How We Can Successfully Primary-Out Trump in 2024?

[ElNono]

Simply put.....

Both the (D)s and (R)s are hypocrites on the "My Body My Choice" debate

The (D)s think it should apply to abortion, but not masks and vaccines

No, not really. This is actually a really dumb view of this. Masks and vaccines go well beyond "your body", they largely prevent spread of diseases.

Nobody but the absolute fringe questioned vaccines before COVID.

Which is completely different from abortion. A decisions that's strictly personal.

That's why libertarianism is the way to go. End big government

Stupid stuff like that is why libertarianism is not footed in reality and why it never won or will win at anything.

[baseline bum]

I also travel 30000-60000 miles a year and care about other things such as gas and food prices not to go up. So, yeah. And I'd prefer it if >97% of the population stayed normal, i.e. not LGBTQ+, like the good old days the "others" should be a fringe group and the exception, not the norm. And I don't believe in big government, whether it be surveillance, the "[anti] Patriot Act", TSA, gun control, or regulating your thermostat i.e. restricting your personal comfort. And just as government protects consumers and employees/contractors from discrimination based on race and religion, etc. they should also protect the individual's right to choose to or not to wear a mask and to or not to have taken specific vaccines. Basically I'm a classic libertarian but I do believe in consumer protection activism, basic fundamental concepts such as maintaining long-term price stability, and that big business monopoly should not be allowed to restrict or hire or fire based on restricting individual freedom and liberties.

I don't agree with 80% of anything either party has to offer; I simply side with the lesser of the two evils, per-se. Which is why the myriad single-issue voters, i.e. the armada of 20-something college girls that came out and voted based on freedom of abortion alone this midterm cycle, should not be allowed to vote until they learn where both and all sides stand on all the issues. But I digress.

GTFO you have been a huge Trump cheerleader here for years

[Millennial_Messiah]

No, not really. This is actually a really dumb view of this. Masks and vaccines go well beyond "your body", they largely prevent spread of diseases.

Which is, once again, a personal choice. The neo-Marxist "muh others" argument is the epitome of collectivism and the an hesis of the John Locke principles on which the USA was founded upon.

[Winehole23]

Which is, once again, a personal choice. The neo-Marxist "muh others" argument is the epitome of collectivism and the an hesis of the John Locke principles on which the USA was founded upon.

which principles, profe?

[ElNono]

Which is, once again, a personal choice. The neo-Marxist "muh others" argument is the epitome of collectivism and the an hesis of the John Locke principles on which the USA was founded upon.

No it isn't a personal choice when your choice causes death and disease to millions of others.

You couldn't be more wrong about the principles the USA was founded upon. As a matter of fact the founding fathers handed the security and wellbeing of the nation specifically to the newly minted federal government. First thing they mention in the ing pre-amble of the Cons ution no less:

We the people of the United States, in order to form a more perfect union, establish justice, insure domestic tranquility, provide for the common defense, promote the general welfare, and secure the blessings of liberty to ourselves and our posterity, do ordain and establish this Cons ution for the United States of America.

[Millennial_Messiah]

No it isn't a personal choice when your choice causes death and disease to millions of others..

"MuH oTHeRs"

That's not even *woke*, that's straight-up communism.

Individualism over collectivism, to the end. Give me liberty or give me death

[ElNono]

"MuH oTHeRs"

That's not even *woke*, that's straight-up communism.

Individualism over collectivism, to the end. Give me liberty or give me death

You just can't grab a gun, mow down a bunch of people and call it muh individualism/muh freedom. Doesn't work that way, never has.

But this is the level with stupid people...

[Will Hunting]

It's expansionary / Keynesian / inflationary fiscal economic policy, consistent with the 2020 and later stimulus bull manure piles.

What we need now to fix the economy is major contractionary economic policy, from both the fiscal and monetary side.



What do you consider to be "locked in"? +15? +20? +10?

Because places like Dayton, Toledo, and Akron are very blue -- but the outer parts of their counties are both quite populated and very red, so if you have to draw the whole county together you end up getting quite purple districts.

Depends on how the area is trending. Northeast Ohio for example prolly just needs to be Trump +10 because it’s sprinting right, while a district with the Columbus suburbs prolly needs to be Trump +15 or better.

I’ll send an 11-4 map that complies with the Ohio cons ution later, pretty easy to draw.

[Millennial_Messiah]

Depends on how the area is trending. Northeast Ohio for example prolly just needs to be Trump +10 because it’s sprinting right, while a district with the Columbus suburbs prolly needs to be Trump +15 or better.

I’ll send an 11-4 map that complies with the Ohio cons ution later, pretty easy to draw.

Yeah I left the original 14th district alone because it's only R+11 but it's far NE OH (Ashtabula, Trumbull, Lake, Portage)


That's very good analysis... since Delaware County seems to be becoming a tech hub and thus bucking the trend of the rest of the state

[Will Hunting]

Yeah I left the original 14th district alone because it's only R+11 but it's far NE OH (Ashtabula, Trumbull, Lake, Portage)


That's very good analysis... since Delaware County seems to be becoming a tech hub and thus bucking the trend of the rest of the state

This is probably the most aggressive gerrymander that complies with all of the non-subjective rules around redistricting



There actually is a way to draw Cincinnati out, but doing it would piss in bents off and it would be so ridiculous looking that the Ohio supreme court could very well overturn it even with an R majority. This map could even get overturned by the Ohio SC because some of the conservative justices have indicated in their previous dissents that the partisan fairness rule does at least require a certain amount of Biden won districts.

