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  1. #601
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
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  2. #602
    Andrew Dufresmed Millennial_Messiah's Avatar
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    222-213 (GOP majority) seems like the most likely scenario for final House numbers as per NYT

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...&region=NavBar

  3. #603
    Andrew Dufresmed Millennial_Messiah's Avatar
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    ROFL that GOP representatives are considering Trump for Speaker of the House
    That can't legally happen unless he were to win a special election (that's not on the table yet) and he were to actually run, most likely in an R+15 or better district in FL, but the chance of one opening up is slim

    The 93k ballots includes earlies (not late earlies that favor the GOP, earlies that favor Dems) and provisionals (will also favor Dems).

    The 74k number is the number of late earlies that Lake is relying on to close the margin and as he said, she'd need to win them by 35% even if you assume the other ballots left outstanding break even when they're definitely not going to since they're largely from Pima & Apache county.

    Lake is done. Enjoy the pending frivolous lawsuits about voter fraud.
    Yeah, Lake lost. AZ is a tilt to lean D state now most likely for the 2024 presidential, senate, and going forward. With Lake losing, I don't see the GOP getting that state back now on the ECV level for the foreseeable short term future.

    I'd like the thank the MAGA s for refusing vaccination and thus dying in higher numbers from COVID. Every little bit helped us keep the senate, so thanks for killing yourselves to own the libs.
    Has 0% to do with the ineffective useless vax and everything to do with old people who break GOP just dying in higher mortality rates than before for multiple reasons including covid and shower reaction time by the USA's crappy medical system to other chronic diseases and cancers due to being preoccupied with covid.

    Just look at 2020... it's the same scenario as 2020 and there was no vax in November 2020.

  4. #604
    Andrew Dufresmed Millennial_Messiah's Avatar
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    The cult will slowly dissolve over the next 2 years and if the economy continues it's crumble, then the losses you take with the remaining die-hard cult members, will be gained by independents.

    We just have to figure out how to keep him from an independent run and Perot type spoiler.
    A large majority of the cult members will "come home". They won't vote blue, at least.

  5. #605
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    Lie down with dogs, rise with fleas.

    DeSantis belongs to the same cult, he's the new figurehead for schizmatics like you and D_F, you've said as much yourself.

  6. #606
    俺はまんこが大好きなんだよ baseline bum's Avatar
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    Has 0% to do with the ineffective useless vax and everything to do with old people who break GOP just dying in higher mortality rates than before for multiple reasons including covid and shower reaction time by the USA's crappy medical system to other chronic diseases and cancers due to being preoccupied with covid.

    Just look at 2020... it's the same scenario as 2020 and there was no vax in November 2020.
    Exactly. Please keep being antivaxxers, MAGA s

  7. #607
    Alleged Michigander ChumpDumper's Avatar
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    That can't legally happen unless he were to win a special election (that's not on the table yet) and he were to actually run, most likely in an R+15 or better district in FL, but the chance of one opening up is slim
    Show me the legal requirement that the Speaker has to be an elected House representative.

  8. #608
    Andrew Dufresmed Millennial_Messiah's Avatar
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    Exactly. Please keep being antivaxxers, MAGA s
    I'm not an antivaxxer ' .

    I believe strongly in the original "no shots no school" policy, i.e. pertaining to serious diseases like polio, hepa is, tetanus, bacterial meningococcus, etc. All the vaccines that were built with integrity back in the 1940s and 1950s that have been time proven and actually prevent life-threatening illnesses that actually kill young people.

    I was an early adopter of the Gardasil vaccine (3 doses, spread over 7 months) in high school. It was my high buy Christmas present one year in the early 2010s.

    I believe in getting a Tetanus booster every 10 years.

    However I have a strong policy against the vaccines manufactured for URIs, that started in 2012 when I was sickened for 4 months essentially for the third straight year with flu and post-flu bronchitis after receiving the flu shot each year. In the past, I hadn't received flu shots most falls, and weren't sickened all spring the following year. Simply by personal experience and experience of those surrounding me, the statistical truth is that the annual seasonal flu shot doesn't work, and weakens your immune system for other URIs not influenza such as rhinoviruses and coronaviruses, most of which are classified under "common cold" but can hit very hard especially if you have a weakened immune system from an underlying condition or overvaccination of URI doses, pre-2021 essentially limited to the flu shot and in the case of Spring 2010, the H1N1 vaccine (I never got that one, but I did know someone in late 9th grade who did, and she ended with with a large welt on her shoulder which didn't go away for nearly a month. Bottom line... URI "vaccines" weaken immune systems and make manufacturers rich. The epitome of crony capitalism and the rigged system which makes the wealthy BigPharma elite and medical provider companies and insurance companies rich and the people poorer and sicker. Keep the life expectancy at ~80 years per person and no higher as part of a greater NWO population control philosophy (and also keep social security and medicare costs under control). But I've known that well since 2013, and ACA was affirmation of this. ACA did next to nothing but make insurance companies and providers rich and the general populace poorer.

