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Using the "what would your neighbor do" is a popular question. Less likely to lie if you are talking about someone else
So was Rassmussen.
When your polls are consistently to the right, and then a guy comes in with a fluke win, it doesn't mean your data was right. It means you lucked in.
I dont mind right leaning pollsters as long as their methodology is transparent and clear about who they sample and how.
Using the "what would your neighbor do" is a popular question. Less likely to lie if you are talking about someone else
I hope you're right, but can't write them off as lucky in 2016 until they're proven wrong in 2020.
I'd be lying if I said I wasn't nervous as about the polls this year being wrong again.
probably not the head but the rich guy has serious parental issues
The “shy Trump voter” phenomenon is a real thing.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...y-trump-voters
I've hit my monthly limit of free Bloomberg, can you post a link to the study or pull a quote?
I wonder what the polls would look like had Coronavirus not happened.
A new online study finds that Republicans and independents are twice as likely as Democrats to say they would not give their true opinion in a telephone poll question about their preference for president in the 2020 election. That raises the possibility that polls understate support for President Donald Trump.
Some 11.7% of Republicans and 10.5% independents said they would not give their true opinion, vs. 5.4% of Democrats, according to the study by CloudResearch LLC, a Queens, N.Y.-based company that conducts online market research and data collection for clients. Among the reasons they gave was that “it's dangerous to express an opinion outside of the current liberal viewpoint,” according to Leib Litman, the co-chief executive officer and chief research officer.
CloudResearch conducted the survey online but inquired about surveys that are conducted by phone. It first asked participants for their political preference, then asked how they felt about divulging their preference for president in a phone poll. Later, it asked whom they actually did support for president.
Political party preference was the only characteristic that correlated consistently with reluctance to share presidential preference, Leib says. There was no correlation with age, race, education, or income. Cloud Research conducted the study two ways and got basically the same result both times, he says: In one, 1,000 respondents were evenly divided among Democrats, Republicans, and independents, and the second asked a different set of 1,000 respondents picked to precisely match the demographics of likely voters, regardless of party.
Everything I've seen shows that it wasn't the shy Trump voter that pollsters got wrong in 2016 as much as it was them ing up rural voter turnout. I have yet to see whether they've corrected that this year. In 2018 they halfway corrected it but were still off in a lot of places (polls showed that the Dem senators in Missouri, Indiana and North Dakota were either favored or had a 50/50 shot at winning and then all lost by 5+%).
Not saying the shy Trump voter isn't a thing, I just don't see it as the thing that skews polls the most. If the polls are wrong this year it's probably because Trump has found a way to energize his base even more so turnout is even higher. In every poll I've seen, Trump is winning over 85% of all Republican votes (most polls have him above 90% of Republican voters), so I don't see how there could be that many Republican voters lying about who they'll vote for.
One difference to keep in mind is that there doesn't seem to be nearly as many undecided voters this year as last year. In 2016, over 10% of voters decided in the final week (closer to 15% in WI/MI/PA) and they overwhelmingly went for Trump. Wisconsin was the greatest example (he had a 2:1 advantage on final week deciders, without that he loses the state). I'd find the post if searching wasn't disable but I posted in another thread about this comparing polls from 2016 and 2020.
Hard to tell tbh. The economy was already slowing down in late 2019/early 2020 before COVID.
Trump would definitely be doing better but Biden wouldn't be hiding in the basement, he'd be out campaigning and fighting harder.
What if I told you, they're not a thing.
Also assuming there isn't one for Biden as well.
At the end of the day, if you're outside the margin of error by 3-4 points these "shy voters" won't make a difference.The AAPOR study said evidence for a “Shy Trump" effect isn't conclusive. The authors hypothesized that if voters didn't want to tell a live interviewer that they supported Trump, you'd expect Trump to do worse in live-interview polls than in ones involving interactive voice response, which is less personal. In fact, Trump, didn't do worse in live-interview polls.
In 2016 Trump was indeed inside the margin of error of the polling showing Hillary with a 2.1.
Trump has a couple of months to eat into that 7 point lead average though so we'll see.
“CloudResearch's Leib says the AAPOR study doesn't change his mind. He says his company asked participants how they felt about divulging their preferences via automatic calls vs. live ones and found that AAPOR's assumption about which one Trump voters would prefer was false. “Many people are just as distrustful of automatic calls, because their response will be recorded!" he wrote in an email.”
Boiled down: Trump supporters love lying.
The Trump posters here prove it daily.
“Typically, the AAPOR study found, "those who admit changing their minds more or less wash out, breaking about evenly between the Republican candidate and the Democratic candidate. " Not in 2016, though: People who changed their answers when called back after the election had voted for Trump by a 16-percentage-point margin.”
If you're on chrome hit the lock on the address bar and don't allow JavaScript on Bloomberg.com it lets you look at it works for all news sites
So they're no longer "shy" voters then. They're out of the proverbial closet.
Are you saying there is even more of them? Trump hasn't improved his approval rating above 45 in three and a half years but sure he has a permanent hidden vote.
It also makes no sense that there would be more shy Trumpers when Trump is the in bent. He's been normalized for 3.5 years now, there aren't going to be as many shy Trumpers as when he was considered the outsider candidate.
Trump beat Clinton
I have seen 2 biden signs driving on service calls
I saw 10 Trump signs on one street
https://www.google.com/amp/s/abcnews...%3fid=72705268
Oh well. Time to triple down, eh?
no dead cat bounce.
If I order a pizza and ask for delivery from your company, you will see lots of signs in my neighborhood ducks.
Still in denial.
Bull . Go take a walk right now and post a video of all your neighborhood Biden signs.
There were few Hillary signs in 16 and not a lot of Obama signs in 12. I haven't even seen a Biden sign yet, tbh. Democrat enthusiasm been way down for a long time.
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