1.5 Game bacause we have the tie-breaker ? because they are two games ahead of us.
Wich is not as good as some people think.
Tankaton has a good page on this, too:
https://www.tankathon.com/remaining_schedule_strength
Lakers have the 2nd hardest remaining schedule by opponents' winning percentage. The Spurs have the 12th.
1.5 Game bacause we have the tie-breaker ? because they are two games ahead of us.
Wich is not as good as some people think.
I think because the LAL pick used to be conditional with the DET/CHI pick, they maintained those conditions on some sites. But the Spurs owned both picks and thus broke the conditions connecting them. There's no reason why SA would attach meaningless additional steps.
Some of those difficulty-of-schedule stats can be kind of up in the air, because it's hard to know which good teams will be resting stars near the end. Sometimes playing an average team at full strength (and maybe with something to prove) can be a greater task than playing a top seeded playoff team that's already locked into a position and resting their best guys.
Last edited by R. DeMurre; 03-25-2022 at 02:54 PM.
Thanks for this reply. Very informative. So I am basically tracking them getting to the 10th spot at this point. I had forgotten all the special rules that come into place for the play in, and I thank you for outlining them so clearly.
The Spurs apparently value that chance over trying to tank at the end of the season and getting the small chance to get a top 4 pick. I'd have to say that exact scenario you describe kind of paid off with player development and growth for Morant and the Grizzlies last season. They also had to win 2 elimination games in the play in mini tournament for the chance to be annihilated by the Utah Jazz in the playoffs. I followed the Grizzlies somewhat last season and I remember all the criticism that the coaching staff and the FO got because they were still trying to work a washed up and awful Justice Winslow into their rotation and lost a few games as a result, requiring them to win 2 games to get to the playoffs instead of just one had they been seeded higher. Anyways, that little run for such a young team catapulted Morant to another level, which he's been able to maintain through the season. That's a different story of course, because the Grizzlies last season despite being 9th in the western conference standings had a better record than this Spurs team this year. They were ranked 9th with a record of 38-34. It seems almost unbelievable to contemplate that they were a few games over .500 last season and still out of the playoffs, but for that play in mini tournament.
Anyways, the Spurs players may still see that situation and consider the prestige and exposure that the young Grizzlies got just by accomplishing that feat and they may hope to level up their games regardless of how the season went before this point. I think this is what is on their minds (the players at least). If they got to the playoffs and lost in 4 games or whatever, hopefully we still get to see the growth from a couple of players, same as Morant and Brooks balled out in that Grizz-Jazz series and still were eliminated. There is value in something like that for a young team.
For the team last season with Derozan, Rudy Gay and Mills taking most of the shots (other than DJ) to get eliminated early in that play in, there was no point. We didn't learn anything and the young players got to experience that pressure and environment but not with the burden on themselves. That was still technically a veteran team with Derozan as the leader. This is a different situation. I can see value in their advancing to that point, at least arguable value. Like I said, they most likely don't make it that far, but at least Pop gave them a full chance to try to make it, to the bitter end. That's my thinking right now.
Last edited by SAGirl; 03-25-2022 at 03:59 PM.
Here's a tanking scenario for you.
The Spurs lose as much as they can and end up with the 7th worst record in the league (a long shot at this point but we'll give it to them).
The Pelicans go all out to win and get the 10th seed in the Western Conference.
The Pelicans fight like and win play-in Game One (the Lakers let's say).
Then the Pelicans fight like and lose the 2d play-in game (the Clippers let's say). The young Pelican players hold their heads high (as much as you can when you're called the Pelicans) and move forward with their at least somewhat helpful playoff experience.
Then the draft lottery happens.
The Pelicans get the first pick in the draft (or at least a top three pick).
The Spurs, despite their tanking, get the 10th pick.
The Pelicans are trying to choose between Jabari Smith, Banchero and Chet Holmgren (or some here might add, Jaden Ivey).
The Spurs are parsing Blake Wesley, TyTy Washington, Wendell Moore, Orlando Robinson, Mark Williams, Kennedy Chandler, Max Christie, Jeremy Sochan and Walker Kessler.
