Coronavirus is one mutation away from infecting millions

[DMC]

At least midnightpulp tries to bring something to the table with the numbers. His math is as bad as RandomGuy but it's obvious he is actually looking for something. Too bad he doesn't understand math or bias.

The issue is that human confirmation bias causes people to have a conclusion then set out to prove it. This is what drives their tendency to select one data source over another, mix data collection methods and cherry pick worst case scenarios to compare to best case scenarios. You can damn near prove any contention if you can select which data provider you want to use.

Without better data collection for influenza, it's hard to compare apples to apples. We know influenza kills a lot of people, but the numbers have always been basically an accepted part of life, and why we get the flu shot. People don't panic over it and question the data. They just accept it. This is why people scoff at the comparisons.

There was never a mandate to wear masks during flu season. Perhaps there should be if it saves lives and medical resources.

[midnightpulp]

You give a guesstimate and I offer an alternative possibility. I don't need to prove dust did anything of the sort, but there's no reason to assign all excess pneumonia cases to COVID other than confirmation bias.

I don't know what the effects of dust would be, but it's just an example of other variables that are being unaccounted for during this witchhunt.

Just going by this: "I used the New York data to guesstimate what might be the nationwide infection rate under-65."

Why not take Montana? Why NY?


Far cry from 1200 or more that NY and NJ (and a couple other states) are experiencing.

You haven't discovered anything of the sort because you don't have accurate flu numbers, neither does the CDC and they say so.

I was being generous with my 20 million infected under age 65 because in New York about 40 percent of the infected were over 65. If we prorate that nationally, around 16 million infected under 65 so far, which would increase the IFR.

I didn't change the IFR from my original 20 million estimate.

About the dust cloud. It didn't arrive until late June. The pneumonia deaths peaked around weeks 15-18 (late-March to early-May). Now if you want to make a claim the dust cloud has exacerbated the situation in FL, TX, AZ, and such, I'd like to see evidence of that. These dust clouds are nothing new, so there should be data available of their impact on respiratory illnesses.

Far cry from 1200 or more that NY and NJ (and a couple other states) are experiencing.

I don't think, "At least we're not New York" is a worthy goal to have.

Having incomplete numbers is still better than having no numbers, and you can indeed project from incomplete data, as the CDC does. Everything suggests Covid is more lethal than the flu. Not sure why that's hard to accept.

[tholdren]

People about to be in for crazy case hype with this

https://www.fda.gov/news-events/pres...ing-diagnostic


Insanity will continue and here come the back logging of deaths, probable deaths being included as actually confirmed.

[tholdren]

I didn't change the IFR from my original 20 million estimate.

About the dust cloud. It didn't arrive until late June. The pneumonia deaths peaked around weeks 15-18 (late-March to early-May). Now if you want to make a claim the dust cloud has exacerbated the situation in FL, TX, AZ, and such, I'd like to see evidence of that. These dust clouds are nothing new, so there should be data available of their impact on respiratory illnesses.



I don't think, "At least we're not New York" is a worthy goal to have.

Having incomplete numbers is still better than having no numbers, and you can indeed project from incomplete data, as the CDC does. Everything suggests Covid is more lethal than the flu. Not sure why that's hard to accept.

bwahahahahahhahah bad data is worse than no data. Man you are really not effective with numbers. Which is why your calculations are terrible, just like RandomGuy

[ChumpDumper]

I didn't change the IFR from my original 20 million estimate.

About the dust cloud. It didn't arrive until late June. The pneumonia deaths peaked around weeks 15-18 (late-March to early-May). Now if you want to make a claim the dust cloud has exacerbated the situation in FL, TX, AZ, and such, I'd like to see evidence of that. These dust clouds are nothing new, so there should be data available of their impact on respiratory illnesses.

No way in he'll do that.

