Relatively strong in bent Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) retires

[Millennial_Messiah]

Announcing she's retiring at the end of 2024 and won't seek re-election. No special election, but it goes from a 80/20 Dem hold likelihood to a pure toss up now.

Depends on candidate quality now

[Will Hunting]

pure tossup

you're delusional

[Millennial_Messiah]

pure tossup

you're delusional

Like I said, depends on candidate quality, and also to an extent who's on the POTUS ticket in 2024. Whitmer will likely prop up her good friend Alyssa Slotkin, but who knows. Debbie Dingell and others are interested. Haley Stevens and the guy who Jewish lost in the primary to her, Levin. If they nominate someone radical like Talib they will lose.

I think someone like experienced like Bill Huizenga or Lisa McClain could win. The GOP would be stupid to put up John James again or any of the 2022 losers at any level, also James Craig would be a bad choice. I don't think Peter Meijer has much appeal in East Michigan. He'd take back the West Michigan counties but perform poorly in a place like Macomb.

[Will Hunting]

Like I said, depends on candidate quality, and also to an extent who's on the POTUS ticket in 2024. Whitmer will likely prop up her good friend Alyssa Slotkin, but who knows. Debbie Dingell and others are interested. Haley Stevens and the guy who Jewish lost in the primary to her, Levin. If they nominate someone radical like Talib they will lose.

I think someone like experienced like Bill Huizenga or Lisa McClain could win. The GOP would be stupid to put up John James again or any of the 2022 losers at any level, also James Craig would be a bad choice. I don't think Peter Meijer has much appeal in East Michigan. He'd take back the West Michigan counties but perform poorly in a place like Macomb.

I agree mostly with this I guess. Big Rashida would probably lose but there’s no chance she’d win a primary. Slotkin, Dingell and Levin would all be great, especially Levin given the statewide name recognition.

You’re also right about Meijer, he has no appeal outside of his old district.

In general tho the Michigan GOP has a rebuilding project ahead of it before it’s compe ive again statewide, especially with the new voting laws the state leg is about to ram through.

[pgardn]

M and M has his own definition of candidate quality and its probably orange to red in color if the truth is told.

[ElNono]

Another geriatric member retires

[Millennial_Messiah]

I agree mostly with this I guess. Big Rashida would probably lose but there’s no chance she’d win a primary. Slotkin, Dingell and Levin would all be great, especially Levin given the statewide name recognition.

You’re also right about Meijer, he has no appeal outside of his old district.

In general tho the Michigan GOP has a rebuilding project ahead of it before it’s compe ive again statewide, especially with the new voting laws the state leg is about to ram through.

I'd say Slotkin would be the favorite considering

-her experience in the Obama admin with foreign policy
-her close ties to Whitmer
-her relative young age

I guess what works against her is that she's not the quintessential Michigander like Whitmer, having been born and raised in NYC and only having fairly recently moved to Oakland County MI (which is not part of her district, even though it's legal).

Dingell is just another legacy like Kildee who's only in place because of her husband, and both her and Levin are not much younger than Stabenow.

I agree the MI GOP has a lot of rebuilding to do as their system in place had been flawed and frail and weak for a few decades and showed a ton of weakness in 2022 and now they're left at rock bottom. The thing about Michigan is that unlike in a place like Georgia or even Virginia or Arizona (states with heavy suburban population but low exurban and rural, especially in the case of AZ), the demographics -are- actually there for the Republicans to win consistently in Michigan, they have just consistently underperformed with rural whites throughout the state, which are typically GOP voter blocs in most other states. They don't lose those counties, but they don't win by dictator margins like they do in say, Ohio. The GOP has a ton of room to grow in the state if they'd improve their messaging and give up on abortion and similar religious stuff. Detroit doesn't have nearly the power/population control over the state the way that, say, Chicago does over Illinois, Phoenix over Arizona, or Atlanta over Georgia.

[Millennial_Messiah]

kin choked too

[Millennial_Messiah]

kin choked too

& with the final vote dump alyssa Slotkin wins the Senate seat. But, winning by 0.3% is still way less than the polls showed all along.

Rogers in his concession speech hints that he will run again against Peters, basically do what McCormick did in PA, lose in 2022 in an open seat election year and came back stronger in 2024 to beat an in bent. Made reference to the Detroit Lions and how they lost narrowly in the championship game last year and came back stronger this year. I think he's still a good candidate and he should beat Peters if he's funded properly. He wasn't funded properly this year, but with less Senate targets in 2026 and a more competent GOP than in the Ronna McDaniel years there's a couple flip opportunities, mainly michigan and Georgia especially if Kemp runs that's a flip.

GOP isn't playing much defense in the senate either in 2026 though Tillis's seat might be slightly worrisome depending on who the Dem candidate is, if it's Cooper then Tillis could be in a dogfight, if it's someone awful of the Cheri Beasley ilk then Tillis wins easily. Susan Collins's seat you'd think would be in trouble but ranked choice voting is designed to save that type of in bent.