[Millennial_Messiah]

This is probably the most aggressive gerrymander that complies with all of the non-subjective rules around redistricting



There actually is a way to draw Cincinnati out, but doing it would piss in bents off and it would be so ridiculous looking that the Ohio supreme court could very well overturn it even with an R majority. This map could even get overturned by the Ohio SC because some of the conservative justices have indicated in their previous dissents that the partisan fairness rule does at least require a certain amount of Biden won districts.

Good analysis

Can you please also post the summary statistics and which numbers are which districts? From DRA, like I do

That's a good map. I do think that OH-15 district could flip because it ingests the west half of Columbus, which is less blue than the central / east and northern parts but still a lot of blue precincts. I also think the Democrat in bent could potentially hold in that pinkish district south of Cleveland. I would argue that Akron/Canton are not the same as Youngstown/Warren in terms of trending red and we saw that in the midterms. The GOP candidate was favored and the Democrat won. Summit/Stark is still both more black and remains more democrat than the Trumbull/Mahoning area.

And somehow Marcy Kaptur with all her billions in stashed away campaign funds over the last 42 years would find a way to win the Toledo seat even if it's R+10. (I wouldn't be surprised)

Honestly that map would probably be the best case for the GOP that could actually be approved by the Ohio court system, especially because it keeps Cincinnati blue and gives the new Akron/Canton area in bent Democrat a chance to win. Kaptur is obviously the biggest loser of that map but she's very hard to beat. Doesn't matter if it's Majewski or a RINO or anything in between, Kaptur is a career 21-0 in her seat based around Toledo for a reason.

[Millennial_Messiah]

Will Hunting I do think that both sides would be pretty happy with a solid 9-6 map for Ohio considering that's pretty accurate in terms of the partisan lean of the state. The problem is that because of the re ed new rules of the cons ution you can't really draw a lot of red or blue districts like before. In particular the Summit County area where it's very hard to draw any district that's not purple within the boundaries of the cons ution. Realistically for example, Akron has much more in common with Toledo or outer Cuyahoga than it does Warren or Youngstown which are pretty much blue dog white trash Obama-Trump voter MAGA territory while Akron and Toledo have sizeable ghetto n!gger populations which will never vote red.

I believe I miscounted actually in my earlier post. You drew a 12-3 map or 11-3-1 realistically, not 11-4.

I think for the 4th district you could easily just make that bluer by drawing in Canton together with Summit County.

[Will Hunting]

Will Hunting I do think that both sides would be pretty happy with a solid 9-6 map for Ohio considering that's pretty accurate in terms of the partisan lean of the state. The problem is that because of the re ed new rules of the cons ution you can't really draw a lot of red or blue districts like before. In particular the Summit County area where it's very hard to draw any district that's not purple within the boundaries of the cons ution. Realistically for example, Akron has much more in common with Toledo or outer Cuyahoga than it does Warren or Youngstown which are pretty much blue dog white trash Obama-Trump voter MAGA territory while Akron and Toledo have sizeable ghetto n!gger populations which will never vote red.

I believe I miscounted actually in my earlier post. You drew a 12-3 map or 11-3-1 realistically, not 11-4.

I think for the 4th district you could easily just make that bluer by drawing in Canton together with Summit County.

IMO this is the fairest map you can draw.

There's really no way to draw 5 let alone 6 safe D seats in Ohio without doing some really weird stuff with Cuyahoga County.

[Millennial_Messiah]

IMO this is the fairest map you can draw.

There's really no way to draw 5 let alone 6 safe D seats in Ohio without doing some really weird stuff with Cuyahoga County.

Well thankfully for the Dems Kaptur is an electoral juggernaut and wins Trump-leaning seats by 13%


It's a clean map. I would definitely think 2 safe Democrats for Columbus makes sense, rather than drawing the west half into a red seat. I would also think the Dems would probably prefer sort of merging your 9 with 13 given trends... Lorain and Medina (pronounced in Ohioan with the hard "I" which is weird for me because I'm used to the standard/Hispanic pronounciation) aren't what they used to be in terms of blue dog support. 10 should be redder imo.

The less purple seats, the better.

[Winehole23]

Trumpism without Trump, compiled by the unironically dubbed America First Policy Ins ute:

https://agenda.americafirstpolicy.com/

[Spurminator]

[Will Hunting]

Kim Yee is actually a nutcase who spoke at the RNC in 2016 and endorsed Trump, she just won a down ballot race in an ancestrally Republican state.

The hype about her running in a real election (e.g. senate or governor) is hilarious.

[Millennial_Messiah]

Kim Yee is actually a nutcase who spoke at the RNC in 2016 and endorsed Trump, she just won a down ballot race in an ancestrally Republican state.

The hype about her running in a real election (e.g. senate or governor) is hilarious.

Karrin Taylor Robson would have won AZ by around 6-10% imo. Similar to whatever Ducey got in 2018

IMO for AZ senate 2024 you can go one of two routes... nominate someone like Ducey/Meghan McCain/Robson or you can go with someone like Andy Biggs or Paul Gosar, but either way Trump needs to stay the out of AZ.

However the one I'd be most confident would actually beat Sinema H2H is Meghan McCain. That family is beloved there especially among the military and older population.

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Karrin Taylor Robson would have won AZ by around 6-10% imo. Similar to whatever Ducey got in 2018

IMO for AZ senate 2024 you can go one of two routes... nominate someone like Ducey/Meghan McCain/Robson or you can go with someone like Andy Biggs or Paul Gosar, but either way Trump needs to stay the out of AZ.

However the one I'd be most confident would actually beat Sinema H2H is Meghan McCain. That family is beloved there especially among the military and older population.

I remember you using this same tactic of name dropping candidates right off RCP and acting confident in your preferred outcome of the red wave that just went opposite yesterday with the Walker loss capstone.

Now you are back with the con again. Nice.