2022 Draft Pick Watch

[Degoat]

I’m low key worried we’re gonna make the playoffs and not get a lottery pick lol last year the playin was with the grizzlies and the warriors lol imo there was no chance but this time the pelicans and clippers, those are very winnable games

[exstatic]

We’ve done considerably better late first round DJ, White and Keldon than we have ~10-20 with Walker, Samanic, Vassell and Primo.

Would be nice ti actually draft an immediate impact player for once.

Yeah, that's not going to happen. If you want high ceiling, you're going to have to wait. Any player ready to play is top 2-3 picks or at their ceiling already.

[KingKev]

Yeah, that's not going to happen. If you want high ceiling, you're going to have to wait. Any player ready to play is top 2-3 picks or at their ceiling already.

Yeah wishful thinking I know. It’s too hard to speculate at this point what they do come draft day. I have no strong opinion I’d just like to go into next season feeling like we upgraded the roster and not banking on Primo and Vassell taking major leaps.

[ZeusWillJudge]

Aah. I got it. There is no coin flip to determine the draft order within the lottery. The teams with the same record split the odds if they are tied. In the 2021 draft, the 8th, 9th and 10th ranked teams had the same record and so their draft odds were 4.5% each to get the 1st pick instead of 6, 4.5 and 3% respectively. The 2022 standings are similar to 2020's.. no ties within the lottery at the 8th, 9th and 10th spots. And so the Spurs will get a 4.5% chance of getting the 1st pick. Tldr, Tankathon is right.

That's not right, either. The coin toss is specifically to determine the draft order. Think about it - they have to somehow determine which team picks first, don't they? That's what the coin toss is for. But the lottery chance to move up to a Top 4 pick works like this:

1. If two teams are tied, they split the odds.
2. If there is an odd number, the winner of the coin toss gets the extra AND the better draft position.

No matter what, the coin toss determines the draft position (unless one team gets picked for the lottery). But the coin toss winner ALSO gets an extra ping pong ball if they can't be split evenly.

[rascal]

Yep, we've done more with less. Spurs managed to find talent picking from 25-30 for like two decades, a 21 pick probably looks golden to them at this point.

, we have a 41 pick (Tre Jones) getting regular rotation minutes and actually playing well...dude just needs to develop a jump shot and he will be a legit player.

It's better to get into the lottery at a chance for a more sure chance at a future star level player. Spurs have also ended up with busts picking in the 20's.

[ZeusWillJudge]

This is what the issue is. The odds are off because of the ties last year.

I get what you're saying, and it may be right. But then Tankathon's chart is STILL wrong. It currently shows Atlanta and Charlotte tied. That means that their odds will be split. But the chart shows a .8% chance for Atlanta, and a .7% chance for Charlotte. That represents 80/1000 numbers and 70/1000 numbers, respectively. So just for starters, it should show both having a .75% chance at the lottery.

[exstatic]

I get what you're saying, and it may be right. But then Tankathon's chart is STILL wrong. It currently shows Atlanta and Charlotte tied. That means that their odds will be split. But the chart shows a .8% chance for Atlanta, and a .7% chance for Charlotte. That represents 80/1000 numbers and 70/1000 numbers, respectively. So just for starters, it should show both having a .75% chance at the lottery.

Clippers could get knocked out in the play in,and become #14, bumping up both CHA and ATL. We really won’t know anything until the play in is over, which is why no one is updating anything right now.

[Dex]

It's better to get into the lottery at a chance for a more sure chance at a future star level player. Spurs have also ended up with busts picking in the 20's.

True, obviously that top 10 pick is going to be far more valuable especially if we can move up.

Just saying, have 3 firsts this year could be big, whether we end up using them or packaging them for something. Gives the FO a ton of flexibility.

Bright Wright definitely doesn't have the best track record so far, but they got this one mostly right. Now lets see if they can take advantage.

[ZeusWillJudge]

Clippers could get knocked out in the play in,and become #14, bumping up both CHA and ATL. We really won’t know anything until the play in is over, which is why no one is updating anything right now.

