Big Board 1.0: First Look at Who the San Antonio Spurs Will Target in the Lottery

[Mr. Body]

Spurs have probably dodged dozens of bullets doing just that.

Back in 1986, the GSW drafted an amazing talented big man named Chris Washburn out of North Carolina State with the 3rd overall pick. . He lasted a season and a half before being traded to Atlanta for some player and no picks. He played the rest of that season, was suspended the following season, and banned for life for substance abuse before season four. Someone asked rival ACC coach Dean Smith where he would have drafted Chris, and he said he wouldn’t have. Having recruited him, he knew he had a hornets nest of drug problems. Everyone knew, and Golden State drafted him anyway, wasting the #3 overall pick.

Moral of the story: sidestep land mines.

It's the argument about character all over again. This isn't a video game. You don't pick a talented player if they have warning signs. It's too expensive, you may waste your pick, and it's corrosive to the team environment. The Spurs have an unusual history in getting nailed by two people who supposedly had high character. The hardworking, quiet Kawhi, who stabbed them in the back. The supposed choirboy Primo, who couldn't keep it in his pants.

[Ariel]

Correct me if I am wrong, but this scenario would mean we get #33, but we also get #33 if we both stay in the Top 4, but get the higher pick.

Five Scenarios:

Both Drop Out of Top 4 = Spurs Get 32
Spurs Drop Out of Top 4, Rockets Stay In = Spurs Get 32
Spurs Stay In Top 4, Rockets Drop Out = Spurs Get 33
Both Teams Stay In Top 4, Rockets Pick Higher = Spurs Get 32
Both Teams Stay in Top 4, Spurs Pick Higher = Spurs Get 33

We could of course calculate out all these probabilities, but I'm not going to take the time

Yup, correct. The chances both the Spurs and Rockets fall outside of top 4 are approx. 20.0226% (not 23% as stated above by someone else, because those are not independent events thus you cannot get the joint probability by multiplying the marginal probabilities). In that 20% Houston gets the better 1st and the Spurs the better 2nd. In the remaining 80% half the times Houston comes on top and half the times and we do the rest (resulting in 40%-40%), since they have the same odds at each slot and a tiebreaker isn't necessary (#2 or #3 are equivalent in this case). So basically 40% of the time the Spurs the lowest first (and thus highest second) and viceversa the remaining 60% of the time.

[Ariel]

What we actually do know is that in the in the second round the spurs will have either the 32nd or 33rd pick plus Toronto's 2nd round pick. If you can make it more simple, please do.

I already posted it in this thread. I don't think it's that difficult to follow:

In what pertains the 2nd rounder 32/33: If we win the coin flip today, we have 40% at #32, and 60% at #33 If we lose, it's the other way around.

We lost, thus we have 60% at #33 and 40% at #32. Not rocket science.

[daslicer]

It's the argument about character all over again. This isn't a video game. You don't pick a talented player if they have warning signs. It's too expensive, you may waste your pick, and it's corrosive to the team environment. The Spurs have an unusual history in getting nailed by two people who supposedly had high character. The hardworking, quiet Kawhi, who stabbed them in the back. The supposed choirboy Primo, who couldn't keep it in his pants.

I think to some degree getting guys who are good character is a crapshoot, but you still run away from the obvious toxic characters such as a guy with a criminal history.

[DPG21920]

Tbh I have a feeling if Houston picked 2nd and we picked 3rd, it would be good news for us since I don’t think they would select Scoot.

I would be shocked at a team passing on Scoot tbh..I know there’s chatter, especially on teams with guards, but I’m not sure. I only think maybe DET *might* since Cade/Ivey look very good. Even then not sure.

I don’t care if Spurs have to pay some, I’m all for trading up if SA is pick 3 and a team is willing to sell pick 2.

[mo7888]

I would be shocked at a team passing on Scoot tbh..I know there’s chatter, especially on teams with guards, but I’m not sure. I only think maybe DET *might* since Cade/Ivey look very good. Even then not sure.

I don’t care if Spurs have to pay some, I’m all for trading up if SA is pick 3 and a team is willing to sell pick 2.

Nobody is passing on Scoot at 2..

[DPG21920]

Nobody is passing on Scoot at 2..

Agree.

[Ariel]

Tbh I have a feeling if Houston picked 2nd and we picked 3rd, it would be good news for us since I don’t think they would select Scoot.

Given their need for a real PG, I'd be absolutely SHOCKED if that's the case. But its Houston, so who knows. Lets hope.

[Ariel]

Spurs have probably dodged dozens of bullets doing just that.

