Article: Estimating Tre Jones' Next Contract

[John B]

Tyus is getting about 14.5 a year for two years. I think Tre gets the same.

[DAF86]

The cap has ballooned lately. 10m is mid level give or take.

Mid level this year (league average salary) is $12.4M.

Well, I don't think Tre is mid level, tbh. I would just wait and see if any team offers him something. I don't see teams showing much interest, tbh. In the scenario he doesn't get any offer (I don't know if that's realistic), what's the least the Spurs can re-sign him for, those 5.2 millions?

[exstatic]

how often are teams burning all or nearly all of their MLE on a guy projected to be their backup PG?

You’re not asking the right question. Yes, I would pay a rotation player a below average salary.

[DAF86]

Tyus wasn't the starter and signed his contract years ago. Jones may be a backup, but he's not now. The team doesn't have a ton of leverage on him. Completely different situation than Tyus, who was at best in a position like Zach Collins is now.

No leverage needed, tbh. Just wait and see what kind of offers (if any) Tre gets and then just analyze if you're willing to match that or not. I really don't see an undersize, non-shooting, below average playmaker getting much interest in today's NBA, tbh. You are better off taking a chance on any non-drafted guy.

[Chinook]

Listen, you can disagree with me all you want, but you seem to have a habit of calling people dishonest (or their portrayal of a given situation) when you don't agree with their takes (I can search you if you want proof), and if anything that description fits your comment that conveniently disregarded the cir stances under which each one was starting or not. So before making such a comment, look inwards and check if you're not projecting.

It's dishonest to portray Tre as fighting for minutes with Wesley. It just is. It doesn't matter if me saying that offends you. I didn't say you were a bad person or disingenuous poster. But your comment was a dishonest way of phrasing a situation in an attempt to dismiss my argument for why Tre can ask for more money than Tyus got. Memphis wasn't going to give Tyus a big deal to back up their superstar. The Spurs may have a hard time trying to convince their starting PG to take backup money if they don't intend to start anyone over him.

You're riding with the idea if the Spurs should compare Tre to other guards in terms of skills and just sign Tre to whatever value matches that. But that's not how it works. Tre's representation is going to try to get him as much as they can, and the Spurs will have to balance out giving him enough money with the risk of losing him, or at least alienating him if they use their RoFR to suppress offers that might at least give him a chance to go to a better situation. I think they should take that chance, but I suspect they'll pay him low-end starter money on a shorter deal. That's not $10 Million a year or less in today's NBA. If they get him for less then I'll be wrong, but I won't be sad.

In general, I tend to make it clear when I'm talking about a person or a person's point. I don't have an issue with you and think you're a fine poster. I do not apologize for criticizing your comparison. I do apologize that it came off as a personal attack. That was not my intention. I should've put more nuance into it, but I'm on my phone and didn't want to type that out.

[DAF86]

It's dishonest to portray Tre as fighting for minutes with Wesley. It just is. It doesn't matter if me saying that offends you. I didn't say you were a bad person or disingenuous poster. But your comment was a dishonest way of phrasing a situation in an attempt to dismiss my argument for why Tre can ask for more money than Tyus got. Memphis wasn't going to give Tyus a big deal to back up their superstar. The Spurs may have a hard time trying to convince their starting PG to take backup money if they don't intend to start anyone over him.

You're riding with the idea if the Spurs should compare Tre to other guards in terms of skills and just sign Tre to whatever value matches that. But that's not how it works. Tre's representation is going to try to get him as much as they can, and the Spurs will have to balance out giving him enough money with the risk of losing him, or at least alienating him if they use their RoFR to suppress offers that might at least give him a chance to go to a better situation. I think they should take that chance, but I suspect they'll pay him low-end starter money on a shorter deal. That's not $10 Million a year or less in today's NBA. If they get him for less then I'll be wrong, but I won't be sad.

In general, I tend to make it clear when I'm talking about a person or a person's point. I don't have an issue with you and think you're a fine poster. I do not apologize for criticizing your comparison. I do apologize that it came off as a personal attack. That was not my intention. I should've put more nuance into it, but I'm on my phone and didn't want to type that out.

There's really no risk in losing Tre ing Jones, tbh. Like non at all.

