2020 Election Poll Watch w/ 538

[Will Hunting]

The Foxconn snafu really hurt Trump in Wisconsin. That was supposed to be the boon for his campaign that brought factory jobs back to the state.

[Will Hunting]

Another congressional district poll that supports my theory that the statewide/national polling overcompensated for 2016 and shows Trump doing better than he's actually doing.

This poll shows Trump doing 11 points worse in AZ-06 than he did in 2016.

[Spurminator]

Another congressional district poll that supports my theory that the statewide/national polling overcompensated for 2016 and shows Trump doing better than he's actually doing.

This poll shows Trump doing 11 points worse in AZ-06 than he did in 2016.

My concern is it seems like a lot of these district polls have a large percentage of independent or undecided. Like that poll for example only adds up to 86%. There's no way 14% of the vote is going towards third party, so the rest of that has to be made up somewhere.

[baseline bum]

A WaPo/ABC poll released today has Biden up 17 points in Wisconsin, which jumped the 538 average in Wisconsin up to a 9 point lead. The only way Biden loses Wisconsin is if Trump gets courts to stop counting absentee ballots that have already been received, there won't be enough absentee ballots thrown out because they weren't received on time to swing the state.

I'll put nothing past the Kavanaugh + Alito + COVID Barrett + Uncle Thomas + Gorsuch + Roberts court, especially when Kavanaugh was talking like Wisconsin needed to have a result by election night.

[baseline bum]

I just don't think Trump is popular in WI anymore, driving thru there.

Doesn't have to be if the state can throw out the right votes.

[Reck]

MN is more likely to flip to Trump than Trump keeping WI, that's my point. MN will be tighter than most think and Shillary won there by the skin of her teeth (Trump was leading there with 99% precincts in up until the day after).

So Biden, who is doing 100% better than Hillary accross the rustbelt will lose a state she won? That makes sense..

[Will Hunting]

My concern is it seems like a lot of these district polls have a large percentage of independent or undecided. Like that poll for example only adds up to 86%. There's no way 14% of the vote is going towards third party, so the rest of that has to be made up somewhere.

The poll had Biden beating Trump 49-48%, that's only 3% undecided/3rd party...

[Bogie]

Trump is in trouble.

Biden is ahead in Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Florida, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina.


https://news.yahoo.com/biden-solid-l...192851932.html

how ing stupid does one have to be to think trump would handle the virus better? They’ve already admitted they’re doing nothing.

[Spurminator]

The poll had Biden beating Trump 49-48%, that's only 3% undecided/3rd party...

Nm you're right I misread.

[DMC]

sure they do if those beliefs affect an entire society made up of many not necessarily having those beliefs. And you can understand their objections and still question the impact a certain religious belief is having on a society. We can walk and chew gum. This is just a ridiculously stupid argument. You again set up false parameters.

Beliefs don't affect others. Actions do.

[Reck]

A WaPo/ABC poll released today has Biden up 17 points in Wisconsin, which jumped the 538 average in Wisconsin up to a 9 point lead. The only way Biden loses Wisconsin is if Trump gets courts to stop counting absentee ballots that have already been received, there won't be enough absentee ballots thrown out because they weren't received on time to swing the state.

That one might be an outlier. 17 Points seems like too much.

Today, the so called gold standard Marquette is releasing their final poll for Wisconsin. We'll see what that one says.

[Rummpd]

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...se_watch_oct28

Discounted by Silver (probably rightfully) but has DT back in lead.

[DMC]

mrs. Crutchfield shows her self again.
ocd and post master general; tough act but you go old lady

OCD is a clinical diagnosis, not a trait.

[Will Hunting]

I'll put nothing past the Kavanaugh + Alito + COVID Barrett + Uncle Thomas + Gorsuch + Roberts court, especially when Kavanaugh was talking like Wisconsin needed to have a result by election night.

Gorsuch blocking the MN-02 GOP candidate from delaying his election (when there was actually enough gray area in the stupid MN election law that the delay wouldn't have been very controversial) tells me he has limits to his corruption. Same w/ Roberts.

The Gorsuch opinion in Wisconsin is a ridiculous interpretation of the cons ution but there actually is precedent for it. The concurring opinion Kavanaugh wrote was an incoherent joke written by someone who shouldn't be anywhere near the supreme court

[Will Hunting]

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...se_watch_oct28

Discounted by Silver (probably rightfully) but has DT back in lead.

Another right wing poll you're promoting as an honest broker who swears he isn't a Trump supporter and doesn't care who wins

[leemajors]

keep telling yourself that Edgelord_Messiah.

bro he drove through there, boots on the ground, tbh, imo

[LaMarcus Bryant]

covid barrett crofl

[Ef-man]

how ing stupid does one have to be to think trump would handle the virus better? They’ve already admitted they’re doing nothing.

Cult followers drank that koolaid and nothing will convince them otherwise.

Ask derp.

[Millennial_Messiah]

I'll put nothing past the Kavanaugh + Alito + COVID Barrett + Uncle Thomas + Gorsuch + Roberts court, especially when Kavanaugh was talking like Wisconsin needed to have a result by election night.

That would be fun if SCOTUS took over the country and ruled it cons utional for Trump to maintain power and be re-elected, Ahmedinejad vs Mousavi Iran 2009 style, at all costs up to and including using tear gas and batons to squelch the millennial protestors.

[Millennial_Messiah]

Gorsuch blocking the MN-02 GOP candidate from delaying his election (when there was actually enough gray area in the stupid MN election law that the delay wouldn't have been very controversial) tells me he has limits to his corruption. Same w/ Roberts.

The Gorsuch opinion in Wisconsin is a ridiculous interpretation of the cons ution but there actually is precedent for it. The concurring opinion Kavanaugh wrote was an incoherent joke written by someone who shouldn't be anywhere near the supreme court

yeah, I could see Gorsuch and (especially) Roberts sort of becoming John Paul Stevens esque and making a de facto 5-4 left leaning majority so the dems don't need to pack to courts at all.

[Spurminator]

yeah, I could see Gorsuch and (especially) Roberts sort of becoming John Paul Stevens esque and making a de facto 5-4 left leaning majority so the dems don't need to pack to courts at all.

They should do it anyway.

[Millennial_Messiah]

They should do it anyway.

no... the Nine Nazgul approach is tradition. Leave it as-is. Slippery slope.

[Will Hunting]

yeah, I could see Gorsuch and (especially) Roberts sort of becoming John Paul Stevens esque and making a de facto 5-4 left leaning majority so the dems don't need to pack to courts at all.

No, Gorsuch ruling against delaying a ing election doesn't make him a "moderate" it just makes it so he's not a corrupt partisan hack the way Thomas/Alito are.

[Spurminator]

no... the Nine Nazgul approach is tradition. Leave it as-is. Slippery slope.

Sorry, traditions are dead. You can thank Mitch McConnell for that.

If Republicans want to preserve an arbitrary SCOTUS count, they can amend the Cons ution. Maybe the Dems can work with them on that, after they pack the SCOTUS up to, say, 21.

[boutons_deux]

New poll shows Trump getting destroyed in the Lehigh Valley

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/10/27/1989846/-New-poll-shows-Trump-getting-destroyed-in-the-Lehigh-Valley