***** Official All-Inclusive 2020 Election Night Thread *****

[ChumpDumper]

That means very little in terms of who they actually voted for. For example, my mother and grandmother, diehard conservatives, actually were registered Democrats from 2006 to 2012 because they had to re-register as Democrats to vote in a primary for their friend from a charity club (Frank Madla) who unfortunately ended up losing to the other Democrat and then dying in a fire that Thanksgiving, 2006.

Examples like that are very, very common.

Sounds very, very stupid so I doubt it's common at all.

[Splits]

That means very little in terms of who they actually voted for. For example, my mother and grandmother, diehard conservatives, actually were registered Democrats from 2006 to 2012 because they had to re-register as Democrats to vote in a primary for their friend from a charity club (Frank Madla) who unfortunately ended up losing to the other Democrat and then dying in a fire that Thanksgiving, 2006.

Examples like that are very, very common.

Very true. Probably more people will die in fires on Thanksgiving this year than covid

[TSA]

Remember when TSA was giddy as about Republicans closing the gap in early voting?

I brought up the point that they're essentially cannibalizing their own voter turnout on election day. Looks like that's what's happening.

Early voting ended up with a dem lead of just over 100k while dems ran just about even with them at 65% apiece.

[spurraider21]

joeisdone.github

[Will Hunting]

Got it, thanks. Where you getting the data for today's votes?

@UMichVoter99 on twitter. He aggregates all the data from each county.

[Millennial_Messiah]

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Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden


Key 2020 Races: PA-1 | PA-7 | PA-8 | PA-10 | PA-17 President: 2016: Trump +0.7 | 2012: Obama +5.4

Final 2016 RCP Average: Clinton +1.9, Results: Trump +0.7 (Trump +2.6 Ahead of Polls)

Polling Data

Poll	Date	Sample	MoE	Biden (D)	Trump (R)	Spread
RCP Average	10/29 - 11/2	--	--	48.7	47.5	Biden +1.2
Susquehanna*	11/1 - 11/2	499 LV	4.3	48	49	Trump +1
Rasmussen Reports	10/31 - 11/1	800 LV	3.5	50	47	Biden +3
Trafalgar Group (R)*	10/30 - 10/31	1062 LV	2.9	46	48	Trump +2
NBC News/Marist	10/29 - 11/1	772 LV	4.4	51	46	Biden +5
InsiderAdvantage*	10/30 - 10/31	500 LV	4.4	47	49	Trump +2
CNBC/Change Research (D)	10/29 - 11/1	699 LV	--	50	46	Biden +4

[ChumpDumper]

joeisdone.github

"thank you BYECOMEY"

[ChumpDumper]

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Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden


Key 2020 Races: PA-1 | PA-7 | PA-8 | PA-10 | PA-17 President: 2016: Trump +0.7 | 2012: Obama +5.4

Final 2016 RCP Average: Clinton +1.9, Results: Trump +0.7 (Trump +2.6 Ahead of Polls)

Polling Data

Poll	Date	Sample	MoE	Biden (D)	Trump (R)	Spread
RCP Average	10/29 - 11/2	--	--	48.7	47.5	Biden +1.2
Susquehanna*	11/1 - 11/2	499 LV	4.3	48	49	Trump +1
Rasmussen Reports	10/31 - 11/1	800 LV	3.5	50	47	Biden +3
Trafalgar Group (R)*	10/30 - 10/31	1062 LV	2.9	46	48	Trump +2
NBC News/Marist	10/29 - 11/1	772 LV	4.4	51	46	Biden +5
InsiderAdvantage*	10/30 - 10/31	500 LV	4.4	47	49	Trump +2
CNBC/Change Research (D)	10/29 - 11/1	699 LV	--	50	46	Biden +4

Why did they omit the most recent poll with the largest sample size?

[Splits]

joeisdone.github

very next tweet:

[lefty]

[Splits]

@UMichVoter99 on twitter. He aggregates all the data from each county.

just checked some of the crosstabs of the most recent polls and even the ones with Trump ahead indies were breaking for Biden by around 10 points

[Reck]

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Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden


Key 2020 Races: PA-1 | PA-7 | PA-8 | PA-10 | PA-17 President: 2016: Trump +0.7 | 2012: Obama +5.4

Final 2016 RCP Average: Clinton +1.9, Results: Trump +0.7 (Trump +2.6 Ahead of Polls)

Polling Data

Poll	Date	Sample	MoE	Biden (D)	Trump (R)	Spread
RCP Average	10/29 - 11/2	--	--	48.7	47.5	Biden +1.2
Susquehanna*	11/1 - 11/2	499 LV	4.3	48	49	Trump +1
Rasmussen Reports	10/31 - 11/1	800 LV	3.5	50	47	Biden +3
Trafalgar Group (R)*	10/30 - 10/31	1062 LV	2.9	46	48	Trump +2
NBC News/Marist	10/29 - 11/1	772 LV	4.4	51	46	Biden +5
InsiderAdvantage*	10/30 - 10/31	500 LV	4.4	47	49	Trump +2
CNBC/Change Research (D)	10/29 - 11/1	699 LV	--	50	46	Biden +4

Already debunked this.

Also asterisk palooza.

[Will Hunting]

just checked some of the crosstabs of the most recent polls and even the ones with Trump ahead indies were breaking for Biden by around 10 points

Indies broke for Gillum by 10% in 2018 as well, that’s why I’m saying maybe the Rs have a turnout lead but it’s not the turnout lead they were expecting or needed.

Later afternoon voting hours traditionally favor Democrats in South Florida as well. We’re unlikely to see a GOP surge in FL between now and when polls close.

[ElNono]

very next tweet:

[TSA]

@UMichVoter99 on twitter. He aggregates all the data from each county.

[Will Hunting]

So R+1.5% with 4 hours before polls close. I’m ok with that.

[Reck]

You're ignoring the non party affilation voters again.

[Splits]

Indies broke for Gillum by 10% in 2018 as well, that’s why I’m saying maybe the Rs have a turnout lead but it’s not the turnout lead they were expecting or needed.

Later afternoon voting hours traditionally favor Democrats in South Florida as well. We’re unlikely to see a GOP surge in FL between now and when polls close.

yeah and most polls also had ~8%R->D x-over and ~4%D->R crossover.

[Nathan89]

The upside of Biden winning is digging a hole and burying these propagandists tbh

[ChumpDumper]

The upside of Biden winning is digging a hole and burying these propagandists tbh

no chance in .

Your guys will always be unhinged conspiracy mongers from now on. Plenty of material.

[ChumpDumper]

"What if we just arrested the ballots?"

[baseline bum]

Indies broke for Gillum by 10% in 2018 as well, that’s why I’m saying maybe the Rs have a turnout lead but it’s not the turnout lead they were expecting or needed.

Later afternoon voting hours traditionally favor Democrats in South Florida as well. We’re unlikely to see a GOP surge in FL between now and when polls close.

Because the older happy merchants go to dinner at 4:30 and then it's oxycodone by 5:15?

[Nathan89]

The racist assholes wanted id verification for me to vote.

[Nathan89]

no chance in .

Your guys will always be unhinged conspiracy mongers from now on. Plenty of material.

The left has averaged one viral bull story per day for the last 2 months.

Your candidate is running on a platform built on a hoax.

[Reck]

"What if we just arrested the ballots?"

These people are insane.