I know Pop might want to retain him because of continuity and locker room presence and blah, blah, but the kid is just extremely limited at basketball. There's no scenario where he's getting an offer of 10 millions per year, but if any team is crazy enough to do it, then you just let him walk and replace him with any other dime a dozen backup PG.

[DAF86]

For real folks, we are talking about Tre Jones. C'mon now.

[LeBowen]

Yeah, he seems like a great kid and is a solid player, but his ceiling is really low due to lack of both size and range.

I'd offer him 32/4 at the most. Maybe some bonuses if he improves his shot.

[spurraider21]

You’re not asking the right question. Yes, I would pay a rotation player a below average salary.

"below average salary" could mean a lot of things. it could mean 10 mil per year. it could mean 3. so to justify a big contract, yeah you could frame it that way. i mean yes, i'd also be glad to pay Tre a below average salary. but not the same below average salary that you would

average salary figures are also heavily skewed by the monster players on huge contracts. the median nba salary, on the other hand, is right around 4 mil per year.

for a guy who is going to be, what the 7th/8th best player on his team at his highest aspiration, he'd be the median player on the club

[PrimeMinister]

doesn't really have an obvious suitor with cap space that will overpay.... unless they try to get his brother or maybe monte morris via trade he's coming back. low risk contract for a rotation player who will play whatever role the team needs without complaint depending on what other players might pass him up in coming seasons.

[slick'81]

Still a uva 2nd pick for sa

[spurraider21]

Still a uva 2nd pick for sa

oh, definitely

even if we let him walk id say that was a successful pick. our only 2nd rounder to be a rotation player since the 2009 draft when we took blair/nando

[spurraider21]

i dno man, if Tre Jones looked like exactly the same player, but was just coming off his rookie deal with another team, say, Washington... would we really be going into this offseason thinking "yeah lets go get that guy for 4/40 right now, thats what our team needs"?

i dont see it

[JPB]

Tre wasn't fighting for minutes with anyone. That's dishonestly portraying the situation. Tre is a starter and is going to ask for a starter's salary. Tyus signed knowing he was a backup. There was no talk of Wesley taking the nod. If the Spurs bring in a capable PG, the leverage calculation will change. But for now, the Spurs have no business asking him to be paid like they don't value him while they apparently value him enough to not get someone better.

And I want them to get someone better or at least another guy who could start like Micic. I want them to use cap and assets to attack their weaknesses. But if they "like what they have" then they're going to have to pay up for it.

Tre isn't a starter in the NBA in a vacuum and he wouldn't be for the length of whatever contract he would sign with the spurs. He's certainly not your starting PG in a compe ive, mush less a contending team and might not even be next season if the spurs pick up a vet PG this summer (who knows?)...

Spurs should defintiely play the patience game here and let things play out since I really don't believe he impressed many people in the NBA so far as a PG who can't shoot the 3 and I'm not sure may people would be ready to give him more than MLE money if at all... Anything over 10M is overpaying for the spurs. If Tre wants to stay, I wouldn't offer him more than a 3year/24-26M contract. just sign the qualifying offer and see what happens, over 10M/year, let him walk.

[DAF86]

i dno man, if Tre Jones looked like exactly the same player, but was just coming off his rookie deal with another team, say, Washington... would we really be going into this offseason thinking "yeah lets go get that guy for 4/40 right now, thats what our team needs"?

i dont see it

Of course not, that's why I found this thread so crazy. I thought I was way off on contract values, but no, folks are just overvaluing the heck out of Jones, starting from timvp.

[Degoat]

I like Tre Jones, he’s solid. What I don’t like is that Graham and Wesley are the only other PG options behind him. I guess Branham & Sochan can play some spot minutes at PG

[slick'81]

i dno man, if Tre Jones looked like exactly the same player, but was just coming off his rookie deal with another team, say, Washington... would we really be going into this offseason thinking "yeah lets go get that guy for 4/40 right now, thats what our team needs"?

i dont see it

yea,we're entering patty mills moneys

[spurraider21]

I like Tre Jones, he’s solid. What I don’t like is that Graham and Wesley are the only other PG options behind him. I guess Branham & Sochan can play some spot minutes at PG

since we didnt get one in the draft, i think the best case scenario is a 1 year Lowry rental if miami is looking to shed salary, either in general or as part of a potential Lillard deal. having just graham/wesley as the pure point guards on the roster does suck but i dont think you go there and overpay a whatever player like Tre Jones in response to that

[Extra Stout]

For real folks, we are talking about Tre Jones. C'mon now.

you can’t put a price tag on that corporate knowledge. it’s priceless.

