're getting your polling data from. +2.5 for the challenger in the summer before the election is essentially a coin flip. And polls from a couple months ago had Collins up +1 and +2 so it's essentially anyone's game.

[Will Hunting]

Iowa has trended too conservative. Yes it voted for Obama twice and for Gore and for Clinton twice, but that was then when the Dems had a firm grip on white union voters, not so much these days. The state is too white and un-educated. Everyone I know from there (515 area code) is white, Trump-loving, and doesn't have a bachelor's degree.

As for Maine:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...deon-6928.html

I don't know where you're getting your polling data from. +2.5 for the challenger in the summer before the election is essentially a coin flip. And polls from a couple months ago had Collins up +1 and +2 so it's essentially anyone's game.

Right, because I’m sure you know sooooo many people from Iowa :

You didn’t address the fact that Iowa votes in favor of Democrats in 2018, there were clearly 2016 Trump voters who flipped back. If it’s the same political climate again in 2020 that election is a coin toss.

There’s a poll conducted in May on fivethirtyeight that has Gideon up 9 points. The big difference with Collins is that there Karens don’t like her anymore after Kavanaugh and the impeachment vote. Not voting for Trumps impeachment was a strategical gaffe by her, it would have meant nothing but moderates would have fawned over it.

[Millennial_Messiah]

Right, because I’m sure you know sooooo many people from Iowa :

You didn’t address the fact that Iowa votes in favor of Democrats in 2018, there were clearly 2016 Trump voters who flipped back. If it’s the same political climate again in 2020 that election is a coin toss.

There’s a poll conducted in May on fivethirtyeight that has Gideon up 9 points. The big difference with Collins is that there Karens don’t like her anymore after Kavanaugh and the impeachment vote. Not voting for Trumps impeachment was a strategical gaffe by her, it would have meant nothing but moderates would have fawned over it.

"Karens" aren't Me-T(P)ooers, usually. Voting for Trump's impeachment would have been a worse gaffe. Also, if she voted for Trump's impeachment, and against Kavanaugh-- what's the difference between her and Gideon in any case? She's basically reverse Joe Manchin in that case.

There was the 538 poll that had Gideon up 9 and a different poll around the same time that had Collins up 16. Both were outliers and thus thrown out.

2018 was a midterm and the first midterm after the in bent president wins his first term always favors the opposite party. For example, Tester can thank his lucky stars for that. Also Tester for example should be rooting for Trump to win this year so his 2024 re-run bid will be all but a guarantee. Biden winning would break the cycle and put a red wave in 2024 firmly on the table.

[Obi Juan Kenobi]

You could bring Sam Houston back from the dead and run him against Ted Cruz, and Cruz would win by 100,000 votes because of the magic R next to his name.

Interestingly Sam Houston was very disliked politically in his later years due to his unpopular vote against the Kansas-Nebraska Act while he was in the Senate and his refusal to swear allegiance to the Confederacy when Texas succeeded from the Union while Houston was still governor at the time...

[Millennial_Messiah]

Interestingly Sam Houston was very disliked politically in his later years due to his unpopular vote against the Kansas-Nebraska Act while he was in the Senate and his refusal to swear allegiance to the Confederacy when Texas succeeded from the Union while Houston was still governor at the time...

Yes, back when the Democrats were the party of slavery and the (R) was the party of progressivism and integration, obviously on a MUCH smaller scale than today's neo-leftism.

Houston was a Democrat because you had to be a Democrat to win in the South in such times, but he was much more progressive in line with Lincoln, though he couldn't publicly admit it or he could have been lynched. He was a good man.

[Will Hunting]

"Karens" aren't Me-T(P)ooers, usually. Voting for Trump's impeachment would have been a worse gaffe. Also, if she voted for Trump's impeachment, and against Kavanaugh-- what's the difference between her and Gideon in any case? She's basically reverse Joe Manchin in that case.

There was the 538 poll that had Gideon up 9 and a different poll around the same time that had Collins up 16. Both were outliers and thus thrown out.

2018 was a midterm and the first midterm after the in bent president wins his first term always favors the opposite party. For example, Tester can thank his lucky stars for that. Also Tester for example should be rooting for Trump to win this year so his 2024 re-run bid will be all but a guarantee. Biden winning would break the cycle and put a red wave in 2024 firmly on the table.

Link me to the recent poll in May that had Collins up 16 points. The last poll on 538 that had Collins ahead of Gideon was last year. I’m willing to bet you just made that up.

That logic with Tester makes no sense. He won in 2012 with an in bent Democrat at the top of the ticket, which would be the same scenario in 2024 if Biden wins.

[Reck]

Obama won Iowa twice, and Ernst’s seat was held by a Democrat for decades prior to the 2014 red waive (when even Colorado Dems couldn’t win a senate race). Democrats won the generic ballot across the house races in Iowa by 4 points in 2018 and picked up two seats, if the same thing happens in 2020 Ernst loses.

Maine being a coin toss. Gideon is up 8-9 points on Collins in all of the polls.

I think Alabama is 50/50 as of right now as well.