[DMC]

People about to be in for crazy case hype with this

https://www.fda.gov/news-events/pres...ing-diagnostic


Insanity will continue and here come the back logging of deaths, probable deaths being included as actually confirmed.

I posted about this a few days ago. Labs are doing it already, FDA clearance not required for LDTs.

Also consider the some lab are doing batch testing. They're mixing samples together up to 10 in a sample and if it's negative then they are all negative but if it's positive then individual samples will get a retest. These may get reported initially as all positives since they all tested positive. They will do this to preserve reagents and instrument time along with personnel of course. Man hours count.

[midnightpulp]

The issue is that human confirmation bias causes people to have a conclusion then set out to prove it. This is what drives their tendency to select one data source over another, mix data collection methods and cherry pick worst case scenarios to compare to best case scenarios. You can damn near prove any contention if you can select which data provider you want to use.

Without better data collection for influenza, it's hard to compare apples to apples. We know influenza kills a lot of people, but the numbers have always been basically an accepted part of life, and why we get the flu shot. People don't panic over it and question the data. They just accept it. This is why people scoff at the comparisons.

There was never a mandate to wear masks during flu season. Perhaps there should be if it saves lives and medical resources.

I'm actually using all the data available we have at the moment. Meanwhile, you're speculating about the accuracy of the numbers without any proof. They are "inaccurate" because you want them to be inaccurate because the current numbers we have don't fit the narrative that Covid is "just the flu."

And yes, I accept there's a wide range of flu cases and morality in the CDC's data, but we can use the upper bound and the morality rate is still lower. Also, you assume Covid cases are being overcounted, while there's more evidence they are being undercounted.

https://weinbergerlab.github.io/excess_pi_covid/

[midnightpulp]

bwahahahahahhahah bad data is worse than no data. Man you are really not effective with numbers. Which is why your calculations are terrible, just like RandomGuy

Incomplete data isn't bad data, you monumental moron. And many data sets for many things are "incomplete" but you can still make reasonable projections from them.

[vy65]

I'm not really bullish anymore on that many people being naturally immune. Why? We inadvertently got a controlled study out of a Texas prison:

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-w...e-for-covid-19

This casts doubt on the theory that Covid naturally dies out when 20 percent of the population becomes infected, theory first proposed by Levitt. Now Covid can certainly die out at 20 percent infected if we employ proper mitigation. But the prison situation shows it doesn't just die out "naturally" regardless of mitigation or no mitigation.

I'm also not too crazy about willingly employing herd immunity due to this recent study.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus...tients_awaits/

Not really the most diverse population, but nevertheless 726 (40%) are indicated as not having contracted it per those numbers.

[DMC]

I'm actually using all the data available we have at the moment. Meanwhile, you're speculating about the accuracy of the numbers without any proof. They are "inaccurate" because you want them to be inaccurate because the current numbers we have don't fit the narrative than Covid is "just the flu."

And yes, I accept there's a wide range of flu cases and morality in the CDC's data, but we can use the upper bound and the morality rate is still lower. Also, you assume Covid cases are being overcounted, while there's more evidence they are being undercounted.

https://weinbergerlab.github.io/excess_pi_covid/

No, by default they are inaccurate unless proven otherwise. There's only one "accurate" and an infinite amount of inaccurate, so by default the burden of proof is on the one claiming accuracy. This is how NIST works and how it's always worked. You'll never see a calibration label say "not proven inaccurate".

I don't assume COVID is being over-counted. I assumed it's under a magnifying glass that influenza isn't under. I challenge you to find information about influenza to the level we have on COVID.

[midnightpulp]

Not really the most diverse population, but nevertheless 726 (40%) are indicated as not having contracted it per those numbers.

Per the t-cell studies and whatnot, the natural immunity theory seems to be population agnostic. Anyone can have it. Yes, 40 percent not getting infected seems to jibe with the estimates that reach herd immunity you need to have 60-80 percent of the pop infected. But as I've said, we can control the herd immunity threshold with mitigation. This is why the anti-makers and other "Freedumbs" are preventing progress being made in this regard.

