Thanks. I would've agreed with your initial sentence when this war started, especially before seeing the EU and US coming together the way they have. And it's still possible that Russia ends up bombing Ukraine into submission.
What's not so clear to me anymore is that Russia can afford a 5 year (much less a 10 or 20 year) war. Right now it's clear to me that Ukraine will have an endless supply of weapons if they're willing to fight, whereas Russia is going to have a lot more problems in the long run in that area.
What I call a win or loss is what the purported objectives are. For Russia, despite being fairly vague in their statements, I think it's pretty clear they ultimately want to annex Donetsk and Luhansk, on top of Crimea. Possibly Mariupol as well to have a full corridor on the Black Sea, and at the end of the day choke the Ukrainian commerce.
For Ukraine, it's defending their sovereignty, including those lands. If we go by cities taken, and considering this supposed overwhelming force, I can't think Russia achieved their objectives so far, and at this point it certainly looks pretty embarrassing, tbh...