That wasn’t the case before. Doug is actually holding his own among the inbreeders. I don’t think Sessions will even be the guy who runs against him. Trump put his chips on the other guy with no name recognition.

The hope is Trump keeps piling on Sessions, loses and Doug gets pit against a generic Republican no one really knows.

[Millennial_Messiah]

Link me to the recent poll in May that had Collins up 16 points. The last poll on 538 that had Collins ahead of Gideon was last year. I’m willing to bet you just made that up.

That logic with Tester makes no sense. He won in 2012 with an in bent Democrat at the top of the ticket, which would be the same scenario in 2024 if Biden wins.

Because Biden wouldn't win a second term. Especially if Trump can't. The rust belt GOP senators that squeaked it out in 2016 in WI, PA, OH? I'm willing to guess they're (secretly) cheering for Biden to win. If Trump wins, their jobs are toast in two years.

Link https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...deon-6928.html to the page with the Gravis poll showing Collins up +16.

[Will Hunting]

I think Alabama is 50/50 as of right now as well.

That wasn’t the case before. Doug is actually holding his own among the inbreeders. I don’t think Sessions will even be the guy who runs against him. Trump put his chips on the other guy with no name recognition.

The hope is Trump keeps piling on Sessions, loses and Doug gets pit against a generic Republican no one really knows.

Tuberville has plenty of name recognition in Alabama (albeit for completely non political reasons) and he’s up 7-8 points on Jones in the recent polls. I think it will be closer than your typical Alabama election but I don’t see it.

[Millennial_Messiah]

I think Alabama is 50/50 as of right now as well.

That wasn’t the case before. Doug is actually holding his own among the inbreeders. I don’t think Sessions will even be the guy who runs against him. Trump put his chips on the other guy with no name recognition.

The hope is Trump keeps piling on Sessions, loses and Doug gets pit against a generic Republican no one really knows.

Nah. Keep dreaming. Alabama voted in Jones in the special because Roy Moore was a rapist, pedophile, pervert. As long as it's someone bland and normal, "good ole country boy" etc without major scandals, Jones is toast.

[Will Hunting]

Because Biden wouldn't win a second term. Especially if Trump can't. The rust belt GOP senators that squeaked it out in 2016 in WI, PA, OH? I'm willing to guess they're (secretly) cheering for Biden to win. If Trump wins, their jobs are toast in two years.

Link https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...deon-6928.html to the page with the Gravis poll showing Collins up +16.

That Gravis poll was conducted on June 24, 2019 you mongoloid.

[Reck]

Nah. Keep dreaming. Alabama voted in Jones in the special because Roy Moore was a rapist, pedophile, pervert. As long as it's someone bland and normal, "good ole country boy" etc without major scandals, Jones is toast.

Nope. Republicans tried their hardest to put pedo in there. The difference was ironically the black vote that made the difference. They all came out.

Its going to be hard to duplicate but given the times, who knows anymore.

[Millennial_Messiah]

That Gravis poll was conducted on June 24, 2019 you mongoloid.

Even if it wasn't, it was an outlier that I disregarded. As is the +9 poll. The point is that it's a dead heat.

If I were Vegas I'd put the O/U at +1.5 net Democratic gain, depending on how you think Maine will play out.

The likelihood is Tillis holds NC provided Trump holds NC, (if Trump doesn't hold NC then Biden wins in a nuclear landslide), Colorado seat flips and Arizona likely to flip from purple to blue, which is good news for now but potentially bad news for Sinema in 2024, since she's further left of Kelly and AZ isn't really blue enough to keep 2 Dems for very long. Jones is toast in Alabama. Iowa will go Trump/GOP. The Dem in bent in Michigan (Peters) has seen his lead narrowed lately, perhaps due to Whitmer's stupidity, but he'll almost certainly prevail in November. Elsewhere there just isn't much opportunity. John Cornyn isn't going to lose.

[Millennial_Messiah]

Nope. Republicans tried their hardest to put pedo in there. The difference was ironically the black vote that made the difference. They all came out.

Its going to be hard to duplicate but given the times, who knows anymore.

It wasn't just the black vote. It was also the white Christian vote. So many white Christians there that just couldn't vote for such a sinner; religion first, even over party and country.

[Will Hunting]

Even if it wasn't, it was an outlier that I disregarded. As is the +9 poll. The point is that it's a dead heat.

If I were Vegas I'd put the O/U at +1.5 net Democratic gain, depending on how you think Maine will play out.

The likelihood is Tillis holds NC provided Trump holds NC, (if Trump doesn't hold NC then Biden wins in a nuclear landslide), Colorado seat flips and Arizona likely to flip from purple to blue, which is good news for now but potentially bad news for Sinema in 2024, since she's further left of Kelly and AZ isn't really blue enough to keep 2 Dems for very long. Jones is toast in Alabama. Iowa will go Trump/GOP. The Dem in bent in Michigan (Peters) has seen his lead narrowed lately, perhaps due to Whitmer's stupidity, but he'll almost certainly prevail in November. Elsewhere there just isn't much opportunity. John Cornyn isn't going to lose.

