Will Hunting You wanted to know what changed from 2016 polling to how they're doing it now.
This tweet thread is interesting and sheds some light.
Yeah that's kinda what I suspected, the pollsters seem more precise in the demographics of the sample they're polling.
FT also points out what I've said repeatedly on this site, nearly all of the polls that showed Hillary up also showed her below 50% of the total vote and a substantial amount of undecided voters. This year there's a lot of polls that show Biden above 50% and an overall significantly lower amount of undecided voters.
Yeah it was two-prong. Undecideds and pollsters not targetting the non elite, non rich common folks. They missed a freaking huge chunk of the electorate.
Some of 2016 was an aberration. I don't see Trump winning Wisconsin again by getting less votes than Romney got in 2012, and undecideds aren't going to swing the election again.
One thing to note of people want to compare to past election, Joe Biden is up more on Trump now than Obama was on McCain at this time in 2008
The birther stuff was so petty.
Pencil in Wisconsin for Trump after BLM burned down KenoshaSome of 2016 was an aberration. I don't see Trump winning Wisconsin again by getting less votes than Romney got in 2012, and undecideds aren't going to swing the election again.
One thing to note of people want to compare to past election, Joe Biden is up more on Trump now than Obama was on McCain at this time in 2008
Yup.
I'm more confidant he carries Wisconsin again than I am with Michigan or Penn. Kenosha sealed it.
Last edited by Dirks_Finale; 09-04-2020 at 08:05 PM.
Trump has a higher percentage of winning Minnesota than Wisconsin.
Trump is on the other spectrum of the charts here. 7.5 points in the hole on average. That is worse than PA, and Minnesota combine.
Never mind. For some reason I thought Biden had an average of about 3 points in Minnesota. They released a poll today that had him up 8 points and that shot his averages up to 6.
Yeah I was right. It was around 4 and a half ish before.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...ral/minnesota/
Both are 10 electoral votes.
Don't see Minnesota ever turning red, though. This is the same state that elects wrestlers to be their Governor.
Trump can lose the popular vote much worse than he did to Killary and still eek out a 270 to 268 electoral college win. Which is what I think is going to happen, if he does win. And several Kenosha type destruction to follow.
Trump has a higher percentage of winning Minnesota than Wisconsin.
Trump is on the other spectrum of the charts here. 7.5 points in the hole on average. That is worse than PA, and Minnesota combine.
I don't buy the polls that have him up that much. Very likely oversampling of democrats
I do think he is pretty solid in Minnesota, though. Trump is not a threat there.
But Cuomo in April!
Believing all this BS is how you thought NC, AZ, GA were in play for Hillary in 2016.
Trump has a higher percentage of winning Minnesota than Wisconsin.
Trump is on the other spectrum of the charts here. 7.5 points in the hole on average. That is worse than PA, and Minnesota combine.
Believing all this BS is how you thought NC, AZ, GA were in play for Hillary in 2016.
...and many said Texas
You should probably give this a read.I don't buy the polls that have him up that much. Very likely oversampling of democrats
I do think he is pretty solid in Minnesota, though. Trump is not a threat there.
Because of the re ed electoral college system
Utah too for CIA's Egg McMuffin....and many said Texas
https://www.google.com/amp/s/thehill...sin-poll%3famp
I’ll stop now.
im guessing his wife got used up by some black dudes and told him about it. He’s still with her, because he has no self worth, whatsoever, and hates himself for knowing he can never satisfy her like they all did.
I can’t really imagine there is any real undecided vote, at this point.
people know what Trump is. It’s a referendum on whether it’s more important to heal, or own the libs.
I also fear the people like dirk and the guy from Poland and darrin and cc who will be completely fake in public because they know what Trump does that turns them on. They might even have the common sense to know blatantly representing themselves as they do here, leads to negative social consequences.
Reality is r’s have abandoned any pretense of even appearing to care about governing. It’s slash and burn, and position false narratives for the midterms
My coworker, immigrant Asian female asked me yesterday if I think Trump will win. I told her a couple months ago I didn't think so but it is 50/50 now. I didn't put her on the spot but the way she formulated questions it seems she prefers Trump
In 2020 my circle of friends experienced two examples of social pressure, both in March. First being my friends housewife was pressured to support BLM on Facebook. She ended up taking it down. Another friend is still single living by the beach so he dates girls in their early-mid 20s and he said these types would also voice pressure for supporting BLM.
So both examples involved white American women. These are the biggest victims of social and media pressure.
Single fella, eh?
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