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Silver isn't factoring in voter suppression
Like I said, they tighten it after the narrative has been consistently supplied for the media.
It's submission polling / forecasting.
Silver isn't factoring in voter suppression
Yea, they always tighten it to hedge on their potential humiliation.
Like I said, I should've made this poll two months ago; Chumpettes would've been doing cartwheels.derp declares victory after being curbstomped
No, it tightened because Hillary had a ty final 2 weeks.Yea, they always tighten it to hedge on their potential humiliation.
Like I said, I should've made this poll two months ago; Chumpettes would've been doing cartwheels.
Now post Biden's and see if there's a difference.
Nate was better than NYT, amirite?
Always? What about this year?
Do you know how to read a graph?
Yea, they always tighten it to hedge on their potential humiliation.
Like I said, I should've made this poll two months ago; Chumpettes would've been doing cartwheels.
Did Silver tighten the odds up at all this year? By your logic he would have.
What was so ty about it?
Good.
So show an analysis of this from a source that has some sort of method other than watch you tubes and reading his alt right tweets.
Supply your link of the media complicity and methods.
I dare you. You wont.
Supply your "Silver", you wont because you will get laughed at.
Newsflash, you are already laughed at because all your calculations are fairy tales in your tiny head.
I beat all of you.
Combination of Comey and the natural tightening that occurs. The former hurt more, obviously.
This cycle hasn't seem either. Keep taking your Ls.
What did FOX have?
Comey letter and a mediocre 3rd debate performance. Trump was also much better at staying on message in 2016 than she was.
This year not so much. The Trump War Room is on Twitter 24 hours before the election talking about Lady Gaga.
No poll does, tbh
This take was played out by Jan 2017
Always? What about this year?
Do you know how to read a graph?
So, it was 9/10 for Hillary and now Biden 9/10 chance.
You agree that Nate's a hack if Joe doesn't win?
Always? What about this year?
Do you know how to read a graph?
It wasn't 9 out of 10 for Hillary you dumb got.
So Hunter's worse laptop and 8-92 debate performance not any different this time around? Biden has a hard time even presenting a message.
You guys don't bother to make sense.
cowboys beat the bengals day or cowboys beat the browns day?
hmm... wonder why Ohio sure flipped
neither of those were as epic as "cowboys beat the steelers" day tbh. unfortunately that's not gonna happen next weekend, even as PA goes trump.
I’m Here To Remind You That Trump Can Still Win
A 10 percent chance isn’t zero. And there’s a chance of a recount, too.
By Nate Silver
It’s tempting to write this story in the form of narrative fiction: “On a frigid early December morning in Washington, the Supreme Court ruled 5-4 that disputed mail ballots in Pennsylvania—” You know, that kind of thing. But given the stakes in this election, I think it’s important to be prosaic and sober-minded instead.
Before we proceed further, a short philosophical note. I hate it when people use phrases — to be fair, we often use phrases like these ourselves! — such as “Nate Silver is giving Biden a 90 percent chance” or “FiveThirtyEight still gives Trump a 10 percent chance.” We aren’t giving anybody anything. Instead, as former FiveThirtyEight politics host Jody Avirgan puts it, what we’re doing is “mapping uncertainty.” In other words, if Biden leads by about 9 points in national polls, 8 points in Wisconsin, 5 points in Pennsylvania, 2 points in Florida, etc., how does that translate into a probability of victory? That’s what our model is trying to figure out.
And indeed — although nobody needs any reminders of this after 2016 — Trump can win. All the election models are bullish on Biden, but they are united in that a Trump win is still plausible despite his seemingly steep deficit in polls.
A huge part of why our model and others’ think Trump can still win is the Electoral College. Trump has only a 3 percent chance of winning the popular vote in our model. Other models put his chances at less than 1 percent. It’s very likely that Democrats will win the popular vote for the seventh time in the last eight elections.
Read more:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...can-still-win/
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