[DAF86]

you can’t put a price tag on that corporate knowledge. it’s priceless.

I don't know if sarcastic but just in case, what corporate knowledge? 2nd worst record in the league corporate knowledge? That corporate knowledge?

[MultiTroll]

No Sniffers, just NO!
We're moving fwd with Championship pursuits.
Here's what Pops Pets gets you:
https://clips.clippit.tv/lwxqyx/360.mp4

Spurs don't foul for some dumb reason in the final seconds of Game 7 loss to Nuggets (thecomeback.com)

[timvp]

Of course not, that's why I found this thread so crazy. I thought I was way off on contract values, but no, folks are just overvaluing the heck out of Jones, starting from timvp.

We'll see what he ends up getting. I think some of the disconnect when talking salaries is that the salary cap is growing so quickly that it messes with the frame of reference. The salary cap is twice what it was in 2014 and is all but guaranteed to grow at a compounded rate of 10% for the foreseeable future. To put this back into Spurs contending era terms, the contract options I laid out for Jones has less impact on today's cap than the 4-year, $14 million Matt Bonner signed back in 2010. It's difficult to visualize but a $40 million contract is 2023 is equivalent to like a $12 million contract in 2010 when you factor in cap inflation, expected cap growth and the differences in the CBA from then to now.

[Seventyniner]

It's dishonest to portray Tre as fighting for minutes with Wesley. It just is. It doesn't matter if me saying that offends you. I didn't say you were a bad person or disingenuous poster. But your comment was a dishonest way of phrasing a situation in an attempt to dismiss my argument for why Tre can ask for more money than Tyus got. Memphis wasn't going to give Tyus a big deal to back up their superstar. The Spurs may have a hard time trying to convince their starting PG to take backup money if they don't intend to start anyone over him.

You're riding with the idea if the Spurs should compare Tre to other guards in terms of skills and just sign Tre to whatever value matches that. But that's not how it works. Tre's representation is going to try to get him as much as they can, and the Spurs will have to balance out giving him enough money with the risk of losing him, or at least alienating him if they use their RoFR to suppress offers that might at least give him a chance to go to a better situation. I think they should take that chance, but I suspect they'll pay him low-end starter money on a shorter deal. That's not $10 Million a year or less in today's NBA. If they get him for less then I'll be wrong, but I won't be sad.

I think this idea that Tre will want to be paid like a starter is exactly why the Spurs will let him go to restricted free agency. The teams with cap space aren't going to be paying him like a starter if they sign him, saving the Spurs from having to do so.

[Seventyniner]

We'll see what he ends up getting. I think some of the disconnect when talking salaries is that the salary cap is growing so quickly that it messes with the frame of reference. The salary cap is twice what it was in 2014 and is all but guaranteed to grow at a compounded rate of 10% for the foreseeable future. To put this back into Spurs contending era terms, the contract options I laid out for Jones has less impact on today's cap than the 4-year, $14 million Matt Bonner signed back in 2010. It's difficult to visualize but a $40 million contract is 2023 is equivalent to like a $12 million contract in 2010 when you factor in cap inflation, expected cap growth and the differences in the CBA from then to now.

It's very easy to think of flat dollar amounts when comparing contracts in different years, let alone eras, but % of the cap used is a far better metric.

Even that isn't as useful now, because as you point out the cap will be going up 10% each year for the next several years. Even if Tre gets a flat 4/44 deal, the cap will be almost 50% higher in 2027 as it is now (10% per year compounded 4 times).

[Extra Stout]

I don't know if sarcastic but just in case, what corporate knowledge? 2nd worst record in the league corporate knowledge? That corporate knowledge?

he put his heart and soul into the tank. he would run through a wall for this team. the spurs aren’t the kind of organization that would do that to their win shares leader. what would that say to future second round picks? he’ll play so much better next to wemby.