So you admit you completely made up a poll conducted in May that had Collins up 16 points. Glad we agree on that.

The 3 most recent polls have Gideon up 1, 4, and 9 points. There haven’t been any polls with Collins leading in the last 6 months. Anyone who’s not re ed doesn’t view that as a dead heat.

[Reck]

It wasn't just the black vote. It was also the white Christian vote. So many white Christians there that just couldn't vote for such a sinner; religion first, even over party and country.

See, that's bull .

At some point they'll have to drop this shtick. Cant call yourself a true christian and at the same time defend/vote for Trump and his ilk.

If they're worried about sinning as you put it, why are they voting for Trump but not Moore? Party over country and religion more like.

[Will Hunting]

It wasn't just the black vote. It was also the white Christian vote. So many white Christians there that just couldn't vote for such a sinner; religion first, even over party and country.

Yeah ing right, the more moderate Republicans in Alabama definitely flipped so you’re right it wasn’t just the black vote that elected Jones, but the Bible thumpers were firmly in Moore’s corner and didn’t care about the pedo . The idea that religious right voters actually give two s about how much sinning a candidate does is hilarious, they vote for whoever has the R next to their name.

[Millennial_Messiah]

So you admit you completely made up a poll conducted in May that had Collins up 16 points. Glad we agree on that.

The 3 most recent polls have Gideon up 1, 4, and 9 points. There haven’t been any polls with Collins leading in the last 6 months. Anyone who’s not re ed doesn’t view that as a dead heat.

I never said the poll was in May. I said it was on RCP, that's all.

The 9 point poll, if you know anything about basic statistics, is the very definition of an outlier. It's waaaaayyyy more than 1.5x the interquartile range on any box and whisker chart,

The problem with making a conclusion right now is that it's just too early and there aren't enough polls out yet. Try me again in September when COVID-19 and the riots have cooled off and we're deep into convention and debate season.

[Will Hunting]

I never said the poll was in May. I said it was on RCP, that's all.

The 9 point poll, if you know anything about basic statistics, is the very definition of an outlier. It's waaaaayyyy more than 1.5x the interquartile range on any box and whisker chart,

The problem with making a conclusion right now is that it's just too early and there aren't enough polls out yet. Try me again in September when COVID-19 and the riots have cooled off and we're deep into convention and debate season.

You said it was “around the same time” as the poll in May that I mentioned was. Are you trying to argue June 2019 is “around the same time” as May 2020?

[Joseph Kony]

MM getting his pushed in once again proving he's a dumbass 22 year old that doesnt know wtf he's talking about

[Millennial_Messiah]

See, that's bull .

At some point they'll have to drop this shtick. Cant call yourself a true christian and at the same time defend/vote for Trump and his ilk.

If they're worried about sinning as you put it, why are they voting for Trump but not Moore? Party over country and religion more like.

Trump isn't a sinner. The left just makes him out to be now that he beat their favorite dream presidential candidate. They've been trying to take him down as revenge since 2016.
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He's not the most presidential, humble or professional president. But he has done excellent with the economy despite dealing with major unprecedented distractions (hoaxes) along the way. Obama didn't deal with such issues. The deep state didn't question his birthplace or relations with radical left and anti-American groups and activists. He was allowed to be himself his entire first term (especially the first two years) without much resistance.

One thing that arguably saved the USA from becoming Europe/Australia 2.0 was the seemingly innocent, innocuous little special runoff in January, 2010 in Massachusetts. VERY close call that meant the difference between radical leftist bills being passed thru easily by the Dems (such as cap and trade, carbon tax, green police etc) without resistance or filibuster.

[Will Hunting]

This exchange is a shining example of MM being a dishonest who constantly changes his argument and repeatedly talks out of his ass:

There’s a poll conducted in May on fivethirtyeight that has Gideon up 9 points.

There was the 538 poll that had Gideon up 9 and a different poll around the same time that had Collins up 16. Both were outliers and thus thrown out.

Link me to the recent poll in May that had Collins up 16 points. The last poll on 538 that had Collins ahead of Gideon was last year. I’m willing to bet you just made that up.

Link https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...deon-6928.html to the page with the Gravis poll showing Collins up +16.

That Gravis poll was conducted on June 24, 2019 you mongoloid.

Even if it wasn't, it was an outlier that I disregarded. As is the +9 poll.

So you admit you completely made up a poll conducted in May that had Collins up 16 points. Glad we agree on that.

I never said the poll was in May. I said it was on RCP, that's all.

[ElNono]

Andy is never to be taken seriously, tbh... this isn't news.

[Millennial_Messiah]

This exchange is a shining example of MM being a dishonest who constantly changes his argument and repeatedly talks out of his ass:

Not being dishonest, it's what I saw. I didn't see anything about 2019. It just said June and I assumed it was this year. I wasn't looking closely at the tiny little details, you don't have to bite my head off for not analyzing like an OCD person, jeezus.

[Millennial_Messiah]

You said it was “around the same time” as the poll in May that I mentioned was. Are you trying to argue June 2019 is “around the same time” as May 2020?

I didn't see any year on that poll.