Back in 1986, the GSW drafted an amazing talented big man named Chris Washburn out of North Carolina State with the 3rd overall pick. . He lasted a season and a half before being traded to Atlanta for some player and no picks. He played the rest of that season, was suspended the following season, and banned for life for substance abuse before season four. Someone asked rival ACC coach Dean Smith where he would have drafted Chris, and he said he wouldn’t have. Having recruited him, he knew he had a hornets nest of drug problems. Everyone knew, and Golden State drafted him anyway, wasting the #3 overall pick.

Moral of the story: sidestep land mines.

Len Bias too. Different times, but still, point remains.

[BackHome]

Houston wants to be a factor on ESPN fake news so no way in are they going to trade out of the 2nd pick and if they get it it is going to be Scoot Henderson.

[Ariel]

I think the teams at 2 would get split this way:
Team Scoot: Houston, Spurs, Orlando, Washington, Chicago
Team Miller: Detroit, Charlotte, Indiana, Dallas (might trade the pick away, though), OKC
Who knows: Portland (depending on what they're trying to do with Dame), Utah (could use both), Toronto (should be Scoot but Masai has a hard on for 6'9"+ wings), New Orleans (need shooting but could also use a franchise PG to build around).

[SpurPadre]

So, the tiebreaker still hasn't been set between us and the Rockets?

[DPG21920]

So, the tiebreaker still hasn't been set between us and the Rockets?

It has. HOU won so they get 2nd best odds. Spurs get 3rd.

[SpurPadre]

It has. HOU won so they get 2nd best odds. Spurs get 3rd.

.

[Thomas82]

It has. HOU won so they get 2nd best odds. Spurs get 3rd.

I'm not upset at all that the Spurs lost the coin flip. I would rather have our good luck be used on winning the lottery.

[slick'81]

I'm not upset at all that the Spurs lost the coin flip. I would rather have our good luck be used on winning the lottery.

top 3 is still within reach

[exstatic]

top 3 is still within reach

No odds within the top FOUR places have changed. Portland increased their Wemby odds from 9% to 10.5%. Chicago increased their Wemby Odds from 1.5% to 2%, but more importantly, increased their top 4 odds from 7.2% to 9.4%, and if they make the jump, they keep their pick this year.

[slick'81]

No odds within the top FOUR places have changed. Portland increased their Wemby odds from 9% to 10.5%. Chicago increased their Wemby Odds from 1.5% to 2%, but more importantly, increased their top 4 odds from 7.2% to 9.4%, and if they make the jump, they keep their pick this year.

damn thats not a bad outcome for chi town

[R. DeMurre]

I can absolutely see someone passing on Scoot in an Ainge-like 2017 move where a team picks up a nice asset to move back and grab a better modern profile (>6'7", versatile defense, 3pt shooting) to let some other team build around a 6'2" <can't miss> PG with underwhelming impact stats a la Markelle Fultz...

[Mr. Body]

I can absolutely see someone passing on Scoot in an Ainge-like 2017 move where a team picks up a nice asset to move back and grab a better modern profile (>6'7", versatile defense, 3pt shooting) to let some other team build around a 6'2" <can't miss> PG with underwhelming impact stats a la Markelle Fultz...

It could be us!

[K...]

On the other hand, Sacramento is going to the second round with De'aron fox and sabonis. It doesn't take much to get that level of talent but passing on guards looking for Curry level of HOF talent is dumb. Just find a plausible all star and try to build a team from that

Also who is this good shooting good defense SF /PF that Won't go top 3?

[lefty20]

It has. HOU won so they get 2nd best odds. Spurs get 3rd.

That's a ed up system. By my count, that coin toss gave Houston one more W than the Spurs. Meaning the 2nd slot should be ours by right.

NBA dumb as , tbh.

/s

[JPB]

On the other hand, Sacramento is going to the second round with De'aron fox and sabonis. It doesn't take much to get that level of talent but passing on guards looking for Curry level of HOF talent is dumb. Just find a plausible all star and try to build a team from that

Also who is this good shooting good defense SF /PF that Won't go top 3?

That's as much telling about the the state of the WC than SAC overall quality tbh. They have a nice little team, and they could upgrade down the road, but you're not winning anything with Sabonis and Fox as your top dogs.

[duncan2150]

I can absolutely see someone passing on Scoot in an Ainge-like 2017 move where a team picks up a nice asset to move back and grab a better modern profile (>6'7", versatile defense, 3pt shooting) to let some other team build around a 6'2" <can't miss> PG with underwhelming impact stats a la Markelle Fultz...

Ja Morant or D Fox are not bad players imo.....

[Thomas82]

top 3 is still within reach

Yeah I know....I'm just saying that I'm not upset about losing the coin flip because the end result in the lottery is way more important.