It could happen.
It absolutely could. Very much a long shot, though. If we’re #7 and drop to 10, that would mean that three teams behind us jumped into the top four. The odds of #7 dropping to 10 are 1.3%. I’m not sure why you picked #7, but we’ll roll with it. The odds of #7 jumping into the top 4 are 31.9%. The last two years, drafting at 11 and 12, our odds of a top four pick were 13.9% and 9.4%.
We likely will be 8th if we hold our spot. That would mean top four odds of 26.3%.
If you’re concocting doomsday scenarios, you missed one. We continue to play hard, and NY and Wash plummet, but NO and LA do enough to hold us off. We would be 10th, and not make the play in.
Washington with the win over Detroit.
Ivey disappointed in the game as the Pea s eliminated Purdue. Had he been better they sure win that game. He woke up too late. Not as hot on him, he’s got potential but will need time.
I watched the last 5 minutes of Washington and Detroit it honestly looked like both teams were trying to lose.
The Wizards couldn't out- the Pistons in Detroit and I don't think New York will beat the Heat in Miami. This leaves those same four teams at 31 wins -- including LAL and NOP. So, two wins separate that group from the Spurs.
Blazers take on Rockets in Portland tonight but I don't know if they can actually win that.
Bizarrely, the Rockets and Trailblazers play the same exact game tomorrow night.
I’m watching how Toronto does as much as the Spurs at this point.
Looking at Portlands remaining schedule they play quite a few games against teams who are also trying to tank (vs. HOU x2, vs. OKC, @ OKC. They may get a couple of W's there. If the Spurs could somehow go 1-1 in their two games against the Blazers by resting their starters for one game, they may still be in with a shot of that 7th draft spot.
Neither Houston or OKC wants to win as both want to get in that bottom 3 to maximise their lottery chances. Currently its 4 teams vying for those 3 spots.
Also dead on. And once someone like Houston has wrapped up the wost record, they can play hard and loose.
I just think you need to look at how important these draft picks are to the Spurs and remember that they're just as important to the other teams. It's a big deal to give on up just for the #8 seed, and the privilege of losing to the #1 seed. But that's easy to say when I'm not the one trying to keep a guy like DJ from getting restless. If it were me, I would be selling him on the idea that a lottery pick would give him some help for the rest of his career. But I'm not in the locker room with him.
LOL. It could absolutely happen. But I could walk into a casino and drop a buck in a slot and win a lot of money. That's a little extreme, but I'm just saying that betting against the odds isn't a good way to pay the rent.
You can't deny, though, that the 8th worst record has a better chance of picking 10th than 4th. And the 8th worst record has a zero percent chance of picking 5,6, or 7. A lot of things CAN happen. But the lower you go in the order, the odds get pretty slim - and the chance for some of the adequate middle outcomes goes away.
Portland is making it blatantly obvious tonight that they want to lose.
Amazing, behind a 38-15 fourth quarter, the Knicks beat the Heat. I watch Knicks games and they are working hard and trying to win. Thibodeaux is forced to play his young players right now and they're active and hustling.
Portland is a lost cause. They're embarrassing.
Portland is so bad they're playing Greg Brown. Drew Eubanks may be their best player right now.
Where’s the “The Drew Eubanks Trade is Looking Worse and Worse by the Day” thread?
Knicks come back and beat the Heat in Miami.
Wizards barely hold off Detroit.
Good .
Yet they're reportedly holding on to Lillard trying to add a few pieces around him using the picks, so instead of cutting their losses and trading him for real value now, they'll likely extend him and be forced to keep his rotting corpse until his contract ends. Mind boggling.
Man Portland is trying to really land in the top 4 of the draft - Playing Houston and I think at one point they where down 26 pts
Well he is putting up 13 and 8 in 28 minutes a night on 64% shooting from the field since Portland picked him up. Another rising star we got nothing in return for.
LOL
agreed about Portland
Very good win by the Knicks, i really don't understand why some people here think that NY and Wash will tank. They will not, they are just playing bad overall.
There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)