    I've been anti- URI vaccine for 7-8+ years before covid existed, and have had tetanus booster as recently as 2019... so don't label me antivaxxer or lump me in the q- boat.


    Show me the legal requirement that the Speaker has to be an elected House representative.
    Stare decisis... show me the last example when the speaker wasn't an elected house rep?

    Similar to impeachment and conviction of a previous president. If there had been a previous example, e.g. Nixon during the Ford administration, then it would have made sense to convict Trump.
    Last edited by Millennial_Messiah; 11-14-2022 at 12:56 PM.

  9. #609
    Savvy Veteran spurraider21's Avatar
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    Sad trombone
    in his defense it almost flipped Will Hunting's vote

  10. #610
    Believe. Dirks_Finale's Avatar
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    This is bull .

    The Dems voted on articles of impeachment and sent them to the senate for a trial just a couple of weeks after January 6th.

    The GOP had the opportunity to convict and make Trump irrelevant, instead McConnell cucked out by claiming you can't impeach someone who isn't in office anymore (a belief with no cons utional precedent).

    The Dems gave the GOP the opportunity to make Trump irrelevant and the GOP decided against it because it was worried what banishing Trump would do for rural turnout.

    Turns out rural turnout for Trump candidates doesn't work unless Trump himself is on the ballot.
    Dems dragged their feet and impeached him a week later. I am referring to the immediate sentiment after Jan 6th when everyone and their momma was saying Trump was disgraceful.

  11. #611
    Believe. Dirks_Finale's Avatar
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    Show me the legal requirement that the Speaker has to be an elected House representative.
    I would also like to see this.

  12. #612
    Savvy Veteran spurraider21's Avatar
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    Guess I made an error in my math somewhere. Probably put a minus sign instead of a plus somewhere in the Mathematica worksheet I made lol.

    Washington Post claims there are 93k Maricopa ballots but that would still only drop things to Lake needing to win the remaining Maricopa ballots 64-36 to tie Hobbs statewide if no other counties had outstanding votes.

    Def looks nearly impossible for Lake though, especially with Apache County having nearly 9000 votes left and Pima 40,500 left if the Washington Post's numbers are correct.
    you didnt carry the 1

  13. #613
    Savvy Veteran spurraider21's Avatar
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    oh yeah, she's dead

  14. #614
    Believe. Dirks_Finale's Avatar
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    Lie down with dogs, rise with fleas.

    DeSantis belongs to the same cult, he's the new figurehead for schizmatics like you and D_F, you've said as much yourself.
    B.S.

    DeSantis is the highly educated, anti-woke king and tactful leader that appeals to independents.

    He is a not a narcissistic buffoon that demands allegiance to himself.

  15. #615
    Alleged Michigander ChumpDumper's Avatar
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    Stare decisis... show me the last example when the speaker wasn't an elected house rep?

    Similar to impeachment and conviction of a previous president. If there had been a previous example, e.g. Nixon during the Ford administration, then it would have made sense to convict Trump.
    If there is no precedent of a person's being refused the speakership because he wasn't an elected House member, there is no stare decisis.

    Again, show me the legal requirement that the Speaker has to be an elected House representative.

  16. #616
    俺はまんこが大好きなんだよ baseline bum's Avatar
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    I'm not an antivaxxer ' .

    I believe strongly in the original "no shots no school" policy, i.e. pertaining to serious diseases like polio, hepa is, tetanus, bacterial meningococcus, etc. All the vaccines that were built with integrity back in the 1940s and 1950s that have been time proven and actually prevent life-threatening illnesses that actually kill young people.

    I was an early adopter of the Gardasil vaccine (3 doses, spread over 7 months) in high school. It was my high buy Christmas present one year in the early 2010s.

    I believe in getting a Tetanus booster every 10 years.