[tholdren]

Per the t-cell studies and whatnot, the natural immunity theory seems to be population agnostic. Anyone can have it. Yes, 40 percent not getting infected seems to jibe with the estimates that reach herd immunity you need to have 60-80 percent of the pop infected. But as I've said, we can control the herd immunity threshold with mitigation. This is why the anti-makers and other "Freedumbs" are preventing progress being made in this regard.

No masks required in many states and countries who have faired better than Texas with cases. Fact

[Will Hunting]

For those who care or are interested - 6 of the residents who tested positive are now dead, and 3 more are on ho e. I was hopeful the virus has mutated, but I’m not convinced anymore.

None of the other senior care centers we own have had any COVID, but once COVID gets inside an assisted living facility or nursing home, it spreads like wildfire and there’s only so much that can be done to stop it.

2 more dead residents, and the building now has more residents with COVID-19 than it does without. This is despite the building following all of the safety protocols and taking employee temperatures before each shift - state regulators have conducted numerous inspections and haven’t cited the building for anything wrong.

Getting prompt test results is everything. It only took ~3 weeks for this building to go from no COVID to a COVID bloodbath because of how quickly it spreads. It’s a complete myth that you can’t spread the virus if you’re asymptomatic. If states are taking 6 days to get people test results then we don’t stand a chance at containing this without a vaccine.

[midnightpulp]

No, by default they are inaccurate unless proven otherwise. There's only one "accurate" and an infinite amount of inaccurate, so by default the burden of proof is on the one claiming accuracy. This is how NIST works and how it's always worked. You'll never see a calibration label say "not proven inaccurate".

I don't assume COVID is being over-counted. I assumed it's under a magnifying glass that influenza isn't under. I challenge you to find information about influenza to the level we have on COVID.

The flu is under a magnifying glass by health professionals. It can get nasty some seasons and peak well above the epidemic threshold, as you saw. It needs to be under that magnifying glass so hospitals know how to prepare for flu season. It's just not under the magnifying glass in the media. The CDC has a pretty good estimate of the flu's infection and mortality. Again, we can take the upper bound and the flu is still significantly less dangerous than the current Covid situation, which, again, is likely being undercounted per the coincident rise of Covid deaths and excess deaths.

Furthermore, your demand of burden of proof for 100 percent accurate numbers in this case is unfair, because no data set on the flu or Covid is 100 percent accurate. There's simply confidence intervals, and we can make reasonable projections and inferences from those confidence intervals. And the projections suggest Covid is worse than the flu by at least a factor of 2.

[midnightpulp]

No masks required in many states and countries who have faired better than Texas with cases. Fact

Yeah, states with like 10 people. Wear your in' mask.

[midnightpulp]

2 more dead residents, and the building now has more residents with COVID-19 than it does without. This is despite the building following all of the safety protocols and taking employee temperatures before each shift - state regulators have conducted numerous inspections and haven’t cited the building for anything wrong.

Getting prompt test results is everything. It only took ~3 weeks for this building to go from no COVID to a COVID bloodbath because of how quickly it spreads. It’s a complete myth that you can’t spread the virus if you’re asymptomatic. If states are taking 6 days to get people test results then we don’t stand a chance at containing this without a vaccine.

Sad.

"But old people don't count! Back to work, wagie! My 401K is more important than an 80 year old drowning in their own fluids."

A culture that doesn't take care of its weakest members isn't worth a , imo.

[DMC]

2 more dead residents, and the building now has more residents with COVID-19 than it does without. This is despite the building following all of the safety protocols and taking employee temperatures before each shift - state regulators have conducted numerous inspections and haven’t cited the building for anything wrong.