LOL. I thought about that, too. But remember, Tankathon's chart is for the LOTTERY, not draft order. All they have to do is split the odds, and they haven't done that at any point in the year.

Also, last year there really were 3 teams tied at 8,9, and 10. But there were also 2 teams tied at 11, and the charts don't reflect anything about that. None of it matters now that everything is final, but it's nice to understand. I'm starting to think that nobody understands it very well.

If I were the NBA, I would show a generic chart with the odds for each SLOT, and then explain the tiebreaker procedures. I think that's what they did.

[Uriel]

So we'll have coin flips for both the Toronto and Boston picks.

25% chance we win both coin flips.

25% chance we lose both coin flips.

50% chance we win one but lose the other.

[Ariel]

So we'll have coin flips for both the Toronto and Boston picks.

25% chance we win both coin flips.

25% chance we lose both coin flips.

50% chance we win one but lose the other.

Actually the Boston pick is a 3-way tie, so it's 33,3% each.
Basically the scenario would be:
* 1/6 we get 20 & 23
* 1/6 we get 20 & 24
* 1/6 we get 20 & 25
* 1/6 we get 21 & 23
* 1/6 we get 21 & 24
* 1/6 we get 21 & 25

[Ariel]

LOL. I thought about that, too. But remember, Tankathon's chart is for the LOTTERY, not draft order. All they have to do is split the odds, and they haven't done that at any point in the year.

Also, last year there really were 3 teams tied at 8,9, and 10. But there were also 2 teams tied at 11, and the charts don't reflect anything about that. None of it matters now that everything is final, but it's nice to understand. I'm starting to think that nobody understands it very well.

If I were the NBA, I would show a generic chart with the odds for each SLOT, and then explain the tiebreaker procedures. I think that's what they did.

I think the Tankathon chart is the one you suggest the NBA would publish (which I agree), and eventhough they say it includes ties, it doesn't. I believe they were using a tie-breaker similar to the one used for playoff seeding (which does not apply, I know). But we are trying to make sense of inconsistent and/or outdated information, so we'll just have to wait.

Edit: I looked at the Tankathon chart again and the "Base odds" chart below, and I know what happened: the ties between 13 & 14 ARE included, but since they cannot be split evenly, they have to decide on a tie-breaker. Since that hasn't happened, they ARBITRARILY assigned Atlanta the 13th place & Charlotte the 14th place. That is not accurate. But the chart IS.

[BatManu20]

Damn Denver really potentially ed us last night with that embarrassing G-League collapse

[BatManu20]

One pick drop doesn’t seem that bad in theory but there’s a drop-off after the top-20 prospects imo. So it would kinda suck dropping from 20 to 21.

But whatever. Spurs will prob draft someone other than who I think is BPA anyways so I digress.

[duncan2150]

True, obviously that top 10 pick is going to be far more valuable especially if we can move up.

Just saying, have 3 firsts this year could be big, whether we end up using them or packaging them for something. Gives the FO a ton of flexibility.

Bright Wright definitely doesn't have the best track record so far, but they got this one mostly right. Now lets see if they can take advantage.

We could also package our 38 pick with one pick to move up. A lot of possibilities and i think a lot will depend on who is available when the spurs pick.

And for the coin flip, i can't find a date but according to Josh Paredes it will be on the next few days.

[Ariel]

One pick drop doesn’t seem that m bad in theory but there’s a drop off after the top-20 prospects imo. So it would kinda suck. But Spurs will prob draft someone other than who I think is BPA anyways so whatever.

I think it WOULD matter losing the 20/21 tie-breaker, considering it's Denver who would be picking ahead, and they have an excellent track record of finding value late (Jokic, MPJ, RJ Hampton, Bones Hyland, Monte Morris, etc). I wouldn't feel comfortable having them snatch Jovic in front of our noses, for instance. But events like that happen all the time, so you have to live with it. Falling outside the lottery for the privilege of getting swept by the Suns would be deadly, however.

[exstatic]

We could also package our 38 pick with one pick to move up. A lot of possibilities and i think a lot will depend on who is available when the spurs pick.

And for the coin flip, i can't find a date but according to Josh Paredes it will be on the next few days.

