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Embarrassing development for independents
Sinema switches to independent, shaking up the Senate
The Arizona senator won't say whether she's running for reelection but said in an interview she doesn't expect a change in how the Senate operates.
Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema is changing her party affiliation to independent, delivering a jolt to Democrats’ narrow majority and Washington along with it.
In a 45-minute interview, the first-term senator told POLITICO that she will not caucus with Republicans and suggested that she intends to vote the same way she has for four years in the Senate. “Nothing will change about my values or my behavior,” she said.
Provided that Sinema sticks to that vow, Democrats will still have a workable Senate majority in the next Congress, though it will not exactly be the neat and tidy 51 seats they assumed. They’re expected to also have the votes to control Senate committees. And Sinema’s move means Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) — a pivotal swing vote in the 50-50 chamber the past two years — will hold onto some but not all of his outsized influence in the Democratic caucus.
Sinema would not address whether she will run for reelection in 2024, and informed Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer of her decision on Thursday.
“I don’t anticipate that anything will change about the Senate structure,” Sinema said, adding that some of the exact mechanics of how her switch affects the chamber is “a question for Chuck Schumer … I intend to show up to work, do the same work that I always do. I just intend to show up to work as an independent.”
"independent"
Embarrassing development for independents
She knows in the next primary she’s going to get plowed harder than DarrinS’s daughter on a Friday night. Politically this was her best option to stay relevant.
Cinema was seeing partying with private equity and hedge fund people.
Maybe somebody else would buy her, but clearly she belongs to the oligarchy
At least there's no longer an excuse for Dems to fund her re-election bid...
Wasn't one for Cuellar's either but Pelosi was right there to crush the progressive in the race.
I miss her already
She's not the first to switch parties to try to remain relevant in her political future. Probably won't be the last. Democrats need to shore up their base and oust these DINOs.
Sinema's favorability is underwater with every cons uency but her corporate donors/beneficiaries. She's gonna lose if she runs for reelection.
Everyone in congress is either bought out when they come in and they can operate like "normal" or they are put in the finance committee. Once their they either become bought out or the banking lobby can easily primary them with more contributions than anyone theis side of Jeff Bezos could possibly hope to have.
Both parties have been doing this for at least 35 years. Ever since the banks went rabid following the SNL reregulation.
This isn't a problem unless she runs as an independent in 2024. She couldn't win Dem primary so this the only way she cost us that seat
Yeah but Cuellar’s tweets were so hilarious that I’m ok with it
Her favorability is in the toilet with every group. Even if she did run 3rd party (I don’t think she will), I don’t think it’s going to matter too much.
Cisneros would have outright lost to Cassy Garcia. TX-28 isn't a pro squad commie district.
If Sinema is out of the picture (or runs as a 3rd party), it should be a slam-dunk pickup for the GOP, assuming they don't run someone terrible like Lake or Masters again for AZ Senate. But, never count the GOP out to botch a slam dunk.
Need to run someone like Meghan McCain, Ducey, Biggs, Gosar. No more of these zero-experience no name people like Masters or Majewski, or washed up celebrities with zero experience like Dr. Oz and Herschel Walker.
Dems don't fund independent Bernie and he votes WITH the Dems
Sinema is finished, unless she can get the AZ Repugs to take her in.
Sinema as independent won't get any AZ Dem workers who got her elected as a progressive
I would move Herschel and run him in Arizona.
Make up a story he played for Arizona State.
Hershel actually founded, played for and owned the Arizona Cardinals winning the NFL MVP in its first year of existence in 1988.
This all had its genesis when Herschel convinced Donald Trump to get out of the USFL when Herschel bought the Cardinals.
I need the red team for help to make up more pure B involving Orange is the next Black Running Back.
"You know everyone says", should come before every statement of alternative fact.
Maybe, I mean even 5% could make a difference although if anyone could serve as senator and not even make 5% of people fans it would be her. Still can't believe she curtsied when thumbs downing the $15 minimum wage
Gosar would be just as bad given the way these right wing culture warriors like him fared last month. And McCain is a clear no-go since no way she motivates the base, that would just be handing the seat to the Democrats. Ducey would probably win the seat if he ran though.
Andy Biggs is less socially right wing than Gosar and he's a huge overperformer in his East Maricopa based fairly urban/suburban district. He would take both Maricopa and the senate seat. Agree with you on Gosar. As far as McCain, how would she appeal to the right wing base less than Ducey?
However, I would say that Gosar would have a chance and would have a unique advantage that most of the failed 2022 GOP swing election candidates, including Lake and Masters, didn't have: government experience. That was the biggest takeaway of the 2022 midterm election imo. Experience matters, and in that department more than any Trump got trumped. Look at down ballot and people like JR Majewski and John Gibbs. Zero experience "based" candidates that never stood a chance.
Last edited by Millennial_Messiah; 12-12-2022 at 09:22 PM.
I think she could do some damage as a independent, but it all depends on the quality of the Dem candidate, really. How many Herschel Walker's on your side?