    However I have a strong policy against the vaccines manufactured for URIs, that started in 2012 when I was sickened for 4 months essentially for the third straight year with flu and post-flu bronchitis after receiving the flu shot each year. In the past, I hadn't received flu shots most falls, and weren't sickened all spring the following year. Simply by personal experience and experience of those surrounding me, the statistical truth is that the annual seasonal flu shot doesn't work, and weakens your immune system for other URIs not influenza such as rhinoviruses and coronaviruses, most of which are classified under "common cold" but can hit very hard especially if you have a weakened immune system from an underlying condition or overvaccination of URI doses, pre-2021 essentially limited to the flu shot and in the case of Spring 2010, the H1N1 vaccine (I never got that one, but I did know someone in late 9th grade who did, and she ended with with a large welt on her shoulder which didn't go away for nearly a month. Bottom line... URI "vaccines" weaken immune systems and make manufacturers rich. The epitome of crony capitalism and the rigged system which makes the wealthy BigPharma elite and medical provider companies and insurance companies rich and the people poorer and sicker. Keep the life expectancy at ~80 years per person and no higher as part of a greater NWO population control philosophy (and also keep social security and medicare costs under control). But I've known that well since 2013, and ACA was affirmation of this. ACA did next to nothing but make insurance companies and providers rich and the general populace poorer.

    I've been anti- URI vaccine for 7-8+ years before covid existed, and have had tetanus booster as recently as 2019... so don't label me antivaxxer or lump me in the q- boat.



    Stare decisis... show me the last example when the speaker wasn't an elected house rep?

    Similar to impeachment and conviction of a previous president. If there had been a previous example, e.g. Nixon during the Ford administration, then it would have made sense to convict Trump.
    tl;dr

    Please keep being antivaxxers, MAGA s

  17. #617
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    B.S.

    DeSantis is the highly educated, anti-woke king and tactful leader that appeals to independents.

    He is a not a narcissistic buffoon that demands allegiance to himself.
    Sure he is, he won't let "unfriendly" reporters attend his public announcements and he tried to muzzle UF profs last year to prevent them from testifying as experts against his policies in court.

    DeSantis is famously thin-skinned and intolerant of contradiction, looks like you've got a new political ikon.

  18. #618
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
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    222-213 (GOP majority) seems like the most likely scenario for final House numbers as per NYT

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...&region=NavBar
    That's the GOP's ceiling but it's unlikely since it'd require CA-13 to go red.

  19. #619
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
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    Dems dragged their feet and impeached him a week later. I am referring to the immediate sentiment after Jan 6th when everyone and their momma was saying Trump was disgraceful.
    GMAFB

    McConnell literally said that the senate was in recess so there was no point in bringing it any earlier than they did. Even ignoring that, you're saying it's the Democrats' fault that the senate GOP couldn't find 17 senators who were either retiring, had just been re-elected, already hated Trump, etc. to provide enough votes to convict.

    Do you not realize how parody level it sounds to blame Democrats for the GOP deciding to vote a certain way?

  20. #620
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
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    B.S.

    DeSantis is the highly educated, anti-woke king and tactful leader that appeals to independents.

    He is a not a narcissistic buffoon that demands allegiance to himself.
    His COVID policy is why he won independents in Florida imo...no one votes on woke policy.

  21. #621
    🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆 ElNono's Avatar
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    Pledging allegiance to Trump and an alternate reality is no-go going forward and the electorate made that clear. I have a few Trumper friends who are exceptional people, but still can't see WTF is going on here enough to step back and reassess, logically.

    We just have to figure out how to keep him from an independent run and Perot type spoiler.
    Uh? He's gonna announce Wednesday he's running in 2024 and the entire party will align behind him. He's your Frankenstein but you realistically can't purge him out without losing significant amount of rural, non-college graduate and boomer votes.

    The best chance you have to save the GOP from him is if the DOJ ends up sending him to prison, tbh...

  22. #622
    Kang Trill Clinton's Avatar
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    I hope Trump runs 3rd party to give Biden the easy win in 2024.

  23. #623
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
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    I hope Trump runs 3rd party to give Biden the easy win in 2024.
    He won't even need to run...if he tells his base to stay home, that'll give Dems a massive victory

  24. #624
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    Uh? He's gonna announce Wednesday he's running in 2024 and the entire party will align behind him. He's your Frankenstein but you realistically can't purge him out without losing significant amount of rural, non-college graduate and boomer votes.

    The best chance you have to save the GOP from him is if the DOJ ends up sending him to prison, tbh...
    he'd only come back as a zombie martyr of the deep state, & therefore as a new object for veneration.

  25. #625
    Still Hates Small Ball Spurminator's Avatar
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    He won't even need to run...if he tells his base to stay home, that'll give Dems a massive victory
    Yeah but he can't grift more campaign contributions if he doesn't run.

    Edit: Actually, I guess anything's possible with these people.

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