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Back to the drawing board in OH
Chris Coomer and Mark Warner neutered a lot of the common sense tax increases Biden wanted independent of Sinema and Manchin (who to his credit actually wanted the tax increases).
Back to the drawing board in OH
Those are just the state leg maps but Maureen O'Connor is undoubtedly gonna rule the same way on the congressional maps.
Ohio's law is weird because it forbids the court from drawing state leg districts but allows it to draw the congressional districts, so the real question at this point is whether O'Connor will kick the congressional maps back down to the state leg or if the OHSC will just draw the map itself.
IMO Chabot is definitely ed either way - they're gonna have to uncrack Hamilton County and give Dems a safe D seat in Cincinnati, the question is whether O'Connor also makes them any district in Northeast Ohio.
Last edited by Will Hunting; 01-13-2022 at 10:05 AM.
https://www.dispatch.com/story/news/...ng/9119566002/
Ohio Supreme Court nukes the congressional map....state leg has 30 days to redraw and submit for approval.
If the maps they redraw get struck again, I'm pretty sure the procedure is that the committee gets to hijack the process and draw maps without state leg input.
But the committee is also strongly GOP though. The only branch that is slightly leftward is the Ohio supreme court which has a couple centrist GOPers including the chief justice who provided the swing vote which nuked the map.
I'll say the Dems might get a 3rd solid seat, they'll draw a blue district from Akron/Southern Cleveland area to Toledo, in exchange for pretty much everything else being safe R.
If the Dems only get 1 seat it wouldn't be that, it'd be Cincinnati. Chabot is toast.
If the committee drew an unfair map, the court would just nuke it again. Maureen O'Connor is basically a partisan Dem on redistricting issues.
It's a shame there isn't a counterpart the other way in Illinois. A fair map would be something like 11-6 or 10-7 there. 14-3 with no court litigation is horse .
But it makes sense to leave Chabot and the other in bents alone and try to save either one of the Democrat in bents, Tim Ryan or Marcy Kaptur before drawing someone out.
No it doesn't. Tim Ryan is running for senate, he's done either way and saving his district would require massively carving up the northeast OH districts.
Kaptur is a big overperformer and just needs minor alterations made to her district to have a good chance at surviving. You can easily get that + nuking Chabot done given the court.
The real shame is that the GOP is obstructing a federal ban on redistricting. That would ensure Ohio, Illinois and every other state got fair maps.
If you draw maps like Michigan in every state, get ready for 70%-30% and-up majorities in both directions in blue and red wave years. That's enough to pass new cons utional amendments without resistance... partially dependent on the Senate... forget HR- bills. Cons utional. Amendments.
That's not true regarding what it would create butno that's not enough to pass new cons utional amendments even if it led to 70% splits.
Cons utional amendments require 38 states (75%) to ratify them...that's 38 state legislatures and 38 governors. It also requires 2/3rds of the senate.
Do you know how government works?
Also this is the commission map that gets adopted if the Rs can't agree on a map that the court approves.
Dem supreme court majority in NC is getting ready to nuke the NC gerrymander too
There were a few states where redistricting has gone well for Rs, but overall it's been terrible for them.
^7 districts out of 15 is a crazy pipe dream for Democrats.
That's literally best possibly drawn map for the Democrats.
Ohio is 45% Dem 55% Republican, 7/15 is 46.6%.
Call it a pipedream all you want but it's the closest there is to a proportional map.
Okay, now give me proportional maps in CA, IL and NY and we'll give you proportional maps in OH, NC and FL.
At the end of the day I think they'll draw a 11-4 map that passes the court system. 2 for Cleveland/Akron area, 1 for Columbus and 1 for Cincinnati and everything else solid red. But all of the districts being solid for both parties. Dayton and Toledo aren't big enough to justify having democrat districts and not being cracked.
Since they couldn't pull a reverse Illinois in Ohio, their next best option is to pull a Texas.
We're gonna get proportional maps in OH, NC and FL regardless
Sucks getting a taste of your own gerrymandering medicine
You think that after initially leaving Toledo and Dayton alone the Ohio GOP is going to crack both of them after being scolded by the OHSC?
Good luck with that
It's going to be a bit of a compromise. Dems rightfully upset at having Cleveland and Cincinnati cracked, two urban and large black population centers. They get those solid and crack the smaller cities that don't have a big enough population to justify not being cracked.You think that after initially leaving Toledo and Dayton alone the Ohio GOP is going to crack both of them after being scolded by the OHSC?
Good luck with that
You just said that independent commissions in every state would lead to the house of representatives being able to pass cons utional amendments on its own.
You don't know how anything worse
I did mention the senate issue and I didn't remember about the 75% of the states rule. yeah, that wouldn't happen, there will never not be 13 safe GOP or Dem controlled states.You just said that independent commissions in every state would lead to the house of representatives being able to pass cons utional amendments on its own.
You don't know how anything worse
Yeah I don't know what they were thinking in NC with the Dems having the state supreme court majority. They literally drew out 2 Dems from an already right leaning map, what did they think was going to happen?
The Florida GOP could use these as ammo to go aggressive in Florida... GOP likes retribution and they're still pissed over Illinois and a couple others so they will absolutely crack Nashville for instance in Tennessee. The GOP did pick up one seat in Arizona. But overall it has been a net loss so far if they don't get OH or NC through.
The Chief Justice has a lot of control over when cases are heard and they were hoping he'd be able to delay it until after 2022, but they didn't realize that the rules always allow a majority overrule the chief justice on that stuff, and the 4 Dems on the NC supreme court are ruthless partisan hacks who are fully prepared to use every procedural tool imaginable to gut the GOP maps before 2022.
The GOP pickup in AZ likely gets canceled out in '24 because Schweikert won't survive past that year in a Biden district.
Tennessee already released their map and yeah Nashville is cracked but it's not the ruthless gerrymander I was expecting. Cooper's district only becomes Trump +9.
The Florida state senate already approved its map out of committee. Your only hope there is a DeSantis veto but there'd prob be enough votes to override him if it's a GOP approved fair map.
If Tony Evers can somehow convince Hagedorn to accept his least change maps in WI, that'll be another underrated W.
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