Kyrsten Sinema will face 'white-hot fury' in Arizona if she runs again as an independent
Sinema's departure from the Democratic Party puts potential primary challengers in a difficult position.
most political observers agree she wants to avoid a primary challenge and is basically daring Democrats to call her bluff
Sinema needs only 43,00 signatures to appear on the November 2024 ballot, and
Democrats have indicated they win run someone against her --
even at the risk of splitting the vote and allowing a Republican to sneak through.Sinema has a dismal 81-percent disapproval rating among the state's Democrats, and
actually has a higher approval rating with Republicans, and
Herstam believes the independent senator might actually peel off moderate GOP votes from a MAGA-style candidate.https://www.rawstory.com/kyrsten-sinema-primary-2024/
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/...ce-senate.html
this kind of stuff has rubbed people in Arizona the wrong way a lot more than out of state, armchair political commentators realize.
Arizona is a lean blue state that's getting bluer. Cope all you want by pretending muh candidate quality is the only reason the GOP loses in Arizona. Kelly winning by 5% wasn't just due to candidate quality, it was due to an increasingly bluer electorate.
Oh wow what a list
Meghan McCain -
Doug Ducey - The most recent national governor poll had him as the 2nd most unpopular governor in America (see below). His response to COVID was indecisive and weak. If he'd responded to COVID the way DeSantis or Kemp did then he'd have high approvals and would be a great candidate but he's damaged goods now. He's managed to piss basically everybody off, and that's because the worst thing politicians (esp ones with executive power) can do is be indecisive. Whitmer was decisive in lockdowns/minimizing the spread, while DeSantis/Kemp were decisive in opening their state back up, and they all solidly won re-election. The median voter subconsciously cares more about strong decisiveness than actual policy.
https://morningconsult.com/2022/10/1...d-of-midterms/
Paul Gosar - This is probably the dumbest one. Gosar clearly has a neurological disorder that he's trying to hide & is only getting worse. He also said he supports Trump's idea of suspending the cons ution + he's openly friends with Nick Fuentes. He's basically patient zero in terms of Arizona Republicans who belong in an insane asylum. Sinema would take more votes from him she would than any democrat.
Andy Biggs - Addressed below:
Biggs' district is suburban/exurban; it's not "urban" at all. It has Gilbert & western Mesa (both suburbs & heavily Mormon), and he has the ruby red Phoenix exurbs that stretch into Pinal County (Cave Creek, Apache Junction and San Tan Valley).
The fact he "overperforms" the top of the ticket doesn't mean he's a good candidate. More or less every down ballot Republican in Arizona overperforms the top of the ticket, that's just how shifts from one party to the other work; they happen at the top of the ticket before they happen down ballot. It's the same reason Mooney massively "underperformed" Trump's margin in his WV district or why the Arkansas state leg was under Dem control until 2013. With Biggs, his overperformance is even more idiosyncratic to his district because of the never-Trump Mormons who'll vote for him because he's Mormon no matter how crazy he acts. You can't assume that appeal would be across the entire state, he's a unique fit for his district.
Also yes Biggs is less right wing than Gosar but he's anything but a moderate. He's called for abolishing the filibuster to pass a federal ban on abortion, was one of only like 10 reps who voted against making Juneteenth a national holiday, is staunchly against gay marriage, etc...you can't really argue that he's anything short of a firebrand conservative on social/cultural issues.
That being said, Biggs is probably the AZGOP's best candidate with a nonzero chance of running, but that doesn't mean he's a good candidate and it's still doubtful he would ever run. He enjoys being an unserious freedom caucus mongoloid who doesn't have to do anything, and he's only in it for himself. He's not someone who's gonna put his future in congress in jeopardy just to be a team player.
Majewski and Gibbs lost because they were ing morons with re ed views. Maybe the lack of experience hurt, but John Gibbs trying to run in a Biden +9 district as someone who believes that Democrats eat babies and as someone who's campaign website had rhetoric about 12% of the population / 50% of the crime the way your typical white nationalist website does was a much bigger problem for him than his lack of experience.
Majewski meanwhile was at a Trump rally in Dayton hundreds of miles from his district the night before the election. That's not an experience problem, it's a "wanting to be a national right wing figure who gives speeches to huge crowds instead of a congressman who represents the greater Toledo area" problem.
Last edited by Will Hunting; 12-15-2022 at 11:57 AM.
All that points to Biggs being the best candidate and someone who would have an excellent shot at winning.
All those old guard conservative politics are consistent with Bush, McCain, Romney etc... pre Trump, pre QAnon GOP. All of those candidates performed excellently well in Arizona before 2018. You have to think that never-Trump Mormon vote bloc in East Maricopa specifically cost McSally, Trump, and Lake the elections, so just that shift could certainly pull Biggs past the finish line.
Plus you mentioned decisiveness and that's exactly what AZ is going to be pissed off at Katie Hobbs over in a couple years, especially with regards to the border immigration crisis etc. You mentioned that DeSantis/Kemp/Abbott were all decisive in one direction on Covid and Whitmer/Evers/Wolf (Shapiro is an extension of Wolf's policy) were all decisive in the opposite direction, but someone like Ducey was indecisive. Well Hobbs seems like another one of those center left types that will piss off AZ and be indecisive and be a one term governor. Lake was too radical, but one thing that she would have been is decisive. She would have definitely won a second term if she won the first term.
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