I think they will wait until after the play in.

[JPB]

One pick drop doesn’t seem that bad in theory but there’s a drop-off after the top-20 prospects imo. So it would kinda suck dropping from 20 to 21.

But whatever. Spurs will prob draft someone other than who I think is BPA anyways so I digress.

No offense but there would magically be a big drop off... just after the #20.

Would be curious to know the 20 studs that dominate the draft so much that the 21th pick would be such a big drop off... no to mention that ask 30 teams and they'd all pick differently in the top 20.

[Kurik]

One pick drop doesn’t seem that bad in theory but there’s a drop-off after the top-20 prospects imo. So it would kinda suck dropping from 20 to 21.

But whatever. Spurs will prob draft someone other than who I think is BPA anyways so I digress.

This is a giant assumption that all the teams drafting in the top 20 have the same top 20.

[KingKev]

One pick drop doesn’t seem that bad in theory but there’s a drop-off after the top-20 prospects imo. So it would kinda suck dropping from 20 to 21.

But whatever. Spurs will prob draft someone other than who I think is BPA anyways so I digress.

Sounds like you have this down to a science.

[rascal]

No offense but there would magically be a big drop off... just after the #20.

Would be curious to know the 20 studs that dominate the draft so much that the 21th pick would be such a big drop off... no to mention that ask 30 teams and they'd all pick differently in the top 20.

Still always better to get the higher pick as there can be a chance that the player you want may get picked right before your pick.

[ZeusWillJudge]

I think the Tankathon chart is the one you suggest the NBA would publish (which I agree), and eventhough they say it includes ties, it doesn't. I believe they were using a tie-breaker similar to the one used for playoff seeding (which does not apply, I know). But we are trying to make sense of inconsistent and/or outdated information, so we'll just have to wait.

Edit: I looked at the Tankathon chart again and the "Base odds" chart below, and I know what happened: the ties between 13 & 14 ARE included, but since they cannot be split evenly, they have to decide on a tie-breaker. Since that hasn't happened, they ARBITRARILY assigned Atlanta the 13th place & Charlotte the 14th place. That is not accurate. But the chart IS.

I'd like to know for sure, but that's as good a theory as any.

What I really hope is that this offseason makes the Spurs so good that we don't have to worry about it for a long time.

[Jsmythe]

I get what you're saying, and it may be right. But then Tankathon's chart is STILL wrong. It currently shows Atlanta and Charlotte tied. That means that their odds will be split. But the chart shows a .8% chance for Atlanta, and a .7% chance for Charlotte. That represents 80/1000 numbers and 70/1000 numbers, respectively. So just for starters, it should show both having a .75% chance at the lottery.

No Tankathon is correct. Your math was off: 0.8% chance and 0.7% chance represent 8/1000 and 7/1000 numbers, not 80 and 70. As someone else explained, if there are an odd number of ping pong balls, the coin flip winner gets the better pick and 1 extra ping pong ball, which is worth 0.1% chance.

[ZeusWillJudge]

No Tankathon is correct. Your math was off: 0.8% chance and 0.7% chance represent 8/1000 and 7/1000 numbers, not 80 and 70. As someone else explained, if there are an odd number of ping pong balls, the coin flip winner gets the better pick and 1 extra ping pong ball, which is worth 0.1% chance.

Well, you're right. If Tankathon is correct, then the NBA botched their own "How the lottery works" article by giving last year's results instead of showing the general blueprint? What a mess.

Like I said before, I just hope it's not a factor for the Spurs again for a long time.

[Ariel]

Apparently the tiebreakers will be next monday (couldn't find an official source, though I looked at NBA communications):

https://www.nbcsports.com/bayarea/wa...s-target-no-28

The tiebreaker between the Warriors and Heat will be determined on April 18 in a draw by the NBA.

https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2022/04/...aft-order.html

These tiebreakers will be conducted by the NBA next Monday (April 18)

https://www.yardbarker.com/nba/artic...14822_37391991

These tiebreakers will be conducted next Monday (April 18)

That would determine where the Toronto pick (20/21) and Boston pick (23/24/25) land.