Getting prompt test results is everything. It only took ~3 weeks for this building to go from no COVID to a COVID bloodbath because of how quickly it spreads. It’s a complete myth that you can’t spread the virus if you’re asymptomatic. If states are taking 6 days to get people test results then we don’t stand a chance at containing this without a vaccine.

The cycle time for testing is mostly in sample collection and delivery. Mobile testing units should be available that can strategically be positioned at high risk areas (high risk meaning repercussions from infection, not just infection). A friend works for the Missouri Dept of Corrections juvenile rehab stuff.. they transfer people between units sans testing, and spread the virus that way. Until the virus gets treated like contraband, it won't be caught in time to prevent sharing.

[ChumpDumper]

No masks required in many states and countries who have faired better than Texas with cases. Fact

Do you wear a mask?

[Will Hunting]

One of Cheney’s famous quotes was (maybe paraphrased) if there’s even a 1% chance of a terrorist attack, we should prepare for it as if it’s an absolute certainty.

I don’t understand why conservatives agree with this quote but won’t apply the same logic to facemasks. If there’s even a small chance that wearing a face mask can reduce the spread of coronavirus, why can’t you just ing wear one?

[Will Hunting]

The cycle time for testing is mostly in sample collection and delivery. Mobile testing units should be available that can strategically be positioned at high risk areas (high risk meaning repercussions from infection, not just infection). A friend works for the Missouri Dept of Corrections juvenile rehab stuff.. they transfer people between units sans testing, and spread the virus that way. Until the virus gets treated like contraband, it won't be caught in time to prevent sharing.

Couldn’t agree more. We should have mobile testing units set up across the country. It kills two birds with one stone as it’s needed for contact tracing and thousands of mobile testing sites across the country puts a lot of people back to work until this is over.

Nursing homes and assisted living centers should also just have weekly testing for all residents and employees at this point.

[tholdren]

Do you wear a mask?

Every time I go into public

[DMC]

Sad.

"But old people don't count! Back to work, wagie! My 401K is more important than an 80 year old drowning in their own fluids."

A culture that doesn't take care of its weakest members isn't worth a , imo.

When did assisted care living facilities ever require hand washing and face masks prior to entry of family? Never that I recall, and yet influenza kills a lot of the elderly - same fluid in lungs. It's not an indictment of care homes, it's an indictment of hygiene practices and the status quo that these elderly will die soon anyhow. That hasn't changed with COVID, novel virus, not novel concept.

[tholdren]

Sad.

"But old people don't count! Back to work, wagie! My 401K is more important than an 80 year old drowning in their own fluids."

A culture that doesn't take care of its weakest members isn't worth a , imo.

Terrible argument

[midnightpulp]

One of Cheney’s famous quotes was (maybe paraphrased) if there’s even a 1% chance of a terrorist attack, we should prepare for it as if it’s an absolute certainty.

I don’t understand why conservatives agree with this quote but won’t apply the same logic to facemasks. If there’s even a small chance that wearing a face mask can reduce the risk of coronavirus, why can’t you just ing wear one?

You know, I hate playing the race card, but that's what this is. Fueled by racism. Preparing ourselves against the remote possibility of a terrorist attack means either preemptive strikes against brown goat herders, restricting immigration to brown goat herders, and other such measures. Conservatives don't mind being inconvenienced with like the Patriot Act if they believe it'll keep them safe from brown people. The resistance against masks is obviously because they see masks as a "liberal thing" and their peanut brains are wired to reflexively resist anything that they perceive as liberal.

[DMC]

Couldn’t agree more. We should have mobile testing units set up across the country. It kills two birds with one stone as it’s needed for contact tracing and thousands of mobile testing sites across the country puts a lot of people back to work until this is over.

Nursing homes and assisted living centers should also just have weekly testing for all residents and employees at this point.

It's not hard to set up but requires an initial investment. Hospitals won't do it, the return is low if any. FEMA should be doing it but they cannot get their together and agree on a method since competing interests means different providers need to bid. It would take years.